<p>如果对市场上许多热门股票的高估值感到犹豫不决，你并不孤单。许多投资者在观望，担心市场调整，同时又担心错过进一步上涨的机会。</p>
<p>解决方案是：稍微偏离一下主流市场。市场的整体高估值主要集中在与人工智能（AI）行业相关的大型美国科技公司。其他大多数股票在各个地方仍然相对可负担，其中许多公司都是引人注目的增长潜力。</p>
<p><strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>（BABA 8.08%）是这些公司中最优秀的之一，原因有四个。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI2MjEvaW52ZXN0aW5nLXNjcmVlbi1hbmFseXNpcy1pbnZlc3Rvci1ncm93dGgtc3RvY2tzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI2MjEvaW52ZXN0aW5nLXNjcmVlbi1hbmFseXNpcy1pbnZlc3Rvci1ncm93dGgtc3RvY2tzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>它的业务范围广泛</h2>
<p>你所熟知的阿里巴巴，就是中国在线购物平台天猫和淘宝的母公司，这两个平台共同占据了中国电商市场约 40% 的份额。你可能也熟悉它的 AliExpress，它将中国制造商与海外消费者连接起来。</p>
<p>然后还有你不太了解的阿里巴巴。该公司还管理着一个规模可观的云计算业务，正在深入人工智能领域，一个类似 YouTube 的流媒体视频平台优酷，一个名为菜鸟的物流部门，以及在医疗、通信、健身和现场娱乐行业的业务。</p>
<p>在许多方面，它就像北美的 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，利用其在多种业务中的影响力，将消费者引入一个更大的生态系统。</p>
<h2>而且它在不断扩展这个网络</h2>
<p>当然，如果任何一个利润中心的增长机会都很糟糕，那么经营多个互补的利润中心也没有意义。幸运的是，阿里巴巴最重要的市场正面临良好的增长前景。</p>
<p>一些投资者可能会不同意，指出上个月中国的出口疲软，紧随其后的是 7 月份令人失望的零售销售。同时，中国的房地产市场仍在挣扎，价格仍处于多年低点。</p>
<p>现在退一步看更大的图景。虽然 8 月份中国对美国的出口可能有所下降，但同比仍增长了 4.4%——只是从 7 月份炙手可热的 7.2% 增长速度回落。</p>
<p>7 月份中国的零售销售同比也增长了 3.7%，仅仅低于分析师对 4.6% 增长的预期，这一预期是基于 5 月和 6 月异常强劲的消费支出。请记住，去年中期中国的零售支出异常低迷，为今年的夸张增长奠定了基础。</p>
<p>还要记住，7 月份中国的工业产出同比增长了 5.7%，在 6 月份增长 6.8% 的情况下，似乎并未受到房地产问题的影响。</p>
<p>关键是，尽管中国经济的某些部分可能会遇到短期的逆风，但总体上其实表现得相当不错——根据路透社的报道，当前季度的整体经济增长率为 4.5%，预计第四季度将增长 4%。这比近期的增长率慢，但仍然稳健，当然也比世界其他大部分地区，包括美国的经济增长要好。</p>
<p>在一定程度上，经济逆风可能会抑制中国消费者支出，而这对阿里巴巴至关重要，但它们似乎并未影响市场的在线部分。尼尔森 IQ 报告称，尽管中国快速消费品的整体销售在第二季度仅增长了 3.4%，但这些商品的在线销售同比飙升了 16.2%。</p>
<h2>它正在为引领中国在全球 AI 市场的份额而布局</h2>
<p>尽管消费者支出可能是阿里巴巴目前最大的收入驱动因素，但人工智能的崛起以及对云计算解决方案的需求，可能使这一部门成为公司增长最快、最盈利的业务。阿里巴巴的云业务在今年第二季度增长了公司领先的 26%。</p>
<p>然而，最好的可能还在后头。</p>
<p>你看，该公司不仅在服务中国的人工智能行业。它还在从零开始帮助构建这个行业。阿里巴巴的 AI 聊天应用 Qwen，类似于 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，将与在中国销售的 <strong>苹果</strong>iPhone 原生兼容，或许会建立一个其他面向消费者的科技公司也会复制的商业关系。Qwen 还能够满足阿里巴巴第三方在线卖家的商业需求。</p>
<p>该公司甚至正在开发自己的高性能计算处理器，作为北京鼓励的努力的一部分，以减少对 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>英特尔</strong> 等美国半导体公司的依赖。</p>
<p>也不要低估中国集体发展自身人工智能产业的能力，既用于自身，也用于向国境以外的客户营销。正如 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 分析师最近指出的，中国本土的人工智能努力正在 “唤醒一头沉睡的巨人”。顺便提一下，摩根士丹利的分析师还补充说，人工智能的使用可能在未来两到三年内为中国的 GDP 增长率增加 20 到 30 个基点，推动消费者支出超出当前预期。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴当然在这一增长的各个方面都处于良好的位置。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴的股票出奇地便宜</h2>
<p>也许这个故事中最令人惊讶的部分是什么？你可以以微不足道的价格投资这个不断增长的电子商务和人工智能巨头。与像 Nvidia 或软件巨头 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 这样估值高昂的股票不同，阿里巴巴的股票（技术上是美国存托凭证）目前的价格不到明年预期收益的 20 倍，尽管预计明年其营收和净利润增长将在经历今年的小幅停滞后加速。</p>
<p>分析师们认为阿里巴巴的股票便宜。目前的共识目标价为 164.63 美元，比该股票最近的价格高出 13%。这并不是一个巨大的差异，但由于上周该股票在财报发布后的巨大上涨，这一差距几乎减半。一旦分析师有机会全面评估其第二季度报告并对其观点做出任何乐观的调整，不要惊讶于这个平均目标价的逐步上升。</p>

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>这篇文章讨论了投资阿里巴巴集团（BABA）的四个有力理由，强调其多元化的商业模式，包括电子商务、云计算和人工智能。尽管对中国经济挑战的担忧，阿里巴巴仍然具备增长潜力，特别是在在线销售和人工智能发展方面。阿里巴巴的云业务正在快速扩展，其人工智能项目，如 Qwen 聊天应用，预计将提升其市场地位。分析师指出，中国的人工智能产业正在崛起，为阿里巴巴带来了重大机遇</p>

<p>If steep valuations for many of the market's most popular stocks have you wary of stepping into any of them, you're not alone. Plenty of investors are on the sidelines here, fearing a correction, yet simultaneously worried about missing out on more upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果对市场上许多热门股票的高估值感到犹豫不决，你并不孤单。许多投资者在观望，担心市场调整，同时又担心错过进一步上涨的机会。</p>
</div><p>There is a solution: Just look a bit off the beaten path. The market's outrageous overall valuation is largely limited to massive U.S. technology companies with exposure to the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. Most everything else, everywhere else, is still reasonably affordable, with many of these names being compelling growth prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解决方案是：稍微偏离一下主流市场。市场的整体高估值主要集中在与人工智能（AI）行业相关的大型美国科技公司。其他大多数股票在各个地方仍然相对可负担，其中许多公司都是引人注目的增长潜力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Alibaba Group</strong>(BABA 8.08%) is one of the best of the best of these other names, for four specific reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>（BABA 8.08%）是这些公司中最优秀的之一，原因有四个。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI2MjEvaW52ZXN0aW5nLXNjcmVlbi1hbmFseXNpcy1pbnZlc3Rvci1ncm93dGgtc3RvY2tzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832621%2Finvesting-screen-analysis-investor-growth-stocks.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It casts a wide net</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>它的业务范围广泛</h2>
</div><p>There's the Alibaba you know. That's the parent to China's online shopping platforms Tmall and Taobao, which collectively account for about 40% of China's total e-commerce. You may also be familiar with its AliExpress, which connects China's manufacturers with overseas consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你所熟知的阿里巴巴，就是中国在线购物平台天猫和淘宝的母公司，这两个平台共同占据了中国电商市场约 40% 的份额。你可能也熟悉它的 AliExpress，它将中国制造商与海外消费者连接起来。</p>
</div><p>Then there's the Alibaba you <em>don't</em> know. The company also manages a sizable cloud computing business that's wading deeper into artificial intelligence, a YouTube-like streaming video platform known as YouKu, a logistics arm called Cainiao, and businesses in the healthcare, communications, fitness, and live entertainment industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后还有你不太了解的阿里巴巴。该公司还管理着一个规模可观的云计算业务，正在深入人工智能领域，一个类似 YouTube 的流媒体视频平台优酷，一个名为菜鸟的物流部门，以及在医疗、通信、健身和现场娱乐行业的业务。</p>
</div><p>In many ways it's like <strong>Amazon</strong> in North America, leveraging its reach into several different kinds of businesses to funnel consumers into a much larger ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在许多方面，它就像北美的 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，利用其在多种业务中的影响力，将消费者引入一个更大的生态系统。</p>
</div><h2>And it's casting that net in an ever-expanding ocean</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>而且它在不断扩展这个网络</h2>
</div><p>Operating several complementary profit centers doesn't do any good if the opportunity for growth for any of them is lousy, of course. Fortunately, Alibaba's most important market is facing solid growth prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，如果任何一个利润中心的增长机会都很糟糕，那么经营多个互补的利润中心也没有意义。幸运的是，阿里巴巴最重要的市场正面临良好的增长前景。</p>
</div><p>Some investors might disagree, pointing to last month's weak exports (from China) following the country's disappointing retail sales in July. Meanwhile, China's real estate market continues to struggle, with prices still making multiyear lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者可能会不同意，指出上个月中国的出口疲软，紧随其后的是 7 月份令人失望的零售销售。同时，中国的房地产市场仍在挣扎，价格仍处于多年低点。</p>
</div><p>Now take a step back and look at the bigger picture. China's exports to the United States in August may have fallen, in a manner of speaking, but they were still up 4.4% year over year -- they simply fell from July's red-hot growth pace of 7.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在退一步看更大的图景。虽然 8 月份中国对美国的出口可能有所下降，但同比仍增长了 4.4%——只是从 7 月份炙手可热的 7.2% 增长速度回落。</p>
</div><p>July's retail sales in China were also up a solid 3.7% year over year, merely falling short of analysts' estimates for 4.6% growth based on unusually strong consumer spending in May and June. Just bear in mind that China's retail spending in the middle of last year was unusually light, setting the stage for exaggerated growth this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月份中国的零售销售同比也增长了 3.7%，仅仅低于分析师对 4.6% 增长的预期，这一预期是基于 5 月和 6 月异常强劲的消费支出。请记住，去年中期中国的零售支出异常低迷，为今年的夸张增长奠定了基础。</p>
</div><p>Also remember that China's industrial output improved 5.7% year over year in July, after growing 6.8% in June, seemingly unfazed by real estate woes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还要记住，7 月份中国的工业产出同比增长了 5.7%，在 6 月份增长 6.8% 的情况下，似乎并未受到房地产问题的影响。</p>
</div><p>The point is, while some parts of China's economy may be bumping into an occasional short-lived headwind, on balance it's actually doing pretty well -- well enough to drive overall economic growth of 4.5% in the quarter currently underway, according to Reuters, followed by 4% growth in Q4. That's slower than recent growth rates, but still solid, and certainly still more economic growth than you'll find in most other corners of the world, including within the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键是，尽管中国经济的某些部分可能会遇到短期的逆风，但总体上其实表现得相当不错——根据路透社的报道，当前季度的整体经济增长率为 4.5%，预计第四季度将增长 4%。这比近期的增长率慢，但仍然稳健，当然也比世界其他大部分地区，包括美国的经济增长要好。</p>
</div><p>To the extent that economic headwinds <em>might</em> stifle China's consumer spending, which is so important to Alibaba, they don't appear to be affecting the online sliver of the market. Nielsen IQ reports that while China's sales of fast-moving consumer goods improved a ho-hum 3.4% overall in Q2, online sales of these goods soared 16.2% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一定程度上，经济逆风可能会抑制中国消费者支出，而这对阿里巴巴至关重要，但它们似乎并未影响市场的在线部分。尼尔森 IQ 报告称，尽管中国快速消费品的整体销售在第二季度仅增长了 3.4%，但这些商品的在线销售同比飙升了 16.2%。</p>
</div><h2>It's positioning to lead China's piece of the global AI market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>它正在为引领中国在全球 AI 市场的份额而布局</h2>
</div><p>Although consumer spending may be Alibaba's biggest revenue driver right now, the rise of artificial intelligence -- and the subsequent demand for cloud computing solutions -- could make this arm the company's fastest-growing and most profitable venture. Alibaba's cloud business grew a company-leading 26% during the second quarter of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管消费者支出可能是阿里巴巴目前最大的收入驱动因素，但人工智能的崛起以及对云计算解决方案的需求，可能使这一部门成为公司增长最快、最盈利的业务。阿里巴巴的云业务在今年第二季度增长了公司领先的 26%。</p>
</div><p>The best, however, may be yet to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最好的可能还在后头。</p>
</div><p>See, the company's not just serving China's artificial intelligence industry. It's helping build it from the ground up. Alibaba's AI-powered chat app, Qwen, which is comparable to OpenAI's ChatGPT, will natively work with <strong>Apple</strong>'s iPhones sold in China, perhaps establishing a business relationship that will be replicated by other consumer-facing technology outfits. Qwen is also capable of meeting the business needs of Alibaba's third-party online sellers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，该公司不仅在服务中国的人工智能行业。它还在从零开始帮助构建这个行业。阿里巴巴的 AI 聊天应用 Qwen，类似于 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，将与在中国销售的 <strong>苹果</strong>iPhone 原生兼容，或许会建立一个其他面向消费者的科技公司也会复制的商业关系。Qwen 还能够满足阿里巴巴第三方在线卖家的商业需求。</p>
</div><p>The company's even building its own high-performance computer processor as part of a Beijing-encouraged effort to wean itself from dependence on technology made by American semiconductor outfits like <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Intel</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司甚至正在开发自己的高性能计算处理器，作为北京鼓励的努力的一部分，以减少对 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>英特尔</strong> 等美国半导体公司的依赖。</p>
</div><p>Don't dismiss China's collective ability to develop its own artificial intelligence industry, either, to use itself and to market to customers beyond the country's own borders. As <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> analysts recently noted of China's homegrown AI efforts, &#34;a sleeping giant awakens.&#34; And by the way, Morgan Stanley's analysts add that the use of artificial intelligence could add between 20 and 30 basis points to China's GDP growth rate over the next two to three years, spurring consumer spending more than is currently expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也不要低估中国集体发展自身人工智能产业的能力，既用于自身，也用于向国境以外的客户营销。正如 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 分析师最近指出的，中国本土的人工智能努力正在 “唤醒一头沉睡的巨人”。顺便提一下，摩根士丹利的分析师还补充说，人工智能的使用可能在未来两到三年内为中国的 GDP 增长率增加 20 到 30 个基点，推动消费者支出超出当前预期。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba is, of course, well positioned to feature prominently in all aspects of this growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴当然在这一增长的各个方面都处于良好的位置。</p>
</div><h2>Alibaba stock is surprisingly cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴的股票出奇地便宜</h2>
</div><p>Perhaps the most surprising part of the story? You can buy into this growing e-commerce and artificial intelligence powerhouse for little more than a song. Unlike steeply valued stocks like Nvidia or software giant <strong>Microsoft</strong>, Alibaba shares (technically American depositary receipts) are currently priced at less than 20 times next year's expected earnings, despite the anticipated acceleration of its top- and bottom-line growth next year following this year's slight lull.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许这个故事中最令人惊讶的部分是什么？你可以以微不足道的价格投资这个不断增长的电子商务和人工智能巨头。与像 Nvidia 或软件巨头 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 这样估值高昂的股票不同，阿里巴巴的股票（技术上是美国存托凭证）目前的价格不到明年预期收益的 20 倍，尽管预计明年其营收和净利润增长将在经历今年的小幅停滞后加速。</p>
</div><p>The analyst community thinks Alibaba is cheap, anyway. Its current consensus target of $164.63 stands 13% above the ticker's recent price. That's not a huge difference, but the gap was nearly halved by last week's massive post-earnings surge from the stock. Don't be surprised if this average target inches upward once analysts have a chance to fully assess its second-quarter report and make any bullish changes to their opinions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们认为阿里巴巴的股票便宜。目前的共识目标价为 164.63 美元，比该股票最近的价格高出 13%。这并不是一个巨大的差异，但由于上周该股票在财报发布后的巨大上涨，这一差距几乎减半。一旦分析师有机会全面评估其第二季度报告并对其观点做出任何乐观的调整，不要惊讶于这个平均目标价的逐步上升。</p>
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4 Reasons to Buy Alibaba Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

- 阿里巴巴在中国电商市场占据约 40% 的份额，业务多元化。  
- 尽管中国经济面临挑战，阿里巴巴的云计算和 AI 业务仍在快速增长。  
- 当前阿里巴巴股价低于预期收益的 20 倍，分析师认为其估值便宜。  

购买阿里巴巴股票的四个理由：抓住机会，莫失良机