<p><strong>诺和诺德</strong>（NVO 1.75%）的主要药物多年来一直是热议的话题。许多美国人可能不认识这家丹麦制药公司的名字，但他们至少听说过其主要产品：用于治疗肥胖的 Wegovy 和用于糖尿病的 Ozempic。尤其是 Wegovy，因为它提供了一种相对简单的减肥方式，成为了众多讨论的焦点。</p>
<p>然而，尽管诺和诺德的著名药物显然具有吸引力，但该公司的股票近期并不受欢迎。让我们探讨原因，并判断这是否使得该公司的股票在目前成为买入的选择。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkxNTYvcGVyc29uLWNoZWNraW5nLW1lZGljaW5lLW9uLWEtc2hlbGYtaW4tYS1waGFybWFjeS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkxNTYvcGVyc29uLWNoZWNraW5nLW1lZGljaW5lLW9uLWEtc2hlbGYtaW4tYS1waGFybWFjeS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>丛集性头痛</h2>
<p>诺和诺德目前面临的重大挑战可以用一个词来概括：竞争。</p>
<p>自 2021 年中旬美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准 Wegovy 用于减肥以来，该药物一直是一个极受欢迎的治疗选择。此外，它是首个获得监管机构批准用于肥胖的 GLP-1 药物，尤其在制药界，成为首个进入市场的产品是相当大的优势。</p>
<p>但随着这一产品迅速获得大量关注，其他药物开发商不可避免地会推出自己的竞争产品。美国医疗巨头 <strong>礼来</strong> 在 2023 年 11 月推出了自己的肥胖注射剂 Zepbound，获得 FDA 批准，类似于其糖尿病药物 Mounjaro，就像 Wegovy 与 Ozempic 的关系。</p>
<p>这家美国公司投入了大量资源将 Zepbound 推向药房，并进行了积极的市场营销。不出所料，这一努力取得了成功。在销售方面，Zepbound 最近超越了 Wegovy，第二季度的销售额接近 34 亿美元，而 Wegovy 的销售额略超过 30 亿美元。</p>
<p>如果说礼来还不够具有挑战性，诺和诺德还必须应对第三方配方商（即制造定制药物的实体）。减肥药物如此火热，以至于 FDA 在 2022 年宣布出现了 semaglutide（Wegovy/Ozempic 的基础分子）短缺。</p>
<p>为了解决这一情况，监管机构允许配方商混合该分子并销售药物。短缺声明于 2 月底发布，配方商被要求在几个月内停止生产。</p>
<p>然而，事情并非易事；配方商似乎在法律灰色地带中感到可以继续生产该药物。因此，他们仍然是这家丹麦公司的一个头痛问题。</p>
<p>礼来 Zepbound 和 Mounjaro 的基础分子 Tirzepatide 也被 FDA 宣布为短缺。然而，在施加这一声明约两年后，FDA 于 2024 年 12 月撤回了这一声明。</p>
<p>在这些逆风的影响下，诺和诺德已降低了对其业绩的预期。在夏季中旬，它将全年销售增长的指导下调至 8% 至 14%。虽然这对许多医疗公司来说是令人羡慕的，但与之前 13% 至 21% 的预测相比，显著下降。它还降低了运营利润的增长指导。该公司在 9 月中旬宣布将裁员约 9000 人。</p>
<h2>进行顽强斗争</h2>
<p>然而，诺和诺德是一家在市场上存在多年的老牌公司，曾经应对过困难。它正在对抗配方商，并在 8 月披露已在美国对 14 家制造定制 semaglutide 版本的实体提起诉讼。</p>
<p>与此同时，Wegovy 似乎在实验室中与 Zepbound 的对比表现良好。诺和诺德最近进行的一项头对头的真实世界研究支持了前者。</p>
<p>该公司发现，Wegovy 在超重或肥胖且患有心血管疾病的人群中，“心脏病发作、中风或任何原因导致死亡的风险显著降低了 57%。”</p>
<p>GLP-1 药物在治疗糖尿病和肥胖以外的适应症方面显示出显著的潜力。尽管这项头对头研究有其局限性，但它确实使 Wegovy 相较于其新兴竞争对手显得更具优势。</p>
<p>此外，礼来正在研发的减肥药物 orforglipron 的三期试验结果令人失望，使得该公司在伟大的肥胖药物竞赛中又落后了一步。</p>
<p>这些发展是近期的，我觉得它们尚未被充分反映在诺和诺德的股票中（与负面发展相反）。该股票的前瞻市盈率低于 13，考虑到 Wegovy 仍然强劲的增长（销售额同比增长 67%），这一估值似乎相当低。</p>
<p>换句话说，该股票目前看起来被低估，因此在我看来，它绝对是一个买入候选。</p>

礼来

诺和诺德公司

<p>诺和诺德公司的股票面临挑战，因为礼来的 Zepbound 最近在销售上超过了 Wegovy。该公司已下调了销售增长指引，并宣布裁员。然而，它正在积极与竞争对手抗争，并在比较 Wegovy 与 Zepbound 的研究中显示出良好的结果。尽管近期遭遇挫折，但该股票似乎被低估，前瞻市盈率低于 13，这表明可能是一个良好的买入机会</p>

<p><strong>Novo Nordisk</strong>'s (NVO 1.75%) leading medications have been hot discussion topics for years. Many Americans might not recognize the Danish pharmaceutical company's name, but by now they've at least heard tell of its leading products: Wegovy, approved to treat obesity, and its sibling Ozempic, indicated for diabetes. Wegovy in particular is the subject of much talk because it offers a relatively easy way to lose weight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>诺和诺德</strong>（NVO 1.75%）的主要药物多年来一直是热议的话题。许多美国人可能不认识这家丹麦制药公司的名字，但他们至少听说过其主要产品：用于治疗肥胖的 Wegovy 和用于糖尿病的 Ozempic。尤其是 Wegovy，因为它提供了一种相对简单的减肥方式，成为了众多讨论的焦点。</p>
</div><p>Despite the clear appeal of Novo Nordisk's famous drug, however, the stock hasn't been popular of late. Let's explore why, and determine if this makes the company's stock a buy at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管诺和诺德的著名药物显然具有吸引力，但该公司的股票近期并不受欢迎。让我们探讨原因，并判断这是否使得该公司的股票在目前成为买入的选择。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkxNTYvcGVyc29uLWNoZWNraW5nLW1lZGljaW5lLW9uLWEtc2hlbGYtaW4tYS1waGFybWFjeS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829156%2Fperson-checking-medicine-on-a-shelf-in-a-pharmacy.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Cluster headache</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>丛集性头痛</h2>
</div><p>Novo Nordisk's big challenge these days can be summed up in a single word: competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诺和诺德目前面临的重大挑战可以用一个词来概括：竞争。</p>
</div><p>Wegovy has been a hugely popular treatment since the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved it for weight loss in mid-2021. On top of that, it was the first GLP-1 medicine to get the regulator's nod for obesity, and particularly in the pharmaceutical world, being a first mover is quite the advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2021 年中旬美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准 Wegovy 用于减肥以来，该药物一直是一个极受欢迎的治疗选择。此外，它是首个获得监管机构批准用于肥胖的 GLP-1 药物，尤其在制药界，成为首个进入市场的产品是相当大的优势。</p>
</div><p>But with a product that quickly garnered a lot of attention, it was inevitable that other drug developers would concoct their own competitors. Enter American healthcare giant <strong>Eli Lilly</strong>, which in November 2023 brought its own obesity jab to market following FDA approval of Zepbound (related to its diabetes jab Mounjaro, as Wegovy is to Ozempic).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着这一产品迅速获得大量关注，其他药物开发商不可避免地会推出自己的竞争产品。美国医疗巨头 <strong>礼来</strong> 在 2023 年 11 月推出了自己的肥胖注射剂 Zepbound，获得 FDA 批准，类似于其糖尿病药物 Mounjaro，就像 Wegovy 与 Ozempic 的关系。</p>
</div><p>The American company plowed its considerable resources into bringing Zepbound to pharmacy shelves, and marketing it aggressively. Not surprisingly, this effort has been a success. In terms of sales, Zepbound recently overtook Wegovy, with nearly $3.4 billion of sales in the second quarter against Wegovy's take of slightly more than $3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家美国公司投入了大量资源将 Zepbound 推向药房，并进行了积极的市场营销。不出所料，这一努力取得了成功。在销售方面，Zepbound 最近超越了 Wegovy，第二季度的销售额接近 34 亿美元，而 Wegovy 的销售额略超过 30 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>As if Eli Lilly wasn't enough of a challenge, Novo Nordisk also has to cope with third-party compounders (i.e., entities that make custom medicines). Weight loss drugs were so hot that the FDA declared in 2022 there was a shortage of semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic's foundational molecule).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果说礼来还不够具有挑战性，诺和诺德还必须应对第三方配方商（即制造定制药物的实体）。减肥药物如此火热，以至于 FDA 在 2022 年宣布出现了 semaglutide（Wegovy/Ozempic 的基础分子）短缺。</p>
</div><p>To address the situation, the regulator allowed compounders to mix the molecule and sell the medicine. The shortage was declared at the end of February, with compounders ordered to halt production within months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了解决这一情况，监管机构允许配方商混合该分子并销售药物。短缺声明于 2 月底发布，配方商被要求在几个月内停止生产。</p>
</div><p>Easier said than done, however; there seem to be legal gray areas inside which compounders feel they can continue to make the drug. So they remain a headache for the Danish company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，事情并非易事；配方商似乎在法律灰色地带中感到可以继续生产该药物。因此，他们仍然是这家丹麦公司的一个头痛问题。</p>
</div><p>Tirzepatide, the foundational molecule of Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro, was also declared to be in shortage by the FDA. However, it rescinded this designation, roughly two years after imposing it, in December 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来 Zepbound 和 Mounjaro 的基础分子 Tirzepatide 也被 FDA 宣布为短缺。然而，在施加这一声明约两年后，FDA 于 2024 年 12 月撤回了这一声明。</p>
</div><p>With these headwinds buffeting it, Novo Nordisk has dialed down expectations for its performance. In mid-summer, it reduced its guidance for full-year sales growth to 8% to 14%. While that would be the envy of many a healthcare company, it's significantly down from the previous forecast of 13% to 21%. It also reduced its growth guidance for operating profit. Operationally, it announced in mid-September it was reducing its workforce by around 9,000 people.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些逆风的影响下，诺和诺德已降低了对其业绩的预期。在夏季中旬，它将全年销售增长的指导下调至 8% 至 14%。虽然这对许多医疗公司来说是令人羡慕的，但与之前 13% 至 21% 的预测相比，显著下降。它还降低了运营利润的增长指导。该公司在 9 月中旬宣布将裁员约 9000 人。</p>
</div><h2>Putting up a good fight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>进行顽强斗争</h2>
</div><p>Yet, Novo Nordisk is a veteran company that's been on the scene for many decades, and has contended with difficulties before. It's fighting back against the compounders, disclosing in August that it has filed lawsuits in the U.S. against 14 entities concocting bespoke versions of semaglutide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，诺和诺德是一家在市场上存在多年的老牌公司，曾经应对过困难。它正在对抗配方商，并在 8 月披露已在美国对 14 家制造定制 semaglutide 版本的实体提起诉讼。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Wegovy seems to be matching up well against Zepbound, at least in the lab. A recent head-to-head, real-world study conducted by Novo Nordisk favored the former.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Wegovy 似乎在实验室中与 Zepbound 的对比表现良好。诺和诺德最近进行的一项头对头的真实世界研究支持了前者。</p>
</div><p>The company found that Wegovy &#34;showed a significant 57% greater reduction in the risk of heart attack, stroke or death from any cause, in people with overweight or obesity and cardiovascular disease.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司发现，Wegovy 在超重或肥胖且患有心血管疾病的人群中，“心脏病发作、中风或任何原因导致死亡的风险显著降低了 57%。”</p>
</div><p>GLP-1 drugs have shown notable promise in treating indications other than diabetes and obesity. While that head-to-head study has its caveats, it does put Wegovy in a comparatively better light than its upstart rival.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GLP-1 药物在治疗糖尿病和肥胖以外的适应症方面显示出显著的潜力。尽管这项头对头研究有其局限性，但它确实使 Wegovy 相较于其新兴竞争对手显得更具优势。</p>
</div><p>On top of that a phase 3 trial of Eli Lilly's investigational weight loss pill orforglipron yielded disappointing results, placing the company another step behind in the Great Obesity Drug Race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，礼来正在研发的减肥药物 orforglipron 的三期试验结果令人失望，使得该公司在伟大的肥胖药物竞赛中又落后了一步。</p>
</div><p>These developments are recent, and I feel they haven't been properly priced into Novo Nordisk stock yet (as opposed to the negative developments). The stock trades at a forward P/E of less than 13, which seems rather low given the still-robust growth of Wegovy (which saw a 67% year-over-year jump in sales).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些发展是近期的，我觉得它们尚未被充分反映在诺和诺德的股票中（与负面发展相反）。该股票的前瞻市盈率低于 13，考虑到 Wegovy 仍然强劲的增长（销售额同比增长 67%），这一估值似乎相当低。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the stock is looking undervalued these days, so in my mind it's definitely a buy candidate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，该股票目前看起来被低估，因此在我看来，它绝对是一个买入候选。</p>
</div>

为什么大家都在讨论诺和诺德公司的股票？