<p>市场早已预期美联储将降息四分之一个百分点，但接下来的问题仍然是它的下一步行动是什么以及何时进行。或者说，债券市场假设它的下一步行动将是什么？对利率鸽派来说，好消息是，市场至少在最初是定价未来将降低利率，这对像 <strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR -2.07%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 1.70%) 这样的利率敏感股票来说是个好消息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTcwMzcxODAyNy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTcwMzcxODAyNy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>最新动态对投资者的意义</h2>
<p>美联储的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 以 11 票赞成、1 票反对通过了降息提案，其中一名反对者投票支持更激进的 0.5 个百分点降息。降息伴随着债券市场基准 10 年期国债收益率的下降和 30 年期抵押贷款利率的降低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>此外，债券市场正在定价更多的短期降息。这可以通过检查 10 年期、2 年期、1 年期和 6 个月期国债利率来推断。在正常情况下，10 年期利率应该是最高的，而 6 个月期利率应该是最低的；这反映了由于可能的利率上升而与长期债券相关的更大风险。</p>
<p>确实，10 年期收益率是最高的；然而，请注意，6 个月期利率高于 1 年期和 2 年期利率。这意味着市场预计利率将在一到两年内下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>对惠而浦的影响</h2>
<p>较低的抵押贷款利率往往有助于提高借款人的住房可负担性，这可能导致更多的房屋销售和新房建设。更多的住房和销售对像惠而浦这样的家电制造商来说是个利好。个人在出售房屋之前和购买新房之后通常会进行房屋翻新。因此，家电的高利润可支配需求往往跟随现有房屋销售。</p>
<p>惠而浦今年因可支配需求疲软而苦苦挣扎，而改善的美国住房市场无疑将有助于提升销售。此外，亚洲竞争对手在关税实施前已提前进入市场，从而创造了一个高度竞争的价格环境。较低的利率可能会刺激需求，并帮助清理市场上过剩的家电库存。</p>
<p>在当前的关税环境下，惠而浦的竞争力（该公司在美国销售的约 80% 是在美国生产的）未来可能会显著改善，并且它将成为特朗普政府关税政策的主要受益者。</p>
<h2>特斯拉也可能成为赢家</h2>
<p>住房对利率敏感，汽车贷款购买同样如此。特斯拉销售下滑的关注点大多集中在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的政治参与和/或该汽车制造商的老旧车型阵容上。现实是，尽管特斯拉的 Model Y 在 2025 年的销售下滑，但其 Model 3 的销售却在强劲增长，而 Model 3 恰好是特斯拉价格最低的车型，这并非巧合。</p>
<p>特斯拉在 SUV（Model Y）市场失去市场份额也并非巧合，因为像预算型的雪佛兰 Equinox SUV 等可负担竞争对手的销售迅速增长。相比之下，特斯拉在 2025 年决定对 Model Y 进行更新，并推出了更昂贵的车型。</p>
<p>尽管如此，特斯拉已经在制定应对计划，并计划在不久的将来推出一款低成本车型。联邦电动车税收抵免将在九月底到期，这将对市场造成影响。不过，较低的利率将抵消这一影响，并推动特斯拉推出低成本车型，包括一款低成本的 Y 车型，以及可能在 2026 年推出的新款经济型汽车（Model 2？）。</p>
<p>此外，通过降低利率使电动车更具可负担性将刺激销售，因为电动车的初始成本往往相对较高，但其运行成本相对较低。因此，较低的利率环境可能会在 2026 年推动特斯拉的电动车销售，因为它继续开发其机器人出租车的推广。</p>

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>美联储已将利率下调了四分之一个百分点，预计未来还会进一步降息。这对像惠而浦和特斯拉这样的利率敏感型股票是个利好。较低的抵押贷款利率可能会促进住房销售，从而惠及面临需求疲软的惠而浦。特斯拉也可能受益于较低的利率，这可能提高电动车的可负担性，从而增加其低价车型的销量。债券市场显示出降息的趋势，这可能在不久的将来支持这两家公司</p>

<p>The market has long anticipated the Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut, but as ever, the next question is what and when its next move will be. Or rather, what is the bond market assuming its next move will be? The good news for interest rate doves is that the market, initially at least, is pricing in lower interest rates on the way, which would be great news for interest-rate-sensitive stocks like <strong>Whirlpool</strong>(WHR -2.07%) and <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.70%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场早已预期美联储将降息四分之一个百分点，但接下来的问题仍然是它的下一步行动是什么以及何时进行。或者说，债券市场假设它的下一步行动将是什么？对利率鸽派来说，好消息是，市场至少在最初是定价未来将降低利率，这对像 <strong>惠而浦</strong>(WHR -2.07%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 1.70%) 这样的利率敏感股票来说是个好消息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTcwMzcxODAyNy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833996%2Fgettyimages-1703718027-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What the latest moves mean for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最新动态对投资者的意义</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one dissenting member voting for a more aggressive 0.5-percentage-point cut. The rate cut was accompanied by a decline in bond market benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and a decrease in 30-year mortgage rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 以 11 票赞成、1 票反对通过了降息提案，其中一名反对者投票支持更激进的 0.5 个百分点降息。降息伴随着债券市场基准 10 年期国债收益率的下降和 30 年期抵押贷款利率的降低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/481b3b1d1d8bc52f8ea1cc5f7a0ce09f.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the bond markets are pricing in more near-term rate cuts. This is implied by examining the 10-year, two-year, one-year, and six-month Treasury rates. In normal circumstances, the 10-year rate should be the highest, and the six-month rate the lowest; this reflects the greater risk associated with longer-dated bonds due to a possible increase in interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，债券市场正在定价更多的短期降息。这可以通过检查 10 年期、2 年期、1 年期和 6 个月期国债利率来推断。在正常情况下，10 年期利率应该是最高的，而 6 个月期利率应该是最低的；这反映了由于可能的利率上升而与长期债券相关的更大风险。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, the 10-year yield is the highest; however, note that the six-month rate is higher than both the one-year and two-year rates. This implies that the market expects rates to go lower within one to two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，10 年期收益率是最高的；然而，请注意，6 个月期利率高于 1 年期和 2 年期利率。这意味着市场预计利率将在一到两年内下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/347e361b62a8763fc123d1bddc41afb5.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for Whirlpool</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对惠而浦的影响</h2>
</div><p>Lower mortgage rates tend to help make housing more affordable for borrowers, which can lead to more home sales and new home construction. More housing and sales is a plus for domestic appliance makers like Whirlpool. Individuals often remodel their homes before selling and after buying a new one. As such, the higher-margin discretionary demand for household appliances tends to follow existing home sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较低的抵押贷款利率往往有助于提高借款人的住房可负担性，这可能导致更多的房屋销售和新房建设。更多的住房和销售对像惠而浦这样的家电制造商来说是个利好。个人在出售房屋之前和购买新房之后通常会进行房屋翻新。因此，家电的高利润可支配需求往往跟随现有房屋销售。</p>
</div><p>Whirlpool has struggled this year due to weak discretionary demand, and an improved U.S. housing market would definitely help boost sales. In addition, Asian competitors have preloaded the market ahead of tariff implementation, thereby creating a highly competitive price environment. Lower rates could boost demand and help clear the market's excess appliance inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦今年因可支配需求疲软而苦苦挣扎，而改善的美国住房市场无疑将有助于提升销售。此外，亚洲竞争对手在关税实施前已提前进入市场，从而创造了一个高度竞争的价格环境。较低的利率可能会刺激需求，并帮助清理市场上过剩的家电库存。</p>
</div><p>With the current tariff landscape in place, Whirlpool's competitiveness (the company makes roughly 80% of what it sells in the U.S. within the U.S.) is likely to improve significantly in the future, and it's set to be a big winner from the Trump administration tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前的关税环境下，惠而浦的竞争力（该公司在美国销售的约 80% 是在美国生产的）未来可能会显著改善，并且它将成为特朗普政府关税政策的主要受益者。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla could also be a winner</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉也可能成为赢家</h2>
</div><p>Housing is interest rate sensitive, and so is buying a car on credit. Much of the attention on Tesla's falling sales has been focused on CEO Elon Musk's political involvement and/or the automaker's aging vehicle lineup. The reality is that while Tesla's Model Y sales have slumped in 2025, sales of its Model 3 are growing strongly, and it's not a coincidence that the Model 3 is Tesla's lowest-priced vehicle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住房对利率敏感，汽车贷款购买同样如此。特斯拉销售下滑的关注点大多集中在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的政治参与和/或该汽车制造商的老旧车型阵容上。现实是，尽管特斯拉的 Model Y 在 2025 年的销售下滑，但其 Model 3 的销售却在强劲增长，而 Model 3 恰好是特斯拉价格最低的车型，这并非巧合。</p>
</div><p>It's also not a coincidence that Tesla is losing market share in the SUV (Model Y) market, as affordable competitors like the budget-priced Chevrolet Equinox SUV have aggressively grown their sales. In contrast, Tesla decided to refresh the Model Y in 2025, and in doing so, released a more expensive model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在 SUV（Model Y）市场失去市场份额也并非巧合，因为像预算型的雪佛兰 Equinox SUV 等可负担竞争对手的销售迅速增长。相比之下，特斯拉在 2025 年决定对 Model Y 进行更新，并推出了更昂贵的车型。</p>
</div><p>Still, Tesla is already making plans to react and is set to release a lower-cost model in the near future. The expiration of federal tax credits for EVs at the end of September will hurt the market. Still, lower interest rates would offset the impact and also boost Tesla's release of lower-cost models, including a lower-cost Y model, and possibly a new affordable car (Model 2?) in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，特斯拉已经在制定应对计划，并计划在不久的将来推出一款低成本车型。联邦电动车税收抵免将在九月底到期，这将对市场造成影响。不过，较低的利率将抵消这一影响，并推动特斯拉推出低成本车型，包括一款低成本的 Y 车型，以及可能在 2026 年推出的新款经济型汽车（Model 2？）。</p>
</div><p>In addition, making EVs more affordable with lower interest rates would boost sales, as the initial cost of an EV tends to be relatively high, but its running costs are relatively low. As such, a lower interest rate environment could boost Tesla's EV sales in 2026 as it continues developing its robotaxi rollout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，通过降低利率使电动车更具可负担性将刺激销售，因为电动车的初始成本往往相对较高，但其运行成本相对较低。因此，较低的利率环境可能会在 2026 年推动特斯拉的电动车销售，因为它继续开发其机器人出租车的推广。</p>
</div>

Jerome Powell Just Cut Rates. Here Are Stocks That Could Soar.

- 美联储以 11-1 投票通过降息，市场预期未来将有更多降息。  
- 降低的抵押贷款利率将促进住房销售，利好家电制造商如惠而浦。  
- 特斯拉在降息环境中也可能受益，计划推出更低价车型以应对市场竞争。  

杰罗姆·鲍威尔刚刚宣布降息。以下是可能上涨的股票