<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.52%) 是全球最有价值的公司，估值达到 4.1 万亿美元。近年来，其表现令人瞩目，英伟达在最近几个季度仍然实现了超过 50% 的收入增长——这在科技巨头中被视为放缓。</p>
<p>但当一只股票的估值达到如此显著的水平时，这也意味着预期很高。如果公司未能达到这些预期，股票可能会面临严重的调整风险，尤其是那些已经获得丰厚收益的投资者可能会寻找任何迹象，表明股票可能接近峰值，因为这可能是兑现收益、锁定尽可能大收益的机会。</p>
<p>英伟达股票的问题在于，如果科技行业出现任何显著的逆风或放缓，它可能是首批遭受大幅下跌的公司之一。这是因为其收入并没有那么多样化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMjQvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1oZWFkYWNoZS10cmFja2luZy1jaGFydHMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMjQvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1oZWFkYWNoZS10cmFja2luZy1jaGFydHMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达绝大多数收入来自仅六个客户</h2>
<p>英伟达的收入来源于多个领域，包括汽车、游戏、专业可视化和数据中心。但目前其主要收入来源是数据中心业务，该业务在其最近一个季度（截至 7 月 27 日）中占据了 467 亿美元收入的 88%。</p>
<p>然而，最令人担忧的是该领域的客户集中风险。英伟达的 AI 芯片并不便宜，主要是大型科技公司能够承担显著的支出。公司会披露当客户占据收入的较大份额时的情况，英伟达表示，其两个最大客户，称为客户 A 和客户 B，分别占据了上个季度 23% 和 16% 的收入。</p>
<p>但这还不是全部。它还指出，有四个直接客户各自占其季度销售的 10% 或更多。总的来说，约 85% 的收入来自仅仅 <em>六个客户</em>。虽然没有提到具体名称，但我猜测其主要客户是大型超大规模云服务商，其中大多数可能属于 “七大巨头”。</p>
<p>问题很明显：如果 AI 相关支出放缓，英伟达的增长率可能会迅速崩溃，因为它仅依赖于六个客户。</p>
<h2>英伟达的估值已经下降，但仍然很高</h2>
<p>目前，英伟达的股票交易价格与收益比超过 50。尽管这一溢价在过去一年中有所下降，并且低于其五年平均水平，但对于这只 AI 股票来说，这仍然是一个高价。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>英伟达的销售和利润在上个季度均增长超过 50%，但这并不足以给股票带来太大提振。在过去一个月中，股票的价值下降了近 6%（截至 9 月 17 日）。考虑到与整体经济相关的风险、其脆弱性以及未来 AI 支出放缓的潜在可能性，投资者可能会对将股票的价格定得比现在更高感到抵触。</p>
<h2>英伟达股票仍然是一个好买入吗？</h2>
<p>在短短五年内，英伟达为投资者创造了近 1300% 的改变人生的回报。但现在其市值约为 4.3 万亿美元，不可避免地出现了它还能涨多高的问题。它不再追赶其他股票——它已经成为全球最有价值的公司。</p>
<p>我认为英伟达的业务非常出色，利润率令人印象深刻，未来由于 AI 可能还有更大的增长空间。如果你打算至少持有这只股票五年，那么英伟达仍然是一个不错的投资，但我建议你要做好至少在不久的将来出现适度回调的准备。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的市值为 4.1 万亿美元，由于客户集中度高，面临重大风险，85% 的收入来自仅六个客户。公司的数据中心业务是其主要收入来源，容易受到人工智能支出潜在放缓的影响。尽管增长令人印象深刻，英伟达的股票市盈率超过 50，近期已下跌近 6%。虽然为投资者带来了可观的回报，但建议保持谨慎，因为该股票在不久的将来可能会经历适度回调</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.52%) is the most valuable company in the world, with a valuation of $4.1 trillion. Its performance in recent years has been remarkable, with Nvidia still generating over 50% revenue growth in recent quarters -- and that's considered a slowdown for the tech giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.52%) 是全球最有价值的公司，估值达到 4.1 万亿美元。近年来，其表现令人瞩目，英伟达在最近几个季度仍然实现了超过 50% 的收入增长——这在科技巨头中被视为放缓。</p>
</div><p>But when a stock's valuation reaches such significant proportions, that also means expectations are high. If the company falls short of them, the stock could be vulnerable to a serious correction, especially as investors who are up big may be looking for any signs that it may be approaching a peak, as that could be an opportunity to cash out and lock in as large of a gain as possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但当一只股票的估值达到如此显著的水平时，这也意味着预期很高。如果公司未能达到这些预期，股票可能会面临严重的调整风险，尤其是那些已经获得丰厚收益的投资者可能会寻找任何迹象，表明股票可能接近峰值，因为这可能是兑现收益、锁定尽可能大收益的机会。</p>
</div><p>The problem with Nvidia's stock is that if there are any notable headwinds or slowdowns in the tech sector, then it could be among the first to endure a big drop in value. And that's because its revenue isn't all that diversified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达股票的问题在于，如果科技行业出现任何显著的逆风或放缓，它可能是首批遭受大幅下跌的公司之一。这是因为其收入并没有那么多样化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMzMjQvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1oZWFkYWNoZS10cmFja2luZy1jaGFydHMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833324%2Fperson-with-a-headache-tracking-charts.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The vast majority of Nvidia's revenue comes from just six customers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达绝大多数收入来自仅六个客户</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has multiple segments that it generates revenue from, including automotive, gaming, professional visualization, and data centers. But its main income source right now is its data center business, which accounted for 88% of the $46.7 billion in revenue it posted in its most recent period, which ended on July 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的收入来源于多个领域，包括汽车、游戏、专业可视化和数据中心。但目前其主要收入来源是数据中心业务，该业务在其最近一个季度（截至 7 月 27 日）中占据了 467 亿美元收入的 88%。</p>
</div><p>What's most concerning, however, is the customer concentration risk in that segment. Nvidia's AI chips aren't cheap, and it's primarily the big tech companies that can afford to spend significantly on them. Companies disclose when customers account for a big slice of revenue, and Nvidia says that its two largest customers, which it refers to as just Customer A and Customer B, represented 23% and 16% of revenue for the past quarter, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最令人担忧的是该领域的客户集中风险。英伟达的 AI 芯片并不便宜，主要是大型科技公司能够承担显著的支出。公司会披露当客户占据收入的较大份额时的情况，英伟达表示，其两个最大客户，称为客户 A 和客户 B，分别占据了上个季度 23% 和 16% 的收入。</p>
</div><p>But that's not all. It also noted that there were four direct customers that each made up 10% or more of its quarterly sales. In total, approximately 85% of its revenue was attributable to just <em>six customers</em>. While specific names weren't mentioned, my guess is that its key customers are big hyperscalers, with the majority of them potentially among the &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这还不是全部。它还指出，有四个直接客户各自占其季度销售的 10% 或更多。总的来说，约 85% 的收入来自仅仅 <em>六个客户</em>。虽然没有提到具体名称，但我猜测其主要客户是大型超大规模云服务商，其中大多数可能属于 “七大巨头”。</p>
</div><p>The problem is clear: if there's a slowdown in AI-related spending, Nvidia's growth rate could quickly unravel given its exposure to just six customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题很明显：如果 AI 相关支出放缓，英伟达的增长率可能会迅速崩溃，因为它仅依赖于六个客户。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation has come down, but it remains high</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的估值已经下降，但仍然很高</h2>
</div><p>Currently, Nvidia's stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of more than 50. Although that premium has come down over the past year and it's below its five-year average, that's still a high price to be paying for the AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英伟达的股票交易价格与收益比超过 50。尽管这一溢价在过去一年中有所下降，并且低于其五年平均水平，但对于这只 AI 股票来说，这仍然是一个高价。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ac927639b1afc5a09a491a9b1db6998.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Both Nvidia's sales and profits were up over 50% last quarter, but that hasn't been enough to give the stock much of a boost. Over the past month, the stock has declined in value by nearly 6% (as of Sept. 17). There could be some resistance from investors to price the stock much higher than where it is right now, given the risks related to the overall economy, its fragility, and the potential for a slowdown in AI spending in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的销售和利润在上个季度均增长超过 50%，但这并不足以给股票带来太大提振。在过去一个月中，股票的价值下降了近 6%（截至 9 月 17 日）。考虑到与整体经济相关的风险、其脆弱性以及未来 AI 支出放缓的潜在可能性，投资者可能会对将股票的价格定得比现在更高感到抵触。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock still a good buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达股票仍然是一个好买入吗？</h2>
</div><p>In just five years, Nvidia has generated life-changing returns of nearly 1,300% for investors. But now with its market cap up around $4.3 trillion, the inevitable questions come up of how much higher it can possibly go. It's no longer chasing any other stock -- it has already become the most valuable company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短短五年内，英伟达为投资者创造了近 1300% 的改变人生的回报。但现在其市值约为 4.3 万亿美元，不可避免地出现了它还能涨多高的问题。它不再追赶其他股票——它已经成为全球最有价值的公司。</p>
</div><p>I think Nvidia has a fantastic business, and it commands impressive margins, and there's potentially much more growth out there in the long run due to AI. If you're looking at holding onto the stock for at least the next five years, then Nvidia can still be a good investment, but I would suggest bracing for the possibility of at least a modest pullback in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为英伟达的业务非常出色，利润率令人印象深刻，未来由于 AI 可能还有更大的增长空间。如果你打算至少持有这只股票五年，那么英伟达仍然是一个不错的投资，但我建议你要做好至少在不久的将来出现适度回调的准备。</p>
</div>

This Is Far and Away Nvidia's Biggest Risk

- Nvidia 的市值达到 4.1 万亿美元，近期收入增长超过 50%。  
- 其主要收入来源于数据中心业务，客户集中度高，六大客户贡献 85% 收入。  
- 尽管过去五年回报近 1300%，但未来增长面临 AI 支出放缓风险。  

这无疑是英伟达面临的最大风险