<p>电动车（EV）制造商和机器人出租车公司 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.27%）自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普当选以来经历了剧烈波动。该股最初大幅上涨，但随后因电动车业务表现不佳和关税影响而遭遇强烈抛售。</p>
<p>但自四月低点以来，该股反弹近 90%，并接近 2024 年底创下的历史高点。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克似乎对目前的情况感到满意，刚刚自己购买了价值 10 亿美元的特斯拉股票。现在是投资者全力投入的时机吗？</p>
<h2>克服今年早些时候的障碍</h2>
<p>在特朗普去年 11 月当选后，特斯拉的股票飙升。似乎没有任何具体原因，除了马斯克与特朗普的关系以及对特斯拉监管环境放松的预期。但随着马斯克与政府效率部（DOGE）的合作引发争议，他与特朗普的关系恶化，“特朗普效应” 似乎减弱，尤其是特斯拉的核心电动车业务也面临困境。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM4MDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTYuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM4MDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTYuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>特斯拉在今年第一季度报告了令人失望的 337,000 辆交付，创下两年多以来的最低数字，第二季度的 384,000 辆交付同比仍下降 14%。在某些市场，竞争似乎已经追赶上特斯拉。关税和即将取消的 7500 美元美国联邦电动车税收抵免也给业务带来了挑战。</p>
<p>然而，投资者很快就忽视了特斯拉核心业务的糟糕业绩。相反，他们选择关注公司蓬勃发展的机器人出租车业务和未来的人形机器人。特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山进行了机器人出租车车队的软启动，并希望很快在凤凰城推出。目前尚不清楚这些项目的进展如何。媒体报道表明，特斯拉的大部分（如果不是全部）机器人出租车都设有地理围栏，并在行程中有远程人类监控或实际的安全监控人员在车内。</p>
<p>但投资者对这一进展感到兴奋。他们还相信，特斯拉能够比竞争对手如 Waymo 更便宜地建立其机器人出租车车队。马斯克还表示，他认为特斯拉到 2026 年底可能会有超过一百万辆机器人出租车上路。然而，他之前也曾做出过类似的大胆预测，但未能按时实现。</p>
<p>此外，马斯克最近购买了价值 10 亿美元的股票——这发生在特斯拉董事会刚刚提议在未来十年内向马斯克支付近 1 万亿美元的薪酬方案之后——这向华尔街分析师清晰地表明公司正在朝着正确的方向发展。</p>
<p>“我们变得更加看涨，” 威廉·布莱尔分析师杰德·多尔希默在最近的研究报告中写道。“这是马斯克自 2020 年以来首次购买。对我们来说，这向特斯拉未来业务最重要的部分——机器人出租车——发出了强烈的信心信号。”</p>
<p><strong>巴克莱</strong> 分析师丹·莱维在最近的一份报告中表示，他预计特斯拉第三季度的交付量将达到约 465,000 辆，超过市场普遍预期的 430,000 辆，并与去年持平。</p>
<h2>投资者应该全力投入吗？</h2>
<p>如果特斯拉能够报告出与去年持平的交付量，这将向市场发出一个良好的信号，表明公司正在解决上半年存在的问题。第一季度的交付量同比下降近 50%。</p>
<p>然而，由于美国电动车税收抵免将在 9 月 30 日到期，电动车制造商可能会因人们试图在优惠消失前利用这些节省而看到销售增长。因此，第三季度的收益可能是一次性的。</p>
<p>无论如何，我仍然认为特斯拉的股票对我来说过于昂贵，目前的前瞻市盈率约为 247。在我看来，投资者对机器人出租车和人形机器人过于乐观，导致风险回报比不太理想。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>埃隆·马斯克购买了价值 10 亿美元的特斯拉股票，自 4 月以来该股票已经上涨近 90%。尽管早期在交付和竞争方面面临挑战，但投资者对特斯拉的机器人出租车和类人机器人项目持乐观态度。分析师们变得更加看涨，预计第三季度的交付量将超过市场共识预期。然而，一些人认为，特斯拉的股票在 247 倍的前瞻性市盈率下被高估，这表明市场可能对未来的增长过于乐观</p>

<p>Electric vehicle (EV) maker and robotaxi company <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.27%) has been on a wild ride since U.S. President Donald Trump got elected. The stock initially rocketed higher, but then sold off intensely, as poor performance in the EV business and the effect of tariffs hit the company hard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动车（EV）制造商和机器人出租车公司 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.27%）自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普当选以来经历了剧烈波动。该股最初大幅上涨，但随后因电动车业务表现不佳和关税影响而遭遇强烈抛售。</p>
</div><p>But since April's lows, the stock has rebounded almost 90% and trades close to all-time highs made in late 2024. CEO Elon Musk seems to like what he's seeing and just purchased $1 billion of Tesla stock himself. Is now the time for investors to go all in?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自四月低点以来，该股反弹近 90%，并接近 2024 年底创下的历史高点。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克似乎对目前的情况感到满意，刚刚自己购买了价值 10 亿美元的特斯拉股票。现在是投资者全力投入的时机吗？</p>
</div><h2>Leaping hurdles from earlier this year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>克服今年早些时候的障碍</h2>
</div><p>Following Trump's election win last November, Tesla's stock surged. There didn't seem to be any specific reason, other than Musk's ties to Trump and expectations for an easier regulatory landscape for Tesla. But as Musk's work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) proved to be controversial and his relationship with Trump soured, the &#34;Trump bump&#34; seemed to fade, especially as Tesla's core EV business struggled as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普去年 11 月当选后，特斯拉的股票飙升。似乎没有任何具体原因，除了马斯克与特朗普的关系以及对特斯拉监管环境放松的预期。但随着马斯克与政府效率部（DOGE）的合作引发争议，他与特朗普的关系恶化，“特朗普效应” 似乎减弱，尤其是特斯拉的核心电动车业务也面临困境。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM4MDgvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTYuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833808%2Fperson-computer-6.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Tesla reported a disappointing 337,000 deliveries in the first quarter of the year, the lowest number in over two years, and second-quarter deliveries of 384,000 were still down 14% year over year. Competition seems to have caught up with Tesla in certain markets. Tariffs and the upcoming elimination of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit also presented challenges for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在今年第一季度报告了令人失望的 337,000 辆交付，创下两年多以来的最低数字，第二季度的 384,000 辆交付同比仍下降 14%。在某些市场，竞争似乎已经追赶上特斯拉。关税和即将取消的 7500 美元美国联邦电动车税收抵免也给业务带来了挑战。</p>
</div><p>However, it didn't take investors long to look past the poor results in Tesla's core business. Instead, they chose to focus on the company's burgeoning robotaxi business and future humanoid robots. Tesla has done a soft launch of its robotaxi fleet in Austin and San Francisco, and is hoping to soon launch in Phoenix. It's hard to tell how far along the programs are. Media reports have suggested that most, if not all, of Tesla's robotaxis are geofenced with either remote human monitoring or actual safety monitors in vehicles during trips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者很快就忽视了特斯拉核心业务的糟糕业绩。相反，他们选择关注公司蓬勃发展的机器人出租车业务和未来的人形机器人。特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山进行了机器人出租车车队的软启动，并希望很快在凤凰城推出。目前尚不清楚这些项目的进展如何。媒体报道表明，特斯拉的大部分（如果不是全部）机器人出租车都设有地理围栏，并在行程中有远程人类监控或实际的安全监控人员在车内。</p>
</div><p>But investors are excited by the progress. They also believe that Tesla will be able to build its robotaxi fleet more cheaply than rivals like Waymo. Musk also said that he thinks Tesla could have over a million robotaxis on the road by the end of 2026. However, he's made big calls like this before, only to miss the timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者对这一进展感到兴奋。他们还相信，特斯拉能够比竞争对手如 Waymo 更便宜地建立其机器人出租车车队。马斯克还表示，他认为特斯拉到 2026 年底可能会有超过一百万辆机器人出租车上路。然而，他之前也曾做出过类似的大胆预测，但未能按时实现。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Musk's recent purchase of $1 billion of stock -- which comes after Tesla's board of directors just proposed a nearly $1 trillion pay package to Musk over the next decade -- is a clear indicator to Wall Street analysts that the company is moving in the right direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，马斯克最近购买了价值 10 亿美元的股票——这发生在特斯拉董事会刚刚提议在未来十年内向马斯克支付近 1 万亿美元的薪酬方案之后——这向华尔街分析师清晰地表明公司正在朝着正确的方向发展。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We are becoming more bullish,&#34; William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer wrote in a recent research note. &#34;This purchase is Musk's first buy since 2020. To us, this sends a strong signal of confidence in the most important part of Tesla's future business, robotaxi.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们变得更加看涨，” 威廉·布莱尔分析师杰德·多尔希默在最近的研究报告中写道。“这是马斯克自 2020 年以来首次购买。对我们来说，这向特斯拉未来业务最重要的部分——机器人出租车——发出了强烈的信心信号。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Barclays</strong> analyst Dan Levy said in a recent note that he expects Tesla deliveries to come in at around 465,000 in the third quarter, above consensus estimates of 430,000 and flat year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>巴克莱</strong> 分析师丹·莱维在最近的一份报告中表示，他预计特斯拉第三季度的交付量将达到约 465,000 辆，超过市场普遍预期的 430,000 辆，并与去年持平。</p>
</div><h2>Should investors go all in?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该全力投入吗？</h2>
</div><p>If Tesla could report deliveries that were flat year over year, that would be a good indicator to the market that the company is shoring up problems it had in the first half of the year. Deliveries in Q1 were down nearly 50% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果特斯拉能够报告出与去年持平的交付量，这将向市场发出一个良好的信号，表明公司正在解决上半年存在的问题。第一季度的交付量同比下降近 50%。</p>
</div><p>However, with the U.S. EV tax credit expiring on Sept. 30, EV makers may see a boost in sales due to people trying to take advantage of the savings before they're gone. So Q3 earnings could be a one-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，由于美国电动车税收抵免将在 9 月 30 日到期，电动车制造商可能会因人们试图在优惠消失前利用这些节省而看到销售增长。因此，第三季度的收益可能是一次性的。</p>
</div><p>Either way, I still find Tesla's stock to be far too expensive for my taste while it's trading at a forward earnings multiple of roughly 247. In my opinion, investors are baking in too much good news from robotaxis and humanoid robots too fast, making the risk-reward proposition less favorable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，我仍然认为特斯拉的股票对我来说过于昂贵，目前的前瞻市盈率约为 247。在我看来，投资者对机器人出租车和人形机器人过于乐观，导致风险回报比不太理想。</p>
</div>

Elon Musk Just Bought $1 Billion of Tesla Stock, Which Is Up 90% Since Lows Made in April. Is Now the Time for Investors to Go All In?

- 特斯拉股价自特朗普当选以来经历剧烈波动，现接近历史高点。  
- CEO 马斯克购入 10 亿美元股票，显示对未来机器人出租车业务的信心。  
- 分析师预计第三季度交付量将达 465,000 辆，超出市场预期。

埃隆·马斯克刚刚购买了价值 10 亿美元的特斯拉股票，该股票自 4 月份的低点以来已经上涨了 90%。现在是投资者全面投入的好时机吗？