<p><strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong>（VOO -0.11%）是全球最受欢迎的投资基金之一。这是有充分理由的。先锋不仅是首个指数基金的背后公司，其管理团队在紧密匹配指数回报方面也有着良好的业绩记录，同时收取的费用非常低。</p>
<p>如果你想追踪标准普尔 500 的回报，几乎没有比这更好的选择了。但先锋的专家对那些考虑将所有可投资现金投入这一热门 ETF 的人发出了警告。他们认为，在另外三只先锋基金中，长期投资者会有更好的机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtZXRmLWJsb2Nrcy1tYWduaWZ5aW5nLWdsYXNzLmpwZWcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtZXRmLWJsb2Nrcy1tYWduaWZ5aW5nLWdsYXNzLmpwZWcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>更好的回报，较低的风险</h2>
<p>先锋每季度发布其时变资产配置（TVAA）投资组合的更新。该模型投资组合基于其分析师的资本市场模型，该模型预测不同资产类别的 10 年年化回报。然后，公司创建一个旨在产生比标准 60/40 股票与债券组合更高预期风险调整回报的投资组合。</p>
<p>先锋的分析师认为，标准普尔 500 ETF 面临的主要问题是大型股指数目前价格昂贵。该指数的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 22.1，历史上处于高位。CAPE 比率最近达到了自互联网泡沫以来未见的水平。同时，利率保持在较高水平。因此，股票相对于固定收益的风险溢价几乎消失。</p>
<p>先锋的分析师预计，美国股票在未来十年每年的回报将在 3.3% 到 5.3% 之间。他们对成长股的预期甚至更低，仅为每年 1.9% 到 3.9%。与此同时，他们预计美国债券市场的整体回报平均在 4% 到 5% 之间。</p>
<p>因此，先锋的 TVAA 投资组合颠覆了传统的资产配置。公司表示，投资组合的 70% 应分配给固定收益，另外 30% 应投资于股票，重点关注市场的特定细分领域。</p>
<p>以下是先锋推荐你添加到投资组合中的 ETF，基于其更好的风险调整回报潜力。</p>
<h2>获取固定收益的补给</h2>
<p>TVAA 模型投资组合的最新更新对债券进行了重仓配置，分为多个类别。但大部分权重来自两个来源，你可以轻松使用先锋的 ETF。</p>
<p>第一个是 <strong>先锋总债券市场 ETF</strong>（BND 0.01%），该 ETF 追踪投资级美国债券。模型投资组合将 37% 的资产分配给该类别。</p>
<p>如前所述，分析师预计未来十年美国整体债券市场的平均回报更好，且这些回报的波动性相较于股票更小。这一点得到了总债券市场 ETF 当前 4.7% 的到期收益率的支持。尽管许多人预计未来几年利率会下降，但平均有效到期时间超过八年。利率下降将提升基金中当前债券持有的价值。这在一定程度上被基金经理必须将票息和投资者流入再投资于低利率债券的事实所抵消。</p>
<p>分析师对美国以外的债券市场寄予更高的期望；他们预测平均年回报在 4.3% 到 5.3% 之间。然而，TVAA 仅将 21% 的投资组合分配给这一资产类别。</p>
<p>确实，<strong>先锋国际总债券 ETF</strong>（BNDX 0.02%）的到期收益率为 5.1%。而且，平均有效到期日为 8.6 年，投资者可以期待在未来几年，甚至整个下一个十年，平均年回报大致保持在这个水平。此外，它使用对冲策略来减轻美国投资者的外汇风险。</p>
<p>国际债券 ETF 看起来是从美国市场获得一些多样化的绝佳选择。然而，如果你在美国，合理的做法是在投资组合中更重视美国指数。你财务生活中的其他因素（如你所拥有的任何债务）可能会减轻持有更多以美元计价的债券的风险。</p>
<h2>在当今股市中寻找稳健的长期回报</h2>
<p>虽然先锋标准普尔 500 ETF 将使你接触到大约 80% 的可投资市场的美国股票，但先锋更倾向于在 TVAA 模型投资组合中使用因子倾斜。</p>
<p>目前，标准普尔 500 指数严重偏向成长股，指数中最大的成分股被归类为成长股。然而，先锋的分析师认为，未来十年美国价值股将带来更好的回报。如前所述，他们预计成长股在未来十年的回报仅为 1.9% 到 3.9%。而价值股则可能根据先锋的模型每年回报在 5.8% 到 7.8% 之间。因此，TVAA 模型投资组合将 11%（在 30% 的股票配置中）分配给美国价值股。</p>
<p>你可以通过购买 <strong>先锋价值 ETF</strong>（VTV -0.11%）来效仿。这只基金被动追踪美国大型价值股指数，并收取极低的费用比率。</p>
<p>价值股目前看起来特别有吸引力，因为价值股与成长股之间的估值差距达到了自互联网泡沫以来未见的水平。在市场修正或崩盘的情况下，价值股相对于市场其他部分提供了显著的下行保护。价值股 ETF 相较于标准普尔 500 指数基金还具有更广泛的多样化优势，后者在前几大持股中变得极为集中。</p>
<p>如果你想在投资组合中添加股票指数基金，考虑在增加更多成长倾斜的标准普尔 500 ETF 之前，先添加先锋的价值 ETF。</p>
<p>话虽如此，大多数人并不需要将投资组合过于倾斜于 TVAA 模型投资组合推荐的 70% 固定收益。历史上，股票始终比任何其他资产类别产生更强的长期回报。只要你在未来几年内不需要你投资的本金，保持投资组合中股票的比例高于债券是一个明智的选择。但对于大多数投资者来说，稍微增加固定收益的比例可能是更合适的选择。</p>

Vanguard国际债券ETF

<p>Vanguard 的专家警告不要仅仅投资于 Vanguard S&P 500 ETF，因为其估值较高，并推荐三种替代 ETF 以获得更好的长期回报。他们建议将投资组合分配为 70% 的固定收益和 30% 的股票，重点关注 Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 和 Vanguard Total International Bond ETF，以实现稳定性和收益。此外，他们提倡投资美国价值股而非成长股，以期在未来十年获得更高的回报</p>

<p>The <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong>(VOO -0.11%) is one of the most popular investment funds in the world. There are good reasons for that. Not only is Vanguard the company behind the first-ever index fund, but its management team also has a strong track record of closely matching index returns, all while charging very little in fees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong>（VOO -0.11%）是全球最受欢迎的投资基金之一。这是有充分理由的。先锋不仅是首个指数基金的背后公司，其管理团队在紧密匹配指数回报方面也有着良好的业绩记录，同时收取的费用非常低。</p>
</div><p>If you want to track the returns of the S&amp;P 500, there aren't many better options. But Vanguard's experts have a word of warning for people thinking about putting all of their investable cash to work in the popular ETF. They see much better opportunities for long-term investors in three other Vanguard funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想追踪标准普尔 500 的回报，几乎没有比这更好的选择了。但先锋的专家对那些考虑将所有可投资现金投入这一热门 ETF 的人发出了警告。他们认为，在另外三只先锋基金中，长期投资者会有更好的机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtZXRmLWJsb2Nrcy1tYWduaWZ5aW5nLWdsYXNzLmpwZWcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833309%2Fgettyimages-etf-blocks-magnifying-glass.jpeg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Better returns with less risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更好的回报，较低的风险</h2>
</div><p>Vanguard publishes updates to its time-varying asset allocation (TVAA) portfolio every quarter. The model portfolio is based on its analysts' capital markets model, which projects 10-year annualized returns for different asset classes. The company then creates a portfolio designed to produce higher expected risk-adjusted returns than the standard portfolio with a 60/40 ratio of stocks to bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>先锋每季度发布其时变资产配置（TVAA）投资组合的更新。该模型投资组合基于其分析师的资本市场模型，该模型预测不同资产类别的 10 年年化回报。然后，公司创建一个旨在产生比标准 60/40 股票与债券组合更高预期风险调整回报的投资组合。</p>
</div><p>The big problem Vanguard's analysts see with the S&amp;P 500 ETF is that the large-cap index is expensive right now. The index's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.1 is a historically high reading. The CAPE ratio has recently reached levels unseen since the dot-com bubble. Meanwhile, interest rates have stayed higher for longer. As a result, the risk premium for equities over fixed income has nearly evaporated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>先锋的分析师认为，标准普尔 500 ETF 面临的主要问题是大型股指数目前价格昂贵。该指数的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 22.1，历史上处于高位。CAPE 比率最近达到了自互联网泡沫以来未见的水平。同时，利率保持在较高水平。因此，股票相对于固定收益的风险溢价几乎消失。</p>
</div><p>Vanguard's analysts expect U.S. equities to return between 3.3% and 5.3% per year over the next decade. Their expectation for growth stocks is even lower, at just 1.9% to 3.9% per year. Meanwhile, they see the aggregate U.S. bond market returning somewhere between 4% and 5% per year on average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>先锋的分析师预计，美国股票在未来十年每年的回报将在 3.3% 到 5.3% 之间。他们对成长股的预期甚至更低，仅为每年 1.9% 到 3.9%。与此同时，他们预计美国债券市场的整体回报平均在 4% 到 5% 之间。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Vanguard's TVAA portfolio has flipped the traditional asset allocation on its head -- and then some. The company says that 70% of the portfolio should be dedicated to fixed income. The other 30% should go toward stocks, heavily weighted toward specific segments of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，先锋的 TVAA 投资组合颠覆了传统的资产配置。公司表示，投资组合的 70% 应分配给固定收益，另外 30% 应投资于股票，重点关注市场的特定细分领域。</p>
</div><p>Here are the ETFs Vanguard recommends you add to your portfolio, based on the potential for better risk-adjusted returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是先锋推荐你添加到投资组合中的 ETF，基于其更好的风险调整回报潜力。</p>
</div><h2>Getting your fix of fixed income</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>获取固定收益的补给</h2>
</div><p>The most recent update to the TVAA model portfolio puts a heavy weighting on bonds, split into multiple classes. But the bulk of the weight comes from just two sources, for which you can easily use Vanguard ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TVAA 模型投资组合的最新更新对债券进行了重仓配置，分为多个类别。但大部分权重来自两个来源，你可以轻松使用先锋的 ETF。</p>
</div><p>The first is the <strong>Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF</strong>(BND 0.01%), which tracks investment-grade U.S. bonds. The model portfolio dedicates 37% of assets to that class.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是 <strong>先锋总债券市场 ETF</strong>（BND 0.01%），该 ETF 追踪投资级美国债券。模型投资组合将 37% 的资产分配给该类别。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned, the analysts see better average returns for the U.S. aggregate bond market over the next decade, with less variability in those returns compared to equities. That's backed up by the fact that the Total Bond Market ETF sports a yield to maturity of 4.7% right now. And while many expect interest rates to come down over the next few years, the average effective maturity is over eight years. Declining interest rates will boost the value of current bond holdings in the fund. That's somewhat offset by the fact that the fund manager will have to reinvest coupons and investor inflows into lower-rate bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，分析师预计未来十年美国整体债券市场的平均回报更好，且这些回报的波动性相较于股票更小。这一点得到了总债券市场 ETF 当前 4.7% 的到期收益率的支持。尽管许多人预计未来几年利率会下降，但平均有效到期时间超过八年。利率下降将提升基金中当前债券持有的价值。这在一定程度上被基金经理必须将票息和投资者流入再投资于低利率债券的事实所抵消。</p>
</div><p>The analysts expect even more from the bond markets outside of the United States; they forecast average annual returns between 4.3% and 5.3%. However, the TVAA only allocates 21% of the portfolio to this asset class.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师对美国以外的债券市场寄予更高的期望；他们预测平均年回报在 4.3% 到 5.3% 之间。然而，TVAA 仅将 21% 的投资组合分配给这一资产类别。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, the <strong>Vanguard Total International Bond ETF</strong>(BNDX 0.02%) sports a yield to maturity of 5.1%. And with an average effective maturity date of 8.6 years, investors can expect average annual returns around that pace for at least a few years, if not the entirety of the next decade. What's more, it uses a hedging strategy to mitigate foreign-exchange risk for U.S.-based investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，<strong>先锋国际总债券 ETF</strong>（BNDX 0.02%）的到期收益率为 5.1%。而且，平均有效到期日为 8.6 年，投资者可以期待在未来几年，甚至整个下一个十年，平均年回报大致保持在这个水平。此外，它使用对冲策略来减轻美国投资者的外汇风险。</p>
</div><p>The international bond ETF looks like a great option to gain some diversification from U.S. markets. However, if you're based in the United States, it makes sense to weight the U.S. index more heavily in your portfolio. Other factors in your financial life (like any debt you have) will likely mitigate the risk of holding more bonds denominated in U.S. dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际债券 ETF 看起来是从美国市场获得一些多样化的绝佳选择。然而，如果你在美国，合理的做法是在投资组合中更重视美国指数。你财务生活中的其他因素（如你所拥有的任何债务）可能会减轻持有更多以美元计价的债券的风险。</p>
</div><h2>Where to find solid long-term returns in today's stock market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在当今股市中寻找稳健的长期回报</h2>
</div><p>While the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF will give you exposure to U.S. stocks representing roughly 80% of the investable market, Vanguard prefers to use factor tilting for the TVAA model portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然先锋标准普尔 500 ETF 将使你接触到大约 80% 的可投资市场的美国股票，但先锋更倾向于在 TVAA 模型投资组合中使用因子倾斜。</p>
</div><p>Right now, the S&amp;P 500 is heavily favoring growth stocks, with the largest members of the index classified as such. However, the Vanguard analysts see better returns over the next decade coming from U.S. value stocks. As mentioned, they expect growth stocks to return a paltry 1.9% to 3.9% per year over the next decade. Value stocks, on the other hand, could return between 5.8% and 7.8% per year, according to Vanguard's model. As a result, the TVAA model portfolio put 11% (out of the 30% stock allocation) into U.S. value stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，标准普尔 500 指数严重偏向成长股，指数中最大的成分股被归类为成长股。然而，先锋的分析师认为，未来十年美国价值股将带来更好的回报。如前所述，他们预计成长股在未来十年的回报仅为 1.9% 到 3.9%。而价值股则可能根据先锋的模型每年回报在 5.8% 到 7.8% 之间。因此，TVAA 模型投资组合将 11%（在 30% 的股票配置中）分配给美国价值股。</p>
</div><p>You can follow suit by buying the <strong>Vanguard Value ETF</strong>(VTV -0.11%). This fund passively tracks a U.S. large-cap value-stock index, and charges a minimal expense ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以通过购买 <strong>先锋价值 ETF</strong>（VTV -0.11%）来效仿。这只基金被动追踪美国大型价值股指数，并收取极低的费用比率。</p>
</div><p>Value stocks look particularly appealing right now, as the valuation gap between value and growth stocks has reached levels unseen since the dot-com bubble. Value stocks also offer significant downside protection, relative to the rest of the market, in the case of a market correction or crash. The value stock ETF comes with the added benefit of broader diversification relative to the S&amp;P 500 index fund, which has grown extremely concentrated in just the top few holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价值股目前看起来特别有吸引力，因为价值股与成长股之间的估值差距达到了自互联网泡沫以来未见的水平。在市场修正或崩盘的情况下，价值股相对于市场其他部分提供了显著的下行保护。价值股 ETF 相较于标准普尔 500 指数基金还具有更广泛的多样化优势，后者在前几大持股中变得极为集中。</p>
</div><p>If you're looking to add a stock index fund to your portfolio, consider the Value ETF from Vanguard before adding more to the growth-tilted S&amp;P 500 ETF.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想在投资组合中添加股票指数基金，考虑在增加更多成长倾斜的标准普尔 500 ETF 之前，先添加先锋的价值 ETF。</p>
</div><p>That said, there's no need for most people to tilt their portfolios so heavily toward the TVAA model portfolio's recommendation for 70% fixed income. Equities have consistently produced stronger long-term returns than any other asset class throughout history. As long as you won't need the principal you invested over the next few years, keeping more stocks than bonds in your portfolio is a smart move. But for most investors, a slight nudge toward more fixed-income may be a more appropriate move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，大多数人并不需要将投资组合过于倾斜于 TVAA 模型投资组合推荐的 70% 固定收益。历史上，股票始终比任何其他资产类别产生更强的长期回报。只要你在未来几年内不需要你投资的本金，保持投资组合中股票的比例高于债券是一个明智的选择。但对于大多数投资者来说，稍微增加固定收益的比例可能是更合适的选择。</p>
</div>

考虑购买 Vanguard S&P 500 ETF？Vanguard 的专家认为还有其他 3 只 ETF 可能更好