<p><strong>博通</strong>（AVGO 0.15%）在人工智能（AI）建设中已经成为早期赢家，但市场可能仍未完全定价这一增长股在未来几年可能带来的巨大机会。博通已将自己定位为希望设计自定义 AI 芯片而不是完全依赖图形处理单元（GPU）的公司的首选合作伙伴。</p>
<p>这种布局为公司提供了清晰的增长空间，可能会使股票从这里大幅上涨。</p>
<h2>博通的独特之处</h2>
<p>博通分为两个业务部门：半导体解决方案和基础设施软件。其半导体部门又分为两个主要业务。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5NDUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5NDUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
<p>多年来，博通的主要业务一直是网络。其网络设备——如以太网交换机和光学组件——对于在数据中心快速高效地移动大量数据至关重要。毫不奇怪，随着 AI 的兴起，网络组件变得更加重要，因为 AI 工作负载需要高吞吐量和低延迟。因此，这对公司来说是一个蓬勃发展的业务。</p>
<p>在其半导体解决方案中，博通长期以来一直帮助客户设计特定应用集成电路（ASIC）。与可以在制造后进行编程的传统芯片不同，ASIC 是为特定任务专门构建的，无法重新编程。然而，这种单一目的通常使它们在为其构建的任务上更强大和高效。随着 AI 的兴起，客户最近开始寻求博通的帮助来设计自定义 AI 芯片。</p>
<p>该公司还拥有一个大型基础设施软件业务，通过收购如 CA Technologies、Symantec 和 VMware 等公司建立。VMware 实际上是其中的瑰宝，是虚拟化领域的市场领导者，允许多个虚拟机在单个服务器上运行，以帮助降低客户成本。与此同时，其 VMware Cloud Foundation 平台受益于 AI 建设，因为它允许企业客户在公共云和自己的本地数据中心之间管理 AI 工作负载。这也使他们避免被锁定在单一的云计算提供商中。</p>
<p>虽然博通的许多业务都受益于 AI，但其最大的机会在于自定义 AI 芯片。由于需求超过供应，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -0.82%）的 GPU 价格飙升，超大规模数据中心的拥有者正在寻找更便宜、更高效的方式来大规模运行推理。与训练不同，推理是一个持续的过程，这意味着设计良好的自定义芯片所带来的成本节省可以随着时间的推移而累积。</p>
<p>博通已经通过与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 合作创建其张量处理单元（TPU）证明了其交付能力，这些 TPU 现在帮助支持 Google Cloud。这一成功为新客户打开了大门，如 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和字节跳动，它们正在与博通合作开发自己的芯片。</p>
<p>该公司最近让投资者感到惊讶，透露第四个主要客户，广泛认为是 OpenAI，已为明年下了大订单。这表明博通从设计到生产的速度之快，并突显出对通用 GPU 替代品的巨大需求。OpenAI 还计划在未来几年与 <strong>Oracle</strong> 进行大规模的数据中心建设，因此博通的潜在收益可能巨大。此外，<strong>苹果</strong> 也据报道正在与博通合作开发自己的 AI 芯片，可能成为另一个重要客户。</p>
<h2>股票在 2026 年的潜在走势</h2>
<p>分析师预计，博通在 2025 财年（截至 11 月初）将产生 633 亿美元的收入。公司表示，其前三个 AI 芯片客户在 2027 财年是一个 600 亿到 900 亿美元的可服务市场机会，而 OpenAI（我们认为）已经为 2026 财年下了 100 亿美元的订单，面前的机会巨大。这甚至不包括苹果在 2027 财年也可能成为一个产生收入的 AI 客户的强大可能性。</p>
<p>鉴于这种势头，如果博通在未来两年内将收入翻倍至约 1270 亿美元（2027 财年），也就不足为奇了。自定义芯片可以带来更高的毛利率，因此假设其调整后的毛利率略微上升至 80%，而调整后的运营费用适度上升至约 90 亿美元。应用 20% 的税率，预计其净收入约为 740 亿美元，或每股约 14.80 美元，基于其当前的股份数量（50 亿稀释股份）。</p>
<p>将 2027 财年每股收益 14.80 美元的前瞻市盈率（P/E）倍数设定为 30 到 40，股票到 2026 年底的价值可能在 445 美元到 600 美元之间。虽然这个倍数看起来很高，但考虑到随着自定义 AI 芯片客户的不断增加，博通可能看到的未来增长。</p>
<p>这为股票在未来一年左右提供了强劲的 70% 的上涨潜力。</p>

博通

OpenAI

<p>博通（AVGO）在人工智能领域具备显著增长潜力，专注于定制人工智能芯片，因为对替代 GPU 的需求正在上升。该公司已成为设计人工智能芯片公司的关键合作伙伴，主要客户包括 OpenAI 和潜在的苹果。分析师预测，博通的收入到 2027 财年可能翻倍，达到 1270 亿美元，预计净收入约为 740 亿美元。这一增长可能导致到 2026 年底股价在 445 美元到 600 美元之间，反映出定制芯片解决方案的强大市场机会</p>

<p><strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO 0.15%) has been an early winner of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout so far, but the market may still not be fully pricing in how big this opportunity could become over the next several years for this growth stock. Broadcom has positioned itself as the go-to partner for companies that want to design their own custom AI chips rather than rely entirely on graphics processing units (GPUs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>博通</strong>（AVGO 0.15%）在人工智能（AI）建设中已经成为早期赢家，但市场可能仍未完全定价这一增长股在未来几年可能带来的巨大机会。博通已将自己定位为希望设计自定义 AI 芯片而不是完全依赖图形处理单元（GPU）的公司的首选合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>That setup gives the company a clear runway for growth that could send the stock significantly higher from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种布局为公司提供了清晰的增长空间，可能会使股票从这里大幅上涨。</p>
</div><h2>What makes Broadcom special</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>博通的独特之处</h2>
</div><p>Broadcom operates in two segments: semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software. Its semiconductor unit is divided into two main businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通分为两个业务部门：半导体解决方案和基础设施软件。其半导体部门又分为两个主要业务。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzM5NDUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833945%2Fgettyimages-1492319884.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
</div><p>Broadcom's primary business over the years has been networking. Its networking gear -- such as Ethernet switches and optical components -- is essential for helping move massive amounts of data quickly and efficiently in data centers. Not surprisingly, networking components have become even more important with AI, as AI workloads require high throughput and low latency. So this has been a booming business for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，博通的主要业务一直是网络。其网络设备——如以太网交换机和光学组件——对于在数据中心快速高效地移动大量数据至关重要。毫不奇怪，随着 AI 的兴起，网络组件变得更加重要，因为 AI 工作负载需要高吞吐量和低延迟。因此，这对公司来说是一个蓬勃发展的业务。</p>
</div><p>Also within its semiconductor solutions, Broadcom has long helped customers design application-specific integrated circuits or ASICs. Unlike traditional chips that can be programmed for tasks after they are manufactured, ASICs are purpose-built for specific tasks and cannot be reprogrammed. However, this sole purpose generally makes them more powerful and efficient for the tasks for which they were built. With the rise of AI, customers have recently been turning to Broadcom to help design custom AI chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其半导体解决方案中，博通长期以来一直帮助客户设计特定应用集成电路（ASIC）。与可以在制造后进行编程的传统芯片不同，ASIC 是为特定任务专门构建的，无法重新编程。然而，这种单一目的通常使它们在为其构建的任务上更强大和高效。随着 AI 的兴起，客户最近开始寻求博通的帮助来设计自定义 AI 芯片。</p>
</div><p>The company also owns a large infrastructure software business built through acquisitions like CA Technologies, Symantec, and VMware. VMware is really the crown jewel of the bunch, a market leader in virtualization, which lets multiple virtual machines run on a single server to help lower customer costs. Its VMware Cloud Foundation platform, meanwhile, is benefiting from the AI buildout, as it lets enterprise customers manage AI workloads across public clouds and their own on-premise data centers. This also keeps them from being locked into a single cloud computing provider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司还拥有一个大型基础设施软件业务，通过收购如 CA Technologies、Symantec 和 VMware 等公司建立。VMware 实际上是其中的瑰宝，是虚拟化领域的市场领导者，允许多个虚拟机在单个服务器上运行，以帮助降低客户成本。与此同时，其 VMware Cloud Foundation 平台受益于 AI 建设，因为它允许企业客户在公共云和自己的本地数据中心之间管理 AI 工作负载。这也使他们避免被锁定在单一的云计算提供商中。</p>
</div><p>While many of Broadcom's businesses benefit from AI, its biggest opportunity is in custom AI chips. The cost of <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA -0.82%) GPUs has soared as demand has outstripped supply, and hyperscalers (owners of large data centers) are looking for cheaper and more efficient ways to run inference at scale. Unlike training, which is a one-time event, inference runs constantly, which means the cost savings from a well-designed custom chip can compound over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然博通的许多业务都受益于 AI，但其最大的机会在于自定义 AI 芯片。由于需求超过供应，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -0.82%）的 GPU 价格飙升，超大规模数据中心的拥有者正在寻找更便宜、更高效的方式来大规模运行推理。与训练不同，推理是一个持续的过程，这意味着设计良好的自定义芯片所带来的成本节省可以随着时间的推移而累积。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom already proved it can deliver by working with <strong>Alphabet</strong> to create its tensor processing units (TPUs), which now help power Google Cloud. That success opened the door to new customers like <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and ByteDance, which are developing their own chips with Broadcom's help.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通已经通过与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 合作创建其张量处理单元（TPU）证明了其交付能力，这些 TPU 现在帮助支持 Google Cloud。这一成功为新客户打开了大门，如 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和字节跳动，它们正在与博通合作开发自己的芯片。</p>
</div><p>The company recently surprised investors by revealing that a fourth major customer, widely believed to be OpenAI, has placed a massive order for next year. This shows how quickly Broadcom can go from design to production and highlights just how much demand there is for alternatives to general-purpose GPUs. OpenAI is also planning a massive data center buildout over the next few years with <strong>Oracle</strong>, so the upside could be huge for Broadcom. On top of that, <strong>Apple</strong> is also reportedly working on its own AI chips with Broadcom and could become another significant customer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司最近让投资者感到惊讶，透露第四个主要客户，广泛认为是 OpenAI，已为明年下了大订单。这表明博通从设计到生产的速度之快，并突显出对通用 GPU 替代品的巨大需求。OpenAI 还计划在未来几年与 <strong>Oracle</strong> 进行大规模的数据中心建设，因此博通的潜在收益可能巨大。此外，<strong>苹果</strong> 也据报道正在与博通合作开发自己的 AI 芯片，可能成为另一个重要客户。</p>
</div><h2>Where the stock could be headed in 2026</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票在 2026 年的潜在走势</h2>
</div><p>Analysts project that Broadcom will generate $63.3 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, which ends in early November. With the company saying its first three AI chip customers are a $60 billion to $90 billion serviceable market opportunity in fiscal 2027, and OpenAI (we think) already placing a $10 billion order for fiscal 2026, the opportunity in front of it is huge. That doesn't even include the strong possibility that Apple is also a revenue-producing AI customer by fiscal 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计，博通在 2025 财年（截至 11 月初）将产生 633 亿美元的收入。公司表示，其前三个 AI 芯片客户在 2027 财年是一个 600 亿到 900 亿美元的可服务市场机会，而 OpenAI（我们认为）已经为 2026 财年下了 100 亿美元的订单，面前的机会巨大。这甚至不包括苹果在 2027 财年也可能成为一个产生收入的 AI 客户的强大可能性。</p>
</div><p>Given this momentum, it wouldn't be surprising if Broadcom could double its revenue over the next two years to around $127 billion in fiscal 2027. Custom chips can carry a higher gross margin, so let's say its adjusted gross margin moves up slightly to 80%, while adjusted operating expenses rise moderately to around $9 billion. Apply a 20% tax rate, and it would have a net income of about $74 billion, or about $14.80 per share, based on its current share count (5 billion diluted shares).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这种势头，如果博通在未来两年内将收入翻倍至约 1270 亿美元（2027 财年），也就不足为奇了。自定义芯片可以带来更高的毛利率，因此假设其调整后的毛利率略微上升至 80%，而调整后的运营费用适度上升至约 90 亿美元。应用 20% 的税率，预计其净收入约为 740 亿美元，或每股约 14.80 美元，基于其当前的股份数量（50 亿稀释股份）。</p>
</div><p>Place a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 30 to 40 on $14.80 in fiscal 2027 EPS, and the stock could be worth between $445 and $600 a share by the end of 2026. While that multiple may seem high, it takes into account the future growth Broadcom could see as custom AI chip customers continue to increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将 2027 财年每股收益 14.80 美元的前瞻市盈率（P/E）倍数设定为 30 到 40，股票到 2026 年底的价值可能在 445 美元到 600 美元之间。虽然这个倍数看起来很高，但考虑到随着自定义 AI 芯片客户的不断增加，博通可能看到的未来增长。</p>
</div><p>That's a strong potential 70% upside for the stock over the next year or so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为股票在未来一年左右提供了强劲的 70% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Semiconductor Stock Could Surge 70% by 2026 (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- Broadcom 在人工智能领域的机会巨大，尤其是定制 AI 芯片。  
- 预计 2025 财年收入为 633 亿美元，2027 财年可能翻倍至 1270 亿美元。  
- 分析师预测，2026 年股价可能在 445 至 600 美元之间，潜在上涨 70%。

预测：这只半导体股票到 2026 年可能上涨 70%（提示：不是 Nvidia）