<p>汽车巨头 <strong>特斯拉公司 NASDAQ: TSLA</strong> 的股价在周三收于 350 美元以下，继续经历乏善可陈的几天。尽管上个月突破了其旗形图案，但自 5 月以来，股价基本持平，看起来疲态尽显。</p>
<p>对于多头来说，反复未能突破 360 美元的失败开始累积，成为股价的负担。过去几个月，这一水平多次充当强劲阻力，每次拒绝都削弱了市场信心。</p>
<p>挫败感正在加剧，关于特斯拉在美国市场份额的最新报告几乎不会缓解这种担忧。</p>
<p>对于一只 <strong>市盈率接近 200 倍的股票</strong>，原本看似强劲的年末表现现在变得有些不切实际。投资者在思考：这里还有机会吗，还是该准备离场？</p>
<h2>市场份额下滑引发警惕</h2>
<p>本周早些时候的一份研究报告引发了广泛关注。根据 Cox Automotive 的数据，特斯拉在美国的市场份额 <strong>在 8 月份降至 38%</strong>，首次跌破 40% 大关。这代表着该公司自 2017 年以来的八年低点，曾经占据市场 80% 以上的份额。</p>
<p>尽管特斯拉以电动车（EV）领导者的身份建立了品牌，但竞争对手迅速崛起，推出了新车型，而特斯拉的车型开始显得老旧。</p>
<p>更广泛的行业仍在扩张，分析师预计美国电动车销售将在 9 月份继续增长。但随着联邦税收抵免在本月底到期，这一利好因素可能会迅速消退。</p>
<p>对于特斯拉而言，已经不得不在中国降价以捍卫其市场地位，额外的逆风风险可能会继续侵蚀其利润和利润率。</p>
<p>更令人不安的是，该公司备受期待的机器人出租车发布似乎未能如预期般成功。夏季在奥斯汀的有限推出远未达到许多人所期待的广泛颠覆。乐观情绪已降温，随着完全自动驾驶距离监管批准仍然遥远，特斯拉不再看起来是自动驾驶领域的绝对领导者。</p>
<p>每月数据的悲观情绪对市场情绪造成了沉重打击，这对特斯拉这样的高估值公司来说是危险的。</p>
<h2>技术面看起来脆弱</h2>
<h3>特斯拉公司 (TSLA) 2025 年 9 月 12 日的价格图表</h3>
<p>从技术角度来看，特斯拉的股票现在走在一条绳索上。反复未能突破 360 美元的失败，回到夏季之前，正在形成一种买家想要放弃的局面。如果发生这种情况，回调至 320 美元的抛售看起来很可能，而 4 月份的上升趋势线将作为第一道防线。</p>
<p>然而，如果这一防线失效，300 美元将成为关键，此时所有的赌注都可能失效。考虑到这只股票一直是基于明天会比今天更好的承诺而建立其反弹，其历史记录显示，如果空头控制局面，它可能会像石头一样下沉。</p>
<p>换句话说， <strong>特斯拉迫切需要一个新的催化剂</strong>。如果没有积极的消息，无论是更强的销售、自动驾驶的监管胜利，还是重大产品更新，风险都倾向于更深的回调。投资者已经习惯于看到特斯拉在下跌后迅速反弹，但这次的局势无疑更加脆弱。</p>
<h2>分析师仍然看好未来</h2>
<p>尽管风险不断增加，但并非所有人都准备放弃特斯拉。事实上，华尔街的一些大牌仍然看好该股。</p>
<p>例如，就在上周，摩根士丹利和 Stifel Nicolaus 重申了对该股的增持评级，<strong>目标价在 400 美元以上</strong>。Stifel 尤其乐观，认为特斯拉有可能上涨至 440 美元，意味着从当前水平大约有 25% 的上涨空间。</p>
<p>这种分析师的信心很重要。它反映出特斯拉在自动驾驶、机器人和能源存储等领域的长期选择性，仍然使其成为一个独特的增长故事。尽管目前感觉缓慢，但潜在的回报可能足够大，以保持投资者的参与。</p>
<p>挑战在于，基本面在短期内正在恶化，使得股票看起来被高估。在情况没有改变之前，投资者谨慎行事是正确的。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在特斯拉吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑特斯拉之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而特斯拉并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然特斯拉目前在分析师中获得了持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>查看这五只股票的详情</p>

摩根士丹利

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉在美国的市场份额已降至 38%，创下八年来的新低，这引发了人们的担忧，因为该股在突破 360 美元时遇到困难。分析师们意见不一；一些人因基本面恶化而表示谨慎，而摩根士丹利和 Stifel Nicolaus 等则保持乐观，目标价在 400 美元以上。公司面临日益激烈的竞争以及机器人出租车推出的挑战，这导致人们担心利润率进一步下降。投资者在该股的技术面看起来脆弱的情况下，面临是否持有或退出的困惑</p>

<p>Shares of automotive giant <strong>Tesla Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA</strong> closed just under $350 on Wednesday, continuing a lackluster couple of sessions. The stock looks tired and is essentially flat since May despite a breakout from its pennant pattern last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汽车巨头 <strong>特斯拉公司 NASDAQ: TSLA</strong> 的股价在周三收于 350 美元以下，继续经历乏善可陈的几天。尽管上个月突破了其旗形图案，但自 5 月以来，股价基本持平，看起来疲态尽显。</p>
</div><p>For the bulls, the repeated failures to punch through $360 are starting to add up and become a weight around the stock's neck. That level has acted as stiff resistance several times over the past few months, and every rejection chips away at confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于多头来说，反复未能突破 360 美元的失败开始累积，成为股价的负担。过去几个月，这一水平多次充当强劲阻力，每次拒绝都削弱了市场信心。</p>
</div><p>Frustration is mounting, and the latest reports on Tesla's U.S. market share will do little to ease concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挫败感正在加剧，关于特斯拉在美国市场份额的最新报告几乎不会缓解这种担忧。</p>
</div><p>For a stock still <strong>valued at close to 200x earnings</strong>, what was looking likely to be a strong end to the year is now a bit of a pipedream. Investors are wondering: is there still an opportunity here, or is it time to head for the exit?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于一只 <strong>市盈率接近 200 倍的股票</strong>，原本看似强劲的年末表现现在变得有些不切实际。投资者在思考：这里还有机会吗，还是该准备离场？</p>
</div><h2>Market Share Slide Raises Red Flags</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场份额下滑引发警惕</h2>
</div><p>A research report from earlier this week is causing much concern. According to Cox Automotive, Tesla's U.S. market share <strong>dropped to 38% in August</strong>, slipping below the 40% mark for the first time since 2017. That represents an eight-year low for a company that once dominated over 80% of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周早些时候的一份研究报告引发了广泛关注。根据 Cox Automotive 的数据，特斯拉在美国的市场份额 <strong>在 8 月份降至 38%</strong>，首次跌破 40% 大关。这代表着该公司自 2017 年以来的八年低点，曾经占据市场 80% 以上的份额。</p>
</div><p>While Tesla has built its brand on being the leader in electric vehicles (EVs), rivals are rapidly gaining ground with fresh lineups while Tesla's models begin to show their age.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉以电动车（EV）领导者的身份建立了品牌，但竞争对手迅速崛起，推出了新车型，而特斯拉的车型开始显得老旧。</p>
</div><p>The broader industry is still expanding, with analysts expecting U.S. EV sales to rise through September. But with federal tax credits expiring at the end of the month, that tailwind could quickly fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的行业仍在扩张，分析师预计美国电动车销售将在 9 月份继续增长。但随着联邦税收抵免在本月底到期，这一利好因素可能会迅速消退。</p>
</div><p>For Tesla, which has already had to cut prices in China to defend its position against competition, the risk is that additional headwinds like this will only continue to erode its margins and profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于特斯拉而言，已经不得不在中国降价以捍卫其市场地位，额外的逆风风险可能会继续侵蚀其利润和利润率。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the unease, the company's highly anticipated robotaxi launch seems to have fallen flat. A limited rollout in Austin over the summer was far from the sweeping disruption many had expected. Optimism has cooled, and with full self-driving still far from regulatory approval, Tesla no longer looks like the runaway leader in autonomy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人不安的是，该公司备受期待的机器人出租车发布似乎未能如预期般成功。夏季在奥斯汀的有限推出远未达到许多人所期待的广泛颠覆。乐观情绪已降温，随着完全自动驾驶距离监管批准仍然遥远，特斯拉不再看起来是自动驾驶领域的绝对领导者。</p>
</div><p>The monthly numbers' doom and gloom weigh heavily on sentiment, and that's dangerous for a company with Tesla's valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每月数据的悲观情绪对市场情绪造成了沉重打击，这对特斯拉这样的高估值公司来说是危险的。</p>
</div><h2>Technical Picture Looks Fragile</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技术面看起来脆弱</h2>
</div><h3>Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Price Chart for Friday, September, 12, 2025</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>特斯拉公司 (TSLA) 2025 年 9 月 12 日的价格图表</h3>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, Tesla's stock is now walking a tightrope. The repeated failures at $360, returning to before the summer, are setting up a scenario where buyers just want to throw in the towel. If that happens, a selloff back toward $320 looks likely, with the rising uptrend from April acting as the first line of defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，特斯拉的股票现在走在一条绳索上。反复未能突破 360 美元的失败，回到夏季之前，正在形成一种买家想要放弃的局面。如果发生这种情况，回调至 320 美元的抛售看起来很可能，而 4 月份的上升趋势线将作为第一道防线。</p>
</div><p>However, should that fail, $300 comes into play, and at that point, all bets could be off. Given that this stock has always built its rallies on the promise of tomorrow being better than today, its track record shows it can sink like a stone if the bears take control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果这一防线失效，300 美元将成为关键，此时所有的赌注都可能失效。考虑到这只股票一直是基于明天会比今天更好的承诺而建立其反弹，其历史记录显示，如果空头控制局面，它可能会像石头一样下沉。</p>
</div><p>In other words, <strong>Tesla badly needs a fresh catalyst</strong>. Without positive news, whether in the form of stronger sales, regulatory wins for self-driving, or a significant product update, the risk is skewed toward a deeper pullback. Investors have grown used to seeing Tesla bounce back quickly from dips, but the setup is undoubtedly more fragile this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说， <strong>特斯拉迫切需要一个新的催化剂</strong>。如果没有积极的消息，无论是更强的销售、自动驾驶的监管胜利，还是重大产品更新，风险都倾向于更深的回调。投资者已经习惯于看到特斯拉在下跌后迅速反弹，但这次的局势无疑更加脆弱。</p>
</div><h2>Analysts Still See Big Upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析师仍然看好未来</h2>
</div><p>Despite the mounting risks, not everyone is ready to give up on Tesla. In fact, some of Wall Street's biggest names remain bullish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管风险不断增加，但并非所有人都准备放弃特斯拉。事实上，华尔街的一些大牌仍然看好该股。</p>
</div><p>Just last week, for example, Morgan Stanley and Stifel Nicolaus reiterated their Overweight ratings on the stock, with <strong>price targets above $400</strong>. Stifel is particularly optimistic and sees room for Tesla to rally as high as $440, implying roughly 25% upside from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，就在上周，摩根士丹利和 Stifel Nicolaus 重申了对该股的增持评级，<strong>目标价在 400 美元以上</strong>。Stifel 尤其乐观，认为特斯拉有可能上涨至 440 美元，意味着从当前水平大约有 25% 的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>That kind of analyst conviction matters. It reflects that Tesla's long-term optionality, from autonomy to robotics and energy storage, still makes it a unique growth story. While things feel sluggish, the potential payoff is likely big enough to keep investors engaged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种分析师的信心很重要。它反映出特斯拉在自动驾驶、机器人和能源存储等领域的长期选择性，仍然使其成为一个独特的增长故事。尽管目前感觉缓慢，但潜在的回报可能足够大，以保持投资者的参与。</p>
</div><p>The challenge is that the fundamentals are deteriorating in the near term, making the stock look stretched. Until something changes, investors are right to be cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挑战在于，基本面在短期内正在恶化，使得股票看起来被高估。在情况没有改变之前，投资者谨慎行事是正确的。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Tesla Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在特斯拉吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Tesla, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑特斯拉之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Tesla wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而特斯拉并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Tesla currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特斯拉目前在分析师中获得了持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票的详情</p>
</div>

Tesla's U.S. Market Is At An 8-Year Low... How Bad Could It Get?

- 特斯拉股价接近 $350，近期表现平平，未能突破 $360 阻力位。  
- 8 月市场份额降至 38%，为八年来最低，竞争对手迅速崛起。  
- 分析师仍看好特斯拉，目标价在 $400 以上，但短期基本面恶化。  

特斯拉在美国市场的表现已降至 8 年来的最低点……情况可能会有多糟糕？