<p>华尔街投资者常被视为拥有超凡洞察力，与普通参与者有所不同。虽然许多机构交易者确实采用先进的算法策略，但他们的操作并非完全对公众隐秘。</p>
<p>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）要求管理超过 1 亿美元股票的公司在每个季度末提交 13F 表格。这些文件揭示了哪些股票被买入和卖出，为投资者提供了一个了解 “聪明资金” 流向的难得窗口。我密切关注的一位投资者是杜克斯家族办公室的斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。</p>
<p>今年早些时候，德鲁肯米勒退出了杜克斯对数据分析专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的投资。同时，在过去四个季度中，他一直在稳步增持 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.24%）的股份。</p>
<p>让我们来看看削减对 Palantir 的投资是否是一个及时的决定，以及将资金重新分配到台积电如何在长期内产生更强的回报。</p>
<h2>现在出售 Palantir 股票是否合理？</h2>
<p>在过去三年中，Palantir 在人工智能革命中一直是一个主导力量。其人工智能平台（AIP）的推出引发了对公司 Apollo、Gotham 和 Foundry 应用程序的前所未有的需求——这些应用程序在主要公司和政府机构中深度集成。公司的迅猛崛起令人瞩目，为投资者提供了一个引人注目的叙述，超越了传统的 “七大巨头”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="541" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>尽管如此，我认为 Palantir 的估值是其最明显的担忧。以 126 的市销率（P/S）计算，该股票的交易水平不仅远高于其软件同行，而且超出了互联网泡沫期间所见的极端水平。</p>
<p>虽然 Palantir 在长期内仍是一家具有重要上行潜力的公司，但目前该股票已变得过热。德鲁肯米勒减少对 Palantir 的投资反映了谨慎的风险管理——他在之前也曾对 Palantir 股票表现出这种谨慎。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>德鲁肯米勒可能喜欢台积电股票的原因是什么？</h2>
<p>多年来，投资者听说大型科技公司向芯片和网络设备投入数千亿美元，以推动下一代数据中心。显而易见的结论是，资本支出（capex）的上升为 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 创造了强劲的顺风，因其在提供使生成性人工智能成为现实的 GPU 方面的角色。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="507" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 资本支出（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，讨论得较少的是，Nvidia、AMD 及许多其他公司的设计最终依赖于台积电的代工服务。简单来说，台积电（TSMC）是实际组装芯片的公司。我喜欢用的比喻是，台积电在人工智能淘金热中出售铲子。</p>
<p>这个故事并不仅限于生成性人工智能。自动系统、机器人和量子计算等新应用类别才刚刚开始出现。当它们朝着商业可行性扩展时，台积电无与伦比的代工能力将再次成为持续人工智能基础设施投资的关键支柱。</p>
<p>我怀疑这些长期的顺风正是德鲁肯米勒试图利用的：一家不仅参与人工智能运动的公司，最终仍将是其演变不可或缺的基础。</p>
<h2>现在台积电股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>乍一看，很难说台积电股票是 “便宜的”，因为其前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 26。目前估值扩张显然正在发生，受到科技领域乐观宏观背景的推动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 前瞻市盈率（PE）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，在表面之下，像德鲁肯米勒这样的投资者似乎认识到台积电在人工智能价值链中的角色。尽管如此，该公司仍然被更引人注目的同行所掩盖。一些投资者可能也因与中国的潜在地缘政治紧张关系而犹豫是否投资台积电。</p>
<p>虽然这些担忧是合理的，但我认为对台积电长期潜力的看法已经扭曲。换句话说，一些这些因素以及集中在其他芯片股票上的炒作正在削弱本来清晰的投资案例。</p>
<p>对我来说，台积电可能是更广泛人工智能方程中最关键的变量。对于长期投资者来说，台积电股票看起来是一个不容错过的买入和持有机会，因为人工智能叙述将继续展开。</p>

台积电

PLTR

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒已出售其在 Palantir Technologies 的股份，并增加对台积电的投资。德鲁肯米勒退出 Palantir 的决定反映了谨慎的风险管理，因为该公司的市销率较高。他认为，台积电在满足日益增长的人工智能基础设施需求方面处于有利位置，因为它在主要科技公司的芯片制造中发挥着关键作用。尽管对估值和地缘政治紧张局势存在担忧，台积电仍被视为人工智能领域的强劲长期投资</p>

<p>Wall Street investors are often seen as possessing a sage-like insight that sets them apart from everyday participants. While many institutional traders do employ advanced algorithmic strategies, their moves are not entirely hidden from the public.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街投资者常被视为拥有超凡洞察力，与普通参与者有所不同。虽然许多机构交易者确实采用先进的算法策略，但他们的操作并非完全对公众隐秘。</p>
</div><p>The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires firms managing $100 million or more in stocks to file a form 13F at the end of each quarter. These filings reveal which stocks were bought and sold, offering investors a rare window into where &#34;smart money&#34; is moving. One investor I follow closely is Stanley Druckenmiller of the Duquesne Family Office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）要求管理超过 1 亿美元股票的公司在每个季度末提交 13F 表格。这些文件揭示了哪些股票被买入和卖出，为投资者提供了一个了解 “聪明资金” 流向的难得窗口。我密切关注的一位投资者是杜克斯家族办公室的斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this year, Druckenmiller exited Duquesne's stake in data analytics specialist <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>. Meanwhile, over the past four quarters, he has been steadily building a position in <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.24%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些时候，德鲁肯米勒退出了杜克斯对数据分析专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的投资。同时，在过去四个季度中，他一直在稳步增持 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.24%）的股份。</p>
</div><p>Let's examine why trimming exposure to Palantir could prove a timely decision -- and how reallocating capital into Taiwan Semi could generate stronger returns in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来看看削减对 Palantir 的投资是否是一个及时的决定，以及将资金重新分配到台积电如何在长期内产生更强的回报。</p>
</div><h2>Does Selling Palantir stock make sense right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在出售 Palantir 股票是否合理？</h2>
</div><p>Palantir has been a dominant force in the AI revolution over the past three years. The launch of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has ignited unprecedented demand for the company's Apollo, Gotham, and Foundry applications -- each of which are deeply integrated across major corporations and government agencies. The company's meteoric rise has been remarkable, giving investors a compelling narrative outside of the traditional &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，Palantir 在人工智能革命中一直是一个主导力量。其人工智能平台（AIP）的推出引发了对公司 Apollo、Gotham 和 Foundry 应用程序的前所未有的需求——这些应用程序在主要公司和政府机构中深度集成。公司的迅猛崛起令人瞩目，为投资者提供了一个引人注目的叙述，超越了传统的 “七大巨头”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b30c14773010e433e7c98a78ba675c02.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That said, I see Palantir's valuation as its most glaring concern. With a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 126, the stock trades at levels not only well above its software peers, but also beyond the extremes that were witnessed during the dot-com bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，我认为 Palantir 的估值是其最明显的担忧。以 126 的市销率（P/S）计算，该股票的交易水平不仅远高于其软件同行，而且超出了互联网泡沫期间所见的极端水平。</p>
</div><p>While Palantir remains a company with meaningful upside potential in the long run, the stock has become frothy at the moment. Druckenmiller's decision to reduce exposure to Palantir reflects prudent risk management -- something he has demonstrated with Palantir stock previously, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Palantir 在长期内仍是一家具有重要上行潜力的公司，但目前该股票已变得过热。德鲁肯米勒减少对 Palantir 的投资反映了谨慎的风险管理——他在之前也曾对 Palantir 股票表现出这种谨慎。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833007%2Fgettyimages-1468266151-4.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What might Druckenmiller like about TSMC stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德鲁肯米勒可能喜欢台积电股票的原因是什么？</h2>
</div><p>For years, investors have heard about big tech pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips and network equipment to power the next generation of data centers. The obvious takeaway is that rising capital expenditures (capex) create a powerful tailwind for <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, given their role in supplying the GPUs that make generative AI a reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，投资者听说大型科技公司向芯片和网络设备投入数千亿美元，以推动下一代数据中心。显而易见的结论是，资本支出（capex）的上升为 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 创造了强劲的顺风，因其在提供使生成性人工智能成为现实的 GPU 方面的角色。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce8cc2da7a08f4d9d0319fd5536a9023.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 资本支出（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>What is discussed far less, however, is that designs from Nvidia, AMD, and many others ultimately depend on the foundry services of Taiwan Semiconductor. Put simply, TSMC (as it is also known) is the company actually assembling the chips. The metaphor that I like to use is that Taiwan Semi is selling the shovels during the AI gold rush.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，讨论得较少的是，Nvidia、AMD 及许多其他公司的设计最终依赖于台积电的代工服务。简单来说，台积电（TSMC）是实际组装芯片的公司。我喜欢用的比喻是，台积电在人工智能淘金热中出售铲子。</p>
</div><p>This story doesn't end with generative AI, either. New classes of applications across autonomous systems, robotics, and quantum computing are only just beginning to emerge. As they scale toward commercial viability, TSMC's unrivaled foundry capabilities should once again serve as a critical backbone to ongoing AI infrastructure investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个故事并不仅限于生成性人工智能。自动系统、机器人和量子计算等新应用类别才刚刚开始出现。当它们朝着商业可行性扩展时，台积电无与伦比的代工能力将再次成为持续人工智能基础设施投资的关键支柱。</p>
</div><p>I suspect that these secular tailwinds are precisely what Druckenmiller is trying to capitalize on: a company positioned not just to participate in the AI movement, but ultimately remain an indispensable foundation to its evolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我怀疑这些长期的顺风正是德鲁肯米勒试图利用的：一家不仅参与人工智能运动的公司，最终仍将是其演变不可或缺的基础。</p>
</div><h2>Is Taiwan Semi stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在台积电股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>At first glance, it's difficult to argue that Taiwan Semi stock is &#34;cheap&#34; with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 26. Valuation expansion is clearly happening at the moment, fueled by a bullish macro backdrop in the technology landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，很难说台积电股票是 “便宜的”，因为其前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 26。目前估值扩张显然正在发生，受到科技领域乐观宏观背景的推动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a2faf215078466dc3c5bd8acdf4c80e8.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 前瞻市盈率（PE）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Yet beneath the surface, investors like Druckenmiller seem to recognize TSMC's role in the AI value chain. Despite this, the company remains overshadowed by flashier peers. Some investors are also likely hesitating over investing in Taiwan Semi due to potential geopolitical tensions with China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在表面之下，像德鲁肯米勒这样的投资者似乎认识到台积电在人工智能价值链中的角色。尽管如此，该公司仍然被更引人注目的同行所掩盖。一些投资者可能也因与中国的潜在地缘政治紧张关系而犹豫是否投资台积电。</p>
</div><p>While these concerns are valid, I think the perception around Taiwan Semi's long-term potential has become distorted. In other words, some of these factors as well as hype concentrated in other chip stocks are undermining what is otherwise a clear investment case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这些担忧是合理的，但我认为对台积电长期潜力的看法已经扭曲。换句话说，一些这些因素以及集中在其他芯片股票上的炒作正在削弱本来清晰的投资案例。</p>
</div><p>To me, TSMC may be the single most critical variable in the broader AI equation. For long-term investors, Taiwan Semi stock looks like a no-brainer opportunity to buy and hold as the AI narrative continues to unfold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，台积电可能是更广泛人工智能方程中最关键的变量。对于长期投资者来说，台积电股票看起来是一个不容错过的买入和持有机会，因为人工智能叙述将继续展开。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Sold Palantir Stock and Is Piling Into This Specialized AI Chipmaker Instead

- 投资者需关注 SEC 的 13F 报告，了解机构投资动向。  
- Stanley Druckenmiller 减持 Palantir，增持台积电，反映风险管理策略。  
- 台积电在 AI 产业链中扮演关键角色，长期投资价值显著。  

亿万富翁斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒出售了 Palantir Tech 的股票，并转而投资这家专注于 AI 芯片制造的公司