<p>沃伦·巴菲特因其长期持有投资的偏好而广为人知。他在 1988 年致 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.62%)(BRK.B 0.46%) 股东的信中写道：“当我们拥有优秀企业的部分股份以及优秀的管理团队时，我们最喜欢的持有期限是永远。”</p>
<p>但巴菲特在 2016 年致股东的信中澄清了他的观点。他表示：“我们并没有承诺伯克希尔会永远持有任何可交易证券。” 这对于今天的伯克希尔投资者来说确实是个现实，他们看到巴菲特在过去三年里出售了价值 1770 亿美元的股票。但有一些股票，巴菲特在可预见的未来，甚至可能永远不太可能出售。</p>
<p>事实上，伯克希尔刚刚增加了其在两只股票上的持股比例，他在 2023 年致股东的信中表示，伯克希尔预计将无限期持有这些股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5MTIvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5MTIvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>在当今市场中寻找伟大的价值</h2>
<p>在过去几年中，沃伦·巴菲特面临的最大挑战是寻找股市中的良好价值。整体来看，股票价格上涨的速度超过了财务业绩，导致创纪录的高估值。代表 500 家美国最大公司的标准普尔 500 指数目前的前瞻市盈率为 22.4，远高于其历史平均水平的中十几倍。</p>
<p>早在去年二月，巴菲特就感叹道：“在这个国家，只有少数几家公司能够真正推动伯克希尔的发展。” 拥有 3440 亿美元现金可供投资，巴菲特的可投资股票范围仅限于全球最大的公司，而这些公司的估值上涨速度超过了较小公司的估值。</p>
<p>但巴菲特找到了一组足够大的公司，可以吸收来自伯克希尔的大量资本。他在八月底投入了超过 4 亿美元。这时，伯克希尔增加了对 <strong>三菱</strong>(MSBHF 1.51%)(MTSU.Y 1.47%) 和 <strong>三井</strong>(MITSY 1.30%)(MITSF 4.00%) 这两家日本五大贸易公司的持股，其他三家包括 <strong>伊藤忠</strong>、<strong>住友</strong> 和 <strong>丸红</strong>。这些贸易公司是庞大的综合企业，几乎在你能想到的每个行业都有业务。</p>
<p>三菱在美国最为人知的可能是其汽车公司。虽然这是母公司的一个重要持股，但该公司还在能源、自然资源和零售方面拥有资产。如果你曾经去过日本，看到每个街区都有的罗森便利店，那是三菱持有 50% 股份的公司。伯克希尔的子公司国家赔偿公司在八月底将其在三菱的持股比例提高了 0.5 个百分点。根据当时的股价，这笔购买的成本可能在 4 亿到 4.5 亿美元之间。</p>
<p>三井几乎和三菱一样大，其运营重心主要集中在液化天然气和其他自然资源及金属上。其他显著的持股包括对 <strong>彭斯基汽车集团</strong> 的 20% 股份。管理层表示，国家赔偿公司在三菱披露的同一天也增加了对该贸易公司的持股，但没有公布购买的具体细节。</p>
<p>这两只股票显然具有价值。三菱目前的交易价格低于 1.5 倍的账面价值，在八月底的披露之前，交易价格低于 1.4 倍的账面价值。三井的估值更低，交易价格低于 1.4 倍的账面价值，在八月份接近 1.25 倍。这些估值可能受到关税担忧的影响，但美国和日本在九月初达成了贸易协议，消除了对这些股票的压制。这是巴菲特在他人恐惧时成功贪婪的又一个例子。</p>
<h2>什么使它们成为永恒的持股？</h2>
<p>巴菲特赞扬了这五家日本大贸易公司，指出它们的运营方式与伯克希尔哈撒韦本身相似。它们保持强劲的资产负债表，仅将约三分之一的收益以股息形式返还给股东。虽然它们会在股票提供良好价值时偶尔进行股票回购，但大部分资本用于发展业务和寻找新的投资机会。巴菲特还指出，它们都不愿意发行新股。</p>
<p>换句话说，这些公司的管理层是 “优秀的”，符合巴菲特的首选持股期限。此外，巴菲特预见到与这些大型综合企业合作的潜在机会。它们的管理团队在更多行业和市场中拥有专业知识，而伯克希尔有充足的资本支持新的投资。巴菲特表示，他希望他的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔 “在未来与这五家公司高效合作”。</p>
<p>随着日本贸易公司的股票都以吸引人的估值交易，巴菲特和阿贝尔继续增加伯克希尔的持股也就不足为奇了。伯克希尔已获得超过 10% 持股比例的许可。通过最近的购买，它已经超过了三菱（可能还有三井）的持股水平。但仍然有机会进行额外的购买。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>沃伦·巴菲特已增加伯克希尔哈撒韦在三菱和三井的股份，投资超过 4 亿美元于这些日本贸易公司，并计划无限期持有。尽管在过去三年中出售了 1770 亿美元的股票，巴菲特仍然看好这些公司，因为它们的运营模式与伯克希尔相似，保持着强劲的资产负债表并再投资收益。最近的美日贸易协议缓解了关税担忧，使这些股票对长期投资具有吸引力。巴菲特预计在他的接班人格雷格·阿贝尔的领导下，与这些企业集团未来将有更多合作</p>

<p>Warren Buffett is well known for his preference for holding investments long term. &#34;When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever,&#34; he wrote in his 1988 letter to <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.62%)(BRK.B 0.46%) shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特因其长期持有投资的偏好而广为人知。他在 1988 年致 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.62%)(BRK.B 0.46%) 股东的信中写道：“当我们拥有优秀企业的部分股份以及优秀的管理团队时，我们最喜欢的持有期限是永远。”</p>
</div><p>But Buffett clarified his comments in his 2016 letter to shareholders. &#34;We have made no <em>commitment</em> that Berkshire will hold <em>any</em> of its marketable securities forever.&#34; That certainly rings true with Berkshire investors today, who have seen Buffett sell off $177 billion worth of stock over the last three years. But there are a handful of stocks that Buffett looks unlikely to sell for the foreseeable future, perhaps even forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但巴菲特在 2016 年致股东的信中澄清了他的观点。他表示：“我们并没有承诺伯克希尔会永远持有任何可交易证券。” 这对于今天的伯克希尔投资者来说确实是个现实，他们看到巴菲特在过去三年里出售了价值 1770 亿美元的股票。但有一些股票，巴菲特在可预见的未来，甚至可能永远不太可能出售。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Berkshire just increased its stakes in two stocks he said Berkshire expects to maintain indefinitely in his 2023 letter to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，伯克希尔刚刚增加了其在两只股票上的持股比例，他在 2023 年致股东的信中表示，伯克希尔预计将无限期持有这些股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5MTIvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833912%2Fbuffett9-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Finding great value in today's market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在当今市场中寻找伟大的价值</h2>
</div><p>Warren Buffett's biggest challenge over the last few years has been finding good value in the stock market. Stock prices, as a group, have climbed faster than financial results, leading to record-high valuations. The S&amp;P 500, which represents 500 of the biggest U.S.-based companies, now sports a forward PE of 22.4, well above its historical average in the mid-teens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，沃伦·巴菲特面临的最大挑战是寻找股市中的良好价值。整体来看，股票价格上涨的速度超过了财务业绩，导致创纪录的高估值。代表 500 家美国最大公司的标准普尔 500 指数目前的前瞻市盈率为 22.4，远高于其历史平均水平的中十几倍。</p>
</div><p>As early as last February, Buffett was lamenting, &#34;There remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at Berkshire.&#34; With $344 billion in cash to deploy, Buffett's universe of investable stocks is limited to only the biggest companies in the world, which have climbed in valuation faster than smaller companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早在去年二月，巴菲特就感叹道：“在这个国家，只有少数几家公司能够真正推动伯克希尔的发展。” 拥有 3440 亿美元现金可供投资，巴菲特的可投资股票范围仅限于全球最大的公司，而这些公司的估值上涨速度超过了较小公司的估值。</p>
</div><p>But Buffett has found one set of companies that are big enough to absorb a significant amount of capital from Berkshire. And he deployed over $400 million worth in late August. That's when the company added to its stakes in <strong>Mitsubishi</strong>(MSBHF 1.51%)(MTSU.Y 1.47%) and <strong>Mitsui</strong>(MITSY 1.30%)(MITSF 4.00%), two of the five big Japanese trading houses, which also includes <strong>Itochu</strong>, <strong>Sumitomo</strong>, and <strong>Marubeni</strong>. The trading houses are massive conglomerates with businesses in just about every industry you can think of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但巴菲特找到了一组足够大的公司，可以吸收来自伯克希尔的大量资本。他在八月底投入了超过 4 亿美元。这时，伯克希尔增加了对 <strong>三菱</strong>(MSBHF 1.51%)(MTSU.Y 1.47%) 和 <strong>三井</strong>(MITSY 1.30%)(MITSF 4.00%) 这两家日本五大贸易公司的持股，其他三家包括 <strong>伊藤忠</strong>、<strong>住友</strong> 和 <strong>丸红</strong>。这些贸易公司是庞大的综合企业，几乎在你能想到的每个行业都有业务。</p>
</div><p>Mitsubishi may be best known in the United States for its automotive company. And while that's a significant holding of the parent company, the firm also holds assets in energy, natural resources, and retail. If you've ever been to Japan and seen Lawson convenience stores on every other block, that's a company 50% owned by Mitsubishi. Berkshire subsidiary National Indemnity increased its stake in Mitsubishi by half a percentage point in late August. The purchase likely cost between $400 million and $450 million based on the stock price at the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三菱在美国最为人知的可能是其汽车公司。虽然这是母公司的一个重要持股，但该公司还在能源、自然资源和零售方面拥有资产。如果你曾经去过日本，看到每个街区都有的罗森便利店，那是三菱持有 50% 股份的公司。伯克希尔的子公司国家赔偿公司在八月底将其在三菱的持股比例提高了 0.5 个百分点。根据当时的股价，这笔购买的成本可能在 4 亿到 4.5 亿美元之间。</p>
</div><p>Mitsui is almost as big as Mitsubishi with a heavy weighting in its operations toward liquefied natural gas and other natural resources and metals. Other notable holdings include a 20% stake in <strong>Penske Automotive Group</strong>. Management said National Indemnity had also increased its stake in the trading house the same day as the Mitsubishi disclosure, but no details of the purchase were released.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三井几乎和三菱一样大，其运营重心主要集中在液化天然气和其他自然资源及金属上。其他显著的持股包括对 <strong>彭斯基汽车集团</strong> 的 20% 股份。管理层表示，国家赔偿公司在三菱披露的同一天也增加了对该贸易公司的持股，但没有公布购买的具体细节。</p>
</div><p>There's clear value in these two stocks. Mitsubishi currently trades below 1.5-times book value, trading below 1.4-times book value until the disclosure in late August. Mitsui has an even lower valuation, trading below 1.4-times book and closer to 1.25-times in August. Those valuations were likely weighed down by tariff fears, but the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement in early September, removing the overhang from the stocks. That's another example of Buffett successfully becoming greedy when others are fearful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两只股票显然具有价值。三菱目前的交易价格低于 1.5 倍的账面价值，在八月底的披露之前，交易价格低于 1.4 倍的账面价值。三井的估值更低，交易价格低于 1.4 倍的账面价值，在八月份接近 1.25 倍。这些估值可能受到关税担忧的影响，但美国和日本在九月初达成了贸易协议，消除了对这些股票的压制。这是巴菲特在他人恐惧时成功贪婪的又一个例子。</p>
</div><h2>What makes them forever holdings?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么使它们成为永恒的持股？</h2>
</div><p>Buffett has praised each of the five big Japanese trading houses, noting they all operate in a manner similar to Berkshire Hathaway itself. They maintain strong balance sheets and only return about one-third of their earnings to shareholders as dividends. While they'll occasionally execute share repurchases when the stock offers good value, the bulk of their capital goes toward building their businesses and finding new investment opportunities. Buffett also points out they're all reluctant to issue new shares of their stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特赞扬了这五家日本大贸易公司，指出它们的运营方式与伯克希尔哈撒韦本身相似。它们保持强劲的资产负债表，仅将约三分之一的收益以股息形式返还给股东。虽然它们会在股票提供良好价值时偶尔进行股票回购，但大部分资本用于发展业务和寻找新的投资机会。巴菲特还指出，它们都不愿意发行新股。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the management at these companies is &#34;outstanding,&#34; fitting the bill for Buffett's preferred holding period. On top of that, Buffett foresees potential opportunities to partner with the large conglomerates. Their management teams bring expertise across many more industries and markets and Berkshire has plenty of capital to back new investments. Buffett said he expects his successor Greg Abel to &#34;work productively with the five companies in the future.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，这些公司的管理层是 “优秀的”，符合巴菲特的首选持股期限。此外，巴菲特预见到与这些大型综合企业合作的潜在机会。它们的管理团队在更多行业和市场中拥有专业知识，而伯克希尔有充足的资本支持新的投资。巴菲特表示，他希望他的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔 “在未来与这五家公司高效合作”。</p>
</div><p>With the stocks of the Japanese trading houses all trading at attractive valuations, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Buffett and Abel continue adding to Berkshire's holdings. Berkshire received permission to exceed the 10% stake threshold for all of them. It already surpassed that level for Mitsubishi (and likely Mitsui) with its recent purchases. But the opportunity is still there for additional purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着日本贸易公司的股票都以吸引人的估值交易，巴菲特和阿贝尔继续增加伯克希尔的持股也就不足为奇了。伯克希尔已获得超过 10% 持股比例的许可。通过最近的购买，它已经超过了三菱（可能还有三井）的持股水平。但仍然有机会进行额外的购买。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Just Added Over $400 Million to These 2 Stocks He Plans to Hold Forever

- 巴菲特在 2023 年信中表示，伯克希尔将长期持有三家日本交易公司。  
- 伯克希尔近期增持三家交易公司，显示出对其未来的信心。  
- 这些公司管理优秀，估值吸引，符合巴菲特的投资标准。  

沃伦·巴菲特刚刚向这两只他计划长期持有的股票增加了超过 4 亿美元的投资