<p>金融行业在这一年中表现稳定，年初至今（YTD）上涨了 10.82%，在标准普尔 500 指数的 11 个行业中排名第四。然而，在美联储本周降低基准利率之后——这是自 2024 年 12 月以来中央银行首次采取此举——金融行业在下半年及 2026 年可能会迎来更多机遇。</p>
<p>预计周三的降息可能是一个长期降息周期的开始，金融行业显然是这一调整货币政策的受益者。</p>
<p>因为借款成本的降低，企业可以重组现有债务，以更低的利率进行新的资本支出，并且可能通过释放的现金流增加并购活动。</p>
<p>然而，我更关注的是美联储的降息如何影响本已停滞不前的美国房地产市场，该市场一直面临历史高位的负担能力问题。根据消费者金融保护局（CFPB）的数据，今年早些时候，每月新开设的用于购买或再融资主要住宅、度假屋或投资物业的抵押贷款数量和金额接近自 2006 年以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>然而，在本周的 FOMC 会议之前，一些令人鼓舞的数据被披露出来。</p>
<p>尽管 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款已经接近近一年来的最低水平，CNBC 报道的数据显示，再融资需求激增近 60%。</p>
<p>随着预计在 2025 年剩余时间内会有更多降息，PNC 金融服务集团（NYSE: PNC）等超级区域银行可能会因贷款发放增加而受到显著影响。</p>
<h2>PNC 正在进行并购狂潮</h2>
<p>也许 PNC 正试图抢占即将到来的抵押贷款再融资红利，本月早些时候，这家超级区域银行宣布以 41 亿美元收购 FirstBank（及其 120 家零售分支机构，资产约为 260 亿美元），这使 PNC 在美国最具吸引力的房地产市场之一的科罗拉多州和亚利桑那州扩大了业务。</p>
<p>回到之前提到的 CFPB 数据，尽管整体贷款发放接近历史低点，但美国某些地区的抵押贷款需求仍然很高。例如，亚利桑那州的贷款发放同比增长近 32%。</p>
<p>收购 FirstBank 使 PNC 成为丹佛市场最大的银行。它还将使公司在亚利桑那州拥有超过 70 家分支机构，同时将其合并资产增至约 5750 亿美元。通过这一举措，PNC 巩固了其作为连续收购者的地位。</p>
<p>在过去的 19 年中，这家金融服务公司收购了 24 家公司。从 2017 年到 2019 年，它将六家公司纳入其旗下。</p>
<p>最近收购 FirstBank 标志着该银行今年的第二次重大并购举措，也是自 2022 年以来的第二次。然而，其所有子公司和核心业务的价值直接反映在 PNC 的市值和股票估值的增长上。</p>
<p>在 2006 年收购潮开始之前，该银行的市值为 181.2 亿美元。PNC 的市值已飙升至 802 亿美元，增长近 343%。</p>
<p>在同一时期，该公司的股票也为股东带来了类似的增长。在收购潮开始之前，PNC 的股价低于每股 64 美元。其当前每股 203.77 美元的价格反映出 221% 的增值。</p>
<h2>结果证明了一切</h2>
<p>这一增长导致公司资产负债表和收入报表的膨胀。自 2016 年以来，PNC 的增长情况如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>总资产增长 56%</li>
<li>净收入增长 50%</li>
<li>每股收益（EPS）增长 85%</li>
</ul>
<p>当公司在 7 月 16 日公布第二季度财报时，每股收益为 3.85 美元，超出华尔街的 EPS 预期 3.56 美元，EPS 的增长尤为显著。根据公司最近的财报电话会议，PNC 在第二季度的贷款增长是自 2022 年第四季度以来最强劲的。</p>
<p>基于非常有吸引力的前瞻市盈率 13.35，PNC 的收益预计将在明年增长 12.69%，从每股 15.37 美元增至每股 17.32 美元。</p>
<p>这主要与上述并购活动的实际效果以及对贷款发放活动增加的预测有关。PNC 对其净利息收入的前瞻指引上调，从 6% 提高至 7%。</p>
<p>机构持股比例接近 84%，而空头头寸仅为 1.82%。PNC 的股息目前收益率为 3.34%，公司已连续 14 年提高分红。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 PNC 金融服务集团吗？</h2>
<p>在你考虑 PNC 金融服务集团之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐在更广泛市场关注之前购买……而 PNC 金融服务集团并不在名单上。</p>
<p>尽管 PNC 金融服务集团目前在分析师中获得了适度买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>查看这五只股票</p>

PNC金融服务

<p>在美联储最近降息后，PNC 金融服务集团有望迎来潜在的抵押贷款再融资热潮，受益于贷款发放的增加。金融行业表现强劲，而 PNC 最近以 41 亿美元收购 FirstBank，进一步增强了其在关键住房市场的影响力。PNC 的市值多年来显著上涨，反映了其成功的并购战略以及资产和收益的强劲增长。随着贷款增长的预期和良好的收益前景，PNC 在未来成功的道路上处于良好位置</p>

<p>The financials sector has had a steady year, with a 10.82% year-to-date (YTD) gain, which is good for fourth-best among the S&amp;P 500’s 11 sectors. But in the wake of the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark interest rate this week—something the central bank hasn’t done since December 2024—there could be much more in store for financials throughout the second half of the year and into 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行业在这一年中表现稳定，年初至今（YTD）上涨了 10.82%，在标准普尔 500 指数的 11 个行业中排名第四。然而，在美联储本周降低基准利率之后——这是自 2024 年 12 月以来中央银行首次采取此举——金融行业在下半年及 2026 年可能会迎来更多机遇。</p>
</div><p>With the expectation that Wednesday’s cut could be the start of a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, financials are an obvious beneficiary of this adjusted monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计周三的降息可能是一个长期降息周期的开始，金融行业显然是这一调整货币政策的受益者。</p>
</div><p>That’s because, with the cost of borrowing coming down, companies can restructure their existing debt, take on new capex spending at lower rates and perhaps, with freed-up cash flow, increase their mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因为借款成本的降低，企业可以重组现有债务，以更低的利率进行新的资本支出，并且可能通过释放的现金流增加并购活动。</p>
</div><p>However, I’m more focused on how the Fed’s rate cuts could impact an otherwise stalled U.S. housing market that has been dealing with historically high unaffordability. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), earlier this year, the number and dollar volume of new mortgages opened each month to purchase or refinance a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property was near their lowest levels since at least 2006.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我更关注的是美联储的降息如何影响本已停滞不前的美国房地产市场，该市场一直面临历史高位的负担能力问题。根据消费者金融保护局（CFPB）的数据，今年早些时候，每月新开设的用于购买或再融资主要住宅、度假屋或投资物业的抵押贷款数量和金额接近自 2006 年以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>However, some promising data have been revealed in the lead-up to this week’s FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在本周的 FOMC 会议之前，一些令人鼓舞的数据被披露出来。</p>
</div><p>While 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were already approaching their lowest levels in nearly a year, CNBC reported that refinancing demand surged nearly 60%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款已经接近近一年来的最低水平，CNBC 报道的数据显示，再融资需求激增近 60%。</p>
</div><p>And with more cuts expected through the remainder of 2025, super regional banks such as PNC Financial Services Group NYSE: PNC could see outsized impacts from increased loan originations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着预计在 2025 年剩余时间内会有更多降息，PNC 金融服务集团（NYSE: PNC）等超级区域银行可能会因贷款发放增加而受到显著影响。</p>
</div><h2>PNC Has Been on an M&amp;A Tear</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>PNC 正在进行并购狂潮</h2>
</div><p>Perhaps that looming mortgage refinance windfall is something PNC was looking to get ahead of, when earlier this month the super regional bank announced its $4.1 billion acquisition of FirstBank (and its 120 retail branches and has approximately $26 billion in assets), which expanded PNC’s presence into Colorado and Arizona, two of the most desirable housing markets in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许 PNC 正试图抢占即将到来的抵押贷款再融资红利，本月早些时候，这家超级区域银行宣布以 41 亿美元收购 FirstBank（及其 120 家零售分支机构，资产约为 260 亿美元），这使 PNC 在美国最具吸引力的房地产市场之一的科罗拉多州和亚利桑那州扩大了业务。</p>
</div><p>Returning to the previously cited CFPB data, while loan originations as a whole are approaching historic lows, certain pockets of the country are still seeing outsized mortgage demand. Arizona, for example, saw a year-over-year increase of nearly 32% in originations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到之前提到的 CFPB 数据，尽管整体贷款发放接近历史低点，但美国某些地区的抵押贷款需求仍然很高。例如，亚利桑那州的贷款发放同比增长近 32%。</p>
</div><p>The move to acquire FirstBank makes PNC the largest bank in the Denver market. It will also give the company more than 70 branches in Arizona while growing its consolidated assets to roughly $575 billion. In doing so, PNC has cemented its status as a serial acquirer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收购 FirstBank 使 PNC 成为丹佛市场最大的银行。它还将使公司在亚利桑那州拥有超过 70 家分支机构，同时将其合并资产增至约 5750 亿美元。通过这一举措，PNC 巩固了其作为连续收购者的地位。</p>
</div><p>Over the past 19 years, the financial services company has acquired 24 other companies. From 2017 to 2019, it brought six companies under its umbrella.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 19 年中，这家金融服务公司收购了 24 家公司。从 2017 年到 2019 年，它将六家公司纳入其旗下。</p>
</div><p>The recent acquisition of FirstBank marks the second big M&amp;A move for the bank this year, but also just the second since 2022. Nonetheless, the value of its collective subsidiaries and core businesses has been directly reflected by PNC’s growth in market cap and stock valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近收购 FirstBank 标志着该银行今年的第二次重大并购举措，也是自 2022 年以来的第二次。然而，其所有子公司和核心业务的价值直接反映在 PNC 的市值和股票估值的增长上。</p>
</div><p>Before that torrent of acquisitions began in 2006, the bank had a market cap of $18.12 billion. PNC’s market cap has surged to $80.20 billion, good for an increase of nearly 343% in fewer than 20 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2006 年收购潮开始之前，该银行的市值为 181.2 亿美元。PNC 的市值已飙升至 802 亿美元，增长近 343%。</p>
</div><p>Over the same period, the company’s stock has rewarded shareholders with similar growth. Before that run of acquisitions began, PNC traded for less than $64 per share. Its current price of $203.77 per share reflects an appreciation of 221%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在同一时期，该公司的股票也为股东带来了类似的增长。在收购潮开始之前，PNC 的股价低于每股 64 美元。其当前每股 203.77 美元的价格反映出 221% 的增值。</p>
</div><h2>The Proof Is in the Pudding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结果证明了一切</h2>
</div><p>The result, that growth has resulted in a swelling of both the company’s balance sheets and income statements. Since 2016, PNC has seen an increase of:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一增长导致公司资产负债表和收入报表的膨胀。自 2016 年以来，PNC 的增长情况如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>56% in total assets</li>
<li>50% in net income</li>
<li>85% in earnings per share (EPS)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>总资产增长 56%</li>
<li>净收入增长 50%</li>
<li>每股收益（EPS）增长 85%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>That growth in EPS was particularly pronounced when the company reported Q2 earnings on July 16, announcing $3.85 per share, beating Wall Street’s EPS consensus of $3.56. According to the company’s most recent earnings call, in Q2, PNC saw its strongest loan growth since Q4 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当公司在 7 月 16 日公布第二季度财报时，每股收益为 3.85 美元，超出华尔街的 EPS 预期 3.56 美元，EPS 的增长尤为显著。根据公司最近的财报电话会议，PNC 在第二季度的贷款增长是自 2022 年第四季度以来最强劲的。</p>
</div><p>Based on a very attractive forward price-to-earnings multiple of 13.35, PNC’s earnings are expected to grow 12.69% next year, from $15.37 per share to $17.32 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于非常有吸引力的前瞻市盈率 13.35，PNC 的收益预计将在明年增长 12.69%，从每股 15.37 美元增至每股 17.32 美元。</p>
</div><p>Much of that concerns the realized effects of the aforementioned M&amp;A activity and projections surrounding increased loan origination activity. PNC’s upward revision to its forward guidance for net interest income increased from 6% to 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这主要与上述并购活动的实际效果以及对贷款发放活动增加的预测有关。PNC 对其净利息收入的前瞻指引上调，从 6% 提高至 7%。</p>
</div><p>Institutional ownership stands at nearly 84%, while short interest is just 1.82%. PNC’s dividend currently yields 3.34%, with the company having increased its payout for 14 consecutive years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机构持股比例接近 84%，而空头头寸仅为 1.82%。PNC 的股息目前收益率为 3.34%，公司已连续 14 年提高分红。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in The PNC Financial Services Group Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 PNC 金融服务集团吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider The PNC Financial Services Group, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你考虑 PNC 金融服务集团之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and The PNC Financial Services Group wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐在更广泛市场关注之前购买……而 PNC 金融服务集团并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While The PNC Financial Services Group currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 PNC 金融服务集团目前在分析师中获得了适度买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

在美联储降息之后，PNC 金融服务可能会迎来抵押贷款再融资的热潮