<p>我不想说我早就预料到了，但在周二的一篇专栏中，我警告过 “甲骨文的股票可能不值得目前 75 倍的市盈率估值。” 现在，罗斯柴尔德和红烧分析师亚历克斯·海斯尔已开始覆盖 <strong>Oracle</strong>（ORCL -3.55%）股票——海斯尔表示这是一个卖出信号。</p>
<p>截至东部时间上午 10 点，甲骨文股票下跌了 4.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwODEvcmVkLWFycm93LXNlZW1zLXRvLXNoYWtlLWFzLWl0LWdvZXMtZG93bi1vdmVyLWEtcmVkLW1hcC1vZi10aGUtd29ybGQtaW4tdGhlLWJhY2tncm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwODEvcmVkLWFycm93LXNlZW1zLXRvLXNoYWtlLWFzLWl0LWdvZXMtZG93bi1vdmVyLWEtcmVkLW1hcC1vZi10aGUtd29ybGQtaW4tdGhlLWJhY2tncm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么这位分析师不看好甲骨文股票</h2>
<p>在《The Fly》上报道的一份报告中，海斯尔认为市场 “严重高估” 了甲骨文从其云计算业务中获得的收入（也就是说，支持 OpenAI 人工智能运营的业务）。甲骨文预测该业务将每年增长到 600 亿美元，超过甲骨文目前所有业务的总收入——仅来自一个部门。</p>
<p>投资者喜欢这个想法，这帮助甲骨文的股票大幅上涨。但海斯尔警告说，这种 “风险极高的蓝天情景……不太可能实现。”</p>
<p>结果：甲骨文股票昨日收盘超过 308 美元，可能在一年内跌至 175 美元。</p>
<h2>甲骨文股票是卖出信号吗？</h2>
<p>海斯尔可能错了吗？我可能错吗？</p>
<p>绝对有可能。甲骨文正在对流行的人工智能（AI）基础设施进行大规模投资。如果这些投资获得回报，标准普尔全球市场情报公司调查的分析师预测，甲骨文到 2030 年每股收益可能超过 13 美元，并产生近 192 亿美元的年度自由现金流——这比甲骨文以往任何时候赚得的都要多。</p>
<p>不过，甲骨文今天的市值为 8400 亿美元。如果预测准确，甲骨文的股票价格是其五年后可能（或可能不会）赚取的利润的 22 倍，且是 2030 年自由现金流的 44 倍。而这就是你今天拥有甲骨文所需支付的价格，远在你知道甲骨文的人工智能投资是否会成功之前。</p>
<p>甲骨文的价格太高了。对我来说，这使得甲骨文股票成为卖出信号。</p>

甲骨文

<p>甲骨文的股票在分析师亚历克斯·海斯尔（Alex Haissl）以 “卖出” 评级开始覆盖后下跌了 4.4%。海斯尔指出，市场对其云计算业务的收入预期过高。他警告称，甲骨文预计年收入增长至 600 亿美元的目标不太可能实现，并建议该股票在一年内可能跌至 175 美元。尽管未来可能因人工智能投资而获得收益，但甲骨文目前 8400 亿美元的估值使其显得过于昂贵，因此建议卖出</p>

<p>I hate to say I told you so, but in a column Tuesday, I warned &#34;Oracle stock is probably not worth its present 75x earnings valuation.&#34; Now Rothschild &amp; Redburn analyst Alex Haissl has initiated coverage of <strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL -3.55%) stock -- and Haissl says it's a sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不想说我早就预料到了，但在周二的一篇专栏中，我警告过 “甲骨文的股票可能不值得目前 75 倍的市盈率估值。” 现在，罗斯柴尔德和红烧分析师亚历克斯·海斯尔已开始覆盖 <strong>Oracle</strong>（ORCL -3.55%）股票——海斯尔表示这是一个卖出信号。</p>
</div><p>Oracle stock is down 4.4% through 10 a.m. ET.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至东部时间上午 10 点，甲骨文股票下跌了 4.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwODEvcmVkLWFycm93LXNlZW1zLXRvLXNoYWtlLWFzLWl0LWdvZXMtZG93bi1vdmVyLWEtcmVkLW1hcC1vZi10aGUtd29ybGQtaW4tdGhlLWJhY2tncm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835081%2Fred-arrow-seems-to-shake-as-it-goes-down-over-a-red-map-of-the-world-in-the-background.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why this analyst doesn't like Oracle stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这位分析师不看好甲骨文股票</h2>
</div><p>In a note covered on The Fly, Haissl argues the market &#34;materially overestimates&#34; how much revenue Oracle will bring in from its cloud computing business (which is to say, its business supporting OpenAI's artificial intelligence operations). Oracle predicts this business will grow to $60 billion annually, or more than all Oracle's revenue from all its various businesses today -- from a single division.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《The Fly》上报道的一份报告中，海斯尔认为市场 “严重高估” 了甲骨文从其云计算业务中获得的收入（也就是说，支持 OpenAI 人工智能运营的业务）。甲骨文预测该业务将每年增长到 600 亿美元，超过甲骨文目前所有业务的总收入——仅来自一个部门。</p>
</div><p>Investors love the idea, and it's helped lift Oracle stock high. But Haissl warns this &#34;risky blue-sky scenario ... is unlikely to materialize.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者喜欢这个想法，这帮助甲骨文的股票大幅上涨。但海斯尔警告说，这种 “风险极高的蓝天情景……不太可能实现。”</p>
</div><p>Result: Oracle stock, which closed above $308 yesterday, could fall as low as $175 within a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果：甲骨文股票昨日收盘超过 308 美元，可能在一年内跌至 175 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Is Oracle stock a sell?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>甲骨文股票是卖出信号吗？</h2>
</div><p>Could Haissl be wrong about that? Could I?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>海斯尔可能错了吗？我可能错吗？</p>
</div><p>Absolutely. Oracle is making massive investments in popular artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Assuming they pay off, analysts polled by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence forecast Oracle could earn more than $13 a share in 2030, and generate nearly $19.2 billion in annual free cash flow -- more money than Oracle has ever earned before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>绝对有可能。甲骨文正在对流行的人工智能（AI）基础设施进行大规模投资。如果这些投资获得回报，标准普尔全球市场情报公司调查的分析师预测，甲骨文到 2030 年每股收益可能超过 13 美元，并产生近 192 亿美元的年度自由现金流——这比甲骨文以往任何时候赚得的都要多。</p>
</div><p>Still, Oracle stock is valued at $840 billion today. Assuming the forecasts are accurate, Oracle stock costs more than 22 times profit it might (or might not) earn five years from now, and costs 44 times 2030 free cash flow. And that's the price you must pay to own Oracle today, long before you know if Oracle's AI bets will pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，甲骨文今天的市值为 8400 亿美元。如果预测准确，甲骨文的股票价格是其五年后可能（或可能不会）赚取的利润的 22 倍，且是 2030 年自由现金流的 44 倍。而这就是你今天拥有甲骨文所需支付的价格，远在你知道甲骨文的人工智能投资是否会成功之前。</p>
</div><p>Oracle's too expensive. For me, that makes Oracle stock a sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文的价格太高了。对我来说，这使得甲骨文股票成为卖出信号。</p>
</div>

为什么 Oracle 股票今天下跌