<p>8 月 14 日，监管文件显示沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）在美国房屋建筑商莱纳（Lennar）中累计持有约 8 亿美元的股份。这些文件存在滞后，显示伯克希尔截至 6 月 30 日的持仓情况。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，自那时以来，伯克希尔对这只建筑股的表现感到满意。从 6 月 30 日到 9 月 18 日，莱纳的 <strong>总回报约为 21%</strong>。这段时间内，房屋建筑股强劲反弹，SPDR S&amp;P 房屋建筑商 ETF（XHB）上涨超过 16%。</p>
<p>对利率下降的预期提振了房屋建筑股。</p>
<p>然而，9 月 18 日也是莱纳自伯克希尔披露其持仓以来的首次重大考验。该公司在市场收盘后公布了 2025 年第三季度的财报，提供了住房市场健康状况的最新指标。让我们来分析一下结果，并获得对该股票的最新看法。</p>
<h2>莱纳因售价下滑几乎削减 50% 的利润</h2>
<p>在第三季度，莱纳报告收入为 88 亿美元，下降约 6.5%。这略微低于预期的 90 亿美元，或仅下降 4.4%。在剔除其科技投资的公允价值变动后，莱纳的调整后每股收益（EPS）为 2.00 美元。这比去年大幅下降 49%。此外，该数字也低于华尔街预期的 2.14 美元，下降幅度为 45%。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，尽管莱纳交付了 21,584 套房屋，略高于 2024 年第三季度的交付量，但销售和每股收益的大幅下降仍然发生。这部分是因为该公司提供了显著的折扣，将其平均房屋售价降低了超过 9%，降至 383,000 美元。</p>
<p>这对莱纳的毛利率造成了显著影响，毛利率下降了 500 个基点，降至 17.5%。显然，<strong>疲软的住房需求</strong> 对莱纳的收入和利润造成了重大压力。不过，利率下降是公司面临的一个利好因素。</p>
<h2>利率下降，但莱纳预计第四季度稳定</h2>
<p>随着美联储将利率下调 25 个基点，像莱纳这样的房屋建筑商得到了他们想要的。这些降息提高了公司以可负担的方式融资新建筑项目的能力，并最终随着抵押贷款利率的下降而推动销售。</p>
<p>不过，抵押贷款利率与联邦基金利率之间的关系并不完美。然而，抵押贷款利率已经开始因预期美联储降息而下跌。</p>
<p>截至 9 月 18 日，30 年期固定抵押贷款利率在一周内下降了 9 个基点，降至 6.26%。总体而言，自 6 月底以来，30 年期利率已下降约 50 个基点。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，美国房地产经纪人协会的劳伦斯·云（Lawrence Yun）称 6% 是 “魔法” 抵押贷款利率，可能会重新点燃房屋销售。他现在认为，30 年期利率可能在 2025 年底前降至该水平。</p>
<p>然而，莱纳并不期望其业务在第四季度有太大改善。它预计交付 22,000 至 23,000 套房屋，这比第三季度的实际交付量中值增加约 4%。它还预计毛利率为 17.5%，平均售价在 380,000 至 390,000 美元之间。</p>
<p>这表明该公司提供的高折扣将持续。总体而言，尽管利率下降，莱纳的前景缺乏改善，这可能是导致其股票在 9 月 18 日盘后交易中下跌超过 3% 的原因。</p>
<h2>利率仍然是莱纳上涨或下跌的关键</h2>
<p>进一步来看，市场将 10 月份再降 25 个基点的概率置于 92%。他们还预计 <strong>12 月份联邦基金利率下降 50 个基点的概率为 82%</strong>。这些降息对莱纳来说将是受欢迎的进展。</p>
<p>不过，这些预测可能会根据新数据发生显著变化，预测利率变动向来是困难的。然而，通常来说，市场和美联储的预测者都认为，未来几年联邦基金利率将大幅下降。</p>
<p>莱纳的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为 15 倍。这比过去三年平均前瞻市盈率约 10.3 倍高出近 50%。这表明市场对莱纳能够从利率下降中受益寄予了很大期望。</p>
<p>如果利率朝着正确的方向变化，且经济避免衰退，莱纳的收益可能会显著恢复。这可能使股票回到历史最高点，需上涨约 32%。然而，如果这种情况没有发生，股票可能会面临显著的卖压。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在莱纳吗？</h2>
<p>在你考虑莱纳之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而莱纳并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然莱纳目前在分析师中获得了持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

莱纳房产-A

莱纳房产-B

<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦对莱纳房产的投资面临挑战，因为该房屋建筑商报告了 2025 年第三季度调整后每股收益下降 49% 和收入下降 6.5%。尽管自 6 月以来总回报率达到 21%，莱纳房产的前景依然谨慎，预计交付量将保持稳定，并继续提供折扣。利率下降可能会带来一些缓解，但由于住房需求疲软，公司业绩承压。财报发布后，股价下跌超过 3%，反映出在不确定的经济环境下对未来增长的担忧</p>

<p>On Aug. 14, regulatory filings revealed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway NYSE: BRK.B had accumulated an approximately $800 million stake in U.S. homebuilder Lennar NYSE: LEN. These filings have a lag and show Berkshire’s position as of June 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>8 月 14 日，监管文件显示沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）在美国房屋建筑商莱纳（Lennar）中累计持有约 8 亿美元的股份。这些文件存在滞后，显示伯克希尔截至 6 月 30 日的持仓情况。</p>
</div><p>Surely, Berkshire is happy with the construction stock’s performance since then. From June 30 to Sept. 18, Lennar has <strong>provided a total return of approximately 21%</strong>. This comes as homebuilding stocks have recovered strongly, with the SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF NYSEARCA: XHB rising more than 16% over that period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，自那时以来，伯克希尔对这只建筑股的表现感到满意。从 6 月 30 日到 9 月 18 日，莱纳的 <strong>总回报约为 21%</strong>。这段时间内，房屋建筑股强劲反弹，SPDR S&amp;P 房屋建筑商 ETF（XHB）上涨超过 16%。</p>
</div><p>Expectations of lower interest rates have buoyed homebuilder stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对利率下降的预期提振了房屋建筑股。</p>
</div><p>However, Sept. 18 also marked Lennar’s first big test since Berkshire revealed its position. The company reported its Q3 2025 earnings after the market closed, providing the latest indicator of the housing market’s health. Let’s break down the results and gain an updated perspective on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，9 月 18 日也是莱纳自伯克希尔披露其持仓以来的首次重大考验。该公司在市场收盘后公布了 2025 年第三季度的财报，提供了住房市场健康状况的最新指标。让我们来分析一下结果，并获得对该股票的最新看法。</p>
</div><h2>Lennar Takes Nearly 50% Profit Cut as Selling Prices Sink</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>莱纳因售价下滑几乎削减 50% 的利润</h2>
</div><p>In Q3, Lennar reported revenue of $8.8 billion, a decline of approximately 6.5%. This moderately missed expectations of $9 billion, or only a 4.4% decline. After excluding the mark-to-market gains of its technology investments, Lennar’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.00. This was a massive 49% drop from the prior year. Additionally, the figure missed Wall Street estimates of $2.14, or a 45% drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第三季度，莱纳报告收入为 88 亿美元，下降约 6.5%。这略微低于预期的 90 亿美元，或仅下降 4.4%。在剔除其科技投资的公允价值变动后，莱纳的调整后每股收益（EPS）为 2.00 美元。这比去年大幅下降 49%。此外，该数字也低于华尔街预期的 2.14 美元，下降幅度为 45%。</p>
</div><p>Notably, these large drops in sales and EPS came even though Lennar delivered 21,584 homes, slightly more than it did in Q3 2024. This is partially because the company has been offering significant discounts, dropping its average home selling price by over 9% to $383,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，尽管莱纳交付了 21,584 套房屋，略高于 2024 年第三季度的交付量，但销售和每股收益的大幅下降仍然发生。这部分是因为该公司提供了显著的折扣，将其平均房屋售价降低了超过 9%，降至 383,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>This has put a significant damper on Lennar’s gross margin, which fell by 500 basis points to 17.5%. Clearly, <strong>soft housing demand</strong> is putting significant pressure on Lennar’s top and bottom lines. Still, falling interest rates are one tailwind the company has on its side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对莱纳的毛利率造成了显著影响，毛利率下降了 500 个基点，降至 17.5%。显然，<strong>疲软的住房需求</strong> 对莱纳的收入和利润造成了重大压力。不过，利率下降是公司面临的一个利好因素。</p>
</div><h2>Interest Rates Are Falling, But Lennar Projects Stable Q4</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率下降，但莱纳预计第四季度稳定</h2>
</div><p>With the Federal Reserve dropping interest rates by 25 basis points, homebuilders like Lennar got exactly what they wanted. These cuts increase the company’s ability to affordably finance new building projects and eventually boost sales as mortgage rates fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美联储将利率下调 25 个基点，像莱纳这样的房屋建筑商得到了他们想要的。这些降息提高了公司以可负担的方式融资新建筑项目的能力，并最终随着抵押贷款利率的下降而推动销售。</p>
</div><p>Still, mortgage rates are far from a perfect relationship with the Fed Funds Rate. However, they have already started to fall in anticipation of the Fed rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，抵押贷款利率与联邦基金利率之间的关系并不完美。然而，抵押贷款利率已经开始因预期美联储降息而下跌。</p>
</div><p>As of September 18, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell by 9 basis points to 6.26% in one week. Overall, the 30-year rate has been down by around 50 basis points since the end of June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 9 月 18 日，30 年期固定抵押贷款利率在一周内下降了 9 个基点，降至 6.26%。总体而言，自 6 月底以来，30 年期利率已下降约 50 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Lawrence Yun at the National Association of Realtors has called 6% the “magic” mortgage rate that could reignite home sales. He now believes the 30-year could fall to that rate by the end of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，美国房地产经纪人协会的劳伦斯·云（Lawrence Yun）称 6% 是 “魔法” 抵押贷款利率，可能会重新点燃房屋销售。他现在认为，30 年期利率可能在 2025 年底前降至该水平。</p>
</div><p>However, Lennar doesn’t expect its business to improve much in the fourth quarter. It expects to deliver between 22,000 and 23,000 homes, which is around a 4% increase at the midpoint compared to actual deliveries in Q3. It also sees gross margin at 17.5% and average selling prices between $380,000 and $390,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，莱纳并不期望其业务在第四季度有太大改善。它预计交付 22,000 至 23,000 套房屋，这比第三季度的实际交付量中值增加约 4%。它还预计毛利率为 17.5%，平均售价在 380,000 至 390,000 美元之间。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that the steep discounts the firm is offering will continue. Overall, the lack of improvement in Lennar’s outlook despite falling rates is likely why shares fell by more than 3% in after-hours trading on Sept. 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明该公司提供的高折扣将持续。总体而言，尽管利率下降，莱纳的前景缺乏改善，这可能是导致其股票在 9 月 18 日盘后交易中下跌超过 3% 的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Interest Rates Remain Key to Lennar Surging or Suffering</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率仍然是莱纳上涨或下跌的关键</h2>
</div><p>Looking further, markets put the probability of another 25-point cut in October at 92%. They also see an <strong>82% probability of the Fed Funds Rate falling 50 basis points</strong> from current levels in December. Those cuts would be welcome developments for Lennar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步来看，市场将 10 月份再降 25 个基点的概率置于 92%。他们还预计 <strong>12 月份联邦基金利率下降 50 个基点的概率为 82%</strong>。这些降息对莱纳来说将是受欢迎的进展。</p>
</div><p>Still, these forecasts could shift significantly based on new data, and predicting interest rate movements is notoriously difficult. However, generally speaking, markets and Federal Reserve forecasters alike see the Fed Funds Rate moving down considerably over the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这些预测可能会根据新数据发生显著变化，预测利率变动向来是困难的。然而，通常来说，市场和美联储的预测者都认为，未来几年联邦基金利率将大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>Lennar trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 15x. That’s nearly 50% higher than its average forward P/E over the past three years of around 10.3x. This suggests that markets are putting a lot of weight on Lennar’s ability to benefit from lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莱纳的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为 15 倍。这比过去三年平均前瞻市盈率约 10.3 倍高出近 50%。这表明市场对莱纳能够从利率下降中受益寄予了很大期望。</p>
</div><p>Lennar's earnings could recover significantly if interest rates move in the right direction and the economy avoids recession. This could allow shares to return to all-time highs, requiring around a 32% gain. However, if this doesn’t happen, there could be significant selling pressure on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利率朝着正确的方向变化，且经济避免衰退，莱纳的收益可能会显著恢复。这可能使股票回到历史最高点，需上涨约 32%。然而，如果这种情况没有发生，股票可能会面临显著的卖压。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Lennar Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在莱纳吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Lennar, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你考虑莱纳之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Lennar wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而莱纳并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Lennar currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然莱纳目前在分析师中获得了持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

伯克希尔支持的莱纳在第三季度业绩疲软后股价下跌