<p>我今年最好的投资之一无疑是 <strong>e.l.f. Beauty</strong>(ELF -4.49%)。一个重要原因是我在今年股价跌入 60 美元区间时买入了这只股票。</p>
<p>当时，投资者在公司发布疲弱的 2024 财年第四季度销售指引后感到恐慌。整个化妆品行业都感受到了一些压力，而对 TikTok 的不确定性（该公司在该平台上有着巨大的营销存在）也造成了一些阻力。</p>
<p>然而，放缓并没有影响到 e.l.f.在过去几年中在大众化妆品类别中获得的巨大市场份额。其产品和营销与年轻消费者产生了共鸣，同时在零售商那里获得了大量货架空间。</p>
<p>尽管关税的影响继续对股价施加压力，但公司通过同意以 10 亿美元收购高端美容新兴品牌 Rhode，成功改变了自己的命运。今年早些时候我买入的股票价格已经翻倍，但最好的可能还在后头。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3MzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3MzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Rhode 的救赎之路</h2>
<p>e.l.f.于 8 月完成的对 Rhode 的收购是公司的一次重大变革。该品牌在名人 Hailey Bieber 的支持下，自推出以来不到三年便实现了 2.12 亿美元的销售。虽然这本身就令人印象深刻，但更令人惊讶的是，这一切仅通过在其网站上销售少量产品且几乎没有付费营销实现。</p>
<p>虽然 e.l.f.在大众化妆品领域已经打响了名号，但 Rhode 为其提供了一个高端护肤和美容品牌，具有更高的价格点和更好的毛利率。重要的是，Bieber 将继续担任首席创意官和创新负责人，并保持品牌的代言人身份。</p>
<p>对 e.l.f.来说，这笔收购的美妙之处在于 Rhode 品牌的初创阶段。它仅销售约 10 种产品，因此有很大的机会扩展其产品线。此外，e.l.f.最大的优势之一是其影响者营销机制，这将直接与 Rhode 品牌结合。</p>
<p>然而，消费品的最大增长驱动力是分销的提升。如果你想找到一只具有巨大上行潜力的消费股，寻找那些进入更多商店并获得货架空间的股票。e.l.f.在过去几年中已经在其自有品牌上做到这一点，但现在它可以对 Rhode 做同样的事情。</p>
<p>即使在收购之前，Rhode 也计划在今年秋季进入 Sephora 商店，并在本月成功在美国和加拿大的所有 Sephora 商店及在线推出其产品。它将在今年秋季晚些时候进入英国的 Sephora 商店。Sephora 在全球拥有超过 3200 家门店，因此这对该品牌未来来说是一个巨大的机会。值得注意的是，Sephora 在推出时将携带 16 种 Rhode 产品，因此它已经开始扩展其产品线。</p>
<p>Sephora 可能只是个开始。<strong>Ulta Beauty</strong> 是 Rhode 品牌下一个合乎逻辑的零售合作伙伴，因为 e.l.f.已经与该公司建立了良好的关系，该公司销售高端和大众市场的化妆品及护肤产品。<strong>Target</strong> 也是未来的一个潜在选择，因为 e.l.f.在该零售商那里获得了大量货架空间，并且它仍然比其他大众市场零售商更具高端氛围。</p>
<h2>这只股票仍然值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>我坚信，投资者可以做出的最佳交易之一就是在分销提升之前购买消费股。无论产品是狗粮、能量饮料还是美容产品，增加的分销通常会导致超额的收入增长，市场也会给予回报。e.l.f.曾经使用过这一策略，现在它可以再次在 Rhode 上运用。</p>
<p>与此同时，考虑到未来的增长，这只股票的估值仍然相对吸引人。虽然它目前的前瞻市盈率为 42（基于分析师对 2026 财年的预估），但其市盈率与增长比（PEG）仅为 0.5。PEG 比率为正且低于 1 的股票通常被视为被低估。</p>
<p>在其分销机会和估值之间，这只成长股看起来有很大的上行空间。</p>

<p>E.l.f. Beauty 被预测为今年的热门投资，尤其是在由于销售指引疲软导致其股价下跌之后。该公司收购高端美容品牌 Rhode 被视为一个改变游戏规则的举措，提供高档产品和更好的利润率。随着 Rhode 进入 Sephora 以及潜在扩展到其他零售商，e.l.f. 处于显著增长的有利位置。该股票的估值吸引人，PEG 比率较低，表明它仍然是一个强劲的买入选择，因为预计分销增长将推动收入增长</p>

<p>One of my best investments this year will undoubtedly be <strong>e.l.f. Beauty</strong>(ELF -4.49%). A big reason for this is that I was buying the stock this year on its dip into the $60s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我今年最好的投资之一无疑是 <strong>e.l.f. Beauty</strong>(ELF -4.49%)。一个重要原因是我在今年股价跌入 60 美元区间时买入了这只股票。</p>
</div><p>At the time, investors were panicking after the company issued weak fiscal Q4 sales guidance. The cosmetics industry as a whole was feeling some pressure, while uncertainty over TikTok, where the company has a huge marketing presence, caused some headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当时，投资者在公司发布疲弱的 2024 财年第四季度销售指引后感到恐慌。整个化妆品行业都感受到了一些压力，而对 TikTok 的不确定性（该公司在该平台上有着巨大的营销存在）也造成了一些阻力。</p>
</div><p>However, the slowdown didn't take away from the fact that e.l.f. has taken massive market share in the mass cosmetics category over the past several years. Its products and marketing have resonated with younger consumers, while it's gained massive shelf space at retailers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，放缓并没有影响到 e.l.f.在过去几年中在大众化妆品类别中获得的巨大市场份额。其产品和营销与年轻消费者产生了共鸣，同时在零售商那里获得了大量货架空间。</p>
</div><p>While the impact of tariffs continued to weigh on the stock, the company was able to proactively change its fortunes when it agreed to acquire high-end beauty upstart Rhode in a $1 billion deal. The stock has more than doubled from my buys earlier this year, but the best may yet to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管关税的影响继续对股价施加压力，但公司通过同意以 10 亿美元收购高端美容新兴品牌 Rhode，成功改变了自己的命运。今年早些时候我买入的股票价格已经翻倍，但最好的可能还在后头。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3MzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTc1Mzg4MTEyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831739%2Fgettyimages-175388112.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The Rhode to redemption</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rhode 的救赎之路</h2>
</div><p>E.l.f.'s acquisition of Rhode, which closed in August, is a huge game changer for the company. Backed by celebrity Hailey Bieber, the brand was able to generate sales of $212 million in less than three years since its launch. While that is impressive on its own, what's even more impressive is that was done by only selling a handful of products on its website with little paid marketing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>e.l.f.于 8 月完成的对 Rhode 的收购是公司的一次重大变革。该品牌在名人 Hailey Bieber 的支持下，自推出以来不到三年便实现了 2.12 亿美元的销售。虽然这本身就令人印象深刻，但更令人惊讶的是，这一切仅通过在其网站上销售少量产品且几乎没有付费营销实现。</p>
</div><p>While e.l.f. has made its mark in the mass cosmetics space, Rhode gives it an upscale skincare and beauty brand with higher price points and better gross margins. Importantly, Bieber will stay on as chief creative officer and head of innovation and remain the face of the brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 e.l.f.在大众化妆品领域已经打响了名号，但 Rhode 为其提供了一个高端护肤和美容品牌，具有更高的价格点和更好的毛利率。重要的是，Bieber 将继续担任首席创意官和创新负责人，并保持品牌的代言人身份。</p>
</div><p>The beauty of the acquisition for e.l.f. is how nascent the Rhode brand is. It only sold about 10 products, so there is a big opportunity to expand its product line. In addition, one of e.l.f.'s biggest strengths has been its influencer marketing machine, which it will plug the Rhode brand right into.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 e.l.f.来说，这笔收购的美妙之处在于 Rhode 品牌的初创阶段。它仅销售约 10 种产品，因此有很大的机会扩展其产品线。此外，e.l.f.最大的优势之一是其影响者营销机制，这将直接与 Rhode 品牌结合。</p>
</div><p>However, the biggest growth driver for consumer products is distribution gains. If you want to find a consumer stock with a lot of upside potential, look for one that is getting into more stores and gaining shelf space. E.l.f. has been doing that over the past several years with its namesake brand, but now it gets to do the same thing with Rhode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，消费品的最大增长驱动力是分销的提升。如果你想找到一只具有巨大上行潜力的消费股，寻找那些进入更多商店并获得货架空间的股票。e.l.f.在过去几年中已经在其自有品牌上做到这一点，但现在它可以对 Rhode 做同样的事情。</p>
</div><p>Even before the acquisition, Rhode was set to enter Sephora stores this fall, and it successfully launched its products at all Sephora stores and online in the U.S. and Canada earlier this month. It will enter U.K. Sephora stores later this fall. Sephora has more than 3,200 stores around the world, so this is a big opportunity for the brand moving forward. It's also worth noting that Sephora will be carrying 16 Rhode products at launch, so it's already started to expand its product lineup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在收购之前，Rhode 也计划在今年秋季进入 Sephora 商店，并在本月成功在美国和加拿大的所有 Sephora 商店及在线推出其产品。它将在今年秋季晚些时候进入英国的 Sephora 商店。Sephora 在全球拥有超过 3200 家门店，因此这对该品牌未来来说是一个巨大的机会。值得注意的是，Sephora 在推出时将携带 16 种 Rhode 产品，因此它已经开始扩展其产品线。</p>
</div><p>Sephora is also likely just the start. <strong>Ulta Beauty</strong> is the next logical retail partner for the Rhode brand, given that e.l.f. already has a solid relationship with the company, which sells both prestige and mass market cosmetics and skincare products. <strong>Target</strong> is another potential option down the road, as e.l.f. has gained a lot of shelf space at the retailer and it still gives a more upscale vibe than other mass market retailers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sephora 可能只是个开始。<strong>Ulta Beauty</strong> 是 Rhode 品牌下一个合乎逻辑的零售合作伙伴，因为 e.l.f.已经与该公司建立了良好的关系，该公司销售高端和大众市场的化妆品及护肤产品。<strong>Target</strong> 也是未来的一个潜在选择，因为 e.l.f.在该零售商那里获得了大量货架空间，并且它仍然比其他大众市场零售商更具高端氛围。</p>
</div><h2>Is the stock still a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只股票仍然值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>I firmly believe that one of the best trades an investor can make is buying a consumer stock ahead of distribution gains. It doesn't matter if the product is dog food, energy drinks, or beauty products. Increased distribution generally leads to outsized revenue growth, which the market then rewards. E.l.f. used this playbook once, and now it can now run it back with Rhode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我坚信，投资者可以做出的最佳交易之一就是在分销提升之前购买消费股。无论产品是狗粮、能量饮料还是美容产品，增加的分销通常会导致超额的收入增长，市场也会给予回报。e.l.f.曾经使用过这一策略，现在它可以再次在 Rhode 上运用。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the stock still has a relatively attractive valuation given the growth in front of it. While it currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42 (based on analysts' estimates for fiscal 2026), its price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is only 0.5. A stock with a positive PEG ratio of less than 1 is typically viewed as undervalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，考虑到未来的增长，这只股票的估值仍然相对吸引人。虽然它目前的前瞻市盈率为 42（基于分析师对 2026 财年的预估），但其市盈率与增长比（PEG）仅为 0.5。PEG 比率为正且低于 1 的股票通常被视为被低估。</p>
</div><p>Between its distribution opportunity and valuation, this growth stock looks like it has plenty of upside ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其分销机会和估值之间，这只成长股看起来有很大的上行空间。</p>
</div>

预测：E.l.f. Beauty 将成为我今年最佳投资之一。以下是原因