<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.53%) 在上半年的财务业绩令人印象深刻。其强劲的增长得益于强大的广告需求和活跃的用户基础，涵盖了其社交媒体应用程序。该公司拥有 Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp、Messenger 和 Threads，并在人工智能 (AI) 和创新广告格式上进行了重大投资——同时收入和收益也在飙升。难怪市场一直在买入该股票。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 仍然是全球最大的数字广告销售商之一——一个以广告为主的业务，当市场营销人员支出时可以快速增长，而当他们收缩时也会迅速回落。然而，这种强劲与脆弱的混合正是关键所在。尽管 Meta 在核心广告方面的执行最近令人印象深刻，但有两个结构性现实使其盈利能力比所谓的 &#34;七大巨头&#34; 更加波动：对广告周期的暴露和对主要由 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 控制的分发的依赖。再加上对用户注意力的可信竞争，Meta 的市盈率在 20 多倍的水平是合理的，而其他公司则获得更高的溢价。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5ODcvbWV0YS1wbGF0Zm9ybXMtc3RvY2suanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5ODcvbWV0YS1wbGF0Zm9ybXMtc3RvY2suanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>以广告驱动的动能及其局限性</h2>
<p>Meta 最近的业绩表现强劲。在 2025 年第二季度，收入同比增长 22% 达到 475 亿美元，运营收入增长 38%，运营利润率扩大至 43%，因为广告需求保持健康。管理层在公司随后的第二季度财报电话会议中还指出，需求在各个垂直领域和地理区域广泛存在，小型广告客户也为增长做出了贡献。</p>
<p>为什么像这样的企业不会在市盈率上达到三十倍？关键在于集中度。Meta 的几乎所有收入都来自广告，这些结果随着市场营销预算的波动而波动。广告往往表现得像一种周期性支出：当增长恐惧上升时，许多品牌和直接响应广告客户会迅速削减支出。这种动态可能会比那些收入更具重复性、合同性或多样化的企业更突然地压缩 Meta 的收入和运营杠杆。</p>
<h2>平台依赖性</h2>
<p>Meta 的第二个结构性风险是分发。Meta 的产品依赖于其无法控制的移动操作系统和应用商店。在其年度报告中，该公司警告称，Apple 或 Alphabet 的变化可能会限制其定位和测量广告的能力，降低产品功能，甚至使访问其应用程序变得更加困难——并且 Apple 自 2021 年以来的 iOS 变更对广告表现和收入产生了负面影响。Apple 的应用追踪透明度框架正式化了用户对跨应用追踪的选择，说明了单一平台政策如何在 Meta 的广告系统中产生连锁反应。这些并不是理论上的担忧；它们是已经影响结果并可能再次影响的已记录因素。</p>
<h2>对年轻一代的争夺战</h2>
<p>对注意力的竞争依然真实。TikTok 的快速崛起表明新的社交平台可以迅速赢得市场份额，而 <strong>Snap</strong> 的 Snapchat 在美国青少年中仍然非常受欢迎，与 Instagram 并驾齐驱。Meta 通过 Reels 和推荐改进做出了良好的回应——最近的季度反映了这一点——但争夺时间和注意力的竞争比以往任何时候都更加激烈。</p>
<p>虽然 Snap 可能最初看起来对 Meta 不是威胁，但值得注意的是，该公司的日活跃用户正在快速增长。在第二季度，Snap 的日活跃用户同比增长 9%。此外，该公司的月活跃用户数量接近 10 亿。</p>
<h2>这对估值意味着什么</h2>
<p>一个 (1) 依赖于可自由支配的广告预算，(2) 依赖外部平台进行分发和一些关键数据信号，(3) 面临来自竞争对手的可信关注的企业，其估值应低于平台所有者或拥有更多多样化、合同性或公用事业型现金流的公司。目前，Meta 的市盈率大约在 20 多倍的高位，低于 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（最近均在低至中 30 倍之间），略高于 Alphabet，后者的市盈率约为 27 倍。这种差距大致是合理的。Microsoft 和 Amazon 更依赖于订阅、企业和云支出，而 Alphabet 则有一个以广告为主的业务。尽管如此，我认为 Alphabet 理应比 Meta 交易更高的倍数。尽管其业务在很大程度上依赖于广告，但它受益于更广泛的组合，包括快速增长的云业务和对 Android 平台的控制。</p>
<p>是的，如果用户参与度保持不变且广告工具不断改善，Meta 股票可能会继续复合增长。此外，Meta 似乎始终为风险做好准备，保持健康的资产负债表——这可能在经济疲软时期帮助它。但其收入的性质及其与守门人的关系意味着，总有可能出现宏观疲软、新的隐私规则或政策变化比预期更快地影响业绩。因此，广告的周期性、平台的暴露以及对注意力的激烈竞争，表明市场在市盈率维持在 20 多倍的水平是明智的，即使业绩依然强劲。</p>

META

<p>Meta Platforms 在上半年展现了强劲的财务业绩，得益于强劲的广告需求。然而，由于依赖广告周期以及受苹果和 Alphabet 控制的分发，其盈利能力比同行更具波动性。尽管增长令人印象深刻，Meta 的市盈率仍在 20 倍区间，低于其他 “七大巨头” 公司，这反映了其对可自由支配广告预算的依赖以及来自 TikTok 和 Snap 等平台的竞争。该公司保持着健康的资产负债表，但面临宏观经济因素和政策变化带来的风险</p>

<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.53%) financial results have been impressive in the first half of the year. Its strong growth has been fueled by robust advertising demand and an engaged user base across its social media apps. The company, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Threads, is making significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and innovative ad formats -- all while revenue and earnings are soaring. No wonder the Street has been buying up the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.53%) 在上半年的财务业绩令人印象深刻。其强劲的增长得益于强大的广告需求和活跃的用户基础，涵盖了其社交媒体应用程序。该公司拥有 Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp、Messenger 和 Threads，并在人工智能 (AI) 和创新广告格式上进行了重大投资——同时收入和收益也在飙升。难怪市场一直在买入该股票。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms remains one of the world's largest digital ad sellers -- an advertising-led business that can grow quickly when marketers spend and pull back just as fast when they don't. That mix of strength and fragility, however, is the point here. While Meta's execution in core ads has been impressive lately, two structural realities make its earnings power more volatile than peers in the so-called &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34;: exposure to advertising cycles and reliance on distribution largely controlled by <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong>. Add in credible competition for user attention, and it's reasonable that Meta's price-to-earnings multiple sits in the 20s while others command richer premiums.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 仍然是全球最大的数字广告销售商之一——一个以广告为主的业务，当市场营销人员支出时可以快速增长，而当他们收缩时也会迅速回落。然而，这种强劲与脆弱的混合正是关键所在。尽管 Meta 在核心广告方面的执行最近令人印象深刻，但有两个结构性现实使其盈利能力比所谓的 &#34;七大巨头&#34; 更加波动：对广告周期的暴露和对主要由 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 控制的分发的依赖。再加上对用户注意力的可信竞争，Meta 的市盈率在 20 多倍的水平是合理的，而其他公司则获得更高的溢价。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5ODcvbWV0YS1wbGF0Zm9ybXMtc3RvY2suanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833987%2Fmeta-platforms-stock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Ad-driven momentum -- and its limits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以广告驱动的动能及其局限性</h2>
</div><p>Meta's recent numbers are strong. In the second quarter of 2025, revenue rose 22% year over year to $47.5 billion, while income from operations increased 38% and operating margin expanded to 43% as ad demand stayed healthy. Management also noted in the company's follow-up second-quarter earnings call that demand was broad-based across verticals and geographies, with smaller advertisers contributing to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 最近的业绩表现强劲。在 2025 年第二季度，收入同比增长 22% 达到 475 亿美元，运营收入增长 38%，运营利润率扩大至 43%，因为广告需求保持健康。管理层在公司随后的第二季度财报电话会议中还指出，需求在各个垂直领域和地理区域广泛存在，小型广告客户也为增长做出了贡献。</p>
</div><p>Why wouldn't a business growing like this command a price-to-earnings multiple in the thirties? The catch is concentration. Substantially all of Meta's revenue is generated from advertising, and those results fluctuate with marketers' budgets. Advertising tends to behave like a cyclical expense: when growth fears rise, many brands and direct-response advertisers trim spend quickly. That dynamic can compress both Meta's top line and operating leverage more suddenly than businesses with more recurring, contracted, or diversified revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么像这样的企业不会在市盈率上达到三十倍？关键在于集中度。Meta 的几乎所有收入都来自广告，这些结果随着市场营销预算的波动而波动。广告往往表现得像一种周期性支出：当增长恐惧上升时，许多品牌和直接响应广告客户会迅速削减支出。这种动态可能会比那些收入更具重复性、合同性或多样化的企业更突然地压缩 Meta 的收入和运营杠杆。</p>
</div><h2>Platform dependence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>平台依赖性</h2>
</div><p>Meta's second structural risk is distribution. Meta's products ride on mobile operating systems and app stores it does not control. In its annual filing, the company warns that changes by Apple or Alphabet can limit its ability to target and measure ads, degrade product functionality, or even make access to its apps more difficult -- and that Apple's iOS changes beginning in 2021 have negatively impacted ad performance and revenue. Apple's App Tracking Transparency framework formalized user opt-in for cross-app tracking, illustrating how a single platform policy can ripple through Meta's ad systems. These aren't theoretical worries; they're documented factors that have already affected results and could again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 的第二个结构性风险是分发。Meta 的产品依赖于其无法控制的移动操作系统和应用商店。在其年度报告中，该公司警告称，Apple 或 Alphabet 的变化可能会限制其定位和测量广告的能力，降低产品功能，甚至使访问其应用程序变得更加困难——并且 Apple 自 2021 年以来的 iOS 变更对广告表现和收入产生了负面影响。Apple 的应用追踪透明度框架正式化了用户对跨应用追踪的选择，说明了单一平台政策如何在 Meta 的广告系统中产生连锁反应。这些并不是理论上的担忧；它们是已经影响结果并可能再次影响的已记录因素。</p>
</div><h2>A battle for younger generations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对年轻一代的争夺战</h2>
</div><p>Competition for attention also remains real. TikTok's rapid ascent showed that new social platforms can win share fast, and <strong>Snap</strong>'s Snapchat remains deeply popular among U.S. teens alongside Instagram. Meta has responded well with Reels and recommendation improvements -- and the recent quarter reflected that -- but the battle for time and attention is more competitive than ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对注意力的竞争依然真实。TikTok 的快速崛起表明新的社交平台可以迅速赢得市场份额，而 <strong>Snap</strong> 的 Snapchat 在美国青少年中仍然非常受欢迎，与 Instagram 并驾齐驱。Meta 通过 Reels 和推荐改进做出了良好的回应——最近的季度反映了这一点——但争夺时间和注意力的竞争比以往任何时候都更加激烈。</p>
</div><p>While Snap may not initially seem like a threat to Meta, it's worth noting that the company's daily active users are growing rapidly. In Q2, Snap's daily active users rose 9% year over year. In addition, the company's monthly active user count is approaching 1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Snap 可能最初看起来对 Meta 不是威胁，但值得注意的是，该公司的日活跃用户正在快速增长。在第二季度，Snap 的日活跃用户同比增长 9%。此外，该公司的月活跃用户数量接近 10 亿。</p>
</div><h2>What this means for valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对估值意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>A business that is (1) tied to discretionary ad budgets, (2) dependent on external platforms for distribution and some of its key data signals, and (3) facing credible attention from rivals deserves a lower valuation than platform owners or companies with more diversified, contracted, or utility-like cash flows. Today, Meta's price-to-earnings multiple sits roughly in the high-20s on a forward basis, below <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong> (both in the low-to-mid 30s recently) and slightly above Alphabet, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 27. That spread mostly makes sense. Microsoft and Amazon lean more on subscription, enterprise, and cloud spending, while Alphabet has an advertising-heavy business. With this said, I believe Alphabet arguably deserves to trade at a higher multiple than Meta. Though its business relies a lot on ads, it benefits from a broader mix, including a fast-growing cloud segment and control of the Android platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个 (1) 依赖于可自由支配的广告预算，(2) 依赖外部平台进行分发和一些关键数据信号，(3) 面临来自竞争对手的可信关注的企业，其估值应低于平台所有者或拥有更多多样化、合同性或公用事业型现金流的公司。目前，Meta 的市盈率大约在 20 多倍的高位，低于 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（最近均在低至中 30 倍之间），略高于 Alphabet，后者的市盈率约为 27 倍。这种差距大致是合理的。Microsoft 和 Amazon 更依赖于订阅、企业和云支出，而 Alphabet 则有一个以广告为主的业务。尽管如此，我认为 Alphabet 理应比 Meta 交易更高的倍数。尽管其业务在很大程度上依赖于广告，但它受益于更广泛的组合，包括快速增长的云业务和对 Android 平台的控制。</p>
</div><p>Yes, Meta stock may continue to compound if engagement holds and ad tools keep improving. Additionally, Meta seems to try to always be prepared for risks by maintaining a healthy balance sheet -- something that may help it during times of economic weakness. But the nature of its revenue and its relationship with gatekeepers mean there's always a chance that macro softness, a new privacy rule, or a policy change dents performance faster than expected. Advertising cyclicality, platform exposure, and intense competition for attention, therefore, argue that a sustained price-to-earnings multiple in the 20s is a prudent place for the market to settle, even as results remain strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，如果用户参与度保持不变且广告工具不断改善，Meta 股票可能会继续复合增长。此外，Meta 似乎始终为风险做好准备，保持健康的资产负债表——这可能在经济疲软时期帮助它。但其收入的性质及其与守门人的关系意味着，总有可能出现宏观疲软、新的隐私规则或政策变化比预期更快地影响业绩。因此，广告的周期性、平台的暴露以及对注意力的激烈竞争，表明市场在市盈率维持在 20 多倍的水平是明智的，即使业绩依然强劲。</p>
</div>

Here's Why Meta Platforms Should Trade at a Lower Multiple Than the Rest of the "Magnificent Seven"

- Meta Platforms 在 2025 年第二季度收入同比增长 22% 至 475 亿美元。  
- 其广告收入依赖于市场预算，面临周期性波动风险。  
- 竞争加剧及平台依赖性使其估值低于其他科技巨头。  

以下是为什么 Meta Platforms 应该以比 “七大巨头” 其他公司更低的市盈率进行交易的原因