<p>期待已久的降息终于到来了，伴随着人们对加密货币价格可能再次全面飙升的希望。<strong>比特币</strong>(BTC -0.50%) 在宣布后的几个小时内上涨了 2%，而本月一直缓慢上升的 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -0.82%) 则上涨了超过 3%。</p>
<p>但是小型币种呢？其中一些确实表现良好。截至 9 月 18 日，<strong>雪崩</strong>(AVAX -3.01%) 在一周内上涨了近 20%，而 <strong>币安币</strong>(BNB 2.33%) 在同一时间段内上涨了近 9%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，今年加密货币夏季的一个显著特点是，只有比特币、以太坊和少数其他币种看到了显著的资金流入，其他项目则被冷落。加密货币爱好者希望美联储的降息以及证券交易委员会（SEC）预计将批准的一系列现货加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）可能是替代币所需要的推动力。让我们深入探讨一下这是否现实。</p>
<h2>什么是替代币季？</h2>
<p>替代币通常被定义为任何不是比特币的加密货币。而替代币季是指小型加密货币价格上涨的时期。通常表现为比特币在加密市场的主导地位下降、消费者情绪的变化以及替代币交易量的激增。</p>
<p>例如，在 2017-2018 年的替代币季，比特币在总市值中的份额降至 35% 以下，而替代币的份额超过 45%，根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据。类似地，在 2021 年的某些时点，替代币和比特币各自占据了加密市场现金的约 40%。</p>
<p>今天我们距离那个时刻还很遥远。比特币的主导地位接近 58%，以太坊为 13%，其余的替代币约占 30%。过去一个月，比特币的现金集中度略有下降，但还不足以宣告替代币季的到来。</p>
<p>替代币季可能是一些高风险项目带来强劲回报的时机。“可能” 是这里的关键字——许多替代币从未起步，有些则完全失败。</p>
<h2>为什么替代币季尚未到来</h2>
<p>距离加密货币市场开始摆脱漫长的加密冬季已经快一年了。加密市场市值在 8 月创下新高。但正如我们所见，只有少数加密货币在推动这些涨幅。</p>
<p>这部分是因为这次牛市的特点是机构资金流入和主流对加密货币及区块链技术的兴趣不断增加。到目前为止，SEC 仅批准了现货比特币和以太坊 ETF。机构投资者更关注成熟项目，而不愿意在更具投机性的代币和币种上冒险。</p>
<p>这不仅仅是机构投资者。我们的研究显示，如果你在四年前的最后一次加密热潮中对前 20 个替代币每个投资 200 美元，你的投资组合在几周前将下跌约 30%。那些投资组合仍然处于亏损状态的投资者这次可能会更加犹豫。</p>
<p>此外，上一次替代币季发生在 2021 年，当时利率较低，疫情刺激资金的注入使得投资者更愿意冒险。值得注意的是，现在的加密货币数量与之前的牛市相比多了数百万个。CoinMarketCap 数据显示，现在有超过 2100 万个加密货币，而在 2021 年时不到 21000 个。虽然仍然可以找到隐藏的加密宝石，但难度大大增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQzMjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Nzg0NzYyNC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQzMjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Nzg0NzYyNC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>降息和 SEC ETF 批准可能推动替代币</h2>
<p>影响替代币价格的两个因素可能正在发生变化。以下是原因：</p>
<h3>1. 降息可能使投资者更愿意冒险</h3>
<p>当利率较低时，借贷变得更便宜。这可能转化为对风险投资（包括加密货币）的更多流动性。较低的利率也使得投资者在债券和储蓄账户等投资中获得合理收益变得更加困难，从而激励他们考虑更具风险的资产。</p>
<h3>2. 大量 SEC 替代币 ETF 批准可能改变局势</h3>
<p>现货替代币 ETF 将使零售和机构投资者更容易投资。我们可能会在下个月看到更多此类 ETF。</p>
<p>SEC 刚刚发布了新的标准，以简化现货加密 ETF 的批准流程。大约 90 个加密 ETF 申请已经在审批中，这可能会打开闸门。不仅如此，还会有更多的多种加密 ETF，这将使投资者更容易获得替代币的投资机会。</p>
<h2>替代币季并非保证</h2>
<p>降息和即将到来的 ETF 批准所带来的推动力为另一个替代币季提供了最佳可能条件。然而，每个市场周期都是不同的。美联储的举措并没有引发太多的加密反弹，部分原因是投机已经提前推高了价格。不仅如此，经济不确定性和通货膨胀的担忧仍然影响着投资者情绪。</p>
<p>在不可预测的加密世界中，一切皆有可能。但替代币数量庞大意味着我们不太可能看到替代币价格的再次大幅上涨。然而，随着 ETF 批准的逐步落实，某些具有强大基本面或具有良好应用案例的项目可能会受益于机构资金的注入。</p>
<p>如果你考虑将替代币加入你的投资组合，请寻找管理风险的方法。例如，构建一个多样化的加密货币组合，以避免过度暴露于一两个领域。同时确保加密货币仅占你更广泛投资的一小部分。</p>

ETHE

GBTC

<p>最近美联储的降息引发了对加密货币市场潜在山寨币季的期待。比特币和以太坊在公告后出现了上涨，但许多小型币种仍然停滞不前。山寨币季的特征是非比特币加密货币价格上涨，但目前尚未出现，比特币的市场主导地位仍然很高。低利率和潜在的 SEC 对山寨币 ETF 的批准等因素可能会鼓励对山寨币的投资，但由于过去的表现和加密货币之间竞争加剧，市场仍然保持谨慎</p>

<p>The long-awaited interest rate cut has arrived, and with it hopes that crypto prices may soar again across the board. <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -0.50%), which has been creeping up all month, gained 2% in the hours after the announcement. <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH -0.82%) gained more than 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期待已久的降息终于到来了，伴随着人们对加密货币价格可能再次全面飙升的希望。<strong>比特币</strong>(BTC -0.50%) 在宣布后的几个小时内上涨了 2%，而本月一直缓慢上升的 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -0.82%) 则上涨了超过 3%。</p>
</div><p>But what about the smaller coins? Some of them are certainly doing well. As of Sept. 18, <strong>Avalanche</strong>(AVAX -3.01%) had gained almost 20% in a week and <strong>Binance Coin</strong>(BNB 2.33%) was up almost 9% in the same time period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是小型币种呢？其中一些确实表现良好。截至 9 月 18 日，<strong>雪崩</strong>(AVAX -3.01%) 在一周内上涨了近 20%，而 <strong>币安币</strong>(BNB 2.33%) 在同一时间段内上涨了近 9%。</p>
</div><p>Even so, one notable aspect of this year's crypto summer is that only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a handful of other coins have seen significant inflows, leaving other projects out in the cold. Crypto enthusiasts hope the Federal Reserve rate cut and expected raft of spot crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might be the boost altcoins need. Let's dive in and find out how realistic that might be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，今年加密货币夏季的一个显著特点是，只有比特币、以太坊和少数其他币种看到了显著的资金流入，其他项目则被冷落。加密货币爱好者希望美联储的降息以及证券交易委员会（SEC）预计将批准的一系列现货加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）可能是替代币所需要的推动力。让我们深入探讨一下这是否现实。</p>
</div><h2>What is altcoin season?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么是替代币季？</h2>
</div><p>Altcoins are usually defined as any cryptocurrency that isn't Bitcoin. And altcoin season is a time when prices of smaller cryptocurrencies rise. It is usually marked by a drop in Bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market, shifts in consumer sentiment, and a spike in altcoin trading volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>替代币通常被定义为任何不是比特币的加密货币。而替代币季是指小型加密货币价格上涨的时期。通常表现为比特币在加密市场的主导地位下降、消费者情绪的变化以及替代币交易量的激增。</p>
</div><p>For example, in the 2017-2018 altcoin season, Bitcoin's share of the total market cap fell below 35% while altcoins topped 45%, according to CoinMarketCap data. Similarly, at points in 2021, altcoins and Bitcoin each accounted for about 40% of the cash in crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在 2017-2018 年的替代币季，比特币在总市值中的份额降至 35% 以下，而替代币的份额超过 45%，根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据。类似地，在 2021 年的某些时点，替代币和比特币各自占据了加密市场现金的约 40%。</p>
</div><p>We're a long way from that today. Bitcoin dominance is at almost 58%, with Ethereum at 13% and the rest of the altcoins at about 30%. The concentration of cash in Bitcoin has dropped slightly during the past month, but not enough to declare that altcoin season is upon us.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天我们距离那个时刻还很遥远。比特币的主导地位接近 58%，以太坊为 13%，其余的替代币约占 30%。过去一个月，比特币的现金集中度略有下降，但还不足以宣告替代币季的到来。</p>
</div><p>Altcoin season can be a time when some of those high-risk projects deliver strong returns. &#34;Can&#34; is the key word here -- many altcoins never get off the starting block and some fail completely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>替代币季可能是一些高风险项目带来强劲回报的时机。“可能” 是这里的关键字——许多替代币从未起步，有些则完全失败。</p>
</div><h2>Why altcoin season hasn't arrived yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么替代币季尚未到来</h2>
</div><p>It's almost a year since the cryptocurrency market started to shake off its long crypto winter. The crypto market cap set a new high in August. But as we've seen, only a few cryptos are driving those gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>距离加密货币市场开始摆脱漫长的加密冬季已经快一年了。加密市场市值在 8 月创下新高。但正如我们所见，只有少数加密货币在推动这些涨幅。</p>
</div><p>That's partly because this bull run has been characterized by increasing institutional inflows and mainstream interest in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. So far, the SEC has only approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutional investors are more interested in established projects and less willing to take risks on more speculative tokens and coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这部分是因为这次牛市的特点是机构资金流入和主流对加密货币及区块链技术的兴趣不断增加。到目前为止，SEC 仅批准了现货比特币和以太坊 ETF。机构投资者更关注成熟项目，而不愿意在更具投机性的代币和币种上冒险。</p>
</div><p>It isn't only institutional investors. Our research shows that if you had invested $200 in each of the top 20 altcoins during the last crypto boom four years ago, your portfolio would have been down about 30% as of a few weeks ago. Investors whose portfolios are still underwater may be more hesitant this time around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅仅是机构投资者。我们的研究显示，如果你在四年前的最后一次加密热潮中对前 20 个替代币每个投资 200 美元，你的投资组合在几周前将下跌约 30%。那些投资组合仍然处于亏损状态的投资者这次可能会更加犹豫。</p>
</div><p>Plus, the last altcoin season took place in 2021, when interest rates were low and an injection of pandemic stimulus cash made investors more willing to take risks. It's also worth noting that there are now many millions of cryptocurrencies out there compared with previous cryptocurrency bull runs. CoinMarketCap data shows there are more than 21 million cryptos now compared with less than 21,000 in 2021. It's still possible to find hidden crypto gems, but it's a lot harder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，上一次替代币季发生在 2021 年，当时利率较低，疫情刺激资金的注入使得投资者更愿意冒险。值得注意的是，现在的加密货币数量与之前的牛市相比多了数百万个。CoinMarketCap 数据显示，现在有超过 2100 万个加密货币，而在 2021 年时不到 21000 个。虽然仍然可以找到隐藏的加密宝石，但难度大大增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQzMjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Nzg0NzYyNC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834329%2Fgettyimages-1487847624.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Rate cut and SEC ETF approval could boost altcoins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息和 SEC ETF 批准可能推动替代币</h2>
</div><p>Two of the factors weighing on altcoin prices could be changing. Here's how:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影响替代币价格的两个因素可能正在发生变化。以下是原因：</p>
</div><h3>1. Rate cuts may make investors more willing to take risk</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>1. 降息可能使投资者更愿意冒险</h3>
</div><p>When interest rates are low, borrowing becomes cheaper. This can translate into more liquidity for riskier investments, including cryptocurrencies. Lower rates also make it harder for investors to earn decent yields on things like bonds and savings accounts, offering an incentive to consider riskier assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当利率较低时，借贷变得更便宜。这可能转化为对风险投资（包括加密货币）的更多流动性。较低的利率也使得投资者在债券和储蓄账户等投资中获得合理收益变得更加困难，从而激励他们考虑更具风险的资产。</p>
</div><h3>2. A slew of SEC altcoin ETF approvals could shift the balance</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2. 大量 SEC 替代币 ETF 批准可能改变局势</h3>
</div><p>Spot altcoin ETFs would make it easier for both retail and institutional investors to invest. And we will probably see a lot more of them in the next month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货替代币 ETF 将使零售和机构投资者更容易投资。我们可能会在下个月看到更多此类 ETF。</p>
</div><p>The SEC has just released new standards that would streamline the spot crypto ETF approval process. With about 90 crypto ETF applications already in the pipeline, this could open the floodgates. Not only that, but there will be more multi-crypto ETFs which would make it easier for investors to gain altcoin exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SEC 刚刚发布了新的标准，以简化现货加密 ETF 的批准流程。大约 90 个加密 ETF 申请已经在审批中，这可能会打开闸门。不仅如此，还会有更多的多种加密 ETF，这将使投资者更容易获得替代币的投资机会。</p>
</div><h2>Altcoin season is not guaranteed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>替代币季并非保证</h2>
</div><p>The boost from rate cuts and impending ETF approvals offers the best possible conditions for another altcoin season. However, every market cycle is different. The Fed's move hasn't triggered much of a crypto rally, in part because speculation had already pushed prices up beforehand. Not only that, but economic uncertainty and inflation concerns continue to weigh on investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降息和即将到来的 ETF 批准所带来的推动力为另一个替代币季提供了最佳可能条件。然而，每个市场周期都是不同的。美联储的举措并没有引发太多的加密反弹，部分原因是投机已经提前推高了价格。不仅如此，经济不确定性和通货膨胀的担忧仍然影响着投资者情绪。</p>
</div><p>Anything is possible in the unpredictable world of crypto. But the sheer volume of altcoins means it's unlikely we will see another broad rise in altcoin prices. However, as the ETF approvals start to come through, certain projects with strong fundamentals or sectors with solid use cases may benefit from an injection of institutional cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在不可预测的加密世界中，一切皆有可能。但替代币数量庞大意味着我们不太可能看到替代币价格的再次大幅上涨。然而，随着 ETF 批准的逐步落实，某些具有强大基本面或具有良好应用案例的项目可能会受益于机构资金的注入。</p>
</div><p>If you're considering adding altcoins to your portfolio, look for ways to manage the risk. For example, build a diversified mix of cryptocurrencies so you're not overly exposed to one or two sectors. And make sure that crypto only makes up a small part of your wider investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你考虑将替代币加入你的投资组合，请寻找管理风险的方法。例如，构建一个多样化的加密货币组合，以避免过度暴露于一两个领域。同时确保加密货币仅占你更广泛投资的一小部分。</p>
</div>

Will the Fed Rate Cut Trigger Altcoin Season?

- 加息预期的降低可能刺激加密货币价格上涨。  
- 比特币和以太坊在公告后分别上涨 2% 和 3%。  
- 机构投资者对成熟项目的兴趣限制了小币种的表现。  

美联储的降息是否会引发山寨币的活跃期？