<p>美国抵押贷款市场正经历多年来未见的复苏，借贷成本的急剧下降促使了一波再融资活动，提前迎接市场普遍预期的联邦储备利率下调——这表明房主并不等待政策确认就锁定节省。</p>
<p>根据抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）的新数据，截至 9 月 12 日的一周，总抵押贷款申请量较前一周激增 29.7%。</p>
<p>这是自 1 月份以来最大的周增幅，也是自 2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 危机期间历史性利率崩溃以来的第二大增幅。</p>
<h2>随着抵押贷款利率下降，再融资热潮爆发</h2>
<p>这一激增恰逢基准 30 年期固定抵押贷款利率显著下降 10 个基点，降至 6.39%，为近一年来的最低水平。再融资活动引领了这一波浪潮，MBA 的抵押贷款再融资指数从前一周的 1,012.4 飙升 57.7% 至 1,596.7，这是自 2022 年 3 月以来的最高读数。</p>
<p>根据 MBA 首席经济学家 <strong>Mike Fratantoni</strong> 的说法，这一举动表明借款人正在提前行动，以期待更低的利率。</p>
<p>“房主反应迅速，再融资申请量较前一周几乎增长了 60%，” Fratantoni 说。</p>
<p>“贷款额度较大的房主首先行动，因为再融资的平均贷款额度达到了我们调查 35 年历史以来的最高水平，” 他补充道。</p>
<h2>图表：抵押贷款再融资指数在联邦储备利率变动前飙升</h2>
<h2>市场在联邦储备之前已做出反应</h2>
<p>Fratantoni 强调，设定长期抵押贷款利率的债券市场对联邦储备的鸽派倾向做出了早期反应。</p>
<p>尽管联邦储备在周三仅正式将利率下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，但国债收益率和抵押贷款利率已经开始下降。</p>
<p>“抵押贷款利率以及长期国债在这一鸽派货币政策转变之前就已达到今年的最低点，” 他说。</p>
<p>“如果抵押贷款利率保持在这些水平，发放活动将会增加，无论是对于过去三年内购房的房主，还是对于潜在的购房者。”</p>
<h2>联邦储备暗示未来将进一步降息</h2>
<p>在其更新的预测中，联邦储备暗示 2025 年将再降两次息，2026 年再降一次，同时也承认劳动力市场疲软。</p>
<p>Fratantoni 将这一政策举动描述为谨慎，强调联邦储备努力支持就业而不引发对经济状况的恐慌。</p>
<p>尽管 25 个基点的降息并非一致通过——特朗普任命的联邦储备理事 <strong>Stephen Miran</strong> 支持更大幅度的 50 个基点降息，但大多数政策制定者支持这种渐进的方式。</p>
<p>随着抵押贷款利率的放松和对进一步降息的预期加剧，再融资活动可能在年末保持强劲。</p>
<p>住房库存的增加、更加有利的借贷成本以及改善的经济背景的结合，可能也会为购房市场注入新活力，而该市场在过去两年中因 20 年来最高的抵押贷款利率而受到压制。</p>
<h2>市场反应：房地产股票仍然停滞不前</h2>
<p>尽管抵押贷款激增，房地产股票尚未反映出改善的利率环境。</p>
<p><strong>房地产选择行业 SPDR 基金</strong> XLRE 在周三连续四个交易日下跌，今年迄今仅上涨 3%，显著落后于大盘。相比之下，<strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong> VOO 在同一时期上涨近 12%。</p>
<p>住宅房地产板块表现更差。<strong>住宅 REIT ETF</strong> HAUS 今年迄今下跌 8%，而 <strong>iShares 住宅和多行业房地产 ETF</strong> REZ 则基本持平。</p>
<p>投资者对房地产股票的情绪仍然谨慎，许多人在等待租金稳定、入住率增长和对联邦储备下一步行动的更清晰信号。但如果低利率持续，再融资热潮提升住房需求，房地产股票可能会迎来久违的反弹。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>历史警示：标准普尔 500 指数在联邦储备降息后往往下滑</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>照片：bilanol/shutterstock</em></p>

AOMR

<p>美国抵押贷款市场正在经历显著复苏，抵押贷款申请量因借贷成本下降而增加了 29.7%，这主要是由于市场预期美联储将降息。30 年期固定抵押贷款利率降至 6.39%，促使再融资活动上升了 57.7%。尽管如此，房地产股票表现不佳，投资者情绪依然谨慎。美联储最近的降息及未来降息的预测可能会支持持续的再融资，并有可能振兴住房市场，尽管房地产股依然疲软</p>

<p>The U.S. mortgage market is experiencing a resurgence not seen in years, as a sharp drop in borrowing costs prompted a wave of refinancing activity ahead of the Federal Reserve's widely expected interest rate cut—signaling that homeowners aren't waiting for policy confirmation to lock in savings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国抵押贷款市场正经历多年来未见的复苏，借贷成本的急剧下降促使了一波再融资活动，提前迎接市场普遍预期的联邦储备利率下调——这表明房主并不等待政策确认就锁定节省。</p>
</div><p>During the week ending Sept. 12, total mortgage application volume jumped 29.7% from the prior week, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）的新数据，截至 9 月 12 日的一周，总抵押贷款申请量较前一周激增 29.7%。</p>
</div><p>That's the largest weekly gain since January and the second-sharpest increase since the historic rate collapse during the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是自 1 月份以来最大的周增幅，也是自 2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 危机期间历史性利率崩溃以来的第二大增幅。</p>
</div><h2>Refi Frenzy Breaks Out as Mortgage Rates Fall</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>随着抵押贷款利率下降，再融资热潮爆发</h2>
</div><p>The surge coincided with a notable 10 basis point drop in the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which fell to 6.39%, the lowest level in nearly a year. Refinancing activity led the wave, with the MBA's Mortgage Refinance Index skyrocketing 57.7% to 1,596.7, from 1,012.4 the week prior—its highest reading since March 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一激增恰逢基准 30 年期固定抵押贷款利率显著下降 10 个基点，降至 6.39%，为近一年来的最低水平。再融资活动引领了这一波浪潮，MBA 的抵押贷款再融资指数从前一周的 1,012.4 飙升 57.7% 至 1,596.7，这是自 2022 年 3 月以来的最高读数。</p>
</div><p>According to MBA chief economist <strong>Mike Fratantoni,</strong> this move shows borrowers are moving ahead of monetary policy in anticipation of lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 MBA 首席经济学家 <strong>Mike Fratantoni</strong> 的说法，这一举动表明借款人正在提前行动，以期待更低的利率。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Homeowners responded swiftly, with refinance application volume jumping almost 60 percent compared to the prior week,&#34; Fratantoni said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“房主反应迅速，再融资申请量较前一周几乎增长了 60%，” Fratantoni 说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“贷款额度较大的房主首先行动，因为再融资的平均贷款额度达到了我们调查 35 年历史以来的最高水平，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><h2>Chart: Mortgage Refinance Index Rockets Ahead Of Fed Rate Move</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>图表：抵押贷款再融资指数在联邦储备利率变动前飙升</h2>
</div><h2>Market Moved Ahead Of The Fed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场在联邦储备之前已做出反应</h2>
</div><p>Fratantoni highlighted that the bond market, which sets long-term mortgage rates, reacted early to the Federal Reserve's dovish tilt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fratantoni 强调，设定长期抵押贷款利率的债券市场对联邦储备的鸽派倾向做出了早期反应。</p>
</div><p>Despite the Fed only officially cutting rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on Wednesday, Treasury yields and mortgage rates had already begun their descent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管联邦储备在周三仅正式将利率下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，但国债收益率和抵押贷款利率已经开始下降。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Mortgage rates, along with longer-term Treasuries moving in advance of this dovish shift in monetary policy, reached their lowest point for the year last week,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“抵押贷款利率以及长期国债在这一鸽派货币政策转变之前就已达到今年的最低点，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If mortgage rates hold at these levels, origination activity will be boosted, both for homeowners who purchased in the last three years and for potential homebuyers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果抵押贷款利率保持在这些水平，发放活动将会增加，无论是对于过去三年内购房的房主，还是对于潜在的购房者。”</p>
</div><h2>Fed Signals More Cuts Ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>联邦储备暗示未来将进一步降息</h2>
</div><p>In its updated projections, the Fed signaled two additional cuts in 2025 and another in 2026, while also acknowledging a weaker labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其更新的预测中，联邦储备暗示 2025 年将再降两次息，2026 年再降一次，同时也承认劳动力市场疲软。</p>
</div><p>Fratantoni described the policy move as measured, highlighting the Fed's effort to support employment without triggering panic about economic conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fratantoni 将这一政策举动描述为谨慎，强调联邦储备努力支持就业而不引发对经济状况的恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Though the 25-basis-point rate cut was not unanimous—with Trump-appointed Fed Governor <strong>Stephen Miran</strong> favoring a larger 50-basis-point move—the majority of policymakers supported the gradual approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 25 个基点的降息并非一致通过——特朗普任命的联邦储备理事 <strong>Stephen Miran</strong> 支持更大幅度的 50 个基点降息，但大多数政策制定者支持这种渐进的方式。</p>
</div><p>With mortgage rates easing and expectations for further rate cuts building, refinancing could remain strong through year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着抵押贷款利率的放松和对进一步降息的预期加剧，再融资活动可能在年末保持强劲。</p>
</div><p>The combination of rising housing inventory, more favorable borrowing costs, and an improving economic backdrop may also breathe new life into the purchase market, which has struggled under the weight of 20-year high mortgage rates over the past two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住房库存的增加、更加有利的借贷成本以及改善的经济背景的结合，可能也会为购房市场注入新活力，而该市场在过去两年中因 20 年来最高的抵押贷款利率而受到压制。</p>
</div><h2>Market Reactions: Real Estate Stocks Still Stuck</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场反应：房地产股票仍然停滞不前</h2>
</div><p>Despite the mortgage surge, real estate stocks have yet to reflect the improving rate environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管抵押贷款激增，房地产股票尚未反映出改善的利率环境。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> XLRE has fallen for four straight sessions through Wednesday and is up just 3% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the broader market. For comparison, the <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO has rallied nearly 12% in the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>房地产选择行业 SPDR 基金</strong> XLRE 在周三连续四个交易日下跌，今年迄今仅上涨 3%，显著落后于大盘。相比之下，<strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong> VOO 在同一时期上涨近 12%。</p>
</div><p>The residential real estate sector has fared even worse. The <strong>Residential REIT ETF</strong> HAUS is down 8% year-to-date, while the <strong>iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF</strong> REZ is broadly flat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住宅房地产板块表现更差。<strong>住宅 REIT ETF</strong> HAUS 今年迄今下跌 8%，而 <strong>iShares 住宅和多行业房地产 ETF</strong> REZ 则基本持平。</p>
</div><p>Investor sentiment toward property stocks remains cautious, with many waiting for tangible signs of rent stabilization, occupancy growth, and more clarity on the Fed's next moves. But if lower rates persist and the refinance boom lifts housing demand, real estate equities may be poised for a long-overdue rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对房地产股票的情绪仍然谨慎，许多人在等待租金稳定、入住率增长和对联邦储备下一步行动的更清晰信号。但如果低利率持续，再融资热潮提升住房需求，房地产股票可能会迎来久违的反弹。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>History Warns: S&amp;P 500 Often Slips After Fed Rate Cuts</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>历史警示：标准普尔 500 指数在联邦储备降息后往往下滑</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: bilanol/shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：bilanol/shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

This Mortgage Boom Didn't Even Wait For The Fed To Say 'Cut'

- 美国抵押贷款市场因借贷成本下降而复苏，申请量增长 29.7%。  
- 30 年固定抵押贷款利率降至 6.39%，创近一年新低。  
- 预计进一步降息将推动再融资活动，购房市场也可能复苏。  

这次抵押贷款热潮甚至在美联储宣布 ‘降息’ 之前就已经开始了