<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN 4.30%）在过去三个月中飙升，最初基于其可能成为下一个 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的论点而引发的迷因股反弹，现在可能正在转变为一个真正的转机。</p>
<p>Opendoor 刚刚任命了一位新首席执行官，聘请 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席运营官 Kaz Nejatian 担任最高职位，两位联合创始人也回归董事会，其中一位 Keith Rabois 成为新任董事长。</p>
<p>但推动 Opendoor 上涨的不仅仅是迷因投资者和新领导层。投资者还寄希望于美联储降息的帮助。8 月 22 日，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话中暗示降息时机已到，股价飙升，市场普遍预计美联储将在周三将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点，这是今年的首次降息。抵押贷款利率已经在预期基准借贷利率降低的情况下下滑，目前接近一年来的低点。</p>
<p>作为一家以翻转房屋为业务的公司，Opendoor 本质上是以高于购买价的价格转售房屋并收取服务费，较低的抵押贷款利率似乎对公司是个利好。</p>
<p>然而，这可能并不是投资者一直在等待的盈利解决方案。让我们仔细看看原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2ODQvZmVkZXJhbC1yZXNlcnZlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2ODQvZmVkZXJhbC1yZXNlcnZlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>好消息</h2>
<p>较低的抵押贷款利率可能会给房地产市场带来急需的活动刺激。利率仍然徘徊在 6% 以上，是疫情期间的两倍多。</p>
<p>抵押贷款利率的飙升造成了 “锁定效应”，这意味着在疫情期间购买或再融资房屋的美国人不愿意放弃那些利率更高的抵押贷款，即使他们想要搬家。</p>
<p>因此，现有房屋销售在过去几年一直处于低迷状态。从下面的图表可以看出，现有房屋销售在过去三年中一直保持在每年约 400 万套，较疫情前水平下降约 30%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png"/></p>
<p>美国现有房屋销售数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>如果抵押贷款利率大幅下降，更多潜在的购房者和卖家应该会进入市场，这将使 Opendoor 受益，房屋库存也可能会增加。更多的库存为公司提供了更多的购房机会和潜在交易，从而推动其业务。更活跃的房地产市场也可能减少 Opendoor 持有房屋的时间，从而为公司节省资金。</p>
<p>此外，Opendoor 还受益于较低的利率，因为它利用债务市场来资助其购房。它在第二季度结束时拥有 12 亿美元的资产支持债务和 15 亿美元的房地产库存。</p>
<h2>可能无关紧要的原因</h2>
<p>可以说，影响 Opendoor 的最重要的房地产市场因素不是现有房屋交易的数量，而是房价，因为公司显然受益于房价上涨。</p>
<p>然而，尽管房地产市场活动停滞不前，房价仍然保持在历史高位。根据标准普尔 CoreLogic Case-Shiller 美国国家房价指数，截至 6 月，该指数为 331.5，比疫情开始时上涨了约 50%。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，2025 年 7 月的房屋中位销售价格为 422,400 美元。</p>
<p>房价可能会继续上涨，但由于美国存在严重的住房短缺，估计数量在数百万之上，房价上涨的空间可能不大，多个指标指向住房可负担性危机。根据一些测量，房价与收入的比率从未如此之高。</p>
<p>当然，较低的抵押贷款利率将降低月供，鼓励买家进入市场，但 “锁定效应” 的解除也可能增加供应，给价格施加压力。</p>
<p>此外，疲软的劳动力市场可能会抑制购房需求。</p>
<h2>对 Opendoor 的影响</h2>
<p>无论房地产市场发生什么，结果都需要时间来显现，尤其是杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经表明采取谨慎的态度，担心通胀仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。</p>
<p>尽管如此，任何改善宏观环境的迹象都可能对 Opendoor 的股票产生利好。该业务能否利用更活跃的房地产市场并实现盈利仍有待观察。随着投资者调整对 Opendoor 的预期，他们应当记住，房价已经显得有些高企，这意味着 Opendoor 的上行空间可能有限。</p>

OPEN

<p>Opendoor Technologies 的股票大幅上涨，主要受到新领导层和潜在的美联储降息的推动。虽然较低的抵押贷款利率可能刺激房地产市场活动，从而有利于 Opendoor 的房屋翻转业务，但仍面临挑战。房价处于历史高位，住房可负担性危机依然存在。公司的盈利能力取决于如何应对这些市场动态，因为美联储在持续的通胀担忧中保持谨慎态度。投资者应意识到，尽管存在机会，但由于房价高企，Opendoor 的上行空间可能有限</p>

<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.30%) has skyrocketed over the last three months as what started out as a meme-stock rally based on the argument that it could be the next <strong>Carvana</strong> could now be turning into a legitimate turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN 4.30%）在过去三个月中飙升，最初基于其可能成为下一个 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的论点而引发的迷因股反弹，现在可能正在转变为一个真正的转机。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor just brought in a new CEO, tapping <strong>Shopify</strong> COO Kaz Nejatian for the top spot, and two of its co-founders have returned to the board with one of them, Keith Rabois, becoming the new chair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 刚刚任命了一位新首席执行官，聘请 <strong>Shopify</strong> 首席运营官 Kaz Nejatian 担任最高职位，两位联合创始人也回归董事会，其中一位 Keith Rabois 成为新任董事长。</p>
</div><p>But there's more than just meme investors and new leadership fueling the Opendoor run. Investors are also banking on help from Fed interest rate cuts. The stock soared on Aug. 22 when Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted that the time had arrived for rate cuts at his Jackson Hole address, and the central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be its first cut this year. Mortgage rates are already falling in anticipation of a lower benchmark borrowing rate, and are now around 1-year lows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但推动 Opendoor 上涨的不仅仅是迷因投资者和新领导层。投资者还寄希望于美联储降息的帮助。8 月 22 日，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话中暗示降息时机已到，股价飙升，市场普遍预计美联储将在周三将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点，这是今年的首次降息。抵押贷款利率已经在预期基准借贷利率降低的情况下下滑，目前接近一年来的低点。</p>
</div><p>As a company whose business is built on flipping homes, essentially reselling them for more than they purchased them for and collecting service fees in the process, lower mortgage rates would seem to be a positive for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一家以翻转房屋为业务的公司，Opendoor 本质上是以高于购买价的价格转售房屋并收取服务费，较低的抵押贷款利率似乎对公司是个利好。</p>
</div><p>However, it might not be the solution to profitability that investors have been waiting for. Let's take a closer look to see why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这可能并不是投资者一直在等待的盈利解决方案。让我们仔细看看原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2ODQvZmVkZXJhbC1yZXNlcnZlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833684%2Ffederal-reserve.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The good news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好消息</h2>
</div><p>Lower mortgage rates are likely to give the housing market a much-needed jolt in activity. Rates are still hovering above 6%, more than double what they were during much of the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较低的抵押贷款利率可能会给房地产市场带来急需的活动刺激。利率仍然徘徊在 6% 以上，是疫情期间的两倍多。</p>
</div><p>The spike in mortgage rates has created a &#34;lock-in effect,&#34; meaning Americans who bought or refinanced homes during the pandemic are reluctant to give up those mortgages when rates are so much higher, even if they'd like to move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>抵押贷款利率的飙升造成了 “锁定效应”，这意味着在疫情期间购买或再融资房屋的美国人不愿意放弃那些利率更高的抵押贷款，即使他们想要搬家。</p>
</div><p>As a result, existing home sales have been in the dumps for years now. As you can see from the chart below, existing home sales have been trending at around 4 million annually for the last three years, down about 30% from pre-pandemic levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，现有房屋销售在过去几年一直处于低迷状态。从下面的图表可以看出，现有房屋销售在过去三年中一直保持在每年约 400 万套，较疫情前水平下降约 30%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/33e284d8b2c9ebd8321de57a99ea15c6.png"/></p>
<p>US Existing Home Sales data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国现有房屋销售数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If mortgage rates fall substantially, more prospective homebuyers and sellers should enter the market, benefiting Opendoor, and housing inventory is likely to climb. More inventory gives the company more opportunities to buy homes and more potential transactions to drive its business. A more active housing market could also decrease the amount of time that Opendoor keeps homes on its books, which would save the company money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果抵押贷款利率大幅下降，更多潜在的购房者和卖家应该会进入市场，这将使 Opendoor 受益，房屋库存也可能会增加。更多的库存为公司提供了更多的购房机会和潜在交易，从而推动其业务。更活跃的房地产市场也可能减少 Opendoor 持有房屋的时间，从而为公司节省资金。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Opendoor benefits from lower interest rates because it uses the debt market to fund its home purchases. It finished the second quarter with $1.2 billion in asset-backed debt and $1.5 billion in real estate inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Opendoor 还受益于较低的利率，因为它利用债务市场来资助其购房。它在第二季度结束时拥有 12 亿美元的资产支持债务和 15 亿美元的房地产库存。</p>
</div><h2>Why it might not matter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能无关紧要的原因</h2>
</div><p>Arguably, the most important housing market factor affecting Opendoor isn't the number of existing home transactions, but home prices, as the company clearly benefits from prices rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以说，影响 Opendoor 的最重要的房地产市场因素不是现有房屋交易的数量，而是房价，因为公司显然受益于房价上涨。</p>
</div><p>However, while housing market activity has been stalled, prices have remained at all-time highs. After a brief pullback in 2022, the S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is now at 331.5 as of June, which is up about 50% from when the pandemic started. The median sales price for a home in July 2025 was $422,400, according to the National Association of Realtors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管房地产市场活动停滞不前，房价仍然保持在历史高位。根据标准普尔 CoreLogic Case-Shiller 美国国家房价指数，截至 6 月，该指数为 331.5，比疫情开始时上涨了约 50%。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，2025 年 7 月的房屋中位销售价格为 422,400 美元。</p>
</div><p>Home prices could keep moving higher, but there may not be much room to go up as there's a significant housing shortage in the U.S., estimated to be in the millions, and several metrics point to a housing affordability crisis. According to some measurements, home prices have never been higher compared to income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房价可能会继续上涨，但由于美国存在严重的住房短缺，估计数量在数百万之上，房价上涨的空间可能不大，多个指标指向住房可负担性危机。根据一些测量，房价与收入的比率从未如此之高。</p>
</div><p>Of course, lower mortgage rates will lower monthly payments, encouraging buyers to come into the market, but an unwinding of the &#34;lock-in effect&#34; could also raise supply, pressuring prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，较低的抵押贷款利率将降低月供，鼓励买家进入市场，但 “锁定效应” 的解除也可能增加供应，给价格施加压力。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the weakening labor market could tamp down demand for home purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，疲软的劳动力市场可能会抑制购房需求。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for Opendoor</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对 Opendoor 的影响</h2>
</div><p>Whatever happens in the housing market, it will take time to play out, especially as Jerome Powell has signaled a cautious approach, wary that inflation is still above the Fed's target of 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论房地产市场发生什么，结果都需要时间来显现，尤其是杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经表明采取谨慎的态度，担心通胀仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。</p>
</div><p>Still, any sign of an improving macro climate is likely to be a boon to Opendoor stock. Whether the business can take advantage of a more active housing market and turn a profit remains to be seen. As investors adjust their expectations for Opendoor, they should keep in mind that housing prices already look stretched, meaning the upside for Opendoor could be limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，任何改善宏观环境的迹象都可能对 Opendoor 的股票产生利好。该业务能否利用更活跃的房地产市场并实现盈利仍有待观察。随着投资者调整对 Opendoor 的预期，他们应当记住，房价已经显得有些高企，这意味着 Opendoor 的上行空间可能有限。</p>
</div>

Will Opendoor Stock Get Another Win From the Fed on Wednesday? It's Not That Simple

- Opendoor Technologies 股票在过去三个月大幅上涨，受益于新 CEO 和利率预期。  
- 低抵押贷款利率可能刺激住房市场活动，但房价仍处于历史高位。  
- 投资者需关注市场变化，Opendoor 盈利能力仍存不确定性。  

Opendoor 股票能否在周三从美联储获得另一场胜利？事情并不那么简单