<p>7 月 31 日，互联网设计公司 <strong>Figma</strong>(FIG -1.24%) 的股票以 85 美元开盘，首日收盘价超过 115 美元。次日，Figma 股票收于每股 122 美元，但此后一直处于下滑状态。</p>
<p>尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在 8 月份上涨了 1.9%，但该股票在 8 月份下跌了 39.2%。而在 9 月份情况并没有改善。截至 9 月 22 日，标准普尔 500 指数享受了一个异常强劲的月份，涨幅为 3.6%，而 Figma 股票又下跌了 16.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwNjcveW91bmctbWFuLXNpdHRpbmctcGVuc2l2ZWx5LWF0LWhpcy1jb21wdXRlci1sb29raW5nLXRob3VnaHRmdWxseS1hdC10aGUtc2NyZWVuLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWhpbS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwNjcveW91bmctbWFuLXNpdHRpbmctcGVuc2l2ZWx5LWF0LWhpcy1jb21wdXRlci1sb29raW5nLXRob3VnaHRmdWxseS1hdC10aGUtc2NyZWVuLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWhpbS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>综合来看，该股票在交易的第二天达到了历史最高点，目前已从该峰值下跌了 59%。如此大的跌幅，Figma 现在是否对长期投资者来说是个便宜的选择？</p>
<h2>Figma 股票下跌的两个原因</h2>
<p>这不是我提到的两个原因之一，但值得一提的是，Figma 仅在几周前进行了首次公开募股（IPO）。无论 IPO 股票是高质量还是低质量，_波动性_在这些早期月份都是常见的。</p>
<p>Figma 几乎可以保证给投资者带来一场惊心动魄的旅程，原因仅仅是它是一只新上市的股票。这也是一些投资者完全避免 IPO 股票的原因。</p>
<p>撇开一般的 IPO 波动性，Figma 在 9 月 3 日发布了 2025 年第二季度的业绩，这是它作为上市公司的首次报告，结果让投资者失望。这是股票下跌的原因之一。</p>
<p>在第二季度，该公司实现了 2.5 亿美元的收入，同比增长 41%。单从这一点来看，41% 的增长绝对是出色的。</p>
<p>但这里有两个方面的担忧。首先，这是从第一季度报告的 46% 增长的减速。其次，根据管理层的说法，这种减速才刚刚开始。</p>
<p>对于第三季度，Figma 预计在指导区间中点的收入增长为 33%。同样，这个数字单独来看是强劲的，但增长率的急剧下降仍然显而易见。对于 2025 年全年，该公司预计比去年增长 37%。这一全年指导暗示第四季度的增长率仅为 30%。</p>
<p>Figma 上市后最初因其作为成长股的潜力而飙升，但其增长速度正在迅速放缓——这是第一个问题。第二个问题是：在其峰值时，该股票的交易价格超过了销售额的 66 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts；PS 比率=市销率。</p>
<p>我见过一些股票以如此高的估值交易，仍然为投资者提供正的长期回报。尽管如此，这通常适用于仍在加速其收入的企业。</p>
<p>简而言之，投资者愿意为 Figma 股票支付高价，假设其增长将继续令人印象深刻。但放眼初始炒作，收入增长正在下滑，投资者正在重新考虑估值。</p>
<h2>预测 Figma 未来的表现</h2>
<p>《福布斯 2000》是全球 2000 家最大的上市公司的名单——这些都是大鱼。值得一提的是，Figma 已经获得了其中大部分客户。它的客户中有 78% 来自福布斯 2000，显示出其软件的广泛采用。</p>
<p>此外，大约三分之二的客户使用三种或更多的 Figma 软件产品。就软件企业而言，这是一种强劲的采用率。</p>
<p>然而，对于今天想要购买该股票的投资者来说，这反而成了一个逆风因素。它能够赢得的大客户相对较少。而且，由于许多客户已经采用了多个 Figma 产品，向客户推销更多服务也变得具有挑战性。在这种情况下，增长放缓是完全合理的。</p>
<p>换句话说，Figma 的业务已经如此成功，以至于寻找增量增长变得更加困难。一些投资者可能会反对这一说法，认为该公司仍然预计 2025 年将实现两位数的增长。</p>
<p>但考虑到该公司在今年早些时候将价格提高了超过 20%。它所预测的许多增长来自于提高价格，这种情况如果不加控制，可能会导致客户流失。</p>
<p>就我个人而言，我认为 Figma 股票在未来将表现不佳。毕竟，尽管最近出现了抛售，但它仍以超过 30 倍的销售额交易，使其成为市场上估值较高的软件股票之一。如果其收入增长继续放缓，估值可能会继续下降。</p>
<p>Figma 需要一些真正能够帮助业务维持增长的东西。好消息是，它手头有 16 亿美元的现金和可流动证券，可以资助大量的研发或推动收购。但目前，由于增长放缓，估值风险较高——即使在其下跌 59% 之后，我也不会现在购买该股票。</p>

<p>Figma 的股票自首次公开募股以来已下跌 59%，从最初的 122 美元高点跌至 8 月和 9 月的显著亏损。尽管 2025 年第二季度的年收入增长率达到 41%，但由于增长率放缓和超过 30 倍销售额的高估值，市场上出现了担忧。Figma 强大的客户基础包括 78% 的《福布斯》2000 强企业，但由于新客户获取有限和对价格上涨的依赖，增长挑战依然存在。分析师预测，除非 Figma 能够通过创新或收购维持增长，否则在市场上将表现不佳</p>

<p>On July 31, shares of internet design company <strong>Figma</strong>(FIG -1.24%) began trading at $85 and finished their first day at over $115. The following day, Figma stock closed at $122 per share, but it's been all downhill since then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月 31 日，互联网设计公司 <strong>Figma</strong>(FIG -1.24%) 的股票以 85 美元开盘，首日收盘价超过 115 美元。次日，Figma 股票收于每股 122 美元，但此后一直处于下滑状态。</p>
</div><p>The stock dropped 39.2% in August even though the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> was up 1.9% for the month. And things haven't improved in September. Whereas the S&amp;P 500 is enjoying an unusually strong month with a 3.6% gain as of Sept. 22, Figma stock has plunged another 16.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在 8 月份上涨了 1.9%，但该股票在 8 月份下跌了 39.2%。而在 9 月份情况并没有改善。截至 9 月 22 日，标准普尔 500 指数享受了一个异常强劲的月份，涨幅为 3.6%，而 Figma 股票又下跌了 16.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwNjcveW91bmctbWFuLXNpdHRpbmctcGVuc2l2ZWx5LWF0LWhpcy1jb21wdXRlci1sb29raW5nLXRob3VnaHRmdWxseS1hdC10aGUtc2NyZWVuLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWhpbS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833067%2Fyoung-man-sitting-pensively-at-his-computer-looking-thoughtfully-at-the-screen-in-front-of-him.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Adding it all up, the stock reached an all-time high on its second day of trading and is already down 59% from that peak. With this big of a drop, is Figma now a bargain for long-term investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，该股票在交易的第二天达到了历史最高点，目前已从该峰值下跌了 59%。如此大的跌幅，Figma 现在是否对长期投资者来说是个便宜的选择？</p>
</div><h2>Two reasons Figma stock is down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Figma 股票下跌的两个原因</h2>
</div><p>This isn't one of my two reasons, but it's worth mentioning that Figma had its initial public offering (IPO) only weeks ago. Regardless of whether an IPO stock is high quality or low quality, <em>volatility</em> is common in these early months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不是我提到的两个原因之一，但值得一提的是，Figma 仅在几周前进行了首次公开募股（IPO）。无论 IPO 股票是高质量还是低质量，_波动性_在这些早期月份都是常见的。</p>
</div><p>Figma was practically guaranteed to give investors a wild ride, simply because it's a recent IPO. It's why some investors avoid IPO stocks entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Figma 几乎可以保证给投资者带来一场惊心动魄的旅程，原因仅仅是它是一只新上市的股票。这也是一些投资者完全避免 IPO 股票的原因。</p>
</div><p>General IPO volatility aside, Figma reported results for the second quarter of 2025 on Sept. 3, its first report as a publicly-traded company, and it underwhelmed the investor community. This is one of the reasons the stock is down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>撇开一般的 IPO 波动性，Figma 在 9 月 3 日发布了 2025 年第二季度的业绩，这是它作为上市公司的首次报告，结果让投资者失望。这是股票下跌的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, the company generated revenue of $250 million, which was good for 41% year-over-year growth. In isolation, 41% growth is absolutely stellar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，该公司实现了 2.5 亿美元的收入，同比增长 41%。单从这一点来看，41% 的增长绝对是出色的。</p>
</div><p>But there is a twofold concern here. First, this is a deceleration from the 46% growth it reported in the first quarter. Second, the deceleration is only just beginning, according to management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这里有两个方面的担忧。首先，这是从第一季度报告的 46% 增长的减速。其次，根据管理层的说法，这种减速才刚刚开始。</p>
</div><p>For the third quarter, Figma expects 33% revenue growth at the midpoint of its guidance range. Again, this is a strong number in isolation but a sharp drop-off for its growth rate nevertheless. And for all of 2025, the company is guiding for a 37% jump from the previous year. This full-year guidance implies just a 30% growth rate for the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于第三季度，Figma 预计在指导区间中点的收入增长为 33%。同样，这个数字单独来看是强劲的，但增长率的急剧下降仍然显而易见。对于 2025 年全年，该公司预计比去年增长 37%。这一全年指导暗示第四季度的增长率仅为 30%。</p>
</div><p>Figma went public and initially surged based on its potential as a growth stock, but its growth is quickly slowing -- that's the first problem. Here's the second problem: At its peak, the stock traded at over 66 times sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Figma 上市后最初因其作为成长股的潜力而飙升，但其增长速度正在迅速放缓——这是第一个问题。第二个问题是：在其峰值时，该股票的交易价格超过了销售额的 66 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/faf62acf69bfccb446687f2dd97aebad.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts; PS ratio= price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts；PS 比率=市销率。</p>
</div><p>I've seen stocks trade at a lofty valuation such as this and still provide investors with positive long-term returns. That being said, this is usually the case for businesses that are still accelerating their top line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我见过一些股票以如此高的估值交易，仍然为投资者提供正的长期回报。尽管如此，这通常适用于仍在加速其收入的企业。</p>
</div><p>In short, it seems that investors were willing to pay a high price for Figma stock out of the gate, assuming its growth would continue to impress. But looking beyond the initial hype, revenue growth is trending downward, and investors are rethinking the valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，投资者愿意为 Figma 股票支付高价，假设其增长将继续令人印象深刻。但放眼初始炒作，收入增长正在下滑，投资者正在重新考虑估值。</p>
</div><h2>Projecting Figma's performance from here</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测 Figma 未来的表现</h2>
</div><p>The Forbes 2000 is a list of 2,000 of the largest publicly-traded companies in the world -- these are big fish. And to its credit, Figma has already landed most of them. It counts 78% of the Forbes 2000 as customers, showing how widely adopted its software is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《福布斯 2000》是全球 2000 家最大的上市公司的名单——这些都是大鱼。值得一提的是，Figma 已经获得了其中大部分客户。它的客户中有 78% 来自福布斯 2000，显示出其软件的广泛采用。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, around two-thirds of its customers use three or more of its software products. As far as software businesses go, that's a strong adoption rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，大约三分之二的客户使用三种或更多的 Figma 软件产品。就软件企业而言，这是一种强劲的采用率。</p>
</div><p>However, for investors looking to buy the stock today, this is counterintuitively a headwind. There are relatively few big customers that it could win from here. And upselling its customers to more services is challenging because of how many have already adopted multiple Figma products. With this context, a slowdown in growth makes perfect sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对于今天想要购买该股票的投资者来说，这反而成了一个逆风因素。它能够赢得的大客户相对较少。而且，由于许多客户已经采用了多个 Figma 产品，向客户推销更多服务也变得具有挑战性。在这种情况下，增长放缓是完全合理的。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Figma's business is already so successful that it makes incremental growth harder to find. Some investors may object to this statement, considering the company is still calling for double-digit growth in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，Figma 的业务已经如此成功，以至于寻找增量增长变得更加困难。一些投资者可能会反对这一说法，认为该公司仍然预计 2025 年将实现两位数的增长。</p>
</div><p>But consider that the company raised its prices by over 20% earlier this year. Much of the growth it's projecting comes from charging higher prices, which can't be too regular an occurrence without risking excessive customer churn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但考虑到该公司在今年早些时候将价格提高了超过 20%。它所预测的许多增长来自于提高价格，这种情况如果不加控制，可能会导致客户流失。</p>
</div><p>Personally, I believe Figma stock will underperform the market going forward. After all, it's still trading at over 30 times sales despite the recent sell-off, making it one of the more richly valued software stocks out there. If its revenue growth continues to slow, the valuation will likely keep coming down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就我个人而言，我认为 Figma 股票在未来将表现不佳。毕竟，尽管最近出现了抛售，但它仍以超过 30 倍的销售额交易，使其成为市场上估值较高的软件股票之一。如果其收入增长继续放缓，估值可能会继续下降。</p>
</div><p>Figma needs something that will truly help the business sustain its growth. The good news is it has $1.6 billion in cash and marketable securities at its disposal that can fund a lot of research and development or fuel acquisitions. But for now, the valuation risk is elevated due to its slowing growth -- I wouldn't buy the stock right now, even after its 59% drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Figma 需要一些真正能够帮助业务维持增长的东西。好消息是，它手头有 16 亿美元的现金和可流动证券，可以资助大量的研发或推动收购。但目前，由于增长放缓，估值风险较高——即使在其下跌 59% 之后，我也不会现在购买该股票。</p>
</div>

自八月以来 Figma 股价已下跌 59%，现在是否是购买 Figma 股票的好时机？