<p>让开，超人！目前唯一比火车头更强大的东西就是美国股市，它似乎比飞速的子弹还要快，已经攀升至新的高度。</p>
<p>在 9 月 11 日收盘铃声响起时，基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%)、标志性的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI -0.59%) 和依赖于成长股的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 0.44%) 都跃升至创纪录的收盘高点。从人工智能（AI）的发展——根据普华永道的预测，到 2030 年可能达到 15.7 万亿美元的全球可寻址机会——到 9 月份美联储降息的日益可能性，所有这些都激发了乐观情绪和风险投资。</p>
<p>但华尔街的棘手之处在于，当事情看起来好得令人难以置信时，通常就真的不可信。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMTYvNDkwMjkxODc3MzdfZDAzZTdmM2RkM19rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMTYvNDkwMjkxODc3MzdfZDAzZTdmM2RkM19rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>特朗普总统发表讲话。图片来源：官方白宫照片，由 Shealah Craighead 拍摄，国家档案馆提供。</p>
<p>虽然目前很多关注集中在特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策上，以及它如何通过影响通货膨胀率对美国经济产生不利影响，但根据历史告诉我们的，还有一个更为阴险的担忧在暗中潜伏。</p>
<h2>唐纳德·特朗普的关税和贸易政策备受瞩目</h2>
<p>尽管标准普尔 500 指数、道琼斯和纳斯达克综合指数年初至今大幅上涨，但在 4 月初的情况却大相径庭。在 4 月 2 日交易结束后，特朗普总统公布了他广受关注的贸易政策，其中包括 10% 的全球基础关税，以及对被认为与美国存在不利贸易失衡的数十个国家实施更高的 “对等关税”。随后的几天里，股市暴跌，标准普尔 500 指数创下自 1950 年以来的第五大两日跌幅。</p>
<p>公平地说，特朗普在 4 月 2 日公布的政策与今天实施的关税政策大相径庭。许多国家/地区已与美国达成贸易协议，总统也推迟了对部分国家实施对等关税的日期。</p>
<p>此外，特朗普的关税在法律上是否能继续存在也没有保证。今年 11 月，最高法院将考虑特朗普政府在下级法院裁定其大部分关税为非法后提出的上诉。</p>
<p>尽管存在这些不确定性，但对唐纳德·特朗普的关税和贸易政策，特别是其对通货膨胀影响的担忧加剧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4113bd47b2cdc6b395bceb998c7d9daf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4113bd47b2cdc6b395bceb998c7d9daf.png"/></p>
<p>随着总统的关税生效，国内通货膨胀率明显上升。美国通货膨胀率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>自特朗普的关税开始对美国经济产生明显影响的三个月内，消费者价格指数（CPI-U）测得的通货膨胀率从 2.35% 跃升至 2.92%。这确实是一个大幅上升，尤其是在就业市场疲软的背景下，引发了人们的关注。</p>
<p>根据四位纽约联邦储备银行经济学家在 2024 年 12 月为自由街经济学发布的研究，特朗普的关税政策最大的问题在于它未能有效区分产出关税和输入关税。</p>
<p>在他们的研究《进口关税是否保护美国企业？》中，这四位纽约联储经济学家考察了 2018-2019 年特朗普对中国关税对美国经济和企业的影响。他们发现，由于中美贸易战，国内制造商面临了更大的价格压力。产出关税是对成品征收的，而输入关税则是对用于完成美国产品制造的商品征收的关税。这种类型的关税有可能增加生产成本，并重新点燃通货膨胀的上升趋势。</p>
<p>虽然一定程度的定价权对企业来说是好事，但我们在过去三个月中目睹的通货膨胀加剧确实令人担忧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMTYvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWludmVzdC1idXktc2VsbC1mZWQtd2FsbC1zdHJlZXQtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMTYvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWludmVzdC1idXktc2VsbC1mZWQtd2FsbC1zdHJlZXQtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>华尔街的定时炸弹接近历史高位</h2>
<p>但即使唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策频频登上头条，它们也不是华尔街最大的担忧。根据历史先例，估值才是随时可能将标准普尔 500 指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数的地板抽走的定时炸弹。</p>
<p>说实话，在估值股票时并没有一刀切的蓝图。你可能认为某只股票价格昂贵，而另一位投资者却认为它是个便宜货，这正是股市存在的原因。</p>
<p>然而，有一种估值工具几乎没有解释的余地：标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率（P/E），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE）。</p>
<p>最常见的估值工具是市盈率，它将公司的股价与其过去 12 个月的每股收益（EPS）进行比较。虽然这对于成熟企业来说是一个方便的估值指标，但在经济衰退和高增长公司中往往难以奏效。标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率并不存在这个问题，因为它基于过去 10 年的平均通胀调整后每股收益。这意味着突发事件对 Shiller 市盈率的影响微乎其微。</p>
<p>经过 154 年的回测，自 1871 年 1 月以来，Shiller 市盈率的平均倍数为 17.28。截至 9 月 11 日收盘时，该倍数为 39.58，这是当前牛市期间的最高读数，也是 150 多年来持续牛市中的第三高倍数。唯一两次 CAPE 比率更高的情况是 2022 年 1 月第一周略微超过 40，以及 1999 年 12 月达到历史最高点 44.19。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c13f948abe86f0a28fe8d141e3434913.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c13f948abe86f0a28fe8d141e3434913.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 周期性调整后的市盈率。</p>
<p>诚然，S&amp;P 500 的 Shiller 市盈率并不是一个时机工具。仅仅因为股票在历史上价格昂贵，并不意味着像人工智能这样的颠覆性创新不能在几个月，甚至几年内保持估值在高位。然而，历史无疑清楚地表明，溢价估值最终会以短期灾难告终。</p>
<p>自 1871 年以来，包括现在在内，Shiller 市盈率超过 30 的情况出现过六次，每次持续至少两个月。在之前的五次中，S&amp;P 500、道琼斯工业平均指数和/或纳斯达克综合指数下跌幅度在 20% 到 89% 之间。虽然 89% 是大萧条期间道琼斯的异常值，但 50% 或更多的下跌并非不可能，正如在 2000 年代初互联网泡沫破裂时所见。</p>
<p>如果这个定时炸弹有一点积极的方面，那就是熊市在历史上通常是短暂的。</p>
<p>在 2023 年 6 月，Bespoke Investment Group 计算了自 1929 年 9 月大萧条开始以来每个 S&amp;P 500 牛市和熊市的日历天数。Bespoke 发现，27 个记录在案的 S&amp;P 500 熊市的平均持续时间仅为 286 个日历天，或不到 10 个月。相比之下，平均牛市持续了 3.5 倍的时间，即 1,011 个日历天。</p>
<p>尽管历史清楚表明华尔街正在酝酿麻烦，但长期投资者仍然掌握着主动权。</p>

<p>美国股市已达到历史新高，主要受到对人工智能的乐观情绪和潜在的美联储降息预期的推动。然而，关于特朗普总统的关税仍然存在担忧，这些关税导致了通货膨胀上升，消费者价格指数从 2.35% 上升至 2.92%。尽管关税成为焦点，分析师警告称，股市估值，特别是标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率，构成了重大风险，可能导致市场修正</p>

<p>Move over, Superman! The only thing more powerful than a locomotive at the moment is the U.S. stock market, which, seemingly faster than a speeding bullet, has rallied to new heights.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让开，超人！目前唯一比火车头更强大的东西就是美国股市，它似乎比飞速的子弹还要快，已经攀升至新的高度。</p>
</div><p>When the closing bell tolled on Sept. 11, the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%), iconic <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI -0.59%), and growth stock-dependent <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC 0.44%) all catapulted to record closing highs. Everything from the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) -- a potentially $15.7 trillion global addressable opportunity by 2030, according to PwC -- to the growing prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has fueled optimism and risk-taking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 9 月 11 日收盘铃声响起时，基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.05%)、标志性的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI -0.59%) 和依赖于成长股的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 0.44%) 都跃升至创纪录的收盘高点。从人工智能（AI）的发展——根据普华永道的预测，到 2030 年可能达到 15.7 万亿美元的全球可寻址机会——到 9 月份美联储降息的日益可能性，所有这些都激发了乐观情绪和风险投资。</p>
</div><p>But the tricky thing about Wall Street is that when things seem too good to be true, they usually are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但华尔街的棘手之处在于，当事情看起来好得令人难以置信时，通常就真的不可信。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMTYvNDkwMjkxODc3MzdfZDAzZTdmM2RkM19rLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833316%2F49029187737_d03e7f3dd3_k.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>President Trump delivering remarks. Image source: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead, courtesy of the National Archives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统发表讲话。图片来源：官方白宫照片，由 Shealah Craighead 拍摄，国家档案馆提供。</p>
</div><p>While a lot of attention is currently being paid to President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy and how it might adversely impact the U.S. economy by influencing the prevailing rate of inflation, there's a far more sinister concern waiting in the wings, based on what history tells us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然目前很多关注集中在特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策上，以及它如何通过影响通货膨胀率对美国经济产生不利影响，但根据历史告诉我们的，还有一个更为阴险的担忧在暗中潜伏。</p>
</div><h2>Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy is in the spotlight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>唐纳德·特朗普的关税和贸易政策备受瞩目</h2>
</div><p>Although the S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite have soared year to date, things looked a lot different in early April. Following the close of trading on April 2, President Trump unveiled his widely touted trade policy, which included a 10% global base tariff, as well as the implementation of higher &#34;reciprocal tariffs&#34; on dozens of countries deemed to have adverse trade imbalances with America. The stock market plunged in the subsequent days, with the S&amp;P 500 tallying its fifth-steepest two-day decline since 1950.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管标准普尔 500 指数、道琼斯和纳斯达克综合指数年初至今大幅上涨，但在 4 月初的情况却大相径庭。在 4 月 2 日交易结束后，特朗普总统公布了他广受关注的贸易政策，其中包括 10% 的全球基础关税，以及对被认为与美国存在不利贸易失衡的数十个国家实施更高的 “对等关税”。随后的几天里，股市暴跌，标准普尔 500 指数创下自 1950 年以来的第五大两日跌幅。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, what Trump unveiled on April 2 and the current tariff policies in place today look markedly different. A number of countries/regions have hashed out trade deals with America, and the president has delayed the implementation date of reciprocal tariffs for select countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，特朗普在 4 月 2 日公布的政策与今天实施的关税政策大相径庭。许多国家/地区已与美国达成贸易协议，总统也推迟了对部分国家实施对等关税的日期。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, there's no guarantee Trump's tariffs will legally remain in place. In November, the Supreme Court will consider the validity of the president's tariffs following an appeal from the Trump administration after lower courts ruled most of his tariffs were illegal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特朗普的关税在法律上是否能继续存在也没有保证。今年 11 月，最高法院将考虑特朗普政府在下级法院裁定其大部分关税为非法后提出的上诉。</p>
</div><p>Despite these uncertainties, worry about Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy, specifically pertaining to its effect on inflation, is heightened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在这些不确定性，但对唐纳德·特朗普的关税和贸易政策，特别是其对通货膨胀影响的担忧加剧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4113bd47b2cdc6b395bceb998c7d9daf.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4113bd47b2cdc6b395bceb998c7d9daf.png"/></p>
<p>The domestic rate of inflation has moved decisively higher as the president's tariffs take effect. US Inflation Rate data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着总统的关税生效，国内通货膨胀率明显上升。美国通货膨胀率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In the three months since Trump's tariffs began having a discernable impact on the U.S. economy, the inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), jumped from 2.35% to 2.92%. It's quite the jump, and it's certainly raising eyebrows amid a weakening job market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自特朗普的关税开始对美国经济产生明显影响的三个月内，消费者价格指数（CPI-U）测得的通货膨胀率从 2.35% 跃升至 2.92%。这确实是一个大幅上升，尤其是在就业市场疲软的背景下，引发了人们的关注。</p>
</div><p>The biggest issue with Trump's tariff policy, as told by four New York Federal Reserve economists who published a study in December 2024 for Liberty Street Economics, is that it does a poor job of separating output and input tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据四位纽约联邦储备银行经济学家在 2024 年 12 月为自由街经济学发布的研究，特朗普的关税政策最大的问题在于它未能有效区分产出关税和输入关税。</p>
</div><p>In their study, Do Import Tariffs Protect U.S. Firms?, the four New York Fed economists examined the impact of Trump's China tariffs in 2018-2019 on the U.S. economy and businesses. What they found was added pricing pressure on domestic manufacturers caused by the China trade war. Whereas output tariffs are placed on finished products, an input tariff is a duty for a good used to complete the manufacture of a product in the U.S. This type of tariff runs the risk of increasing production costs and reigniting the prevailing rate of inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他们的研究《进口关税是否保护美国企业？》中，这四位纽约联储经济学家考察了 2018-2019 年特朗普对中国关税对美国经济和企业的影响。他们发现，由于中美贸易战，国内制造商面临了更大的价格压力。产出关税是对成品征收的，而输入关税则是对用于完成美国产品制造的商品征收的关税。这种类型的关税有可能增加生产成本，并重新点燃通货膨胀的上升趋势。</p>
</div><p>While some degree of pricing power is a good thing for businesses, the inflationary ramp-up we've witnessed over the previous three months is a bit concerning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然一定程度的定价权对企业来说是好事，但我们在过去三个月中目睹的通货膨胀加剧确实令人担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMTYvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWludmVzdC1idXktc2VsbC1mZWQtd2FsbC1zdHJlZXQtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833316%2Fnyse-floor-trader-stock-market-invest-buy-sell-fed-wall-street-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street's ticking time bomb is nearing historic levels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街的定时炸弹接近历史高位</h2>
</div><p>But even though Donald Trump's tariffs are pretty consistently in the headlines, they're not Wall Street's biggest concern. Based on historical precedent, valuation is the ticking time bomb ready to pull the rug out from beneath the S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite at any moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策频频登上头条，它们也不是华尔街最大的担忧。根据历史先例，估值才是随时可能将标准普尔 500 指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数的地板抽走的定时炸弹。</p>
</div><p>Truth be told, there isn't a one-size-fits-all blueprint when it comes to valuing stocks. That you might find a stock to be expensive while another investor believes it to be a bargain is precisely what makes the stock market a market in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说实话，在估值股票时并没有一刀切的蓝图。你可能认为某只股票价格昂贵，而另一位投资者却认为它是个便宜货，这正是股市存在的原因。</p>
</div><p>However, there's one valuation tool that leaves little interpretative wiggle room: the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, also referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一种估值工具几乎没有解释的余地：标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率（P/E），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE）。</p>
</div><p>The most familiar of all valuation tools is the P/E ratio, which divides a company's share price by its trailing-12-month earnings per share (EPS). While this is a handy valuation measure for mature businesses, it often fails to pass muster during recessions and for high-growth companies. This isn't a problem for the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E since it's based on average inflation-adjusted EPS over the prior 10 years. It means shock events have minimal impact on the Shiller P/E ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最常见的估值工具是市盈率，它将公司的股价与其过去 12 个月的每股收益（EPS）进行比较。虽然这对于成熟企业来说是一个方便的估值指标，但在经济衰退和高增长公司中往往难以奏效。标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率并不存在这个问题，因为它基于过去 10 年的平均通胀调整后每股收益。这意味着突发事件对 Shiller 市盈率的影响微乎其微。</p>
</div><p>When back-tested 154 years to January 1871, the Shiller P/E has averaged a multiple of 17.28. As of the closing bell on Sept. 11, it clocked in at 39.58, which is the highest reading during the current bull market and the third-priciest multiple during a continuous bull market in over 150 years. The only two times the CAPE ratio has been higher are when it fractionally topped 40 during the first week of January 2022 and when it peaked at its all-time high of 44.19 in December 1999.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经过 154 年的回测，自 1871 年 1 月以来，Shiller 市盈率的平均倍数为 17.28。截至 9 月 11 日收盘时，该倍数为 39.58，这是当前牛市期间的最高读数，也是 150 多年来持续牛市中的第三高倍数。唯一两次 CAPE 比率更高的情况是 2022 年 1 月第一周略微超过 40，以及 1999 年 12 月达到历史最高点 44.19。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c13f948abe86f0a28fe8d141e3434913.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c13f948abe86f0a28fe8d141e3434913.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. CAPE Ratio = cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts。CAPE 比率 = 周期性调整后的市盈率。</p>
</div><p>Admittedly, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E isn't a timing tool. Just because stocks are historically pricey, it doesn't mean a game-changing innovation like artificial intelligence can't keep valuations at nosebleed levels for months, perhaps even a few years. However, history is unmistakably clear in showing that premium valuations <em>eventually</em> end in short-term disaster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，S&amp;P 500 的 Shiller 市盈率并不是一个时机工具。仅仅因为股票在历史上价格昂贵，并不意味着像人工智能这样的颠覆性创新不能在几个月，甚至几年内保持估值在高位。然而，历史无疑清楚地表明，溢价估值最终会以短期灾难告终。</p>
</div><p>Including the present, there have been six instances since 1871 where the Shiller P/E ratio has topped 30 for at least a two-month period. Following each of the previous five instances, the S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and/or Nasdaq Composite tumbled between 20% and 89%. While the 89% is an outlier for the Dow during the Great Depression, plunges of 50% or more are not out of the question, as was witnessed during the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1871 年以来，包括现在在内，Shiller 市盈率超过 30 的情况出现过六次，每次持续至少两个月。在之前的五次中，S&amp;P 500、道琼斯工业平均指数和/或纳斯达克综合指数下跌幅度在 20% 到 89% 之间。虽然 89% 是大萧条期间道琼斯的异常值，但 50% 或更多的下跌并非不可能，正如在 2000 年代初互联网泡沫破裂时所见。</p>
</div><p>If there's a silver lining for this ticking time bomb, it's that bear markets are historically short-lived.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这个定时炸弹有一点积极的方面，那就是熊市在历史上通常是短暂的。</p>
</div><p>In June 2023, Bespoke Investment Group calculated the calendar-day length of every S&amp;P 500 bull and bear market dating back to the start of the Great Depression in September 1929. Bespoke found that the average length of 27 documented S&amp;P 500 bear markets was just 286 calendar days, or less than 10 months. In comparison, the average bull market stuck around for 3.5 times as long, or 1,011 calendar days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年 6 月，Bespoke Investment Group 计算了自 1929 年 9 月大萧条开始以来每个 S&amp;P 500 牛市和熊市的日历天数。Bespoke 发现，27 个记录在案的 S&amp;P 500 熊市的平均持续时间仅为 286 个日历天，或不到 10 个月。相比之下，平均牛市持续了 3.5 倍的时间，即 1,011 个日历天。</p>
</div><p>Even though history is quite clear that trouble is brewing on Wall Street, long-term investors remain in the driver's seat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管历史清楚表明华尔街正在酝酿麻烦，但长期投资者仍然掌握着主动权。</p>
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忘掉特朗普总统的关税及其通胀影响——根据历史经验，这才是华尔街的定时炸弹