<p>一些铁路道口有栅栏，在火车接近时阻止司机通行。其他道口则有闪烁的灯光来提醒司机火车即将到来。司机可以继续行驶，但这样做是有风险的。</p>
<p>股市没有类似于栅栏的东西来阻止投资者在危险来临时亏损。然而，我认为它确实有类似于闪烁灯光的东西。它的名字是沃伦·巴菲特。</p>
<p>巴菲特研究市场已有数十年，知道何时需要谨慎。而他目前正在发出 3440 亿美元的警告，华尔街（以及许多投资者）对此却心安理得地视而不见。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI4MDMvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI4MDMvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>钱说话的分量</h2>
<p>可以肯定的是，巴菲特并没有在电视上预言股市的厄运。他没有在主要报纸上撰写社论，建议投资者要谨慎。这种做法并不是巴菲特的风格。然而，他正在做的事情——以及没有做的事情——与 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.55%）（BRK.B -0.59%）的资金，意义重大。</p>
<p>截至 2025 年第二季度末，巴菲特为伯克希尔积累的现金储备（包括现金、现金等价物和短期美国国债投资）总额达 3440 亿美元。该集团唯一一次拥有更多现金是在前一个季度，当时其现金头寸接近 3480 亿美元。</p>
<p>巴菲特没有用伯克希尔的钱购买许多股票。他已经连续 11 个季度成为股票的净卖家。这位传奇投资者自去年中期以来甚至没有授权回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。</p>
<p>这对华尔街和投资者来说是一个闪烁的警告吗？我认为是的。巴菲特似乎在用伯克希尔的钱表示，目前大多数股票的价格太高，不值得购买。</p>
<h2>心安理得地忽视奥马哈的先知</h2>
<p>华尔街和许多投资者确实心安理得地忽视了奥马哈的先知。有两个因素证实了这一点。</p>
<p>首先，分析师总体上似乎对整体股票估值几乎没有担忧。举个例子，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中的 405 只股票的共识分析师评级为买入或更好。只有三只股票在这个广受关注的指数中有共识卖出评级。</p>
<p>其次，标准普尔 500 指数的交易价格达到了历史最高点。你甚至可以说，许多投资者最近变得贪婪。这让人想起巴菲特在 1987 年致伯克希尔哈撒韦股东的信中著名的声明：“我们只是试图在别人贪婪时保持恐惧，而在别人恐惧时保持贪婪。”</p>
<p>回顾巴菲特在二十多年前所说的事情也是很有启发性的。在 2001 年为《财富》杂志撰写的一篇文章中，他讨论了美国股市总市值与国民生产总值（GNP）的比率。这个估值比率，现在用国内生产总值（GDP）替代 GNP，被称为巴菲特指标。巴菲特当时表示，当这个指标接近 200% 时，投资者 “是在玩火”。</p>
<p>那么，巴菲特指标现在处于什么水平？它超过了 213%。</p>
<h2>投资者应该怎么做？</h2>
<p>也许投资者不应该关注巴菲特。也许这位传奇投资者应该大举购买股票，而不是建立巨额现金头寸。他会是第一个承认自己过去曾错的人。</p>
<p>然而，我认为忽视巴菲特的警告并不是最佳选择。相反，遵循这位亿万富翁的一般方法似乎是明智的做法，因为股市估值处于历史高位。</p>
<p>重要的是，巴菲特并没有恐慌性抛售。伯克希尔仍然持有约 3000 亿美元的股票。这突显了巴菲特对长期的关注，我认为所有投资者都应该具备这种观点。他甚至在购买一些符合他严格选择标准的股票（尽管不多）。正如我们已经看到的，巴菲特还建立了一个庞大的现金头寸，他（或他的继任者）可以在股票估值更具吸引力时加以利用。</p>
<p>这种专注于长期、对购买哪些股票高度挑剔以及在股票估值过高时保持现金的策略，是巴菲特几十年来一直采用的。这是一种极为成功的方法。</p>
<p>忽视这位传奇投资者的警告，可能会对你的投资组合造成潜在的危险。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>沃伦·巴菲特向华尔街和投资者发出了 3440 亿美元的警告，指出许多股票被高估。尽管持有大量现金，巴菲特在过去 11 个季度里一直是股票的净卖家，自去年以来没有授权回购。分析师们依然乐观，大多数标准普尔 500 指数股票被评为买入，而巴菲特指标显示股票市场市值已达到 GDP 的 213%。投资者被建议关注巴菲特的警告，专注于长期策略，而不是忽视他的警示</p>

<p>Some railroad crossings have gates that block drivers from going through when a train is approaching. Others have flashing lights to alert drivers that a train is coming. They could drive on, but doing so is risky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些铁路道口有栅栏，在火车接近时阻止司机通行。其他道口则有闪烁的灯光来提醒司机火车即将到来。司机可以继续行驶，但这样做是有风险的。</p>
</div><p>The stock market doesn't have the equivalent of a gate that prevents investors from losing money when danger lies ahead. However, I think it does have something similar to a flashing light. His name is Warren Buffett.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市没有类似于栅栏的东西来阻止投资者在危险来临时亏损。然而，我认为它确实有类似于闪烁灯光的东西。它的名字是沃伦·巴菲特。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has studied the market for decades and knows when caution is warranted. And he's currently flashing a $344 billion warning that Wall Street (and many investors) are blissfully ignoring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特研究市场已有数十年，知道何时需要谨慎。而他目前正在发出 3440 亿美元的警告，华尔街（以及许多投资者）对此却心安理得地视而不见。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzI4MDMvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832803%2Fbuffett2-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Money speaks volumes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>钱说话的分量</h2>
</div><p>To be sure, Buffett isn't appearing on TV prophesying stock market doom and gloom. He hasn't written op-ed pieces in major newspapers advising investors to exercise caution. Such efforts aren't Buffett's style. However, what he is doing -- and not doing -- with <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A -0.55%)(BRK.B -0.59%) money speaks volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，巴菲特并没有在电视上预言股市的厄运。他没有在主要报纸上撰写社论，建议投资者要谨慎。这种做法并不是巴菲特的风格。然而，他正在做的事情——以及没有做的事情——与 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.55%）（BRK.B -0.59%）的资金，意义重大。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has amassed a cash stockpile (including cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments in U.S. Treasuries) for Berkshire that totaled $344 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2025. The only time the conglomerate has had more cash was in the previous quarter, when its cash position stood at nearly $348 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年第二季度末，巴菲特为伯克希尔积累的现金储备（包括现金、现金等价物和短期美国国债投资）总额达 3440 亿美元。该集团唯一一次拥有更多现金是在前一个季度，当时其现金头寸接近 3480 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>What Buffett isn't doing with Berkshire's money is buying many stocks. He has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters. The legendary investor hasn't even authorized stock buybacks of Berkshire Hathaway shares since the middle of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特没有用伯克希尔的钱购买许多股票。他已经连续 11 个季度成为股票的净卖家。这位传奇投资者自去年中期以来甚至没有授权回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。</p>
</div><p>Is this a flashing warning for Wall Street and investors? I think so. Buffett appears to be saying (with Berkshire's money) that most stocks are too expensive to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对华尔街和投资者来说是一个闪烁的警告吗？我认为是的。巴菲特似乎在用伯克希尔的钱表示，目前大多数股票的价格太高，不值得购买。</p>
</div><h2>Blissfully ignoring the Oracle of Omaha</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>心安理得地忽视奥马哈的先知</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street and many investors are indeed blissfully ignoring the Oracle of Omaha. Two factors confirm this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街和许多投资者确实心安理得地忽视了奥马哈的先知。有两个因素证实了这一点。</p>
</div><p>First, analysts in aggregate seem to have few concerns about overall stock valuations. As a case in point, 405 stocks in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> have consensus analyst ratings of buy or better. Only three stocks in the widely followed index have consensus sell ratings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，分析师总体上似乎对整体股票估值几乎没有担忧。举个例子，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中的 405 只股票的共识分析师评级为买入或更好。只有三只股票在这个广受关注的指数中有共识卖出评级。</p>
</div><p>Second, the S&amp;P 500 is trading at an all-time high. You might even say that many investors are being greedy these days. That brings to mind Buffett's famous statement in his 1987 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: &#34;We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，标准普尔 500 指数的交易价格达到了历史最高点。你甚至可以说，许多投资者最近变得贪婪。这让人想起巴菲特在 1987 年致伯克希尔哈撒韦股东的信中著名的声明：“我们只是试图在别人贪婪时保持恐惧，而在别人恐惧时保持贪婪。”</p>
</div><p>It's also instructive to look back at something Buffett said more than two decades ago. In an article for <em>Fortune</em> magazine in 2001, he discussed the ratio of total U.S. stock market capitalization to gross national product (GNP). This valuation ratio, with gross domestic product (GDP) replacing GNP, is now known as the Buffett indicator. Buffett stated then that when this indicator approaches 200%, investors &#34;are playing with fire.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾巴菲特在二十多年前所说的事情也是很有启发性的。在 2001 年为《财富》杂志撰写的一篇文章中，他讨论了美国股市总市值与国民生产总值（GNP）的比率。这个估值比率，现在用国内生产总值（GDP）替代 GNP，被称为巴菲特指标。巴菲特当时表示，当这个指标接近 200% 时，投资者 “是在玩火”。</p>
</div><p>Where does the Buffett indicator stand today? It's over 213%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，巴菲特指标现在处于什么水平？它超过了 213%。</p>
</div><h2>What should investors do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该怎么做？</h2>
</div><p>Maybe investors shouldn't pay attention to Buffett. Perhaps the legendary investor should be buying stocks hand over fist rather than building a huge cash position. He would be the first to admit that he has been wrong in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许投资者不应该关注巴菲特。也许这位传奇投资者应该大举购买股票，而不是建立巨额现金头寸。他会是第一个承认自己过去曾错的人。</p>
</div><p>However, I don't think ignoring Buffett's warning is the best move. Instead, following the multibillionaire's general approach seems to be a prudent course of action, given that stock market valuations are at historically high levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为忽视巴菲特的警告并不是最佳选择。相反，遵循这位亿万富翁的一般方法似乎是明智的做法，因为股市估值处于历史高位。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Buffett isn't panic-selling. Berkshire still owns around $300 billion worth of stocks. This underscores Buffett's underlying focus on the long term, a view that I think all investors should have. He is even buying some stocks (albeit not many) that meet his stringent selection criteria. As we've already seen, Buffett has also built a large cash position that he (or his successor) can put to use when stock valuations are more attractive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，巴菲特并没有恐慌性抛售。伯克希尔仍然持有约 3000 亿美元的股票。这突显了巴菲特对长期的关注，我认为所有投资者都应该具备这种观点。他甚至在购买一些符合他严格选择标准的股票（尽管不多）。正如我们已经看到的，巴菲特还建立了一个庞大的现金头寸，他（或他的继任者）可以在股票估值更具吸引力时加以利用。</p>
</div><p>This strategy of focusing on the long term, being highly selective about which stocks to buy, and staying in cash when stock valuations are frothy is one that Buffett has employed for decades, by the way. It's an approach that has been enormously successful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种专注于长期、对购买哪些股票高度挑剔以及在股票估值过高时保持现金的策略，是巴菲特几十年来一直采用的。这是一种极为成功的方法。</p>
</div><p>Ignore the legendary investor's warning at your portfolio's potential peril.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>忽视这位传奇投资者的警告，可能会对你的投资组合造成潜在的危险。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $344 Billion Warning That Wall Street (and Many Investors) Are Blissfully Ignoring

- 巴菲特警告称，当前股票估值过高，现金储备达 3440 亿美元。  
- 他已连续 11 个季度净卖出股票，未进行股票回购。  
- 投资者应谨慎，遵循巴菲特的长期投资策略。  

沃伦·巴菲特发出的 3440 亿美元警告，华尔街和许多投资者却在无忧无虑地忽视