<p><strong>甲骨文</strong>(ORCL 3.33%) 逆势而上，将其云基础设施业务转变为主要的增长引擎。在最近的季度报告之前，由于对人工智能 (AI) 基础设施的需求激增，该公司的云业务已经在快速增长。在 2026 财年的第一季度，甲骨文的云基础设施收入同比增长 55%，达到 33 亿美元。</p>
<p>最大的震惊是甲骨文的剩余履约义务（RPO）大幅扩张，RPO 是衡量尚未实现的合同收入的指标。在第一季度，RPO 超过四倍增长，达到 4550 亿美元，甲骨文大幅提高了其云基础设施收入的前景。到 2030 财年，甲骨文现在预计云基础设施业务将产生 1440 亿美元的收入，比当前的年化收入水平增长超过 10 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2MzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMjkyNTQ2OC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2MzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMjkyNTQ2OC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>与 OpenAI 紧密合作</h2>
<p>在第一季度报告之后，主要新闻媒体报道了与 OpenAI 达成的一项巨额交易，这笔交易是甲骨文披露的新合同收入的重要组成部分。据报道，OpenAI 承诺在大约五年内花费 3000 亿美元购买甲骨文的计算能力，这是一笔惊人的金额。</p>
<p>这笔交易的一个明显问题是，OpenAI 并没有 3000 亿美元。该公司在其整个存在期间筹集了约 600 亿美元的资金。根据报道，目前的年化收入为 120 亿美元，但亏损巨大。新闻网站《信息》报道称，OpenAI 预计到 2029 年，其累计现金消耗将达到 1150 亿美元。</p>
<p>为了实际支付与甲骨文达成的所有计算能力，OpenAI 需要在未来几年以惊人的速度筹集额外资金。此外，收入需要继续大幅增长，以创造对所有计算能力的需求。</p>
<p>竞争是让人怀疑 OpenAI 能否快速增长收入的一个原因。该公司备受期待的 GPT-5 发布相较于预期表现不佳，而 Anthropic 等公司的模型仍然具有很强的竞争力。OpenAI 在创建和销售前沿 AI 模型的业务中似乎没有竞争优势。</p>
<h2>可能出现的问题是什么？</h2>
<p>甲骨文需要为 OpenAI 构建基础设施，才能收取收入。首席执行官 Safra Catz 和董事长 Larry Ellison 在第一季度的财报电话会议上指出，甲骨文并不拥有数据中心建筑，只有设备，并且它可以迅速从基础设施支出转向从该基础设施中收取收入。实际上，甲骨文只能在确定收入生成即将到来时才承诺资本支出。</p>
<p>这减少了甲骨文的一些风险，但并没有解决主要问题。除非 OpenAI 能够持续从投资者那里筹集大量资金，否则它将无法持续支付该基础设施的费用。</p>
<p>这是甲骨文的最坏情况：</p>
<ol>
<li>甲骨文为 OpenAI 构建基础设施，OpenAI 接管并开始支付甲骨文。</li>
<li>这种情况持续发生，直到 OpenAI 面临危机。也许它的收入预测过于乐观，或者经济进入衰退，或者竞争侵蚀了其市场份额，或者 AI 热潮变成 AI 萧条。满足其义务所需的资金变得不可能。</li>
<li>OpenAI 不再支付，也不再需要它同意从甲骨文购买的大量计算能力。甲骨文被困在大量昂贵的 AI 基础设施上，如果 AI 热潮已经消退，可能无法找到替代客户。我们不知道甲骨文与 OpenAI 之间交易的确切条款，但如果 3000 亿美元不存在，那就不存在。</li>
</ol>
<p>由于增加了资本支出以支持其云基础设施业务，甲骨文的自由现金流已经处于负值区域。未来几年，资本支出需要进一步增加以支持与 OpenAI 的交易，这可能需要额外的债务。如果 OpenAI 未能履行其交易义务，甲骨文很难看到好的结果。</p>
<p>如果 AI 热潮在 2030 年前持续不减，甲骨文与 OpenAI 的 3000 亿美元云交易将被视为天才之举。如果没有，甲骨文可能会为自己设下灾难。</p>

甲骨文

<p>甲骨文的云业务蓬勃发展，2026 财年第一季度收入增长 55%，达到 33 亿美元。然而，与 OpenAI 达成的 3000 亿美元交易引发了担忧，因为 OpenAI 缺乏资金来履行这一承诺。该交易的成功取决于 OpenAI 能否在激烈的竞争中获得资金并增加收入。如果 OpenAI 未能履行其义务，甲骨文可能会因基础设施投资面临重大损失。虽然如果成功，该交易可能会成为游戏规则的改变者，但它也给甲骨文的未来带来了重大风险</p>

<p><strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL 3.33%) has defied the odds and turned its cloud infrastructure business into a major growth engine. Even before its most recent quarterly report, the company's cloud business was growing briskly thanks to booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue rose 55% year over year to $3.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>甲骨文</strong>(ORCL 3.33%) 逆势而上，将其云基础设施业务转变为主要的增长引擎。在最近的季度报告之前，由于对人工智能 (AI) 基础设施的需求激增，该公司的云业务已经在快速增长。在 2026 财年的第一季度，甲骨文的云基础设施收入同比增长 55%，达到 33 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The big shock was a vast expansion of Oracle's remaining performance obligations, or RPO, which measures contracted revenue that hasn't yet been realized. RPO more than quadrupled in the first quarter to $455 billion, and Oracle greatly raised its cloud infrastructure revenue outlook. By fiscal 2030, Oracle now expects the cloud infrastructure business to generate $144 billion in revenue, up by more than a factor of 10 from the current annual run rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最大的震惊是甲骨文的剩余履约义务（RPO）大幅扩张，RPO 是衡量尚未实现的合同收入的指标。在第一季度，RPO 超过四倍增长，达到 4550 亿美元，甲骨文大幅提高了其云基础设施收入的前景。到 2030 财年，甲骨文现在预计云基础设施业务将产生 1440 亿美元的收入，比当前的年化收入水平增长超过 10 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2MzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMjkyNTQ2OC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833638%2Fgettyimages-1422925468-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Hitching its wagon to OpenAI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>与 OpenAI 紧密合作</h2>
</div><p>Following the first-quarter report, major news outlets reported that a gigantic deal with OpenAI was behind a big chunk of this new contracted revenue Oracle disclosed. OpenAI has reportedly committed to spending $300 billion over approximately five years on computing power from Oracle, a staggering sum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度报告之后，主要新闻媒体报道了与 OpenAI 达成的一项巨额交易，这笔交易是甲骨文披露的新合同收入的重要组成部分。据报道，OpenAI 承诺在大约五年内花费 3000 亿美元购买甲骨文的计算能力，这是一笔惊人的金额。</p>
</div><p>One obvious problem with this deal is that OpenAI doesn't have $300 billion. The company has raised around $60 billion in funding in its entire existence. Revenue is reportedly at a $12 billion annual run rate right now, but losses are enormous. News site The Information has reported that OpenAI expects its cumulative cash burn through 2029 to reach $115 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔交易的一个明显问题是，OpenAI 并没有 3000 亿美元。该公司在其整个存在期间筹集了约 600 亿美元的资金。根据报道，目前的年化收入为 120 亿美元，但亏损巨大。新闻网站《信息》报道称，OpenAI 预计到 2029 年，其累计现金消耗将达到 1150 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>For OpenAI to actually pay for all the computing power that it's agreed to buy from Oracle, the company will need to raise additional funding at a blistering rate for years. On top of that, revenue needs to continue to explode higher and create the need for all that computing capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了实际支付与甲骨文达成的所有计算能力，OpenAI 需要在未来几年以惊人的速度筹集额外资金。此外，收入需要继续大幅增长，以创造对所有计算能力的需求。</p>
</div><p>Competition is one reason to be skeptical that OpenAI can grow revenue as quickly as it needs to. The company's highly anticipated launch of GPT-5 was a flop relative to expectations, and models from Anthropic and others remain highly competitive. OpenAI doesn't appear to have a competitive advantage in the business of creating and selling frontier AI models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争是让人怀疑 OpenAI 能否快速增长收入的一个原因。该公司备受期待的 GPT-5 发布相较于预期表现不佳，而 Anthropic 等公司的模型仍然具有很强的竞争力。OpenAI 在创建和销售前沿 AI 模型的业务中似乎没有竞争优势。</p>
</div><h2>What could go wrong?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能出现的问题是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Oracle needs to build the infrastructure for OpenAI before it can collect revenue. CEO Safra Catz and Chairman Larry Ellison noted in the first-quarter earnings call that Oracle doesn't own data center buildings, only the equipment, and that it can go from spending on infrastructure to collecting revenue from that infrastructure very quickly. In effect, Oracle can only commit to capital spending when it's sure revenue generation is right around the corner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文需要为 OpenAI 构建基础设施，才能收取收入。首席执行官 Safra Catz 和董事长 Larry Ellison 在第一季度的财报电话会议上指出，甲骨文并不拥有数据中心建筑，只有设备，并且它可以迅速从基础设施支出转向从该基础设施中收取收入。实际上，甲骨文只能在确定收入生成即将到来时才承诺资本支出。</p>
</div><p>This reduces some risk for Oracle, but it doesn't solve the main problem. OpenAI is not going to be able to pay for that infrastructure on a continuing basis unless it can keep raising large quantities of capital from investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这减少了甲骨文的一些风险，但并没有解决主要问题。除非 OpenAI 能够持续从投资者那里筹集大量资金，否则它将无法持续支付该基础设施的费用。</p>
</div><p>Here's the worst-case scenario for Oracle:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是甲骨文的最坏情况：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Oracle builds infrastructure for OpenAI, and OpenAI takes possession and begins paying Oracle.</li>
<li>This continues to happen until OpenAI faces a crisis. Maybe its revenue projections turn out to be overly optimistic, or the economy enters a recession, or competition eats away at its market share, or the AI boom turns into an AI bust. Funding at the levels necessary to fulfill its obligations becomes impossible.</li>
<li>OpenAI can no longer pay for, and no longer needs, the vast amount of computing capacity it agreed to buy from Oracle. Oracle is stuck with a lot of expensive AI infrastructure, and it may not be able to find alternative customers if the AI boom has fizzled. We don't know the exact terms of the deal between Oracle and OpenAI, but if the $300 billion doesn't exist, then it doesn't exist.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>甲骨文为 OpenAI 构建基础设施，OpenAI 接管并开始支付甲骨文。</li>
<li>这种情况持续发生，直到 OpenAI 面临危机。也许它的收入预测过于乐观，或者经济进入衰退，或者竞争侵蚀了其市场份额，或者 AI 热潮变成 AI 萧条。满足其义务所需的资金变得不可能。</li>
<li>OpenAI 不再支付，也不再需要它同意从甲骨文购买的大量计算能力。甲骨文被困在大量昂贵的 AI 基础设施上，如果 AI 热潮已经消退，可能无法找到替代客户。我们不知道甲骨文与 OpenAI 之间交易的确切条款，但如果 3000 亿美元不存在，那就不存在。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Oracle's free cash flow is already in negative territory thanks to an increase in capital spending to support its cloud infrastructure business. Capital spending will need to ramp up further in the coming years to support the OpenAI deal, which could require additional debt. If OpenAI fails to follow through on its side of the deal, it's difficult to see a good outcome for Oracle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于增加了资本支出以支持其云基础设施业务，甲骨文的自由现金流已经处于负值区域。未来几年，资本支出需要进一步增加以支持与 OpenAI 的交易，这可能需要额外的债务。如果 OpenAI 未能履行其交易义务，甲骨文很难看到好的结果。</p>
</div><p>If the AI boom continues unabated through 2030, Oracle's audacious $300 billion cloud deal with OpenAI will look like a genius move. If it doesn't, Oracle could be setting itself up for a disaster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 AI 热潮在 2030 年前持续不减，甲骨文与 OpenAI 的 3000 亿美元云交易将被视为天才之举。如果没有，甲骨文可能会为自己设下灾难。</p>
</div>

预测：甲骨文与 OpenAI 的合作可能是一场潜在的灾难