<p>你的投资组合是否需要一个新的增长名称？也许是一只由于人工智能的出现而没有飙升至高估值的股票？这样的股票确实存在。你只需深入挖掘一下，穿透市场上最受欢迎名称所制造的噪音。</p>
<p>其中一个隐藏的宝石是一家名为 <strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -0.27%) 的年轻公司。以下是它的业务以及你现在应该考虑它的原因。</p>
<h2>什么是 Upstart？</h2>
<p>你可能已经对 Upstart 有所了解，但如果你最近才偶然发现这个名字，以下是它的基本情况。简单来说，Upstart 是一种新型的信用局。</p>
<p>在它们的初期，像 <strong>Equifax</strong>、<strong>TransUnion</strong> 和 <strong>Experian</strong> 这样的传统信用局在当时可用的工具下做得还不错。它们三家都是在互联网出现之前成立的，其中两家甚至是在任何可以被视为现代计算机的东西发明之前创建的。验证个人收入并手动跟踪任何逾期或未付款项在当时实际上是一项相当了不起的成就。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwODcvYnVzaW5lc3MtbWVldGluZy1iYW5raW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwODcvYnVzaW5lc3MtbWVldGluZy1iYW5raW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>与此同时，数据存储和信息共享技术显然已经得到了改善。然而，传统信用局确定信用评分的方法却没有改变。它们仍然根据个人的支付历史、当前债务、收入以及信用历史的年龄等标准分配量化分数。</p>
<p>但现在有了更好的方法。使用一种考虑每个人超过 1,600 个数据点的人工智能算法，Upstart 能够做到传统信用局无法做到的事情。它能够提供一个超准确的个人信用 worthiness 的图景。而且它可以在几秒钟内完成，通过互联网随时将这些信息传递给潜在的贷款人。</p>
<p>老实说，令人惊讶的是，在前谷歌高管、现任首席执行官 Dave Girouard 于 2012 年与其他前谷歌高管 Anna Counselman 和统计科学专家 Paul Gu 一起创办公司之前，居然没有人做到这一点。</p>
<p>无论如何，自公司在 2020 年 12 月首次公开募股以来，股东们得到了丰厚的回报。该股票的价格比首次公开募股时的 20 美元上涨了超过 240%，并且比首次在公开交易所交易时的价格上涨了超过 50%。</p>
<p>不过，这仅仅是个开始。仍然有大量的上行潜力可以挖掘。</p>
<h2>买入 Upstart 股票的三个理由</h2>
<p>有几个令人信服的理由可以让你在此时投资 Upstart。但其中三个理由足够突出，值得关注。</p>
<h3>1. 技术有效</h3>
<p>这不仅仅是一个无意义的解决方案，解决一个并不存在的问题。算法是有效的。Upstart 的平台比传统信用局多出 43% 的贷款批准率。而且，它促成的三分之一贷款的利率低于传统批准方式所提供的利率。这对消费者和贷款人都是一个双赢，更不用说当潜在借款人有资格进行购买时受益的中介了。</p>
<h3>2. 贷款人越来越接受它</h3>
<p>有效的技术是一回事，市场相信并愿意使用的技术又是另一回事。在这方面，Upstart 技术的采用起初是缓慢的。到 2020 年首次公开募股时，只有少数贷款人在使用其平台，2021 年促成了 41 亿美元的贷款，为公司带来了 3.05 亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>然而，去年，Upstart 的解决方案使超过 100 家贷款人批准了近 60 亿美元的贷款，带来了 6.37 亿美元的收入。公司预计今年的收入将超过 10 亿美元，分析师预计明年的收入为 13.4 亿美元，2027 年的销售额为 16 亿美元。在这 16 亿美元中，预计将有 2.16 亿美元转化为净利润，而今年的净利润可能接近盈亏平衡。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwODcvMDkxNzI1LXVwc3RhcnQtcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwODcvMDkxNzI1LXVwc3RhcnQtcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：Simply Wall St. 作者图表。</p>
<h3>3. 你可以以折扣价入场</h3>
<p>考虑到这里的财政轨迹，人们会期望 Upstart 股票飙升。它确实经历过一些看涨的时刻。但自去年底以来，这些时刻并没有持续太久。</p>
<p>尽管公司的股票在 2 月和 3 月的市场崩溃后与其他股票一起恢复，但它们并没有像其他股票那样持续上涨。相反，它们从 7 月的高点回落，现在的交易价格与 11 月时相当。市场仍然对持续通胀的经济影响感到相当担忧——这是 Girouard 在 8 月的第二季度财报电话会议上表达的担忧。</p>
<p>然而，投资者可能对这种担忧的定价过高。分析师似乎也这么认为。尽管股票最近回调，分析师社区仍支持 78.79 美元的共识目标，这比 Upstart 股票目前的价格高出 15%。这对于开始新的交易来说并不是一个坏的顺风。</p>
<h2>只需不要失去对你所购买内容的视角</h2>
<p>一个有前景的投资？当然。但并非没有风险。即使其收益预计在未来几年内增长并显著扩大利润率，其净收益率仍然相当薄弱。只需一点波动，就可能对这些脆弱的看涨预期造成相当大的损害。</p>
<p>市场上并没有真正的护城河来阻止潜在竞争者进入，使用类似的信用评分技术，包括那些熟悉的信用局。尽管如此，这并不是让耐受波动和风险的投资者回避 Upstart 股票的理由。</p>
<p>至于后者，尽管没有显著的实质性护城河，但贷款行业对变革的不感兴趣实际上充当了一个护城河。Upstart 有时间继续成为 AI 驱动贷款业务的主导品牌。由于其技术已经成熟并可用，贷款机构几乎没有必要考虑其他可能表现更好的替代方案。</p>
<p>至于前者，尽管这家年轻的企业在一个季度甚至一年之间仍然有些不可预测，但向前看五年。Upstart 的平台优于其他信用评分技术。即使股票未能以直线向前的方式反映这种增长，纯粹的实用性也将推动长期增长。</p>

UPST

<p>Upstart Holdings (UPST) 是一种新型信用局，利用人工智能算法比传统信用局更准确地评估信用 worthiness。自 2020 年 12 月上市以来，该公司经历了显著增长，股价上涨超过 240%。考虑投资 Upstart 的三个理由包括：1）其有效的技术使贷款批准率提高了 43%；2）贷方的日益采用；3）尽管强劲的收入增长预测，当前股价折扣，预计今年收入将超过 10 亿美元</p>

<p>Is your portfolio in need of a new growth name? Perhaps a stock that hasn't raced to a nosebleed valuation thanks to the advent of artificial intelligence? They're out there. You just have to dig a little deeper to find them, pushing through all the noise being created by the market's most popular names right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你的投资组合是否需要一个新的增长名称？也许是一只由于人工智能的出现而没有飙升至高估值的股票？这样的股票确实存在。你只需深入挖掘一下，穿透市场上最受欢迎名称所制造的噪音。</p>
</div><p>One of these hidden gems is a young company called <strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -0.27%). Here's what it does and why you should consider it now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一个隐藏的宝石是一家名为 <strong>Upstart Holdings</strong>(UPST -0.27%) 的年轻公司。以下是它的业务以及你现在应该考虑它的原因。</p>
</div><h2>What's Upstart?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么是 Upstart？</h2>
</div><p>You may already be familiar with Upstart, but if you've only recently stumbled across this name, here's the deal. In simplest terms, Upstart is a new kind of credit bureau.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能已经对 Upstart 有所了解，但如果你最近才偶然发现这个名字，以下是它的基本情况。简单来说，Upstart 是一种新型的信用局。</p>
</div><p>In their infancy, established credit bureaus like <strong>Equifax</strong>, <strong>TransUnion</strong>, and <strong>Experian</strong> did their job well enough with the tools available at the time. All three of them were launched before the advent of the internet, while two of them were created before the invention of anything that might even be considered something akin to a modern-day computer. Verifying an individual's income and manually keeping track of any late or missed payments back then was actually a pretty impressive achievement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在它们的初期，像 <strong>Equifax</strong>、<strong>TransUnion</strong> 和 <strong>Experian</strong> 这样的传统信用局在当时可用的工具下做得还不错。它们三家都是在互联网出现之前成立的，其中两家甚至是在任何可以被视为现代计算机的东西发明之前创建的。验证个人收入并手动跟踪任何逾期或未付款项在当时实际上是一项相当了不起的成就。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwODcvYnVzaW5lc3MtbWVldGluZy1iYW5raW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834087%2Fbusiness-meeting-banking.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Data storage and information-sharing technology have obviously changed for the better in the meantime. The traditional credit bureaus' approach to determining credit scores, however, hasn't. All of them still assign quantified scores to criteria like someone's payment history, current indebtedness, income, and how old that consumer's credit history is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，数据存储和信息共享技术显然已经得到了改善。然而，传统信用局确定信用评分的方法却没有改变。它们仍然根据个人的支付历史、当前债务、收入以及信用历史的年龄等标准分配量化分数。</p>
</div><p>But there's now a better way. Using an artificial intelligence algorithm that considers more than 1,600 data points about each and every individual, Upstart can do what traditional credit bureaus simply can't. That's come up with a hyper-accurate picture of someone's actual creditworthiness. And it can do so in a matter of seconds, delivering that information to a potential lender via the internet at any time of day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在有了更好的方法。使用一种考虑每个人超过 1,600 个数据点的人工智能算法，Upstart 能够做到传统信用局无法做到的事情。它能够提供一个超准确的个人信用 worthiness 的图景。而且它可以在几秒钟内完成，通过互联网随时将这些信息传递给潜在的贷款人。</p>
</div><p>Honestly, it's surprising someone didn't do it before former Google executive and current CEO Dave Girouard launched the company back in 2012 with fellow former Google executive Anna Counselman and statistical science expert Paul Gu.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>老实说，令人惊讶的是，在前谷歌高管、现任首席执行官 Dave Girouard 于 2012 年与其他前谷歌高管 Anna Counselman 和统计科学专家 Paul Gu 一起创办公司之前，居然没有人做到这一点。</p>
</div><p>Whatever the case, shareholders have been well-rewarded since the company's initial public offering back in December of 2020. The stock's up more than 240% from its IPO price of $20, and more than 50% above its first trade on a public exchange.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，自公司在 2020 年 12 月首次公开募股以来，股东们得到了丰厚的回报。该股票的价格比首次公开募股时的 20 美元上涨了超过 240%，并且比首次在公开交易所交易时的价格上涨了超过 50%。</p>
</div><p>This is still just the beginning, though. There's still a ton of upside potential left to tap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这仅仅是个开始。仍然有大量的上行潜力可以挖掘。</p>
</div><h2>Three reasons to buy Upstart stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买入 Upstart 股票的三个理由</h2>
</div><p>There are several compelling reasons to dive into a stake in Upstart here. But three stand out and are bullish enough in and of themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有几个令人信服的理由可以让你在此时投资 Upstart。但其中三个理由足够突出，值得关注。</p>
</div><h3>1. The technology works</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>1. 技术有效</h3>
</div><p>It's not just a meaningless solution to a problem that doesn't exist. The algorithm works. Upstart's platform allows for 43% more loan approvals than conventional credit bureaus do. And, one-third of the loans it prompts are made at a lower interest rate than would have been offered through a more traditional approval approach. It's a win for consumers as well as lenders, not to mention the middlemen that benefit when a would-be borrower qualifies to make a purchase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅仅是一个无意义的解决方案，解决一个并不存在的问题。算法是有效的。Upstart 的平台比传统信用局多出 43% 的贷款批准率。而且，它促成的三分之一贷款的利率低于传统批准方式所提供的利率。这对消费者和贷款人都是一个双赢，更不用说当潜在借款人有资格进行购买时受益的中介了。</p>
</div><h3>2. And lenders are increasingly embracing it</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2. 贷款人越来越接受它</h3>
</div><p>A technology that works is one thing. A technology that the marketplace believes in enough to use is another. In this vein, adoption of Upstart's technology got the expected slow start. As of the time of its 2020 public offering, only a handful of lenders were using its platform, facilitating $4.1 billion worth of loans in 2021, translating into revenue of $305 million for the company itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有效的技术是一回事，市场相信并愿意使用的技术又是另一回事。在这方面，Upstart 技术的采用起初是缓慢的。到 2020 年首次公开募股时，只有少数贷款人在使用其平台，2021 年促成了 41 亿美元的贷款，为公司带来了 3.05 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>Last year, though, Upstart's solution led over 100 lenders to approve nearly $6 billion in loans, translating into revenue of $637 million. The company expects to report a top line of more than $1 billion this year, en route to analysts' expectation of $1.34 billion revenue next year and 2027 sales of $1.6 billion. Of that $1.6 billion, $216 million of it should be turned into net profit versus this year's likely near-breakeven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，去年，Upstart 的解决方案使超过 100 家贷款人批准了近 60 亿美元的贷款，带来了 6.37 亿美元的收入。公司预计今年的收入将超过 10 亿美元，分析师预计明年的收入为 13.4 亿美元，2027 年的销售额为 16 亿美元。在这 16 亿美元中，预计将有 2.16 亿美元转化为净利润，而今年的净利润可能接近盈亏平衡。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwODcvMDkxNzI1LXVwc3RhcnQtcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834087%2F091725-upstart-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Simply Wall St. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Simply Wall St. 作者图表。</p>
</div><h3>3. You can step in at a discounted price</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>3. 你可以以折扣价入场</h3>
</div><p>Given the fiscal trajectory here, one would expect Upstart stock to be soaring. And it's certainly had its bullish moments. But none of those moments have been seen for very long since late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这里的财政轨迹，人们会期望 Upstart 股票飙升。它确实经历过一些看涨的时刻。但自去年底以来，这些时刻并没有持续太久。</p>
</div><p>While the company's shares recovered with the rest of the market following February's and March's meltdown, they have not followed through like other stocks have. Rather, they've peeled back a bit from July's high, and are now trading where they were in November. The market is still pretty worried about the economic impact of lingering inflation -- a concern Girouard expressed during August's second-quarter earnings call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司的股票在 2 月和 3 月的市场崩溃后与其他股票一起恢复，但它们并没有像其他股票那样持续上涨。相反，它们从 7 月的高点回落，现在的交易价格与 11 月时相当。市场仍然对持续通胀的经济影响感到相当担忧——这是 Girouard 在 8 月的第二季度财报电话会议上表达的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Investors, however, are arguably pricing in too much of this concern. Analysts seem to think so, anyway. The analyst community still supports a consensus target of $78.79 despite the stock's recent pullback, which is 15% above Upstart shares' present price. That's not a bad tailwind to start out a new trade with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者可能对这种担忧的定价过高。分析师似乎也这么认为。尽管股票最近回调，分析师社区仍支持 78.79 美元的共识目标，这比 Upstart 股票目前的价格高出 15%。这对于开始新的交易来说并不是一个坏的顺风。</p>
</div><h2>Just don't lose perspective on what you're buying into</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>只需不要失去对你所购买内容的视角</h2>
</div><p>A promising prospect? Sure. But not one without its risks. Even if its earnings are poised to grow and dramatically widen profit margin rates over the course of the coming couple of years, its net earnings rates are still rather thin. It wouldn't take much turbulence to do plenty of relative damage to these fragile bullish expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个有前景的投资？当然。但并非没有风险。即使其收益预计在未来几年内增长并显著扩大利润率，其净收益率仍然相当薄弱。只需一点波动，就可能对这些脆弱的看涨预期造成相当大的损害。</p>
</div><p>There's also no real moat to keep would-be competitors from entering the market with a similar credit-scoring technology, including the familiar credit bureaus themselves. Neither is a reason for volatility-tolerant and risk-tolerant investors to avoid Upstart shares, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场上并没有真正的护城河来阻止潜在竞争者进入，使用类似的信用评分技术，包括那些熟悉的信用局。尽管如此，这并不是让耐受波动和风险的投资者回避 Upstart 股票的理由。</p>
</div><p>As to the latter, while there's no significant tangible moat, the lending industry's disinterest in embracing change effectively serves as one. Upstart has time to continue becoming the dominant name in the AI-powered lending business. With its tech already refined and available, there would be little need for lenders to consider an alternative that isn't likely to perform any better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于后者，尽管没有显著的实质性护城河，但贷款行业对变革的不感兴趣实际上充当了一个护城河。Upstart 有时间继续成为 AI 驱动贷款业务的主导品牌。由于其技术已经成熟并可用，贷款机构几乎没有必要考虑其他可能表现更好的替代方案。</p>
</div><p>And as to the former, although the young business is still somewhat unpredictable from one quarter or even one year to the next, look five years down the road. Upstart's platform is superior to alternative credit-scoring tech. Sheer practicality will drive long-term growth here, even if the stock doesn't reflect this growth with straight-line forward progress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于前者，尽管这家年轻的企业在一个季度甚至一年之间仍然有些不可预测，但向前看五年。Upstart 的平台优于其他信用评分技术。即使股票未能以直线向前的方式反映这种增长，纯粹的实用性也将推动长期增长。</p>
</div>

购买 Upstart 股票的三个理由：抓住机会，刻不容缓