<p>华尔街是财富创造的热土，而没有人比 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.42%）（BRK.B -0.35%）的亿万富翁首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特更了解这一点。</p>
<p>六十年前，被恰当地称为 “奥马哈的先知” 的巴菲特在伯克希尔担任首席角色。在他的领导下，截至 9 月 15 日的午盘交易，伯克希尔的 A 类股票（BRK.A）上涨了近 5,940,000%。作为比较，基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在同一 60 年期间上涨了约 44,000%，包括股息。</p>
<p>巴菲特善于发现隐藏在明面上的价值，这使他赢得了大量追随者——如果每年有超过 40,000 人涌向奥马哈参加伯克希尔哈撒韦的股东大会还不足以说明问题的话。有些投资者甚至选择模仿他的买卖活动。</p>
<p>但在一个奇怪的转折中，沃伦·巴菲特对他最喜欢的股票采取了冷火鸡策略——这是一家公司，他花费了约 780 亿美元在七年内购买——而且似乎无法停止购买华尔街少数几家上市合法垄断公司的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2OTkvYnVmZmV0dDEzLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2OTkvYnVmZmV0dDEzLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>沃伦·巴菲特至少在 13 个月内没有购买他最喜欢的股票</h2>
<p>通常，追踪奥马哈的先知正在买卖哪些股票的最简单方法是参考伯克希尔哈撒韦最新的 13F 表格，向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交。这是对至少管理有 1 亿美元资产的机构投资者的季度报告。截止到本文撰写时，巴菲特在伯克希尔管理的投资组合价值超过 3020 亿美元。</p>
<p>当伯克希尔在一家上市公司持有 10% 或更大股份时，投资者也可以通过向 SEC 提交的 4 号表格获得买卖活动的更新。所有买卖活动，包括平均收购/处置价格，必须在交易后的两个工作日内提交。</p>
<p>但沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股票的有趣之处在于，你不会在伯克希尔的季度 13F 或其 4 号表格中找到它。相反，你需要查看公司的季度运营结果，以了解巴菲特是否进行了购买。</p>
<p>在执行官认证之前，你会发现伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票回购活动的详细逐月分解……因为没有哪只股票比伯克希尔哈撒韦更能让沃伦·巴菲特花费更多公司的资本进行购买！</p>
<p>在 2018 年 7 月之前，只有当伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票价格跌至或低于 120% 的市净率（即不超过上市账面价值的 20%）时，才允许进行回购。由于它从未跌至这一阈值，因此没有一分钱用于回购。</p>
<p>2018 年 7 月 17 日，伯克希尔的董事会修改了其股票回购规则，允许巴菲特和当时的得力助手查理·芒格在公司拥有至少 300 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和美国国债，并且巴菲特认为股票内在便宜的情况下授权回购。</p>
<p>在连续 24 个季度（2018 年 7 月 1 日至 2024 年 6 月 30 日）中，巴菲特花费近 780 亿美元购买自己公司的股票，并将伯克希尔的流通股数量减少了超过 12%。对于净收入稳定或增长的公司（如伯克希尔），回购可以提升每股收益（EPS）。</p>
<p>但在连续 13 个月（2024 年 6 月至 2025 年 6 月）中，巴菲特对他最喜欢的股票采取了冷火鸡策略。原因很可能与估值有关。</p>
<p>伯克希尔的亿万富翁老板是一个坚定的价值投资者，显然连自己公司的股票也不例外。从 2018 年中到 2024 年中，伯克希尔的股票在账面价值的 30% 到 50% 之间波动，而在过去的 13 个月中，它的股票大部分时间处于账面价值的 60% 到 80% 的溢价状态。即使伯克希尔的现金储备（包括美国国债）接近创纪录的 3441 亿美元，巴菲特目前也没有购买自己公司股票的意愿。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2OTkvc2lyaXVzeG0taW4tZGFzaC1yYWRpby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2OTkvc2lyaXVzeG0taW4tZGFzaC1yYWRpby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Sirius XM。</p>
<h2>这个合法垄断已成为奥马哈先知的新宠</h2>
<p>除了不购买他最喜欢的股票外，沃伦·巴菲特在连续 11 个季度中净卖出股票，累计金额达到 1774 亿美元。然而，在这种持续的卖出活动中，他发现了一只他无法停止购买的股票——这是一家真正的合法垄断公司。</p>
<p>根据 13F 和 4 号表格，我们知道奥马哈的先知似乎对卫星广播运营商 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>（SIRI -0.52%）情有独钟。巴菲特监督了从 7 月 31 日到 8 月 4 日增加超过 500 万股的交易，以及在 1 月底和 2 月初购买超过 230 万股的交易。总的来说，伯克希尔哈撒韦持有约 1.248 亿股 Sirius XM 的股票，这足以占该公司的 37.1% 股份。</p>
<p>沃伦·巴菲特非常喜欢拥有可持续竞争优势的公司，而 Sirius XM 正是如此。尽管它仍在与传统和在线广播竞争听众，但它是唯一拥有卫星广播许可证的公司。这使得该公司在订阅定价方面拥有传统广播提供商通常缺乏的能力。</p>
<p>然而，Sirius XM 最大的优势在于其收入结构。</p>
<p>大多数传统广播运营商的销售大部分来自广告。虽然广告驱动的模式没有问题，但在经济放缓和衰退期间，广播公司的情况可能会变得棘手，因为这时广告收入可能会大幅缩水。</p>
<p>与此同时，Sirius XM 在 2025 年上半年仅通过广告（通过 Pandora）获得了 19.6% 的净销售额。相比之下，76.8% 的净收入来自订阅。当经济衰退不可避免地出现时，Sirius XM 的订阅用户取消服务的可能性远低于企业减少营销预算的可能性。换句话说，Sirius XM 的运营现金流波动幅度通常低于其竞争对手，这一点是巴菲特绝对会欣赏的。</p>
<p>此外，Sirius XM 的成本结构相对可预测。尽管人才招聘和版权费用会季度波动，但设备和传输成本几乎保持不变，无论公司有多少订阅用户。这为 Sirius XM 的运营现金流的可预测性增加了另一个层面。</p>
<p>这个法律垄断的最后一块拼图是其引人注目的估值。随着标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率在超过 150 年的回测中达到第三高的倍数，Sirius XM 以仅 7.6 的历史低前瞻市盈率脱颖而出。</p>

天狼星XM广播

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在过去 13 个月里没有购买他最喜欢的股票，尽管自 2018 年以来他已经花费了 780 亿美元进行股票回购。这一暂停被归因于高估值，伯克希尔的股票交易价格比账面价值高出 60% 到 80%。相反，巴菲特将注意力转向了天狼星 XM 控股公司，这是一家合法的垄断企业，最近购买了超过 500 万股股票，而在过去 11 个季度中，净卖出总额达到了 1774 亿美元</p>

<p>Wall Street is a stomping ground for wealth creation, and few investors know this better than <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A -0.42%) (BRK.B -0.35%) billionaire CEO Warren Buffett.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街是财富创造的热土，而没有人比 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.42%）（BRK.B -0.35%）的亿万富翁首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特更了解这一点。</p>
</div><p>Six decades ago, the aptly dubbed Oracle of Omaha took the lead role at Berkshire. Under his watch, Berkshire's Class A shares (BRK.A) have rallied nearly 5,940,000%, as of midday trading on Sept. 15. For the sake of comparison, the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has risen by approximately 44,000%, including dividends, over the same 60-year stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>六十年前，被恰当地称为 “奥马哈的先知” 的巴菲特在伯克希尔担任首席角色。在他的领导下，截至 9 月 15 日的午盘交易，伯克希尔的 A 类股票（BRK.A）上涨了近 5,940,000%。作为比较，基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在同一 60 年期间上涨了约 44,000%，包括股息。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's knack for finding value hiding in plain sight has earned him a huge following -- in case the 40,000-plus people flocking to Omaha annually for Berkshire Hathaway's shareholder meeting didn't give it away. Some investors even choose to mirror his buying and selling activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特善于发现隐藏在明面上的价值，这使他赢得了大量追随者——如果每年有超过 40,000 人涌向奥马哈参加伯克希尔哈撒韦的股东大会还不足以说明问题的话。有些投资者甚至选择模仿他的买卖活动。</p>
</div><p>But in a strange twist, Warren Buffett has gone cold turkey on his favorite stock -- a company he's spent approximately $78 billion buying spanning seven years -- and can't seem to stop buying shares of one of Wall Street's few publicly traded legal monopolies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在一个奇怪的转折中，沃伦·巴菲特对他最喜欢的股票采取了冷火鸡策略——这是一家公司，他花费了约 780 亿美元在七年内购买——而且似乎无法停止购买华尔街少数几家上市合法垄断公司的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2OTkvYnVmZmV0dDEzLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833699%2Fbuffett13-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Warren Buffett hasn't purchased shares of his favorite stock in at least 13 months</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃伦·巴菲特至少在 13 个月内没有购买他最喜欢的股票</h2>
</div><p>Usually, the easiest way to track which stocks the Oracle of Omaha is buying and selling is to refer to Berkshire Hathaway's latest Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is a required quarterly filing for institutional investors with at least $100 million in assets under management. The portfolio Buffett oversees at Berkshire clocked in with a value north of $302 billion, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，追踪奥马哈的先知正在买卖哪些股票的最简单方法是参考伯克希尔哈撒韦最新的 13F 表格，向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交。这是对至少管理有 1 亿美元资产的机构投资者的季度报告。截止到本文撰写时，巴菲特在伯克希尔管理的投资组合价值超过 3020 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Investors can also receive updates on buying and selling activity when Berkshire holds a 10% or greater stake in a public company via Form 4 filings with the SEC. All buying and selling activity, including the average acquisition/disposition price, is required to be filed within two business days of the transaction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当伯克希尔在一家上市公司持有 10% 或更大股份时，投资者也可以通过向 SEC 提交的 4 号表格获得买卖活动的更新。所有买卖活动，包括平均收购/处置价格，必须在交易后的两个工作日内提交。</p>
</div><p>But the interesting quirk with Warren Buffett's favorite stock is you won't find it listed in Berkshire's quarterly 13F or its Form 4s. Rather, you'll need to peruse the company's quarterly operating results to see if Buffett has been a buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股票的有趣之处在于，你不会在伯克希尔的季度 13F 或其 4 号表格中找到它。相反，你需要查看公司的季度运营结果，以了解巴菲特是否进行了购买。</p>
</div><p>Just prior to the executive certifications, you'll find a detailed month-by-month breakdown of Berkshire Hathaway's share repurchase activity... because there's no stock Warren Buffett has spent more of his company's capital buying than Berkshire Hathaway!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在执行官认证之前，你会发现伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票回购活动的详细逐月分解……因为没有哪只股票比伯克希尔哈撒韦更能让沃伦·巴菲特花费更多公司的资本进行购买！</p>
</div><p>Prior to July 2018, buybacks were only allowed if Berkshire Hathaway stock fell to or below a price-to-book ratio of 120% (i.e., no more than 20% above listed book value). Since it never fell to this threshold, not a penny was spent on buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2018 年 7 月之前，只有当伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票价格跌至或低于 120% 的市净率（即不超过上市账面价值的 20%）时，才允许进行回购。由于它从未跌至这一阈值，因此没有一分钱用于回购。</p>
</div><p>On July 17, 2018, Berkshire's board amended its share repurchase rules to allow Buffett and then right-hand man Charlie Munger to authorize buybacks as long as the company had at least $30 billion in combined cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasuries, and Buffett believed shares were intrinsically cheap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2018 年 7 月 17 日，伯克希尔的董事会修改了其股票回购规则，允许巴菲特和当时的得力助手查理·芒格在公司拥有至少 300 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和美国国债，并且巴菲特认为股票内在便宜的情况下授权回购。</p>
</div><p>For 24 consecutive quarters (July 1, 2018 – June 30, 2024), Buffett spent close to $78 billion purchasing his own company's stock and reducing Berkshire's outstanding share count by more than 12%. For companies with steady or growing net income (like Berkshire), buybacks can boost earnings per share (EPS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在连续 24 个季度（2018 年 7 月 1 日至 2024 年 6 月 30 日）中，巴菲特花费近 780 亿美元购买自己公司的股票，并将伯克希尔的流通股数量减少了超过 12%。对于净收入稳定或增长的公司（如伯克希尔），回购可以提升每股收益（EPS）。</p>
</div><p>But for 13 consecutive months (June 2024 through June 2025), Buffett has gone cold turkey on his favorite stock. The reason most likely has to do with valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在连续 13 个月（2024 年 6 月至 2025 年 6 月）中，巴菲特对他最喜欢的股票采取了冷火鸡策略。原因很可能与估值有关。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's billionaire boss is a diehard value investor, and apparently not even shares of his own company are an exception. Whereas Berkshire stock vacillated between a 30% and 50% premium to book value from mid-2018 to mid-2024, it's spent much of the last 13 months at a 60% to 80% premium to book value. Even with Berkshire's cash pile (including U.S. Treasuries) at a near-record $344.1 billion, Buffett has no desire to buy back his own company's stock at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔的亿万富翁老板是一个坚定的价值投资者，显然连自己公司的股票也不例外。从 2018 年中到 2024 年中，伯克希尔的股票在账面价值的 30% 到 50% 之间波动，而在过去的 13 个月中，它的股票大部分时间处于账面价值的 60% 到 80% 的溢价状态。即使伯克希尔的现金储备（包括美国国债）接近创纪录的 3441 亿美元，巴菲特目前也没有购买自己公司股票的意愿。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM2OTkvc2lyaXVzeG0taW4tZGFzaC1yYWRpby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833699%2Fsiriusxm-in-dash-radio.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Sirius XM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Sirius XM。</p>
</div><h2>This legal monopoly has become the new apple of the Oracle of Omaha's eye</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这个合法垄断已成为奥马哈先知的新宠</h2>
</div><p>In addition to not buying shares of his favorite stock, Warren Buffett has been a net-seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, to the cumulative tune of $177.4 billion. Yet amid this persistent selling activity, he has found one stock that he can't stock buying -- and it's a bona fide legal monopoly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了不购买他最喜欢的股票外，沃伦·巴菲特在连续 11 个季度中净卖出股票，累计金额达到 1774 亿美元。然而，在这种持续的卖出活动中，他发现了一只他无法停止购买的股票——这是一家真正的合法垄断公司。</p>
</div><p>Based on 13Fs and Form 4s, we know the Oracle of Omaha can't seem to get enough of satellite-radio operator <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI -0.52%). Buffett oversaw the addition of more than 5 million shares from July 31 to Aug. 4, as well as the purchase of more than 2.3 million shares in late January and early February. All told, Berkshire Hathaway holds around 124.8 million shares of Sirius XM stock, which is good enough for a 37.1% stake in the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 13F 和 4 号表格，我们知道奥马哈的先知似乎对卫星广播运营商 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>（SIRI -0.52%）情有独钟。巴菲特监督了从 7 月 31 日到 8 月 4 日增加超过 500 万股的交易，以及在 1 月底和 2 月初购买超过 230 万股的交易。总的来说，伯克希尔哈撒韦持有约 1.248 亿股 Sirius XM 的股票，这足以占该公司的 37.1% 股份。</p>
</div><p>Warren Buffett is a huge fan of companies with sustainable competitive moats, and Sirius XM delivers. Although it still competes for listeners with terrestrial and online radio, it's the lone holder of satellite-radio licenses. This affords the company a level of subscription pricing power that traditional radio providers typically lack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特非常喜欢拥有可持续竞争优势的公司，而 Sirius XM 正是如此。尽管它仍在与传统和在线广播竞争听众，但它是唯一拥有卫星广播许可证的公司。这使得该公司在订阅定价方面拥有传统广播提供商通常缺乏的能力。</p>
</div><p>However, Sirius XM's biggest edge has to do with its revenue mix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Sirius XM 最大的优势在于其收入结构。</p>
</div><p>Most traditional radio operators generate the lion's share of their sales from advertising. While there's nothing wrong with an ad-driven model, things can get dicey for radio companies during economic slowdowns and recessions, which is when advertising revenue can shrink considerably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数传统广播运营商的销售大部分来自广告。虽然广告驱动的模式没有问题，但在经济放缓和衰退期间，广播公司的情况可能会变得棘手，因为这时广告收入可能会大幅缩水。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Sirius XM brought in only 19.6% of its net sales from advertising (via Pandora) through the first-half of 2025. In comparison, 76.8% of its net revenue traced back to subscriptions. When recessions inevitably arise, Sirius XM's subscribers are far less likely to cancel their service than businesses are to reduce their marketing budgets. In other words, Sirius XM's operating cash flow tends to have fewer peaks and valleys than its competitors, which is something Buffett can definitely appreciate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Sirius XM 在 2025 年上半年仅通过广告（通过 Pandora）获得了 19.6% 的净销售额。相比之下，76.8% 的净收入来自订阅。当经济衰退不可避免地出现时，Sirius XM 的订阅用户取消服务的可能性远低于企业减少营销预算的可能性。换句话说，Sirius XM 的运营现金流波动幅度通常低于其竞争对手，这一点是巴菲特绝对会欣赏的。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Sirius XM has a fairly predictable cost structure. Though talent acquisition and royalty expenses will fluctuate on a quarterly basis, equipment and transmission costs remain close to static regardless of how many subscribers the company has. This adds another level to Sirius XM's operating cash flow predictability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Sirius XM 的成本结构相对可预测。尽管人才招聘和版权费用会季度波动，但设备和传输成本几乎保持不变，无论公司有多少订阅用户。这为 Sirius XM 的运营现金流的可预测性增加了另一个层面。</p>
</div><p>The final piece of the puzzle with this legal monopoly is its eyebrow-raising valuation. With the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) Ratio hitting its third-priciest multiple when back-tested more than 150 years, Sirius XM stands out for its historically low forward P/E of just 7.6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个法律垄断的最后一块拼图是其引人注目的估值。随着标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率在超过 150 年的回测中达到第三高的倍数，Sirius XM 以仅 7.6 的历史低前瞻市盈率脱颖而出。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Has Bought $78 Billion Worth of His Favorite Stock in 7 Years -- but He Currently Prefers Shares of This Legal Monopoly Instead

- 巴菲特在过去 13 个月未购买其最爱的股票。  
- 他在 11 个季度内净卖出股票，总计 1774 亿美元。  
- 目前，巴菲特持续增持卫星广播公司 Sirius XM 的股份。  

沃伦·巴菲特在过去 7 年中购买了价值 780 亿美元的他钟爱的股票——然而现在他更倾向于投资这家合法垄断企业的股票