<p>内存芯片制造商 <strong>美光科技</strong>(MU -2.12%) 历来是芯片行业中最具周期性的股票之一。内存市场容易受到供需波动的影响，导致库存水平和价格出现繁荣与萧条的周期。</p>
<p>然而，美光科技在今年的半导体行业中表现出色，这表明投资者可能低估了其动能以及内存领域在人工智能热潮中的表现。美光及其同行制造高带宽内存（HBM）芯片，这些芯片是人工智能的关键组成部分，这也是该股票今年翻倍的主要原因，超越了更知名的行业参与者如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>AMD</strong>。这种强劲的表现和动能在美光的第四季度财报中得到了体现。</p>
<p>在 8 月份提高指引后，该公司超出了其更新后的指引和分析师的预期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ4ODIvcmFtLWRyYW0tc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLW1hbnVmYWN0dXJpbmctMTIwMXg4MDAtNWIyZGY3OS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ4ODIvcmFtLWRyYW0tc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLW1hbnVmYWN0dXJpbmctMTIwMXg4MDAtNWIyZGY3OS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>该季度收入跃升 46%，达到 113.2 亿美元，超出市场共识的 111.6 亿美元。该季度为全年类似增长和 374 亿美元的全年收入画上了句号。</p>
<p>该公司还兑现了 2024 年 3 月做出的承诺，即美光将成为半导体行业中人工智能的最大受益者，并将在刚刚结束的财年中实现创纪录的收入和显著改善的盈利能力。它确实做到了这一点。</p>
<p>除了强劲的收入增长，毛利率从 35.3% 提高至 44.7%，反映出高价值数据中心产品的增长和动态随机存取内存（DRAM）中定价的强劲，包括 HBM。</p>
<p>营业利润率从 19.6% 提高至 32.3%，因为在研发和销售、一般及行政费用上获得了杠杆效应，并报告调整后的每股收益为 3.03 美元，较去年同期的 1.18 美元有所上升，且超出预期的 2.86 美元。</p>
<p>美光的股票在报告发布后基本持平，但这似乎只是反映出在报告发布前，股票在 9 月份上涨了约 40% 后，市场对其高预期的反应。继续阅读，看看该股票为何能够继续上涨的三个原因。</p>
<h2>1. 指引显示业绩将进一步改善</h2>
<p>美光没有给出整个财年的指引，但其对第一季度的展望显示出其动能将持续到当前季度。</p>
<p>它预计收入将在 122 亿美元到 128 亿美元之间，按中值计算比去年同期增长 44%，远超市场共识的 118.3 亿美元。它还预测调整后的毛利率将超过 50%，达到 50.5% 到 52.5%。该公司的毛利率在 2010 年代末的繁荣时期仅有一次超过 50%。</p>
<h2>2. 供应依然紧张</h2>
<p>供需动态对美光的业务是有利的，因此管理层认为未来一年供应将保持紧张，这无疑是个好消息。</p>
<p>到 2024 年 6 月，美光的 HBM 产能已经售罄，管理层继续看到 2026 财年的供应环境紧张，尤其是随着对人工智能产能需求的不断加速。</p>
<p>这种动态应支持美光产品的高价格和强劲的利润率，直到 2026 财年。该公司还表示，预计将在未来几个月内出售 2026 日历年的剩余 HBM 供应。</p>
<h2>3. 美光仍然是一个好价值</h2>
<p>美光的前瞻性估计稳步上升，并且在最新的财报发布后应该会再次上升。它目前的市盈率（P/E）为 20，前瞻市盈率为 12.5。</p>
<p>与其在人工智能领域的同行相比，这些估值处于极低水平，并且它的增长速度仍然超过许多芯片股票同行。事实上，它的收入增长现在与英伟达相媲美。</p>
<p>低估值似乎反映了内存市场之前的繁荣与萧条周期，但人工智能时代可能为该行业引入了新的范式。虽然相同的基本动态仍然存在，但市场规模现在似乎大得多，这意味着美光可能还有更多繁荣增长的年份在前，这对其投资者来说是个好消息。</p>

美光科技

<p>美光科技（MU）公布了强劲的第四季度业绩，收入增长 46%，达到 113.2 亿美元，超出预期。该公司受益于人工智能的蓬勃发展，特别是在高带宽内存（HBM）芯片方面。美光的毛利率提升至 44.7%，调整后的每股收益达到 3.03 美元。展望未来，美光预计第一季度收入将在 122 亿美元至 128 亿美元之间，显示出持续的增长势头。供应依然紧张，支撑高价格，美光的估值相较于同行具有吸引力，暗示着进一步增长的潜力</p>

<p>Memory-chip maker <strong>Micron</strong>(MU -2.12%) has historically been one of the most cyclical stocks in the chip sector. Memory is prone to boom and bust cycles as inventory levels and prices fluctuate according to supply and demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存芯片制造商 <strong>美光科技</strong>(MU -2.12%) 历来是芯片行业中最具周期性的股票之一。内存市场容易受到供需波动的影响，导致库存水平和价格出现繁荣与萧条的周期。</p>
</div><p>However, Micron has been one of the best performers in the semiconductor sector this year, a sign that investors may be underrating its momentum and that of the memory segment in the AI boom. Micron and its peers make high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips that are an essential component of AI, and that's a key reason the stock has doubled this year, outpacing better-known industry players like <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>AMD</strong>. That strength and momentum were on display in Micron's fourth-quarter earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美光科技在今年的半导体行业中表现出色，这表明投资者可能低估了其动能以及内存领域在人工智能热潮中的表现。美光及其同行制造高带宽内存（HBM）芯片，这些芯片是人工智能的关键组成部分，这也是该股票今年翻倍的主要原因，超越了更知名的行业参与者如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>AMD</strong>。这种强劲的表现和动能在美光的第四季度财报中得到了体现。</p>
</div><p>After raising its guidance in August, the company topped both its updated guidance and analyst estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月份提高指引后，该公司超出了其更新后的指引和分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ4ODIvcmFtLWRyYW0tc2VtaWNvbmR1Y3Rvci1jaGlwLW1hbnVmYWN0dXJpbmctMTIwMXg4MDAtNWIyZGY3OS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834882%2Fram-dram-semiconductor-chip-manufacturing-1201x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Revenue in the quarter jumped 46% to $11.32 billion, which topped the consensus at $11.16 billion. The quarter capped off a year with similar growth and full-year revenue of $37.4 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该季度收入跃升 46%，达到 113.2 亿美元，超出市场共识的 111.6 亿美元。该季度为全年类似增长和 374 亿美元的全年收入画上了句号。</p>
</div><p>The company also fulfilled an earlier promise, made in March 2024, that Micron would be one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI in the semiconductor industry, and that it would deliver record revenue and significantly improved profitability for the year it just completed. It did just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司还兑现了 2024 年 3 月做出的承诺，即美光将成为半导体行业中人工智能的最大受益者，并将在刚刚结束的财年中实现创纪录的收入和显著改善的盈利能力。它确实做到了这一点。</p>
</div><p>In addition to the strong revenue growth, gross margin improved from 35.3% to 44.7%, reflecting the ramping up of high-value data center products and pricing strength in dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), which includes HBM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了强劲的收入增长，毛利率从 35.3% 提高至 44.7%，反映出高价值数据中心产品的增长和动态随机存取内存（DRAM）中定价的强劲，包括 HBM。</p>
</div><p>Operating margin improved from 19.6% to 32.3% as it gained leverage on research and development and selling, general, and administrative expenses, and it reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.03, up from $1.18 in the quarter a year ago, and ahead of estimates at $2.86.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>营业利润率从 19.6% 提高至 32.3%，因为在研发和销售、一般及行政费用上获得了杠杆效应，并报告调整后的每股收益为 3.03 美元，较去年同期的 1.18 美元有所上升，且超出预期的 2.86 美元。</p>
</div><p>Micron stock was essentially flat on the report, but that seems to just be a reflection that high expectations were baked in after the stock rose roughly 40% in September coming into the report. Keep reading to see three reasons the stock can continue gaining.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光的股票在报告发布后基本持平，但这似乎只是反映出在报告发布前，股票在 9 月份上涨了约 40% 后，市场对其高预期的反应。继续阅读，看看该股票为何能够继续上涨的三个原因。</p>
</div><h2>1. Guidance shows results will get even better</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 指引显示业绩将进一步改善</h2>
</div><p>Micron did not give guidance for the full fiscal year, but its outlook for the first quarter shows its momentum will continue into the current quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光没有给出整个财年的指引，但其对第一季度的展望显示出其动能将持续到当前季度。</p>
</div><p>It called for $12.2 billion to $12.8 billion in revenue, up 44% from the quarter a year ago at the midpoint and well ahead of the consensus at $11.83 billion. It also forecast gross margin to top 50% at 50.5% to 52.5% on an adjusted basis. The company's gross margin has only been above 50% one other time before, during a boom in the late 2010s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它预计收入将在 122 亿美元到 128 亿美元之间，按中值计算比去年同期增长 44%，远超市场共识的 118.3 亿美元。它还预测调整后的毛利率将超过 50%，达到 50.5% 到 52.5%。该公司的毛利率在 2010 年代末的繁荣时期仅有一次超过 50%。</p>
</div><h2>2. Supply remains tight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 供应依然紧张</h2>
</div><p>Supply/demand dynamics are kind in Micron's business, so it's good news that management sees supply remaining tight in the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供需动态对美光的业务是有利的，因此管理层认为未来一年供应将保持紧张，这无疑是个好消息。</p>
</div><p>Micron was sold out of HBM capacity for this year by June 2024, and management continues to see a tight supply environment in fiscal 2026, especially as demand for AI capacity keeps accelerating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2024 年 6 月，美光的 HBM 产能已经售罄，管理层继续看到 2026 财年的供应环境紧张，尤其是随着对人工智能产能需求的不断加速。</p>
</div><p>That dynamic should support high prices for Micron's products and strong margins into fiscal 2026. The company also said it expects to sell the remainder of its HBM supply for calendar 2026 in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种动态应支持美光产品的高价格和强劲的利润率，直到 2026 财年。该公司还表示，预计将在未来几个月内出售 2026 日历年的剩余 HBM 供应。</p>
</div><h2>3. Micron is still a good value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 美光仍然是一个好价值</h2>
</div><p>Forward estimates on Micron have moved steadily upward, and should do so again following the latest earnings report. It now trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20, and a forward P/E of 12.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光的前瞻性估计稳步上升，并且在最新的财报发布后应该会再次上升。它目前的市盈率（P/E）为 20，前瞻市盈率为 12.5。</p>
</div><p>Compared to its peers in the AI sector, those are rock-bottom valuations, and it's still growing faster than many of its chip stock peers. In fact, its revenue growth is now rivaling that of Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其在人工智能领域的同行相比，这些估值处于极低水平，并且它的增长速度仍然超过许多芯片股票同行。事实上，它的收入增长现在与英伟达相媲美。</p>
</div><p>The low valuation seems to reflect the previous boom-and-bust cycles in memory, but the AI era may have introduced a new paradigm for the sector. While the same underlying dynamics still exist, the size of the market now seems to be significantly larger, meaning Micron could have more years of booming growth ahead of it -- good news for its investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低估值似乎反映了内存市场之前的繁荣与萧条周期，但人工智能时代可能为该行业引入了新的范式。虽然相同的基本动态仍然存在，但市场规模现在似乎大得多，这意味着美光可能还有更多繁荣增长的年份在前，这对其投资者来说是个好消息。</p>
</div>

Micron Just Delivered a Huge Fourth Quarter. 3 Reasons the AI Stock Can Move Higher.

- 美光公司在 AI 热潮中表现优异，第四季度营收增长 46% 至 113.2 亿美元。  
- 预计未来季度营收将达 122 亿至 128 亿美元，毛利率有望超过 50%。  
- 供应紧张将支持高价格和强劲利润，估值相对同行仍具吸引力。  

美光科技刚刚公布了强劲的第四季度业绩。以下是这只 AI 股票可能上涨的三个原因