<p><strong>优步科技</strong>（UBER 3.04%）是 2025 年的一大亮点，年初至今股价上涨超过 50%，因为这家打车和配送平台持续增长，盈利能力上升。该股票的强劲表现也得到了比尔·阿克曼的 Pershing Square 的支持，该公司在今年早些时候披露了数十亿美元的股份，并且根据其最新的 13F 文件，仍将优步视为其最大持仓。这种热情是有道理的：这是一个规模庞大的双边网络，全球范围内覆盖出行（共享出行）、配送和货运。</p>
<p>对投资者来说，更大的问题不是业务是否运作良好——确实如此——而是今天的价格是否还有足够的上涨空间。随着新业绩的发布、强劲的现金生成和大规模的新回购授权，这一计算已经向优步倾斜——即使现在的股价交易倍数比几个月前更高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM1ODQvdWJlci1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM1ODQvdWJlci1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>稳健的增长和令人印象深刻的现金流</h2>
<p>优步的第二季度更新显示出惊人的势头，帮助解释了为什么投资者如此喜爱这只股票。出行次数和总预订量同比增长 18%，收入增长 18% 至 127 亿美元，营业收入跃升 82% 至 15 亿美元。调整后的 EBITDA 增长 35% 至 21 亿美元，毛利率（占总预订的百分比）从一年前的 3.9% 改善至 4.5%。该季度自由现金流为 25 亿美元，过去 12 个月的自由现金流创下记录，达到 85 亿美元。</p>
<p>“我们的平台战略正在奏效，在出行和配送领域实现了创纪录的受众、频率和盈利能力，” 首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨希在公司的财报发布中表示。</p>
<p>各个业务板块的表现都很强劲。在这一季度，出行收入增长 19%，配送收入增长 25%，而两个业务线的分部调整后 EBITDA 也有所扩大。管理层还发布了指引，预计第三季度将继续实现两位数的增长和调整后 EBITDA 的同比增长。这些都是长期投资者希望看到的复合基本面。</p>
<p>管理层通过积极的股票回购计划增强了对业务的信心。在第二季度报告发布的同时，优步授权了额外 200 亿美元的股票回购计划。首席财务官普拉尚特·马亨德拉 - 拉贾强调了公司 “历史最高” 的过去 12 个月自由现金流，以解释这一举措。对于一家最近才实现稳定 GAAP 盈利的公司来说，这是一个显著的转变，转向持续的现金回报。</p>
<h2>不再是便宜货</h2>
<p>截至目前，优步的股价已经上涨超过 55%，不再是一个低调的价值投资。每股交易约为 96 美元，公司市值约为 2000 亿美元。将其与约 85 亿美元的过去自由现金流进行比较，得到的自由现金流比率在 20 多倍。这对于一个以中高十几的速度增长预订和收入，同时扩大利润率的平台来说并不算不合理，但这假设执行保持在轨道上，增长依然强劲。</p>
<p>一些因素可能会 derail 这一轨迹。增长故事的风险包括监管审查、保险成本和日益激烈的竞争——所有这些因素都可能对定价、提成率、利润率以及最终的盈利能力产生影响。虽然优步不断扩大的自动驾驶合作伙伴关系可能在未来释放效率，但尚不清楚未来会是什么样子，以及需要多长时间才能实现。此外，像 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 这样的自动驾驶制造商可能会迅速扩展其自动驾驶打车网络。事实上，这正是特斯拉计划通过其 Robotaxi 服务所要做的。</p>
<p>尽管如此，投资案例依然引人注目。优步的核心业务板块——出行和配送——正在以吸引人的单位经济规模扩展，管理层的指引指向持续增长。而再投资与资本回报之间的平衡看起来也很健康。最后，Pershing Square 的 13F 显示优步是其最大持仓——这提醒我们，一些成熟的长期资本仍然看到持续的价值创造。</p>
<p>对于考虑在优步大幅上涨后投资的投资者来说，结论很简单：该股票并不便宜，但如果公司维持中十几的增长、扩大利润率并将大部分收益转化为自由现金流，那么它可能并不算高估。换句话说，从这里的上涨空间可能更多依赖于持续的执行，而不是倍数扩张。这使得优步成为一个合理的买入持有候选，适合那些能够接受平台经济风险的投资者——对于那些已经投资的人来说，可以让公司的现金回报和运营杠杆发挥作用。</p>

优步

<p>优步科技今年的股价增长了显著的 50%，这得益于强劲的增长和盈利能力。比尔·阿克曼的 Pershing Square 在优步持有重要股份，现在已成为其投资组合中最大的持仓。该公司报告了令人印象深刻的第二季度业绩，收入和调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）均大幅上升。尽管股价近期飙升，分析师认为它仍然可能是一个合理的买入并持有的选择，前提是持续增长和有效执行，尽管监管审查和竞争等风险依然存在</p>

<p><strong>Uber Technologies</strong>(UBER 3.04%) has been one of 2025's standout performers, climbing more than 50% year to date as the ride-hailing and delivery platform posts consistent growth and rising profitability. The stock's strength has also been cheered on by Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, which disclosed a multibillion-dollar stake earlier this year and, based on its latest 13F filing, still counts Uber as its largest position. The enthusiasm makes sense: this is a scaled, two-sided network with global reach across mobility (ride sharing), delivery, and freight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>优步科技</strong>（UBER 3.04%）是 2025 年的一大亮点，年初至今股价上涨超过 50%，因为这家打车和配送平台持续增长，盈利能力上升。该股票的强劲表现也得到了比尔·阿克曼的 Pershing Square 的支持，该公司在今年早些时候披露了数十亿美元的股份，并且根据其最新的 13F 文件，仍将优步视为其最大持仓。这种热情是有道理的：这是一个规模庞大的双边网络，全球范围内覆盖出行（共享出行）、配送和货运。</p>
</div><p>The bigger question for investors isn't whether the business is working -- it is -- but whether today's price leaves enough upside from here. With fresh results, robust cash generation, and a sizable new repurchase authorization, that calculation has changed in Uber's favor -- even if the shares now trade at a richer multiple than they did a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对投资者来说，更大的问题不是业务是否运作良好——确实如此——而是今天的价格是否还有足够的上涨空间。随着新业绩的发布、强劲的现金生成和大规模的新回购授权，这一计算已经向优步倾斜——即使现在的股价交易倍数比几个月前更高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM1ODQvdWJlci1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833584%2Fuber-stock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Solid growth and impressive cash flow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稳健的增长和令人印象深刻的现金流</h2>
</div><p>Uber's second-quarter update showed incredible momentum, helping explain why investors have loved this stock so much in 2025. Trips and gross bookings each grew 18% year over year, revenue rose 18% to $12.7 billion, and income from operations jumped 82% to $1.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 35% to $2.1 billion, with margin (as a percent of gross bookings) improving to 4.5% from 3.9% a year ago. Free cash flow was $2.5 billion in the quarter, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow hit a record $8.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步的第二季度更新显示出惊人的势头，帮助解释了为什么投资者如此喜爱这只股票。出行次数和总预订量同比增长 18%，收入增长 18% 至 127 亿美元，营业收入跃升 82% 至 15 亿美元。调整后的 EBITDA 增长 35% 至 21 亿美元，毛利率（占总预订的百分比）从一年前的 3.9% 改善至 4.5%。该季度自由现金流为 25 亿美元，过去 12 个月的自由现金流创下记录，达到 85 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Our platform strategy is working, with record audience, frequency, and profitability across Mobility and Delivery,&#34; CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said in the company's earnings release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的平台战略正在奏效，在出行和配送领域实现了创纪录的受众、频率和盈利能力，” 首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨希在公司的财报发布中表示。</p>
</div><p>Strength was broad-based across segments. In the quarter, mobility revenue grew 19% and delivery revenue grew 25%, while segment-level adjusted EBITDA expanded in both lines of business. Management also issued guidance calling for continued double-digit growth and further year-over-year gains in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. These are the kinds of compounding fundamentals long-term investors want to see.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>各个业务板块的表现都很强劲。在这一季度，出行收入增长 19%，配送收入增长 25%，而两个业务线的分部调整后 EBITDA 也有所扩大。管理层还发布了指引，预计第三季度将继续实现两位数的增长和调整后 EBITDA 的同比增长。这些都是长期投资者希望看到的复合基本面。</p>
</div><p>Management is reinforcing its confidence in its business with an aggressive share repurchase program. Alongside the second-quarter report, Uber authorized an additional $20 billion share repurchase program. Coming off record cash generation, CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah highlighted the company's &#34;all-time high&#34; trailing-12-month free cash flow in explaining the move. For a business that only recently crossed over into steady GAAP profitability, this is a notable pivot to sustained cash returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层通过积极的股票回购计划增强了对业务的信心。在第二季度报告发布的同时，优步授权了额外 200 亿美元的股票回购计划。首席财务官普拉尚特·马亨德拉 - 拉贾强调了公司 “历史最高” 的过去 12 个月自由现金流，以解释这一举措。对于一家最近才实现稳定 GAAP 盈利的公司来说，这是一个显著的转变，转向持续的现金回报。</p>
</div><h2>No longer a bargain</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不再是便宜货</h2>
</div><p>After a year-to-date run of more than 55% as of this writing, Uber is no longer an under-the-radar value idea. Trading at about $96 per share, the company's market value sits around $200 billion. Stack that against trailing free cash flow of about $8.5 billion, and you get a price-to-free cash flow ratio in the mid-20s. That isn't unreasonable for a platform growing bookings and revenue at mid-to-high-teens rates while expanding margins, but it does assume that execution stays on track and that growth remains robust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，优步的股价已经上涨超过 55%，不再是一个低调的价值投资。每股交易约为 96 美元，公司市值约为 2000 亿美元。将其与约 85 亿美元的过去自由现金流进行比较，得到的自由现金流比率在 20 多倍。这对于一个以中高十几的速度增长预订和收入，同时扩大利润率的平台来说并不算不合理，但这假设执行保持在轨道上，增长依然强劲。</p>
</div><p>Some things could derail this trajectory. Risks to the growth story include regulatory scrutiny, insurance costs, and increasing competition -- all factors that can weigh on pricing, take rates, margins, and ultimately profitability. And while Uber's expanding roster of autonomous driving partnerships could unlock efficiencies in the future, it's uncertain what this future would look like and how long it will take to unfold. In addition, there are risks that an autonomous manufacturer, like <strong>Tesla</strong>, could quickly scale its own autonomous ride-sharing network. In fact, that's exactly what Tesla plans to do with its Robotaxi service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些因素可能会 derail 这一轨迹。增长故事的风险包括监管审查、保险成本和日益激烈的竞争——所有这些因素都可能对定价、提成率、利润率以及最终的盈利能力产生影响。虽然优步不断扩大的自动驾驶合作伙伴关系可能在未来释放效率，但尚不清楚未来会是什么样子，以及需要多长时间才能实现。此外，像 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 这样的自动驾驶制造商可能会迅速扩展其自动驾驶打车网络。事实上，这正是特斯拉计划通过其 Robotaxi 服务所要做的。</p>
</div><p>Still, the investment case remains compelling. Uber's core business segments -- mobility and delivery -- are scaling with attractive unit economics, and management's guidance points to continued growth. And the balance between reinvestment and capital returns looks healthy. Finally, Pershing Square's 13F shows Uber as its top position -- a reminder that some sophisticated, long-term capital sees ongoing value creation ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，投资案例依然引人注目。优步的核心业务板块——出行和配送——正在以吸引人的单位经济规模扩展，管理层的指引指向持续增长。而再投资与资本回报之间的平衡看起来也很健康。最后，Pershing Square 的 13F 显示优步是其最大持仓——这提醒我们，一些成熟的长期资本仍然看到持续的价值创造。</p>
</div><p>For investors considering Uber after its big move, the takeaway is straightforward: the stock isn't cheap, but it may not be overpriced if the company sustains mid-teens growth, expands margins, and converts a large portion of earnings into free cash flow. In other words, upside from here likely hinges on continued execution rather than multiple expansion. That makes Uber a reasonable buy-and-hold candidate for investors comfortable with platform-economy risks -- and a hold for those already aboard who can let the company's cash returns and operating leverage do the work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于考虑在优步大幅上涨后投资的投资者来说，结论很简单：该股票并不便宜，但如果公司维持中十几的增长、扩大利润率并将大部分收益转化为自由现金流，那么它可能并不算高估。换句话说，从这里的上涨空间可能更多依赖于持续的执行，而不是倍数扩张。这使得优步成为一个合理的买入持有候选，适合那些能够接受平台经济风险的投资者——对于那些已经投资的人来说，可以让公司的现金回报和运营杠杆发挥作用。</p>
</div>

这只比尔·阿克曼的顶级股票在今年上涨超过 50% 后，是否仍然值得买入？