<p>当 <strong>家得宝</strong>（HD -0.68%）发声时，股市会倾听。这家蓝筹股 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 成员是消费者支出和房地产市场的风向标。</p>
<p>近年来，家得宝的业绩令人失望。盈利持续下滑，预计 2025 财年的同店销售仅增长 1%。但这种疲软的增长可能很快就会被抛在脑后。</p>
<p>为了最大限度地提高就业率并在长期内将通胀降低至 2%，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储将利率下调 0.25%——理由是劳动力市场疲软和 “略微上升” 的通胀。为了刺激消费者支出并避免衰退，可能还会有更多的降息。尽管人工智能（AI）推动股市创下新高，但预计美国国内生产总值在 2025 年的增长仅为 1.6%，并且在 2028 年前每年的增长都低于 2%——这表明整体经济的疲软。</p>
<p>以下是降息对家得宝的好消息，以及这只分红股票现在是否值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ0MjMvYS1wZXJzb24tdGFraW5nLWEtYmVhbS1vZi1kaW1lbnNpb25hbC1sdW1iZXItb2ZmLWEtc2hlbGYtYXQtYS1ob21lLWRlcG90LWhvbWUtaW1wcm92ZW1lbnQtc3RvcmUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ0MjMvYS1wZXJzb24tdGFraW5nLWEtYmVhbS1vZi1kaW1lbnNpb25hbC1sdW1iZXItb2ZmLWEtc2hlbGYtYXQtYS1ob21lLWRlcG90LWhvbWUtaW1wcm92ZW1lbnQtc3RvcmUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>迫切需要的刺激</h2>
<p>高利率对消费者支出有显著影响，特别是在可自由支配的商品、服务和旅行方面。当借款变得更加容易时，消费者可能会选择汽车贷款或抵押贷款，因为每月还款额较低。或者他们可能会为家庭改善项目融资。在这种情况下，降低利率可以导致翻新项目的增加，这对家得宝是有利的。</p>
<p>去家得宝购买一些零件来修理电器与重新装修整个房间或房屋的某个部分之间有很大区别。家得宝的糟糕业绩表明，许多客户正在推迟大型项目，直到条件改善。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第二季度的 8 月财报电话会议上，家得宝表示，降低利率将有助于刺激需求并减轻抵押贷款压力。家得宝首席执行官泰德·德克表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>不过，当我们与客户交谈时，我们的每一组消费者和专业人士，推迟大型项目的首要原因是经济不确定性，这一因素大于项目价格、劳动力可用性以及我们过去讨论的各种因素。经济不确定性是第一位的，差距很大。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>良好的就业前景和较低的利率无疑会给家得宝的住宅业务带来提振。然而，该公司也在其专业和商业承包商业务上进行了大量投资。2024 年 6 月，家得宝完成了对 SRS Distribution 的 182.5 亿美元收购，扩展了其家居改善和建筑业务。SRS 专注于向承包商销售屋顶产品——这为家得宝的零售店提供了交叉销售机会。</p>
<p>家得宝在整个行业下滑的情况下进行 SRS 收购——这表明它在进行长期投资。SRS 实际上使家得宝在下一个周期扩张期间更加像一个蓄势待发的弹簧，可能会放大公司从降低利率中获得的好处。</p>
<h2>对家庭改善反弹的理所当然</h2>
<p>市场是前瞻性的，更关心企业的未来走向而非过去的表现。不幸的是，对于考虑投资家得宝的投资者来说，该股票的价格已经被定价为利率将继续下降。</p>
<p>正如您在以下图表中看到的，家得宝的盈利在疫情前持续上升，随后在疫情期间进入了一个新阶段，因为消费者加速了对自助家居改善项目的支出，这一切都受到低利率的推动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5877077495d548ea9b8c5fea13a84ff.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5877077495d548ea9b8c5fea13a84ff.png"/></p>
<p>HD 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>但尽管家得宝的股价接近历史最高点，其盈利在近年来却持续下滑——这表明投资者正在超越公司的短期困境，期待复苏。</p>
<p>在 2 月份，家得宝将其股息提高至 15 年来的最低水平，并向投资者发出关于家居改善行业长期低迷的严峻警告。因此，可能需要几次降息才能真正推动家得宝的消费者支出。</p>
<p>与此同时，该股票的估值偏高，市盈率为 28.2，前瞻市盈率为 27.7，而 10 年期的中位市盈率仅为 23。这意味着，家得宝的盈利需要比其股价增长快 20%，才能使估值回落到过去十年的历史平均水平。</p>
<h2>优质公司，溢价估值</h2>
<p>家得宝是一家优秀的公司，但其股价已经为复苏定价。因此，这只股票现在并不是一个绝对的买入机会。</p>
<p>好消息是，家得宝仍然可能是长期投资者的良好选择，他们相信公司在门店扩张、同店销售增长方面的潜力，以及 SRS 收购将会带来回报。如果家得宝进入一个多年的双位数盈利增长期，其估值可能会迅速下降，使该股票更具吸引力。</p>
<p>家得宝还可能重新加速其股息增长率，延续其连续 16 年的年度股息增长记录。家得宝的股息收益率为 2.2%——这高于 <strong>标普 500</strong> 的 1.2% 收益率。</p>
<p>总而言之，家得宝现在并不是一个显而易见的买入机会，因为股价在预期降息之前已经上涨。但对于长期投资者来说，它仍然是一个不错的买入选择。</p>

家得宝

<p>随着美联储降息，家得宝可能会受益于消费者在家居改善项目上的支出增加。尽管最近的财报令人失望，且增长预测疲软，但较低的借贷成本可能会刺激需求。家得宝的首席执行官指出，经济不确定性导致客户推迟大型项目。该公司还通过收购扩大其专业承包商业务。然而，当前股票价格较高，这表明需要显著的盈利增长来证明其估值的合理性。投资者应保持谨慎，因为市场预期复苏</p>

<p>When <strong>Home Depot</strong>(HD -0.68%) talks, the stock market listens. The blue chip <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> component is a bellwether for consumer spending and the housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 <strong>家得宝</strong>（HD -0.68%）发声时，股市会倾听。这家蓝筹股 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 成员是消费者支出和房地产市场的风向标。</p>
</div><p>In recent years, Home Depot's results have disappointed. Earnings have been falling, and fiscal 2025 same-store sales are expected to grow by just 1%. But that sluggish growth could quickly fade into the rearview mirror.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，家得宝的业绩令人失望。盈利持续下滑，预计 2025 财年的同店销售仅增长 1%。但这种疲软的增长可能很快就会被抛在脑后。</p>
</div><p>In an effort to maximize employment and reduce inflation to 2% over the long run, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are cutting interest rates by 0.25% -- citing a weak labor market and &#34;somewhat elevated&#34; inflation. More cuts could be in the cards to boost consumer spending and avoid a recession. Although artificial intelligence (AI) has been driving the stock market to record highs, U.S. gross domestic product growth is projected to be just 1.6% in 2025 and under 2% every year through 2028 -- illustrating weakness in the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了最大限度地提高就业率并在长期内将通胀降低至 2%，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储将利率下调 0.25%——理由是劳动力市场疲软和 “略微上升” 的通胀。为了刺激消费者支出并避免衰退，可能还会有更多的降息。尽管人工智能（AI）推动股市创下新高，但预计美国国内生产总值在 2025 年的增长仅为 1.6%，并且在 2028 年前每年的增长都低于 2%——这表明整体经济的疲软。</p>
</div><p>Here's why an interest rate cut is great news for Home Depot, and whether the dividend stock is a buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是降息对家得宝的好消息，以及这只分红股票现在是否值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ0MjMvYS1wZXJzb24tdGFraW5nLWEtYmVhbS1vZi1kaW1lbnNpb25hbC1sdW1iZXItb2ZmLWEtc2hlbGYtYXQtYS1ob21lLWRlcG90LWhvbWUtaW1wcm92ZW1lbnQtc3RvcmUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834423%2Fa-person-taking-a-beam-of-dimensional-lumber-off-a-shelf-at-a-home-depot-home-improvement-store.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A much-needed jolt</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>迫切需要的刺激</h2>
</div><p>Higher interest rates have a significant impact on consumer spending, particularly on discretionary goods, services, and travel. When money is more readily available for borrowing, consumers may opt for a car loan or a mortgage because the monthly payment is lower. Or they may finance a home improvement project. In this vein, lower interest rates can lead to an increase in renovation projects, which benefits Home Depot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高利率对消费者支出有显著影响，特别是在可自由支配的商品、服务和旅行方面。当借款变得更加容易时，消费者可能会选择汽车贷款或抵押贷款，因为每月还款额较低。或者他们可能会为家庭改善项目融资。在这种情况下，降低利率可以导致翻新项目的增加，这对家得宝是有利的。</p>
</div><p>There's a big difference between going to Home Depot for a few spare parts to fix an appliance and redoing an entire room or section of a house. And Home Depot's poor results suggest that a lot of customers are putting off big projects until conditions improve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去家得宝购买一些零件来修理电器与重新装修整个房间或房屋的某个部分之间有很大区别。家得宝的糟糕业绩表明，许多客户正在推迟大型项目，直到条件改善。</p>
</div><p>On its August earnings call (second quarter 2025), Home Depot said that lower interest rates would help boost demand and provide relief for mortgages. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said the following:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第二季度的 8 月财报电话会议上，家得宝表示，降低利率将有助于刺激需求并减轻抵押贷款压力。家得宝首席执行官泰德·德克表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>When we talk generally though to our customers, each of our sets of consumers and pros, the number one reason for deferring the large project is general economic uncertainty, that is larger than prices of projects, of labor availability, all the various things we've talked about in the past. By a wide margin, economic uncertainty is number one.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>不过，当我们与客户交谈时，我们的每一组消费者和专业人士，推迟大型项目的首要原因是经济不确定性，这一因素大于项目价格、劳动力可用性以及我们过去讨论的各种因素。经济不确定性是第一位的，差距很大。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The prospect of good-paying jobs and lower interest rates could certainly give Home Depot's residential business a lift. However, the company has also been investing heavily in its professional and commercial contractor business. In June 2024, Home Depot completed its $18.25 billion acquisition of SRS Distribution, expanding its home improvement and construction business. SRS specializes in selling roofing products to contractors -- which provides cross-selling opportunities with Home Depot's retail outlets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>良好的就业前景和较低的利率无疑会给家得宝的住宅业务带来提振。然而，该公司也在其专业和商业承包商业务上进行了大量投资。2024 年 6 月，家得宝完成了对 SRS Distribution 的 182.5 亿美元收购，扩展了其家居改善和建筑业务。SRS 专注于向承包商销售屋顶产品——这为家得宝的零售店提供了交叉销售机会。</p>
</div><p>Home Depot made the SRS acquisition in the middle of an industrywide downturn -- a sign that it is investing for the long term. SRS essentially makes Home Depot even more of a coiled spring for the next cyclical expansion period, potentially amplifying the benefits the company will feel from lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝在整个行业下滑的情况下进行 SRS 收购——这表明它在进行长期投资。SRS 实际上使家得宝在下一个周期扩张期间更加像一个蓄势待发的弹簧，可能会放大公司从降低利率中获得的好处。</p>
</div><h2>Taking a home improvement rebound for granted</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对家庭改善反弹的理所当然</h2>
</div><p>The market is forward-looking and cares more about where businesses are headed than where they have been. And unfortunately for investors considering Home Depot, the stock is already priced as if interest rates will continue to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场是前瞻性的，更关心企业的未来走向而非过去的表现。不幸的是，对于考虑投资家得宝的投资者来说，该股票的价格已经被定价为利率将继续下降。</p>
</div><p>As you can see in the following chart, Home Depot's earnings were on the rise leading up to the pandemic, then entered a new phase during the pandemic as consumers accelerated spending on do-it-yourself home improvement projects, driven by low interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如您在以下图表中看到的，家得宝的盈利在疫情前持续上升，随后在疫情期间进入了一个新阶段，因为消费者加速了对自助家居改善项目的支出，这一切都受到低利率的推动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5877077495d548ea9b8c5fea13a84ff.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5877077495d548ea9b8c5fea13a84ff.png"/></p>
<p>HD data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HD 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>But Home Depot's earnings have been ticking down in recent years even though its stock price is around an all-time high -- suggesting that investors are looking past the company's near-term struggles in anticipation of a recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管家得宝的股价接近历史最高点，其盈利在近年来却持续下滑——这表明投资者正在超越公司的短期困境，期待复苏。</p>
</div><p>In February, Home Depot raised its dividend by the lowest amount in 15 years and issued a dire warning to investors about a prolonged downturn in the home improvement industry. So it could take several interest rate cuts to really move the needle on consumer spending at Home Depot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月份，家得宝将其股息提高至 15 年来的最低水平，并向投资者发出关于家居改善行业长期低迷的严峻警告。因此，可能需要几次降息才能真正推动家得宝的消费者支出。</p>
</div><p>In the meantime, the stock is on the expensive side, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 and a forward P/E of 27.7 compared to a 10-year median P/E of just 23. Meaning that Home Depot's earnings would need to grow 20% faster than its stock price just for the valuation to come back down to historical averages over the last decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，该股票的估值偏高，市盈率为 28.2，前瞻市盈率为 27.7，而 10 年期的中位市盈率仅为 23。这意味着，家得宝的盈利需要比其股价增长快 20%，才能使估值回落到过去十年的历史平均水平。</p>
</div><h2>A quality company at a premium valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>优质公司，溢价估值</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot is an excellent company, but it is already priced for a recovery. So the stock isn't a screaming buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝是一家优秀的公司，但其股价已经为复苏定价。因此，这只股票现在并不是一个绝对的买入机会。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that Home Depot could still be a good buy for long-term investors who believe in the company's potential for store expansions, same-store sales growth, and that the SRS acquisition will pay off. If Home Depot enters a multiyear period of double-digit earnings growth, its valuation could quickly come down, making the stock more attractive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，家得宝仍然可能是长期投资者的良好选择，他们相信公司在门店扩张、同店销售增长方面的潜力，以及 SRS 收购将会带来回报。如果家得宝进入一个多年的双位数盈利增长期，其估值可能会迅速下降，使该股票更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Home Depot could also reaccelerate its dividend growth rate, building on its 16-year track record of consecutive annual dividend raises. Home Depot yields 2.2% -- which is better than the 1.2% yield of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝还可能重新加速其股息增长率，延续其连续 16 年的年度股息增长记录。家得宝的股息收益率为 2.2%——这高于 <strong>标普 500</strong> 的 1.2% 收益率。</p>
</div><p>All told, Home Depot isn't a no-brainer buy now because the stock price has run up ahead of anticipated rate cuts. But it's still a decent buy for long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总而言之，家得宝现在并不是一个显而易见的买入机会，因为股价在预期降息之前已经上涨。但对于长期投资者来说，它仍然是一个不错的买入选择。</p>
</div>

With Jerome Powell and the Fed Cutting Interest Rates, Is Home Depot a No-Brainer Dividend Stock to Buy for a Housing Market Recovery?

- Home Depot 近期业绩不佳，2025 财年同店销售预计仅增长 1%。  
- 美联储降息可能刺激消费者支出，利好 Home Depot 的装修业务。  
- 尽管前景乐观，Home Depot 股票已被高估，短期内不宜大量购买。

在杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储降息的背景下，家得宝是否是住房市场复苏时值得购买的理想股息股票？