<p>“七大巨头” 是一些最大、最知名的科技公司。它们的表现可以作为整体行业状况的一个衡量标准。如果它们表现良好并且支出较多，这可能会为整体经济带来显著增长。</p>
<p>然而，这些股票中的一些表现远远好于其他股票。在过去几年中，“七大巨头” 中表现最弱的股票是 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.70%）。这家科技巨头拥有巨大的影响力，因为其 iPhone 在全球范围内常被视为地位的象征。该公司仍然创造着巨额利润。</p>
<p>但苹果股票最近的表现相对平平。情况会有所改变吗？现在是否是一个被低估的买入时机？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwOTcvcGVyc29uLWxpc3RlbmluZy10by1tdXNpYy1vbi10aGVpci1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwOTcvcGVyc29uLWxpc3RlbmluZy10by1tdXNpYy1vbi10aGVpci1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么投资者对苹果的股票不看好？</h2>
<p>苹果是全球最有价值的公司之一，市值约为 3.8 万亿美元。然而，近年来它的股票表现不佳。自 2023 年以来，其价值几乎翻了一番，但考虑到科技行业的增长，投资者在这一时间段内选择 “七大巨头” 中的任何其他股票都会更好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="541" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png"/></p>
<p>自 2023 年以来 “七大巨头” 股票表现数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>在这段时间内，苹果的表现好于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（上涨约 74%），但在科技股飙升的时期，该公司却是落后者而非领头羊。</p>
<p>但这并不令人惊讶，因为该公司并没有开发自己的聊天机器人，并且推迟了其 iPhone 人工智能（AI）功能的推出。虽然它对安全和隐私的关注是务实的，但并没有赢得增长型投资者的青睐。人们担心苹果在当今科技领域并不是一个创新者。考虑到其庞大的生态系统和全球约 14 亿 iPhone 用户，它可能没有太多动力去快速推出新产品和服务。</p>
<h2>如果苹果不再是顶尖科技股，它的估值是否应该调整？</h2>
<p>苹果的业务非常出色，盈利能力极高。在过去 12 个月中，其净收入总计近 1000 亿美元，利润率达到令人印象深刻的 24%，而在此期间的总收入为 4090 亿美元。</p>
<p>但如果公司增长速度不快，且其增长前景没有发生重大变化，那么就会质疑该股票的溢价是否合理。目前，苹果股票的市盈率（P/E）为 37。然而，该公司在过去三个季度的销售总额为 3137 亿美元，同比增长仅略低于 6%。</p>
<p>在这样的增长率下，我认为该股票的市盈率应该远低于 30。虽然人工智能是该业务的一个重要变量，可能会触发 iPhone 的升级周期并解锁更多增长，但未来仍然是一个大问号。如果苹果能够证明其怀疑者是错误的，并在人工智能领域取得成功，那么该股票可能会迎来反弹，但在这个阶段几乎没有理由期待这种情况。</p>
<h2>苹果的业务非常出色，但投资者不应忽视其高估值</h2>
<p>不可否认的是，苹果在智能手机市场的主导地位。但考虑到其未来的诸多不确定性，以及其 iPhone 与其他人工智能手机的竞争力，股票理应以折扣而非目前的高溢价进行交易。虽然从 iPhone 切换到其他品牌的手机可能并不容易，但随着时间的推移，消费者可能会因缺乏创新而感到沮丧。</p>
<p>多年来，苹果并不是一家领先的创新公司，而人工智能的兴起只是突显了它在当今科技领域的落后。如果它无法迅速说服投资者相信自己走在正确的轨道上，该股票可能会继续表现不佳，而更大的风险是它可能面临大幅修正。</p>
<p>股票的高估值是一个问题，因为如果你今天决定投资苹果，几乎没有安全边际。因此，至少在目前，我不会购买该股票，而是采取观望的态度。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果（AAPL）与 “七大科技巨头” 中的同行相比表现不佳，尽管它是一家盈利能力强、市值达到 3.8 万亿美元的公司。虽然其股票在 2023 年几乎翻了一番，但仍落后于科技行业的增长。对其缺乏创新，尤其是在人工智能领域的担忧，以及 37 的高市盈率表明该股票可能被高估。分析师建议采取谨慎的态度，建议在苹果的增长前景改善之前不要购买其股票</p>

<p>The &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; is a collection of some of the largest, most recognizable names in tech. How they perform can serve as a gauge of how the overall sector is doing. And with deep pockets, if they're doing well and spending a lot of money, that can result in a lot of growth for the overall economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大巨头” 是一些最大、最知名的科技公司。它们的表现可以作为整体行业状况的一个衡量标准。如果它们表现良好并且支出较多，这可能会为整体经济带来显著增长。</p>
</div><p>Some of those stocks, however, have been doing far better than others. The weakest performer in the Magnificent Seven over the past couple of years has been <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.70%). The tech giant yields significant power as its iPhones are often seen as status symbols all over the globe. And the business still generates mammoth profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些股票中的一些表现远远好于其他股票。在过去几年中，“七大巨头” 中表现最弱的股票是 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.70%）。这家科技巨头拥有巨大的影响力，因为其 iPhone 在全球范围内常被视为地位的象征。该公司仍然创造着巨额利润。</p>
</div><p>But Apple stock has nonetheless been a relatively lackluster buy of late. Could that change, and is it an underrated buy right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但苹果股票最近的表现相对平平。情况会有所改变吗？现在是否是一个被低估的买入时机？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQwOTcvcGVyc29uLWxpc3RlbmluZy10by1tdXNpYy1vbi10aGVpci1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834097%2Fperson-listening-to-music-on-their-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why have investors been down on Apple's stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么投资者对苹果的股票不看好？</h2>
</div><p>Apple is one of the most valuable companies in the world, with its market cap hovering around $3.8 trillion. And yet, it has been an underperforming stock to own in recent years. Since 2023, it has nearly doubled in value, but given the growth in the tech sector, investors would have been better off going with any other stock in the Magnificent Seven over that time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果是全球最有价值的公司之一，市值约为 3.8 万亿美元。然而，近年来它的股票表现不佳。自 2023 年以来，其价值几乎翻了一番，但考虑到科技行业的增长，投资者在这一时间段内选择 “七大巨头” 中的任何其他股票都会更好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4edb131036ec6402ad08cefc7d08e68.png"/></p>
<p>&#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stock performance since 2023 data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年以来 “七大巨头” 股票表现数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Apple has done better than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> (which is up around 74%) over that stretch, but at a time when tech stocks have been soaring, the company has been a laggard rather than a leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这段时间内，苹果的表现好于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（上涨约 74%），但在科技股飙升的时期，该公司却是落后者而非领头羊。</p>
</div><p>But it's not exactly a surprise, given that the company hasn't been developing its own chatbot, and it has delayed the rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) features for its iPhones. Its focus on safety and privacy is practical, but it hasn't been winning over growth investors. The concern is that Apple isn't much of an innovator in tech these days. And with its massive ecosystem and the roughly 1.4 billion iPhone users in the world, it may not see a whole lot of incentive in rushing new products and services out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这并不令人惊讶，因为该公司并没有开发自己的聊天机器人，并且推迟了其 iPhone 人工智能（AI）功能的推出。虽然它对安全和隐私的关注是务实的，但并没有赢得增长型投资者的青睐。人们担心苹果在当今科技领域并不是一个创新者。考虑到其庞大的生态系统和全球约 14 亿 iPhone 用户，它可能没有太多动力去快速推出新产品和服务。</p>
</div><h2>Does Apple's valuation deserve a trim if it's no longer a top tech stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果苹果不再是顶尖科技股，它的估值是否应该调整？</h2>
</div><p>Apple has a phenomenal business, and it is highly profitable. Over the trailing 12 months, its net income has totaled nearly $100 billion, which translates into an impressive 24% profit margin as its revenue over that stretch totaled $409 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的业务非常出色，盈利能力极高。在过去 12 个月中，其净收入总计近 1000 亿美元，利润率达到令人印象深刻的 24%，而在此期间的总收入为 4090 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But if the company isn't growing at a fast pace and its growth prospects don't change drastically, it calls into question whether the premium the stock trades at is warranted. Currently, Apple stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 37. And yet, the company's sales over the past three quarters have totaled $313.7 billion, representing a modest year-over-year increase of just under 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果公司增长速度不快，且其增长前景没有发生重大变化，那么就会质疑该股票的溢价是否合理。目前，苹果股票的市盈率（P/E）为 37。然而，该公司在过去三个季度的销售总额为 3137 亿美元，同比增长仅略低于 6%。</p>
</div><p>At that kind of growth rate, I believe the stock should be trading at a P/E multiple of far less than 30. While AI is the big wildcard for the business, which could trigger upgrade cycles in its iPhones and unlock more growth, it's still a big question mark moving forward. If Apple can prove its doubters wrong and be a winner in AI, then the stock may be due for a rally, but there's little reason to expect that will be the case at this stage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这样的增长率下，我认为该股票的市盈率应该远低于 30。虽然人工智能是该业务的一个重要变量，可能会触发 iPhone 的升级周期并解锁更多增长，但未来仍然是一个大问号。如果苹果能够证明其怀疑者是错误的，并在人工智能领域取得成功，那么该股票可能会迎来反弹，但在这个阶段几乎没有理由期待这种情况。</p>
</div><h2>Apple has a terrific business, but investors shouldn't overlook its high valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的业务非常出色，但投资者不应忽视其高估值</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying Apple's dominance in the smartphone market. But given all the question marks around its future and how competitive its iPhones will be with other AI-powered phones, the stock should arguably be trading at a discount rather than a hefty premium, as it is now. It may not be easy to switch from an iPhone to another phone brand, but over time, consumers may get frustrated with lackluster innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否认的是，苹果在智能手机市场的主导地位。但考虑到其未来的诸多不确定性，以及其 iPhone 与其他人工智能手机的竞争力，股票理应以折扣而非目前的高溢价进行交易。虽然从 iPhone 切换到其他品牌的手机可能并不容易，但随着时间的推移，消费者可能会因缺乏创新而感到沮丧。</p>
</div><p>Apple hasn't been a leading innovating company for many years, and the AI boom is simply highlighting what kind of a laggard it is in tech these days. And if it can't quickly convince investors that it's on the right track, the stock may continue to underperform its peers, and the bigger danger is that it may be due for a sizable correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，苹果并不是一家领先的创新公司，而人工智能的兴起只是突显了它在当今科技领域的落后。如果它无法迅速说服投资者相信自己走在正确的轨道上，该股票可能会继续表现不佳，而更大的风险是它可能面临大幅修正。</p>
</div><p>The stock's high valuation is a problem as it leaves minimal-to-no margin of safety if you decide to invest in Apple today. And that's why, at least for the time being, I wouldn't buy the stock and instead take a wait-and-see approach with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的高估值是一个问题，因为如果你今天决定投资苹果，几乎没有安全边际。因此，至少在目前，我不会购买该股票，而是采取观望的态度。</p>
</div>

This "Magnificent Seven" Stock Has Badly Underperformed Its Peers. Could It Be an Underrated Buy?

- 苹果公司在 “七大巨头” 中表现较弱，股价增长缓慢。  
- 尽管其利润可观，但缺乏创新和 AI 发展滞后影响投资者信心。  
- 当前高估值使得投资风险增加，建议观望。  

这只 “七大杰出” 股票的表现远不如其同行。它可能是一个被低估的买入机会吗？