<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN -15.15%），这个在线买卖房屋的平台，本周再次经历了剧烈的股价波动。在最近几个月强劲上涨后，该股在周一下跌，并在盘后继续下滑。更广泛的风险规避情绪，包括加密货币的急剧抛售和杠杆押注的解除，对该股造成了压力。最近的回调给投资者提出了一个重要问题：这是一个买入机会，还是需要保持谨慎的信号？</p>
<p>Opendoor 的商业模式很简单：利用数据进行即时现金报价，翻新房屋，然后转售以赚取差价和相关费用。虽然这种方法在稳定的房地产市场中可以奏效，但当前环境依然缓慢且对利率敏感。随着股价经历显著波动，关键问题是 Opendoor 能否在时间上持续创造价值，而不仅仅是把握反弹时机。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ2MzEvb3Blbi1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ2MzEvb3Blbi1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>最近的表现及管理层的看法</h2>
<p>Opendoor 最近的季度更新提供了进展和背景。在第二季度，Opendoor Technologies 的收入为 16 亿美元，同比增长略微上升，并较上一季度显著增长。毛利润为 1.28 亿美元，公司调整后的 EBITDA 为 2300 万美元，同时将净亏损缩减至 2900 万美元。关于 Opendoor 一些最重要的业务指标，公司售出了 4299 套房屋，购买了 1757 套，并将库存减少至 15 亿美元，或 4538 套房屋，相比一年前有所下降。</p>
<p>在公司的第二季度财报中，当时的首席执行官 Carrie Wheeler 指出，尽管房地产市场环境恶化，团队 “实现了自 2022 年以来的首个调整后 EBITDA 盈利季度”，并强调扩展 “以代理为主导的分销平台”，以通过低资本、合作伙伴驱动的产品接触更多卖家。</p>
<p>这些结果有助于解释推动股价上涨的乐观情绪。Opendoor 显示出改善的单位经济、更加紧凑的库存管理，以及在通过合作代理扩展其覆盖范围的同时更高效地运营的能力。</p>
<p>然而，同一报告也突显了持续的挑战。贡献利润率从一年前的 6.3% 下降至 4.4%，房屋收购显著下降，库存中仍包括老旧房屋，这可能在市场条件变化时对差价造成压力。管理层对第三季度的指引预计收入将下降，并且调整后的 EBITDA 将再次为负，反映出较低的交易量和更紧的差价的影响。</p>
<h2>及时的领导层更新及其信号</h2>
<p>投资者还应仔细考虑领导层和激励机制的角度。上周，Opendoor 宣布为新任首席执行官 Kaz Nejatian 提供诱导性股权奖励。该方案包括约 158 万股限制性股票单位（RSUs）的补偿性授予，以及两个分别约 4090 万股的基于业绩的股票单位（PSUs）奖励。</p>
<p>这些奖励仅在满足严格的时间和股价门槛后才能归属，起始的平均 60 天价格为 6.24 美元，并逐步上升至高达 33 美元的目标，具有五年的业绩窗口和在更高价格下的控制权变更保护。这是经典的 “按绩效支付”。如果股价在一段时间内持续大幅上涨，Nejatian 将获得丰厚回报；否则，大部分奖励将无法归属。</p>
<p>对于投资者来说，新首席执行官的股权方案表明董事会专注于通过改善执行来推动上行，转向更多资本轻型收入和更紧凑的运营。同时，雄心勃勃的目标和奖励结构突显了仍需协调的众多因素——如转售差价、收购速度和成功的合作关系——以实现这些价格目标。</p>
<h2>估值、波动性和周一的抛售</h2>
<p>短期市场强化了风险。周一的下滑发生在投机资产动荡之际。<strong>比特币</strong> 和其他主要代币急剧下跌，超过 15 亿美元的杠杆加密货币多头被清算，削弱了市场的风险偏好，而 Opendoor 最近在某些市场中表现得像一个热门股票。股价在盘后进一步下跌，常被引用的消息源显示该股在收盘后进一步下跌。</p>
<p>最近的波动提醒人们，Opendoor 尚未成为一个稳定的复合增长者。尽管回调，该股年初至今的涨幅仍然显著，主要由市场情绪驱动。管理层的指引显示，随着房地产市场持续疲软，本季度收入将下降，调整后的 EBITDA 将再次为负。如果差价缩小或转售时间延长，即使是小的变化也可能对结果产生重大影响。尽管存在这些担忧，截至目前，该公司的市值超过 60 亿美元——这一估值预示着未来几年出色的执行。</p>
<p>新的领导层、扩展的代理主导渠道以及对精简运营的关注，可能会帮助 Opendoor 在未来成为一个更强大、资本需求更低的企业。此外，第二季度的正向调整 EBITDA 表明该模型在某些条件下是可行的。</p>
<p>然而，当前的指引、薄弱的贡献利润率和持续的波动性表明，大多数投资者最好等待更稳定的盈利能力和更清晰的证据，证明资本轻型收入能够扩展。稳定盈利季度的业绩记录（或从此大幅抛售）将提供比试图在由风险规避情绪驱动的急剧（但可能不足的）回调中买入更具吸引力的入场点。</p>

OPEN

<p>Opendoor Technologies 的股票经历了显著的波动，在强劲上涨后急剧下跌。该公司最近的季度更新显示收入为 16 亿美元，净亏损有所减少，但管理层预计下个季度收入将下降，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为负。新任首席执行官 Kaz Nejatian 的股权激励方案强调基于业绩的激励，反映了董事会对改善执行力的关注。尽管市值超过 60 亿美元，但房地产市场的持续挑战和微薄的利润率表明，考虑此次回调作为买入机会的投资者应保持谨慎</p>

<p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN -15.15%), the online home-buying and selling platform, saw its shares swing sharply again this week. After a strong run in recent months, the stock declined on Monday and continued to fall after hours. Broader risk-off sentiment, including a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies and the unwinding of leveraged bets, weighed on the stock. The recent pullback raises an important question for investors: Is this a buying opportunity, or does it signal the need for caution?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>（OPEN -15.15%），这个在线买卖房屋的平台，本周再次经历了剧烈的股价波动。在最近几个月强劲上涨后，该股在周一下跌，并在盘后继续下滑。更广泛的风险规避情绪，包括加密货币的急剧抛售和杠杆押注的解除，对该股造成了压力。最近的回调给投资者提出了一个重要问题：这是一个买入机会，还是需要保持谨慎的信号？</p>
</div><p>Opendoor's business model is straightforward: Use data to make instant cash offers, renovate homes, and resell them to earn a spread and related fees. While this approach can work in stable housing markets, the current environment remains slow and sensitive to interest rates. With the stock experiencing significant volatility, the key question is whether Opendoor can deliver consistent value creation over time, rather than simply timing a rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 的商业模式很简单：利用数据进行即时现金报价，翻新房屋，然后转售以赚取差价和相关费用。虽然这种方法在稳定的房地产市场中可以奏效，但当前环境依然缓慢且对利率敏感。随着股价经历显著波动，关键问题是 Opendoor 能否在时间上持续创造价值，而不仅仅是把握反弹时机。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ2MzEvb3Blbi1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834631%2Fopen-stock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Recent performance and what management said</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最近的表现及管理层的看法</h2>
</div><p>Opendoor's latest quarterly update offered both progress and context. In the second quarter, Opendoor Technologies generated $1.6 billion in revenue, up slightly year over year and up meaningfully from the prior quarter. Gross profit was $128 million, and the company posted $23 million of adjusted EBITDA, while shrinking its net loss to $29 million. Regarding some of Opendoor's most important business metrics, the company sold 4,299 homes, purchased 1,757, and reduced inventory to $1.5 billion, or 4,538 homes, versus a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 最近的季度更新提供了进展和背景。在第二季度，Opendoor Technologies 的收入为 16 亿美元，同比增长略微上升，并较上一季度显著增长。毛利润为 1.28 亿美元，公司调整后的 EBITDA 为 2300 万美元，同时将净亏损缩减至 2900 万美元。关于 Opendoor 一些最重要的业务指标，公司售出了 4299 套房屋，购买了 1757 套，并将库存减少至 15 亿美元，或 4538 套房屋，相比一年前有所下降。</p>
</div><p>In the company's Q2 earnings release, then-CEO Carrie Wheeler noted that the team &#34;achieved our first quarter of Adjusted EBITDA profitability since 2022&#34; despite a deteriorating housing backdrop and emphasized expanding an &#34;agent-led distribution platform&#34; to reach more sellers with lower-capital, partner-driven offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公司的第二季度财报中，当时的首席执行官 Carrie Wheeler 指出，尽管房地产市场环境恶化，团队 “实现了自 2022 年以来的首个调整后 EBITDA 盈利季度”，并强调扩展 “以代理为主导的分销平台”，以通过低资本、合作伙伴驱动的产品接触更多卖家。</p>
</div><p>These results help explain the optimism that has driven the stock higher. Opendoor is showing signs of improved unit economics, tighter inventory management, and the ability to operate more efficiently while expanding its reach through partner agents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些结果有助于解释推动股价上涨的乐观情绪。Opendoor 显示出改善的单位经济、更加紧凑的库存管理，以及在通过合作代理扩展其覆盖范围的同时更高效地运营的能力。</p>
</div><p>However, the same report highlighted ongoing challenges. Contribution margin declined to 4.4% from 6.3% a year ago, home acquisitions fell significantly, and the inventory still includes older homes, which could pressure spreads if market conditions change. Management's guidance for the third quarter calls for lower revenue and a return to negative adjusted EBITDA, reflecting the effect of lower volumes and tighter spreads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，同一报告也突显了持续的挑战。贡献利润率从一年前的 6.3% 下降至 4.4%，房屋收购显著下降，库存中仍包括老旧房屋，这可能在市场条件变化时对差价造成压力。管理层对第三季度的指引预计收入将下降，并且调整后的 EBITDA 将再次为负，反映出较低的交易量和更紧的差价的影响。</p>
</div><h2>A timely leadership update -- and what it signals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>及时的领导层更新及其信号</h2>
</div><p>There's also a leadership and incentives angle that investors should weigh carefully. Last week, Opendoor announced inducement equity grants for newly appointed CEO Kaz Nejatian. The package includes a make-whole grant of about 1.58 million RSUs and two separate performance-based PSU awards of roughly 40.9 million shares each.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还应仔细考虑领导层和激励机制的角度。上周，Opendoor 宣布为新任首席执行官 Kaz Nejatian 提供诱导性股权奖励。该方案包括约 158 万股限制性股票单位（RSUs）的补偿性授予，以及两个分别约 4090 万股的基于业绩的股票单位（PSUs）奖励。</p>
</div><p>These vest only upon meeting stringent time and share-price hurdles starting at an average 60-day price of $6.24 and stair-stepping through targets as high as $33, with five-year performance windows and change-in-control protections structured at higher prices. This is classic &#34;pay for performance.&#34; If the stock sustains dramatically higher prices over time, Nejatian wins big; if not, most of the grant won't vest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些奖励仅在满足严格的时间和股价门槛后才能归属，起始的平均 60 天价格为 6.24 美元，并逐步上升至高达 33 美元的目标，具有五年的业绩窗口和在更高价格下的控制权变更保护。这是经典的 “按绩效支付”。如果股价在一段时间内持续大幅上涨，Nejatian 将获得丰厚回报；否则，大部分奖励将无法归属。</p>
</div><p>For investors, the new CEO's equity package signals the board's focus on driving upside through improved execution, a shift toward more capital-light revenue, and tighter operations. At the same time, the ambitious targets and structure of the awards highlight the many factors that still need to align -- such as resale spreads, acquisition pace, and successful partnerships -- to reach those price goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，新首席执行官的股权方案表明董事会专注于通过改善执行来推动上行，转向更多资本轻型收入和更紧凑的运营。同时，雄心勃勃的目标和奖励结构突显了仍需协调的众多因素——如转售差价、收购速度和成功的合作关系——以实现这些价格目标。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation, volatility, and Monday's sell-off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值、波动性和周一的抛售</h2>
</div><p>The near-term tape reinforces the risk. Monday's slide came as speculative assets wobbled. <strong>Bitcoin</strong> and other major tokens fell sharply, and more than $1.5 billion of leveraged crypto longs were liquidated, draining risk appetite across corners of the market where Opendoor has recently traded like a meme favorite. Shares extended losses after hours, with commonly referenced feeds showing the stock down further from the close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期市场强化了风险。周一的下滑发生在投机资产动荡之际。<strong>比特币</strong> 和其他主要代币急剧下跌，超过 15 亿美元的杠杆加密货币多头被清算，削弱了市场的风险偏好，而 Opendoor 最近在某些市场中表现得像一个热门股票。股价在盘后进一步下跌，常被引用的消息源显示该股在收盘后进一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>This recent volatility serves as a reminder that Opendoor is not yet a steady compounder. Despite the pullback, the stock's year-to-date gains remain significant and largely driven by sentiment. Management's guidance points to lower revenue and a return to negative adjusted EBITDA this quarter as the housing market stays soft. If spreads narrow or resale timelines extend, even small changes could have a meaningful effect on results. Despite these concerns, the company boasts a market capitalization of more than $6 billion as of this writing -- a valuation that prices in outstanding execution for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的波动提醒人们，Opendoor 尚未成为一个稳定的复合增长者。尽管回调，该股年初至今的涨幅仍然显著，主要由市场情绪驱动。管理层的指引显示，随着房地产市场持续疲软，本季度收入将下降，调整后的 EBITDA 将再次为负。如果差价缩小或转售时间延长，即使是小的变化也可能对结果产生重大影响。尽管存在这些担忧，截至目前，该公司的市值超过 60 亿美元——这一估值预示着未来几年出色的执行。</p>
</div><p>New leadership, an expanding agent-led channel, and a focus on leaner operations could help Opendoor become a stronger, less capital-intensive business over time. Additionally, the positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2 shows that the model can work under certain conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的领导层、扩展的代理主导渠道以及对精简运营的关注，可能会帮助 Opendoor 在未来成为一个更强大、资本需求更低的企业。此外，第二季度的正向调整 EBITDA 表明该模型在某些条件下是可行的。</p>
</div><p>However, current guidance, thin contribution margins, and ongoing volatility suggest that most investors would be better served by waiting for more consistent profitability and clearer evidence that capital-light revenue can scale. A track record of steady, profitable quarters (or a massive sell-off from here) would offer a more attractive entry point than trying to buy into a sharp (but arguably insufficient) pullback driven by risk-off sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，当前的指引、薄弱的贡献利润率和持续的波动性表明，大多数投资者最好等待更稳定的盈利能力和更清晰的证据，证明资本轻型收入能够扩展。稳定盈利季度的业绩记录（或从此大幅抛售）将提供比试图在由风险规避情绪驱动的急剧（但可能不足的）回调中买入更具吸引力的入场点。</p>
</div>

Opendoor Technologies 股票的回调是否是一个买入机会？