<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.98%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克花了数年时间宣传公司的机器人出租车，直到今年 6 月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自主电动车。</p>
<p>马斯克表示，机器人出租车网络将使特斯拉成为全球最有价值的公司，并描述了自主特斯拉车队逐渐接管世界的场景。他在去年十月的一个盛大活动上揭晓了自主的 “网络出租车”，并提议个人特斯拉车主可以利用这一新兴技术，在不使用车辆时将其出租为自主共享出行车辆。特斯拉的支持者，如阿克投资的凯西·伍德，曾表示机器人出租车将使公司的估值达到 5 万亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，自特斯拉在奥斯汀推出小规模机器人出租车车队以来，该车队从最初的 10 辆扩展到 6 月的 20 辆，再到 8 月底的 30 辆，马斯克对这一新业务的宣传却显得相当低调。</p>
<p>他本月早些时候发表的声明暗示，他更关注特斯拉的下一个重大项目，暗示机器人出租车的炒作可能已成过去。在他社交媒体平台 X 上的一条帖子中，马斯克表示 “特斯拉 80% 的价值将来自 Optimus”，指的是公司仍在开发中的自主机器人。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚马斯克心中设想的时间表，但根据那条帖子，他显然认为 Optimus 将来会远远超过特斯拉核心电动车业务和新兴机器人出租车业务的价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2MjkvY3liZXJjYWJfODMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2MjkvY3liZXJjYWJfODMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>承诺，承诺</h2>
<p>即使是特斯拉的支持者现在也知道，马斯克的言论最好带着怀疑的态度来看待。很难判断他关于 Optimus 的上述引用是否基于任何真实的预测，还是仅仅出于他对新技术的热情和信心。</p>
<p>虽然这让马斯克的批评者感到沮丧，但作为首席执行官，他的一项才能是通过对未来的承诺来分散投资者对公司当前问题的注意力。类似地，特斯拉的看涨论点似乎也在不断变化。今年年初，马斯克与唐纳德·特朗普总统的联盟使得股价在短短几个月内翻倍，随后由于马斯克与特朗普之间的明显不和，股价又回落。</p>
<p>在过去一周，尽管报告显示特斯拉在电动车市场的份额已降至 2017 年以来在美国的最低点，占总电动车销售的 38%，但特斯拉的股价再次上涨，这表明它可能正在失去曾经定义的市场。</p>
<p>马斯克关于机器人技术的承诺以及他最近购买价值 10 亿美元的股票似乎克服了任何疑虑（目前），并帮助推动了近期的涨幅。特斯拉还获得了内华达州的许可，可以在该州测试其机器人出租车。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的机器人出租车接下来会怎样</h2>
<p>马斯克在公司 7 月的财报电话会议上确实宣传了机器人出租车的推出，并指出正在寻求在湾区、亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州和内华达州获得监管批准。</p>
<p>他还预测，特斯拉将在年底前向美国一半的人口提供自主叫车服务。然而，现在已经是 9 月，这似乎不太可能实现。</p>
<p>机器人出租车于 9 月 4 日在湾区上线，尽管乘车时会有安全驾驶员在场，这意味着它们并不是完全自主的。特斯拉尚未获得在没有驾驶员的情况下运营自主车辆的许可。</p>
<p>目前，机器人出租车的市场机会巨大，但特斯拉并不是唯一的竞争者。<strong>字母表</strong> 的 Waymo 仍然是这一领域的领导者，其他资金雄厚的运营商也在加入竞争，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 的 Zoox 刚刚在拉斯维加斯推出。</p>
<p>在这一点上，评估机器人出租车的影响还为时尚早，但几乎可以肯定的是，推动收入增长所需的时间将比马斯克预测的要长。同时，像上述关于 Optimus 的声明可能会帮助推高股价，但最终对投资者并没有好处。</p>
<p>目前，特斯拉的市盈率接近 200，分析师预计今年的收入和利润将下降。</p>
<p>马斯克可能还有更多大胆的预测，但在某个时刻，特斯拉必须用实际的商业成果来支持这些预测。在当前的估值和发展轨迹下，特斯拉股票的风险/回报似乎不值得。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>埃隆·马斯克对特斯拉机器人出租车的热情似乎正在减退，他将注意力转向 Optimus 机器人，暗示其可能超越机器人出租车业务的价值。尽管最初引起了兴奋，并在奥斯丁启动了小规模车队，但马斯克最近的评论表明他对机器人出租车扩展缺乏紧迫感。特斯拉在电动车市场的份额已下降，尽管公司获得了测试许可，但完全自主驾驶仍未实现。分析师对特斯拉的高估值和马斯克雄心勃勃的预测表示怀疑，强调需要切实的商业成果</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.98%) CEO Elon Musk spent years hyping the company's robotaxis, leading up to the autonomous electric vehicles' launch in Austin, Texas, in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.98%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克花了数年时间宣传公司的机器人出租车，直到今年 6 月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自主电动车。</p>
</div><p>Musk said a robotaxi network would make Tesla the most valuable company in the world, and described fleets of autonomous Teslas gradually taking over the world. He unveiled the autonomous &#34;Cybercab&#34; at a splashy event last October, and he's proposed that individual Tesla owners would be able to cash in on the emerging technology, renting out their vehicles as autonomous ridesharing vehicles when they're not using them. Tesla backers like Ark Invest's Cathie Wood have argued that robotaxis would send the company's valuation to $5 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克表示，机器人出租车网络将使特斯拉成为全球最有价值的公司，并描述了自主特斯拉车队逐渐接管世界的场景。他在去年十月的一个盛大活动上揭晓了自主的 “网络出租车”，并提议个人特斯拉车主可以利用这一新兴技术，在不使用车辆时将其出租为自主共享出行车辆。特斯拉的支持者，如阿克投资的凯西·伍德，曾表示机器人出租车将使公司的估值达到 5 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>However, since Tesla's launch of a small robotaxi fleet in Austin, which expanded from an initial number of 10 to 20 in June to 30 by late August, Musk has been rather quiet about the new business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自特斯拉在奥斯汀推出小规模机器人出租车车队以来，该车队从最初的 10 辆扩展到 6 月的 20 辆，再到 8 月底的 30 辆，马斯克对这一新业务的宣传却显得相当低调。</p>
</div><p>He also made a statement earlier this month that suggests he's more focused on Tesla's next big thing, implying that the hype around robotaxis could be a thing of the past. In a post on his social media platform X, Musk said that &#34;80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus,&#34; referring to the company's autonomous robot that's still in development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他本月早些时候发表的声明暗示，他更关注特斯拉的下一个重大项目，暗示机器人出租车的炒作可能已成过去。在他社交媒体平台 X 上的一条帖子中，马斯克表示 “特斯拉 80% 的价值将来自 Optimus”，指的是公司仍在开发中的自主机器人。</p>
</div><p>It's unclear what timeline Musk has in mind for that, but based on that post, he clearly thinks that Optimus will one day dwarf the value of both Tesla's core EV business and the emerging robotaxi business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚马斯克心中设想的时间表，但根据那条帖子，他显然认为 Optimus 将来会远远超过特斯拉核心电动车业务和新兴机器人出租车业务的价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2MjkvY3liZXJjYWJfODMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833629%2Fcybercab_83.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Promises, promises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>承诺，承诺</h2>
</div><p>Even Tesla bulls know by now that Musk's statements are best taken with a grain of salt. It's hard to know if the quote above about Optimus was based on any real forecasting or just on his enthusiasm and confidence in the new technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是特斯拉的支持者现在也知道，马斯克的言论最好带着怀疑的态度来看待。很难判断他关于 Optimus 的上述引用是否基于任何真实的预测，还是仅仅出于他对新技术的热情和信心。</p>
</div><p>Though it frustrates Musk's critics, part of his talent as a CEO is to perform a sort of sleight-of-hand where he distracts investors from current problems with the company by making promises about the future. Similarly, the bull case for Tesla seems to be constantly changing. At the start of the year, Musk's alliance with President Donald Trump drove the stock to double in price in just a few months before it pulled back on subsequent backlash against Musk and Tesla over Musk's apparent falling out with Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这让马斯克的批评者感到沮丧，但作为首席执行官，他的一项才能是通过对未来的承诺来分散投资者对公司当前问题的注意力。类似地，特斯拉的看涨论点似乎也在不断变化。今年年初，马斯克与唐纳德·特朗普总统的联盟使得股价在短短几个月内翻倍，随后由于马斯克与特朗普之间的明显不和，股价又回落。</p>
</div><p>Over the last week, Tesla stock has been rallying again despite reports that its market share in EVs has fallen to its lowest point in the U.S. since 2017, at 38% of total EV sales, showing it may be losing the market it once defined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，尽管报告显示特斯拉在电动车市场的份额已降至 2017 年以来在美国的最低点，占总电动车销售的 38%，但特斯拉的股价再次上涨，这表明它可能正在失去曾经定义的市场。</p>
</div><p>Musk's promises around robotics and his recent purchase of $1 billion worth of stock seem to have overcome any doubts (for now) and helped fuel recent gains. Tesla also received permission from Nevada to test its robotaxis in that state.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克关于机器人技术的承诺以及他最近购买价值 10 亿美元的股票似乎克服了任何疑虑（目前），并帮助推动了近期的涨幅。特斯拉还获得了内华达州的许可，可以在该州测试其机器人出租车。</p>
</div><h2>What's next for Tesla's robotaxis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的机器人出租车接下来会怎样</h2>
</div><p>Musk did promote the robotaxi launch in the company's July earnings call, and noted that it's seeking regulatory clearance in the Bay Area, Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克在公司 7 月的财报电话会议上确实宣传了机器人出租车的推出，并指出正在寻求在湾区、亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州和内华达州获得监管批准。</p>
</div><p>He also predicted that Tesla would offer autonomous ride-hailing to half the U.S. population by the end of the year. However, now that it's already September, it seems unlikely that it will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还预测，特斯拉将在年底前向美国一半的人口提供自主叫车服务。然而，现在已经是 9 月，这似乎不太可能实现。</p>
</div><p>The robotaxi went live in the Bay Area on Sept. 4, though rides will come with a safety driver present, meaning they aren't fully autonomous. Tesla does not yet have the permit to operate autonomous vehicles without a driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机器人出租车于 9 月 4 日在湾区上线，尽管乘车时会有安全驾驶员在场，这意味着它们并不是完全自主的。特斯拉尚未获得在没有驾驶员的情况下运营自主车辆的许可。</p>
</div><p>For now, the market opportunity for robotaxis is massive, but Tesla is far from the only competitor here. <strong>Alphabet's</strong> Waymo remains the leader here, and other deep-pocketed operators are getting in the mix as <strong>Amazon's</strong> Zoox just launched in Las Vegas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，机器人出租车的市场机会巨大，但特斯拉并不是唯一的竞争者。<strong>字母表</strong> 的 Waymo 仍然是这一领域的领导者，其他资金雄厚的运营商也在加入竞争，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 的 Zoox 刚刚在拉斯维加斯推出。</p>
</div><p>At this point, it's too soon to judge the impact the robotaxi will have, but it will almost certainly take longer to move the revenue needle than Musk has forecast. Meanwhile, statements like the one above on Optimus may help pump the stock, but they ultimately do a disservice to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一点上，评估机器人出租车的影响还为时尚早，但几乎可以肯定的是，推动收入增长所需的时间将比马斯克预测的要长。同时，像上述关于 Optimus 的声明可能会帮助推高股价，但最终对投资者并没有好处。</p>
</div><p>Currently, Tesla trades at a sky-high price-to-earnings ratio close to 200, and analysts expect both revenue and profits to fall this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，特斯拉的市盈率接近 200，分析师预计今年的收入和利润将下降。</p>
</div><p>Musk may have more bold predictions up his sleeve, but at some point, Tesla is going to have to back them up with real business results. At its current valuation and trajectory, the risk/reward in Tesla stock doesn't seem worth it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克可能还有更多大胆的预测，但在某个时刻，特斯拉必须用实际的商业成果来支持这些预测。在当前的估值和发展轨迹下，特斯拉股票的风险/回报似乎不值得。</p>
</div>

Is Elon Musk Already Giving Up on Tesla's Robotaxis?

- 特斯拉 CEO 埃隆·马斯克曾多次宣传机器人出租车。  
- 机器人出租车网络的推出未能如预期推动特斯拉股价。  
- 特斯拉在市场竞争中面临挑战，未来盈利能力存疑。  

埃隆·马斯克是否已经对特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车感到灰心？