<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png"/></p>
<p>美国联邦储备委员会近期对降息预期的上升显著推动了黄金价格的上涨。</p>
<p>这导致德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）上调了对 2025 年和 2026 年黄金价格的预测。</p>
<p>市场确信美国联邦储备委员会将在本周的会议上降息。</p>
<p>本月初，另一组疲软的美国劳动力市场数据提高了 50 个基点大幅降息的希望。</p>
<h2>黄金价格预测</h2>
<p>德国商业银行的商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里茨（Carsten Fritsch）周二表示：“我们预计美联储将在年底前降息 75 个基点，明年再降 125 个基点，降至 2.5%。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>这略高于美联储基金期货目前的定价。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>德国商业银行现在预计到年底黄金价格将平均达到每盎司 3600 美元。</p>
<p>它还预计到 2026 年底黄金价格将平均达到每盎司 3800 美元。</p>
<p>这比德国商业银行之前的预测高出每盎司 200 美元。</p>
<p>黄金价格在九月初继续上涨，几乎每天都创下新高，包括周一和周二，超过了四月份创下的前纪录。</p>
<p>COMEX 上 12 月黄金合约的当前纪录高点为每盎司 3735 美元，周二触及。</p>
<p>自年初以来，黄金价格已上涨超过 40%，这一趋势在多种货币中均有体现，而不仅仅是对美元。</p>
<p>弗里茨表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>最近黄金在欧元计价中也达到了新的历史高点，超过 3100 欧元每盎司。其他货币如英镑、瑞士法郎和日元的黄金价格也是如此。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>为什么黄金价格持续上涨</h2>
<p>黄金价格的飙升可以归因于多个因素，主要是年初由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策引发的不确定性。</p>
<p>美国对黄金进口的关税前景导致黄金交付到美国显著增加，导致其他交易中心的贵金属短缺。</p>
<p>弗里茨表示，最近价格上涨的触发因素是特朗普对美国联邦储备委员会独立性的前所未有的攻击。</p>
<p>特朗普频繁且公开地批评美联储主席鲍威尔未能满足他对降息的要求。</p>
<p>这一持续的争执最近升级，特朗普试图解雇一位美联储理事，该决定目前正在等待法院裁决。</p>
<p>与此同时，副总统 JD·范斯（JD Vance）提倡选举官员在货币政策决策中更大程度的参与。</p>
<h2>黄金的价值</h2>
<p>弗里茨指出：“政府影响的货币政策将增加长期通胀风险，正如今天的土耳其或上世纪 70 年代的美国所示。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>因此，美元的声誉在最近几个月显著受到削弱。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>投资者越来越多地转向黄金作为避风港和价值储存，显著的资金流入黄金 ETF 便是明证。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png"/></p>
<p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
<p>根据世界黄金协会的数据，自年初以来，黄金持有量已增加 470 吨，8 月份达到了三年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>在今年前八个月中，七个月记录了资金流入，只有一个月出现了小幅流出。</p>
<p>自八月底以来，彭博社追踪的黄金 ETF 的资金流入显著增加。</p>
<h2>白银将上涨</h2>
<p>预计白银将跟随黄金的近期上涨趋势，也将经历积极的走势。</p>
<p>弗里茨表示：“这可能也与黄金价格已经很高，令一些投资者望而却步，因此他们在寻找更便宜的替代品有关。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>这可以从白银 ETF 的强劲资金流入中看出。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>因此，我们预计到明年年底白银价格将强劲上涨，超出之前的预期。</p>
<p>德国商业银行现在预计到今年年底白银价格将达到每盎司 41 美元，到 2026 年底将达到每盎司 43 美元。</p>
<p>COMEX 上的白银价格最近突破了每盎司 43 美元，这是自 2011 年以来未见的水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png"/></p>
<p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
<p>在周五的下跌后，黄金/白银比率徘徊在 86 左右，接近九月初创下的年度低点。</p>
<p>自年初以来，白银价格上涨近 50%，甚至超过了黄金的表现。</p>
<p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《德国商业银行上调黄金预测，因美联储降息预期；白银将继续上涨》。</p>

<p>德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）因对美国联邦储备委员会降息预期的增加而上调了黄金价格预测。该银行预计到 2025 年底，黄金价格将平均达到每盎司 3,600 美元，到 2026 年将达到每盎司 3,800 美元，比之前的估计增加了 200 美元。今年黄金价格已上涨超过 40%，在多种货币中创下历史新高。白银也预计将上涨，预计到 2025 年底每盎司将达到 41 美元，到 2026 年将达到 43 美元，这主要是由于投资者对更便宜的黄金替代品的兴趣</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Gold-bars-in-a-reserve.png"/></p>
<p>The recent rise in expectations for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve has provided a significant boost to gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦储备委员会近期对降息预期的上升显著推动了黄金价格的上涨。</p>
</div><p>This has led Commerzbank AG to revise upwards its forecast for gold prices in 2025 and 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）上调了对 2025 年和 2026 年黄金价格的预测。</p>
</div><p>The market is certain that the US Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场确信美国联邦储备委员会将在本周的会议上降息。</p>
</div><p>At the beginning of the month, another weak set of US labour market data raised hope of a larger cut of 50 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月初，另一组疲软的美国劳动力市场数据提高了 50 个基点大幅降息的希望。</p>
</div><h2>Gold price forecasts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金价格预测</h2>
</div><p>“We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year and by a further 125 basis points next year to 2.5%,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行的商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里茨（Carsten Fritsch）周二表示：“我们预计美联储将在年底前降息 75 个基点，明年再降 125 个基点，降至 2.5%。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>This is slightly more than the Fed Funds Futures are currently pricing in.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>这略高于美联储基金期货目前的定价。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The German bank now sees gold prices averaging $3,600 per ounce by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行现在预计到年底黄金价格将平均达到每盎司 3600 美元。</p>
</div><p>It also sees gold averaging $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还预计到 2026 年底黄金价格将平均达到每盎司 3800 美元。</p>
</div><p>This is $200 per ounce higher than Commerzbank’s previous forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这比德国商业银行之前的预测高出每盎司 200 美元。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices continued their upward trend in early September, consistently reaching new record highs almost daily, including Monday and Tuesday, after exceeding the previous record set in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格在九月初继续上涨，几乎每天都创下新高，包括周一和周二，超过了四月份创下的前纪录。</p>
</div><p>The current record high for the December gold contract on COMEX is $3,735 per ounce, touched on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COMEX 上 12 月黄金合约的当前纪录高点为每盎司 3735 美元，周二触及。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices have surged over 40% since the start of the year, a trend observed across various currencies, not solely against the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年初以来，黄金价格已上涨超过 40%，这一趋势在多种货币中均有体现，而不仅仅是对美元。</p>
</div><p>Fritsch said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗里茨表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Gold also recently reached a new all-time high in euro terms, at more than EUR 3,100 per troy ounce. The same applies to the price of gold in other currencies such as the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>最近黄金在欧元计价中也达到了新的历史高点，超过 3100 欧元每盎司。其他货币如英镑、瑞士法郎和日元的黄金价格也是如此。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Why gold price is on a golden run</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么黄金价格持续上涨</h2>
</div><p>The gold price surge can be attributed to several factors, primarily the uncertainty early in the year stemming from the US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格的飙升可以归因于多个因素，主要是年初由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策引发的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>The prospect of a US tariff on gold imports led to a significant increase in gold deliveries to the US, resulting in a scarcity of the precious metal in other trading centres.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国对黄金进口的关税前景导致黄金交付到美国显著增加，导致其他交易中心的贵金属短缺。</p>
</div><p>The trigger for the recent price increase was US President Trump’s unprecedented attack on the independence of the US Federal Reserve, according to Fritsch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗里茨表示，最近价格上涨的触发因素是特朗普对美国联邦储备委员会独立性的前所未有的攻击。</p>
</div><p>Trump has frequently and publicly criticised Fed Chairman Powell for not acceding to his demands for lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普频繁且公开地批评美联储主席鲍威尔未能满足他对降息的要求。</p>
</div><p>This ongoing dispute recently escalated when Trump moved to dismiss a Fed governor, a decision now awaiting a court ruling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一持续的争执最近升级，特朗普试图解雇一位美联储理事，该决定目前正在等待法院裁决。</p>
</div><p>Concurrently, Vice President JD Vance has advocated for greater involvement of elected officials in monetary policy decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，副总统 JD·范斯（JD Vance）提倡选举官员在货币政策决策中更大程度的参与。</p>
</div><h2>Gold’s value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金的价值</h2>
</div><p>“A monetary policy influenced by the government would increase longer-term inflation risks, as a look at Turkey today or back at the US in the 1970s shows,” Fritsch noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗里茨指出：“政府影响的货币政策将增加长期通胀风险，正如今天的土耳其或上世纪 70 年代的美国所示。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>As a result, the reputation of the US dollar has been visibly undermined in recent months.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>因此，美元的声誉在最近几个月显著受到削弱。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven and store of value, as evidenced by significant inflows into gold ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者越来越多地转向黄金作为避风港和价值储存，显著的资金流入黄金 ETF 便是明证。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-825.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
</div><p>Gold holdings have surged by 470 tons since the start of the year, reaching a three-year high in August, according to World Gold Council data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据世界黄金协会的数据，自年初以来，黄金持有量已增加 470 吨，8 月份达到了三年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Over the first eight months of the year, inflows were recorded in seven, with only one month experiencing minor outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年前八个月中，七个月记录了资金流入，只有一个月出现了小幅流出。</p>
</div><p>Gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have experienced a noticeable increase in inflows since late August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自八月底以来，彭博社追踪的黄金 ETF 的资金流入显著增加。</p>
</div><h2>Silver to rise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>白银将上涨</h2>
</div><p>Silver is expected to follow gold’s recent upward trajectory and also experience a positive trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计白银将跟随黄金的近期上涨趋势，也将经历积极的走势。</p>
</div><p>“This is probably also due to the fact that the already high gold price is deterring some investors, who are therefore looking for cheaper alternatives,” Fritsch said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗里茨表示：“这可能也与黄金价格已经很高，令一些投资者望而却步，因此他们在寻找更便宜的替代品有关。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>This can be seen in the strong inflows into silver ETFs.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>这可以从白银 ETF 的强劲资金流入中看出。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>We therefore expect the price of silver to rise strongly than previously assumed by the end of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我们预计到明年年底白银价格将强劲上涨，超出之前的预期。</p>
</div><p>Commerzbank now sees silver prices trading at $41 per ounce by the end of this year, and $43 an ounce by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行现在预计到今年年底白银价格将达到每盎司 41 美元，到 2026 年底将达到每盎司 43 美元。</p>
</div><p>Silver prices on COMEX breached the $43 per ounce recently, a level not seen since 2011.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COMEX 上的白银价格最近突破了每盎司 43 美元，这是自 2011 年以来未见的水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-826.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
</div><p>After Friday’s decline, the gold/silver ratio is hovering around 86, close to the year’s low recorded in early September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周五的下跌后，黄金/白银比率徘徊在 86 左右，接近九月初创下的年度低点。</p>
</div><p>Since the beginning of the year, silver has gained nearly 50%, outperforming even gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自年初以来，白银价格上涨近 50%，甚至超过了黄金的表现。</p>
</div><p>The post Commerzbank lifts gold forecasts on Fed rate cut hopes; silver to continue rising appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《德国商业银行上调黄金预测，因美联储降息预期；白银将继续上涨》。</p>
</div>

德国商业银行因预期美联储降息而上调黄金价格预测；白银价格预计将继续上涨