<p>随着人工智能（AI）支出达到历史新高，许多顶级首席执行官讨论未来五年支出将以惊人的幅度增长，显然 AI 仍然是一个值得投资的有前景的行业。考虑到围绕这一大规模基础设施建设的乐观言辞，很难想象有哪只股票没有达到或接近其历史最高点，尤其是那些预计将从这一建设中获得巨额利润的公司。</p>
<p>然而，<strong>ASML Holding</strong>（ASML -0.62%）的股价距离历史最高点下跌了约 25%，尽管它负责生产对所有尖端芯片制造至关重要的机器。我认为它不会长时间保持在这个低位。实际上，它可能会在未来五年为投资者提供可观的回报。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5MDgvc3RvY2staW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWdyYXBoLW9uLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLWNlbGVicmF0aW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5MDgvc3RvY2staW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWdyYXBoLW9uLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLWNlbGVicmF0aW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>ASML 在其领域拥有罕见的技术垄断</h2>
<p>总部位于荷兰的 ASML 制造光刻机，这些机器在芯片上铺设微观电气痕迹。特别是，它的极紫外（EUV）机器是唯一能够处理最先进芯片生产过程中的那一部分的机器。由于它是全球唯一拥有此技术的公司，每个芯片代工厂在扩大其高端芯片生产能力时都必须购买 ASML 的机器。</p>
<p>因此，每当你听说某地正在建设新的芯片工厂时，你可以假设 ASML 将会受益。</p>
<p>在 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）上个月的 2026 财年第二季度电话会议上，首席执行官黄仁勋评论称，公司预计到 2030 年全球数据中心资本支出将达到 3 万亿到 4 万亿美元。这类支出的一部分用于为数据中心配备计算设备，任何包含高端芯片的设备，无论是 <strong>Broadcom</strong>（NASDAQ: AVGO）网络交换机还是 Nvidia GPU，都是使用 ASML 设备生产的芯片。</p>
<p>随着数据中心需求激增，芯片代工厂运营商需要通过建设新工厂来增加生产能力，像 <strong>台湾半导体制造</strong>（NYSE: TSM）这样的顶级企业已经在这样做。这将为 ASML 带来长期的推动，其管理层预计在未来五年将实现稳健增长。</p>
<p>具体来说，到 2030 年，ASML 管理层预计其年收入将在 440 亿欧元到 600 亿欧元之间。在过去四个报告季度中，ASML 的收入为 322 亿欧元，因此如果达到该预测范围的上限，其收入将在未来五年几乎翻倍。历史上，ASML 的管理层在给出指导时非常保守。尽管对 2025 年的展望持谨慎态度，但迄今为止却取得了惊人的业绩。在第二季度，收入增长了 23%。</p>
<p>因此，如果 ASML 在 2030 年的收入达到指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。随着时间的推移，这种销售增长应该有助于提升股价，但这并不是唯一可以帮助 ASML 的因素。</p>
<h2>ASML 的交易估值并不高于其通常水平</h2>
<p>在过去十年中，ASML 的平均市盈率约为 38 倍。现在的估值低于这个水平，因此如果它回升到平均估值水平，仅市盈率的扩张就会为股东带来优厚的回报。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e469bb6beaf2989c9bb685fd21a2b85.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e469bb6beaf2989c9bb685fd21a2b85.png"/></p>
<p>ASML 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>ASML 的净利润通常与其收入保持一致。因此，如果其市盈率回到平均水平，并且 2030 年的收入预测达到管理层预测的高端，它可能成为现在购买并持有五年的顶级成长股。</p>
<p>该公司有几个积极的顺风因素在推动其发展，而 AI 基础设施支出热潮是其中最重要的。由于代工厂运营商需要在需求预计到来之前几年就购买 ASML 的机器，因此它也面临较小的被卷入泡沫的风险。这使得 ASML 成为所有风险承受能力的投资者参与 AI 投资趋势的绝佳方式。</p>

ASME

阿斯麦

<p>ASML 控股公司作为人工智能基础设施的关键参与者，尽管人工智能市场蓬勃发展，但其股价仍较历史最高点下跌了 25%。该公司生产用于先进芯片制造的关键光刻机，拥有独特的技术垄断地位。预计到 2030 年，收入将增长至 440 亿至 600 亿欧元，目前的市盈率低于历史平均水平，ASML 展现出诱人的投资机会。对数据中心和芯片生产能力日益增长的需求进一步支持了其长期增长潜力，使其成为希望利用人工智能趋势的投资者的强有力候选</p>

<p>With artificial intelligence (AI) spending at an all-time high and many top CEOs discussing five-year trajectories for that spending to increase by an incredible amount, it's clear that AI remains a promising industry to invest in. Given all of the bullish language surrounding this massive ongoing infrastructure build-out, it's hard to imagine a stock that's not at or near its all-time high, especially for companies that are slated to make massive profits from this build-out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着人工智能（AI）支出达到历史新高，许多顶级首席执行官讨论未来五年支出将以惊人的幅度增长，显然 AI 仍然是一个值得投资的有前景的行业。考虑到围绕这一大规模基础设施建设的乐观言辞，很难想象有哪只股票没有达到或接近其历史最高点，尤其是那些预计将从这一建设中获得巨额利润的公司。</p>
</div><p>And yet, <strong>ASML Holding</strong>(ASML -0.62%) is down by around 25% from its all-time high despite the fact that it's responsible for producing machines that are vital to the manufacturing of all cutting-edge chips. I don't think it will stay this low for long. Indeed, it could provide investors with impressive returns from here over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，<strong>ASML Holding</strong>（ASML -0.62%）的股价距离历史最高点下跌了约 25%，尽管它负责生产对所有尖端芯片制造至关重要的机器。我认为它不会长时间保持在这个低位。实际上，它可能会在未来五年为投资者提供可观的回报。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5MDgvc3RvY2staW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLWdyYXBoLW9uLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLWNlbGVicmF0aW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831908%2Fstock-investor-looking-at-a-graph-on-a-computer-screen-celebrating.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>ASML holds a rare technological monopoly in its space</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ASML 在其领域拥有罕见的技术垄断</h2>
</div><p>Netherlands-based ASML manufactures the lithography machines that lay down microscopic electrical traces on chips. In particular, its extreme ultra-violet (EUV) machines are the only ones that can handle that part of the production process for the most advanced chips. As it's the only company in the world with this technology, every chip foundry must purchase ASML's machines when they're expanding their high-end chip production capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总部位于荷兰的 ASML 制造光刻机，这些机器在芯片上铺设微观电气痕迹。特别是，它的极紫外（EUV）机器是唯一能够处理最先进芯片生产过程中的那一部分的机器。由于它是全球唯一拥有此技术的公司，每个芯片代工厂在扩大其高端芯片生产能力时都必须购买 ASML 的机器。</p>
</div><p>So, whenever you hear about a new chip factory being built somewhere, you can assume that ASML will benefit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，每当你听说某地正在建设新的芯片工厂时，你可以假设 ASML 将会受益。</p>
</div><p>During <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NASDAQ: NVDA) fiscal 2026 second-quarter conference call last month, CEO Jensen Huang commented that the company expects global data center capital expenditures to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030. A decent portion of this type of spending goes toward outfitting data centers with computing equipment, and anything that has high-end chips in it, whether those are <strong>Broadcom</strong>(NASDAQ: AVGO) networking switches or Nvidia GPUs, has chips produced using ASML's equipment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）上个月的 2026 财年第二季度电话会议上，首席执行官黄仁勋评论称，公司预计到 2030 年全球数据中心资本支出将达到 3 万亿到 4 万亿美元。这类支出的一部分用于为数据中心配备计算设备，任何包含高端芯片的设备，无论是 <strong>Broadcom</strong>（NASDAQ: AVGO）网络交换机还是 Nvidia GPU，都是使用 ASML 设备生产的芯片。</p>
</div><p>With demand for data centers skyrocketing, chip foundry operators will need to increase production capacity by building new factories, as top businesses like <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(NYSE: TSM) are already doing. This will give a long-term boost to ASML, and its management forecasts solid growth over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着数据中心需求激增，芯片代工厂运营商需要通过建设新工厂来增加生产能力，像 <strong>台湾半导体制造</strong>（NYSE: TSM）这样的顶级企业已经在这样做。这将为 ASML 带来长期的推动，其管理层预计在未来五年将实现稳健增长。</p>
</div><p>To be specific, by 2030, ASML management expects its annual revenue to be between 44 billion euros and 60 billion euros. Over the past four reported quarters, ASML has generated 32.2 billion euros, so if it hits the top end of that projected range, its revenue will almost double in the next five years. Historically, ASML's management has been extremely conservative with the guidance it gives. It was cautious with its 2025 outlook, yet it has so far produced phenomenal results. In Q2, revenue rose 23%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体来说，到 2030 年，ASML 管理层预计其年收入将在 440 亿欧元到 600 亿欧元之间。在过去四个报告季度中，ASML 的收入为 322 亿欧元，因此如果达到该预测范围的上限，其收入将在未来五年几乎翻倍。历史上，ASML 的管理层在给出指导时非常保守。尽管对 2025 年的展望持谨慎态度，但迄今为止却取得了惊人的业绩。在第二季度，收入增长了 23%。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I won't be surprised if ASML's revenuesin 2030 comes in at the high end of the guidance range. That sales growth over time should help lift the stock, but that's not the only factor that could assist ASML.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果 ASML 在 2030 年的收入达到指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。随着时间的推移，这种销售增长应该有助于提升股价，但这并不是唯一可以帮助 ASML 的因素。</p>
</div><h2>ASML isn't trading at its usual valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ASML 的交易估值并不高于其通常水平</h2>
</div><p>Over the past decade, ASML has traded at an average of about 38 times trailing earnings. It's cheaper than that right now, so if it rises to its average valuation level, that multiple expansion alone would give shareholders an excellent return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去十年中，ASML 的平均市盈率约为 38 倍。现在的估值低于这个水平，因此如果它回升到平均估值水平，仅市盈率的扩张就会为股东带来优厚的回报。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e469bb6beaf2989c9bb685fd21a2b85.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e469bb6beaf2989c9bb685fd21a2b85.png"/></p>
<p>ASML PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>ASML's bottom line generally tracks with its top line. So if its P/E ratio returns to its average level and its 2030 revenue projection comes in at the high end of management's projection, it could be a top growth stock to buy now and hold for the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 的净利润通常与其收入保持一致。因此，如果其市盈率回到平均水平，并且 2030 年的收入预测达到管理层预测的高端，它可能成为现在购买并持有五年的顶级成长股。</p>
</div><p>The company has several positive tailwinds blowing in its favor, and the AI infrastructure spending spree is chief among them. Because foundry operators need to buy ASML's machines years in advance of when demand is expected to arrive, it's also at a smaller risk of being caught up in a bubble. This makes ASML a great way for investors of all risk tolerances to participate in the AI investment trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司有几个积极的顺风因素在推动其发展，而 AI 基础设施支出热潮是其中最重要的。由于代工厂运营商需要在需求预计到来之前几年就购买 ASML 的机器，因此它也面临较小的被卷入泡沫的风险。这使得 ASML 成为所有风险承受能力的投资者参与 AI 投资趋势的绝佳方式。</p>
</div>

这只遭受重创的 AI 股票可能准备迎来大幅反弹