<p>穆迪分析首席经济学家 <strong>马克·赞迪</strong> 表示，尽管通胀高于目标，但美联储下周更可能降息，原因是劳动力市场停滞不前以及衰退风险上升。</p>
<h2><strong>消费者物价指数为 2.9%，仍高于美联储目标</strong></h2>
<p>在周四的 <strong>消费者物价指数</strong> 发布前，赞迪在 CNBC 上指出，2.9% 的整体 CPI 仍然 “高于美联储的目标”，因为中央银行关注的个人消费支出指数通常较低。</p>
<p>“如果你在 2.9，那就比应该的水平高出大约半个百分点，” 他说。</p>
<p>尽管如此，赞迪强调，疲软的就业数据可能会超过对通胀的担忧。</p>
<p>“就业市场现在真的处于停滞状态。就业增长充其量是持平。我认为这将占据主导地位……这就是我们将会降息的原因，” 他解释道。</p>
<h2><strong>CPI 走软可能为美联储更大幅度降息打开大门</strong></h2>
<p>如果 CPI 低于预期，赞迪建议市场可能会开始定价更激进的举措。</p>
<p>“如果它走软……这可能表明通胀不会是人们所担心的问题……你可能会看到反弹，” 他说，并补充说美联储甚至可能考虑降息 50 个基点。</p>
<p>赞迪还强调，美联储密切关注债券收益率，而债券收益率已经大幅下降。“债券市场是投资者思考事物的信号……美联储官员非常关注正在发生的事情，” 他说。</p>
<h2>赞迪警告就业衰退和上升的衰退风险</h2>
<p>美国劳动力市场显示出明显的疲软迹象，赞迪警告经济正处于衰退边缘。</p>
<p>本月早些时候，他将这一下滑描述为 “劳动力衰退”，指出 6 月的修订显示自 2020 年以来首次出现劳动力缩减，并警告即将到来的基准修订可能显示更深层次的失业。</p>
<p>赞迪指出，失业正在出现，而裁员并没有激增，这增加了如果企业开始裁员，经济可能出现更广泛下滑的风险。</p>
<p>他将这种情况比作 “悬崖边缘”，表示经济危险地接近崩溃。</p>
<p>他在 <strong>X</strong> 上重申，美国已经进入了就业衰退，因为招聘停滞，经济动能减弱。</p>
<p>上个月，他还强调了地区压力，近三分之一的美国 GDP 集中在高风险衰退的州，而华盛顿特区因联邦裁员受到严重打击。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Netflix 或许在《KPop Demon Hunters》的成功中沐浴，但在一个欧洲国家却陷入麻烦</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审阅和发布。</em></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

穆迪

<p>穆迪首席经济学家马克·赞迪警告称，尽管通胀率为 2.9%，高于目标水平，但美联储可能在下周降息。他指出，停滞的劳动力市场和上升的衰退风险是关键因素。赞迪建议，如果即将发布的消费者物价指数报告低于预期，可能会导致更激进的降息。他强调了劳动力市场的疲软，指出可能出现 “就业衰退”，并警告如果失业人数持续增加而没有裁员，可能会导致更广泛的经济下滑。赞迪强调了债券收益率在美联储决策过程中的重要性</p>

<p>Moody's Analytics Chief Economist <strong>Mark Zandi</strong> said the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut rates next week despite inflation running above target, citing a stalled labor market and rising recession risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪分析首席经济学家 <strong>马克·赞迪</strong> 表示，尽管通胀高于目标，但美联储下周更可能降息，原因是劳动力市场停滞不前以及衰退风险上升。</p>
</div><h2><strong>CPI At 2.9%, Still Above Fed Target</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>消费者物价指数为 2.9%，仍高于美联储目标</strong></h2>
</div><p>Speaking on CNBC ahead of Thursday's <strong>consumer price index</strong> release, Zandi noted that headline CPI at 2.9% remains &#34;above the Fed's target,&#34; given that the central bank tracks the personal consumption expenditures index, which typically runs lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周四的 <strong>消费者物价指数</strong> 发布前，赞迪在 CNBC 上指出，2.9% 的整体 CPI 仍然 “高于美联储的目标”，因为中央银行关注的个人消费支出指数通常较低。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If you’re at 2.9, it’s about a half a point above what it should be,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果你在 2.9，那就比应该的水平高出大约半个百分点，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Still, Zandi stressed that weakening jobs data will likely outweigh concerns about inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，赞迪强调，疲软的就业数据可能会超过对通胀的担忧。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Job market is really now at a standstill. Job growth is flat at best. And I think that's going to win the day … that's why we're going to get the rate cuts,&#34; he explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“就业市场现在真的处于停滞状态。就业增长充其量是持平。我认为这将占据主导地位……这就是我们将会降息的原因，” 他解释道。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Softer CPI Could Open Door To Bigger Fed Cut</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>CPI 走软可能为美联储更大幅度降息打开大门</strong></h2>
</div><p>If CPI comes in softer than expected, Zandi suggested markets could begin pricing in a more aggressive move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 CPI 低于预期，赞迪建议市场可能会开始定价更激进的举措。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If it comes in on the soft side … that would suggest maybe inflation isn't going to be the deal that people fear … and you might get a rally,&#34; he said, adding the Fed could even consider a 50-basis-point cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果它走软……这可能表明通胀不会是人们所担心的问题……你可能会看到反弹，” 他说，并补充说美联储甚至可能考虑降息 50 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Zandi also underscored that the Fed closely monitors bond yields, which have declined sharply. &#34;The bond market is a signal as to how investors are thinking about things … Fed officials pay very close attention to what's going on,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赞迪还强调，美联储密切关注债券收益率，而债券收益率已经大幅下降。“债券市场是投资者思考事物的信号……美联储官员非常关注正在发生的事情，” 他说。</p>
</div><h2>Zandi Warned Of Jobs Recession And Rising Recession Risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>赞迪警告就业衰退和上升的衰退风险</h2>
</div><p>The U.S. labor market showed sharp signs of weakness and Zandi warned that the economy was on the brink of recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国劳动力市场显示出明显的疲软迹象，赞迪警告经济正处于衰退边缘。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this month, he described the downturn as a &#34;labor recession,&#34; pointing to June revisions that revealed a shrinking workforce for the first time since 2020 and cautioning that upcoming benchmark revisions could show deeper job losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候，他将这一下滑描述为 “劳动力衰退”，指出 6 月的修订显示自 2020 年以来首次出现劳动力缩减，并警告即将到来的基准修订可能显示更深层次的失业。</p>
</div><p>Zandi noted that job losses were emerging without a surge in layoffs, raising the risk of a broader economic downturn if businesses began cutting staff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赞迪指出，失业正在出现，而裁员并没有激增，这增加了如果企业开始裁员，经济可能出现更广泛下滑的风险。</p>
</div><p>He compared the situation to clinging to the &#34;edge of the cliff,&#34; saying the economy was dangerously close to tipping over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他将这种情况比作 “悬崖边缘”，表示经济危险地接近崩溃。</p>
</div><p>He reiterated on <strong>X</strong> that the U.S. had entered a jobs recession as hiring flatlined and economic momentum faded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他在 <strong>X</strong> 上重申，美国已经进入了就业衰退，因为招聘停滞，经济动能减弱。</p>
</div><p>Last month, he also highlighted regional stress, with nearly a third of U.S. GDP concentrated in states at high risk of recession and the Washington, D.C., area hit hard by federal job cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月，他还强调了地区压力，近三分之一的美国 GDP 集中在高风险衰退的州，而华盛顿特区因联邦裁员受到严重打击。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Netflix Maybe Basking In The Success Of ‘KPop Demon Hunters,’ But It’s In Trouble With A European Country</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Netflix 或许在《KPop Demon Hunters》的成功中沐浴，但在一个欧洲国家却陷入麻烦</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>免责声明：</strong> 本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审阅和发布。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Photo courtesy: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi Warns Fed Faces High Bar To Avoid Rate Cuts As Weak Jobs Trump Inflation Risks Ahead Of CPI Report

- 穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，尽管通胀高于目标，美联储下周更可能降息。  
- 他指出，CPI 为 2.9%，高于美联储目标，劳动力市场停滞和衰退风险上升。  
- 赞迪警告称，美国经济接近衰退，失业率上升可能导致更广泛的经济下滑。  

穆迪首席经济学家马克·赞迪警告，美联储面临避免降息的高门槛，因为在 CPI 报告发布前，疲弱的就业数据压倒了通胀风险