<p>根据 <strong>Gartner</strong> 的估计，全球在人工智能（AI）上的支出预计将在今年达到 1.5 万亿美元。尽管企业和科技公司已经投入了巨额资金，但预计这一数字在未来还会进一步攀升。Gartner 的分析师预计，到 2026 年，总支出将达到 2 万亿美元。许多分析师认为，为了抓住生成式 AI 带来的巨大机遇和承诺，总支出将在本十年末持续增长。</p>
<p>有一家公司的人工智能计算需求在短短几年内成功建立了一个价值 100 亿美元的庞大业务，并预计在未来几年内将占据相当大的市场份额。事实上，管理层表示，预计这 100 亿美元的年销售额将在五年内增长到 1440 亿美元。而且它有合同作为支撑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ1MTMvZ2V0dHktaW1hZ2VzLWl0LWRhdGEtY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0ZXItZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItYWktYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ1MTMvZ2V0dHktaW1hZ2VzLWl0LWRhdGEtY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0ZXItZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItYWktYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>巨大的机遇在前</h2>
<p>少数公司正在迅速扩建数据中心，并租赁空间和设备，以满足科技公司训练和使用大型语言模型的需求。来自 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等两家领先的 LLM 开发公司的合同每年价值数百亿美元。而最大的云计算平台——由 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN -0.84%）、<strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT -0.64%）和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.53%）（GOOGL -0.56%）拥有——无法跟上日益增长的需求。</p>
<p>随着 AI 公司寻求多样化其计算提供商，<strong>Oracle</strong>（ORCL -5.57%）凭借出色的网络能力和具有竞争力的定价，成为了一个强有力的替代选择。然而，相较于三大市场领导者，其 Oracle Cloud Infrastructure（OCI）的规模仍显不足。这并没有阻止 OpenAI 承诺在 2027 年开始向 Oracle 的云业务投入 3000 亿美元。</p>
<p>因此，Oracle 报告其剩余履约义务的积压大幅增加。截至公司第一季度末，该金额为 4550 亿美元，较第四季度末的 1370 亿美元大幅上升。虽然其中 3000 亿美元与 OpenAI 相关，但 Oracle 还新增了 180 亿美元的合同。</p>
<p>管理层预计将在不久的将来签署更多合同。它表示，OCI 的剩余履约义务可能在本季度末超过 5000 亿美元。</p>
<p>如果管理层成功将 OCI 的收入从 100 亿美元增长到 1440 亿美元，到本十年末，其云业务规模将与 Alphabet 相当，基于当前的增长率。如果它能够实现与三大主要提供商相似的运营利润率（20% 至 37%），将可能对其现有收益产生巨大的提升。</p>
<p>尽管管理层指出，已经有足够的积压支持其收入预期，但在当前投资 Oracle 股票时，考虑到伴随而来的重大风险是非常重要的。</p>
<h2>未来并非保证</h2>
<p>在过去 12 个月中，Oracle 在扩展 OCI 产能方面烧掉了 59 亿美元。过去一年，它承担了 270 亿美元的债务，目前在资产负债表上持有 1110 亿美元的债务。为了满足云计算业务的需求，它将不得不承担更多债务并消耗更多现金来扩展所需的产能。</p>
<p>为了更好地理解情况，Microsoft 承诺在当前季度投入 300 亿美元的资本支出，并可能在全年保持这一速度。Amazon 预计到 2025 年将花费超过 1000 亿美元，主要用于额外的计算能力。Alphabet 将其年度支出目标更新为 850 亿美元，因为其云基础设施的需求持续超过供应。</p>
<p>他们都有显著的积压，但没有一家公司的积压能与 Oracle 现在的规模相提并论。Oracle 计划在今年支出 350 亿美元，OCI 的收入为 180 亿美元。</p>
<p>与此同时，其三大竞争对手由于已经拥有大型、成熟的云业务以及云计算以外的大型业务，正在产生强劲的正自由现金流。Oracle 的传统软件业务产生的现金远不足以跟上对 AI 计算的需求。</p>
<p>但 Oracle 面临的风险不仅仅是融资风险。它还承担了与 OpenAI 的长期合同风险。生成式 AI 的领导者承诺在 2027 年开始在 Oracle 的计算上花费 300 亿美元，并逐步增加。但根据其首席财务官的预期，该公司今年的收入仅为 130 亿美元。它还承诺与 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 花费 100 亿美元，更不用说与 Microsoft 和 Alphabet 的现有云计算交易。</p>
<p>如果 OpenAI 的交易完全实现，其盈利能力也不明确。Oracle 必须提供相对于其更大竞争对手非常有吸引力的定价，以吸引如此巨大的承诺。这可能导致其利润率相对于 Amazon、Microsoft 和 Alphabet 显著下降。</p>
<p>尽管如此，Oracle 的股票价格现在已经飙升，基于对 2026 财年的预期，其前瞻市盈率达到了 45。这远高于其更大云竞争对手，使得该股票成为一个风险更高的投资。如果 Oracle 能够执行，建立所需的产能，并且 OpenAI 能够履行其承诺，那么在未来五年内它可能会成为一个巨大的赢家。但目前，其他三家云计算提供商的股票看起来更具价值，风险也小得多。</p>

甲骨文

<p>全球对人工智能的支出预计在今年将达到 1.5 万亿美元，预计到 2026 年将达到 2 万亿美元。一家人工智能公司预计将在五年内将其 100 亿美元的业务增长到 1440 亿美元，得益于包括与 OpenAI 签署的 3000 亿美元合同在内的重要合同。然而，甲骨文在扩展其云基础设施以满足需求时面临风险，包括高额债务和现金消耗。微软和亚马逊等竞争对手也在大力投资，这引发了人们对甲骨文在长期内有效竞争能力的担忧</p>

<p>Global spending on artificial intelligence (AI) is set to reach $1.5 trillion this year, according to estimates from <strong>Gartner</strong>. Even with the huge amount businesses and tech companies are already spending, that number is forecast to climb even further well into the future. The analysts at Gartner expect total spending to hit $2 trillion in 2026. Many analysts see total spending climbing through the end of the decade in order to take advantage of the massive opportunity and promises of generative AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>Gartner</strong> 的估计，全球在人工智能（AI）上的支出预计将在今年达到 1.5 万亿美元。尽管企业和科技公司已经投入了巨额资金，但预计这一数字在未来还会进一步攀升。Gartner 的分析师预计，到 2026 年，总支出将达到 2 万亿美元。许多分析师认为，为了抓住生成式 AI 带来的巨大机遇和承诺，总支出将在本十年末持续增长。</p>
</div><p>One company managed to build a massive $10 billion business out of demand for artificial intelligence compute in just a few years, and it expects to capture a significant amount of market share over the next few years. In fact, management said it expects that $10 billion in annual sales to grow to $144 billion in sales within five years. And it has the contracts to back it up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一家公司的人工智能计算需求在短短几年内成功建立了一个价值 100 亿美元的庞大业务，并预计在未来几年内将占据相当大的市场份额。事实上，管理层表示，预计这 100 亿美元的年销售额将在五年内增长到 1440 亿美元。而且它有合同作为支撑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ1MTMvZ2V0dHktaW1hZ2VzLWl0LWRhdGEtY2xvdWQtY29tcHV0ZXItZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItYWktYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834513%2Fgetty-images-it-data-cloud-computer-data-center-ai-artificial-intelligence.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The massive opportunity ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的机遇在前</h2>
</div><p>A handful of companies are rapidly building out data centers and leasing space and equipment in order to meet the demand of tech companies training and using large language models. Some contracts from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, two leading LLM developers, are worth tens of billions of dollars per year. And the biggest cloud computing platforms -- owned by <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.84%), <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.64%), and <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -0.53%)(GOOGL -0.56%) -- are unable to keep up with the growing demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>少数公司正在迅速扩建数据中心，并租赁空间和设备，以满足科技公司训练和使用大型语言模型的需求。来自 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等两家领先的 LLM 开发公司的合同每年价值数百亿美元。而最大的云计算平台——由 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN -0.84%）、<strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT -0.64%）和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.53%）（GOOGL -0.56%）拥有——无法跟上日益增长的需求。</p>
</div><p>As AI companies look to diversify their compute providers, <strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL -5.57%) has emerged as a strong alternative with excellent networking capabilities and competitive pricing. However, its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is lacking in scale relative to the three market leaders. That didn't stop OpenAI from committing $300 billion to Oracle's cloud business over five years starting in 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 AI 公司寻求多样化其计算提供商，<strong>Oracle</strong>（ORCL -5.57%）凭借出色的网络能力和具有竞争力的定价，成为了一个强有力的替代选择。然而，相较于三大市场领导者，其 Oracle Cloud Infrastructure（OCI）的规模仍显不足。这并没有阻止 OpenAI 承诺在 2027 年开始向 Oracle 的云业务投入 3000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Oracle reported a huge increase in its backlog of remaining performance obligations. The amount stood at $455 billion as of the end of the company's first quarter, up from $137 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. While $300 billion of that is tied to OpenAI, Oracle added another $18 billion in contracts on top of that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Oracle 报告其剩余履约义务的积压大幅增加。截至公司第一季度末，该金额为 4550 亿美元，较第四季度末的 1370 亿美元大幅上升。虽然其中 3000 亿美元与 OpenAI 相关，但 Oracle 还新增了 180 亿美元的合同。</p>
</div><p>And management expects to sign additional contracts in the near future. It said OCI's remaining performance obligations will likely exceed $500 billion by the end of the current quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层预计将在不久的将来签署更多合同。它表示，OCI 的剩余履约义务可能在本季度末超过 5000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>If management succeeds in growing OCI from $10 billion to $144 billion over the next five years, it'll end the decade with a cloud business similar in size to Alphabet's, based on current growth rates. If it can manage to earn similar operating margins as the three big providers today (20% to 37%), it could produce a huge boost to its existing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果管理层成功将 OCI 的收入从 100 亿美元增长到 1440 亿美元，到本十年末，其云业务规模将与 Alphabet 相当，基于当前的增长率。如果它能够实现与三大主要提供商相似的运营利润率（20% 至 37%），将可能对其现有收益产生巨大的提升。</p>
</div><p>While management notes it already has the backlog to support its revenue outlook, it's important to consider the significant risks that come with investing in Oracle stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管管理层指出，已经有足够的积压支持其收入预期，但在当前投资 Oracle 股票时，考虑到伴随而来的重大风险是非常重要的。</p>
</div><h2>The future is not guaranteed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来并非保证</h2>
</div><p>Oracle burned $5.9 billion in cash over the past 12 months as it expanded OCI capacity. It took on $27 billion worth of debt over the past year, and it now holds $111 billion of debt on its balance sheet. It'll have to take on more debt and burn more cash to build out the capacity needed to meet demand for its cloud computing business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 12 个月中，Oracle 在扩展 OCI 产能方面烧掉了 59 亿美元。过去一年，它承担了 270 亿美元的债务，目前在资产负债表上持有 1110 亿美元的债务。为了满足云计算业务的需求，它将不得不承担更多债务并消耗更多现金来扩展所需的产能。</p>
</div><p>To put things in perspective, Microsoft is committing to $30 billion in capital expenditures for the current quarter, and it'll likely maintain that pace throughout the year. Amazon expects to spend over $100 billion in 2025, mostly on additional compute capacity. Alphabet updated its target spend to $85 billion for the year, as demand for its cloud infrastructure continues to outstrip supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了更好地理解情况，Microsoft 承诺在当前季度投入 300 亿美元的资本支出，并可能在全年保持这一速度。Amazon 预计到 2025 年将花费超过 1000 亿美元，主要用于额外的计算能力。Alphabet 将其年度支出目标更新为 850 亿美元，因为其云基础设施的需求持续超过供应。</p>
</div><p>They all have significant backlogs, but none is as big as Oracle's is now. Oracle plans to spend $35 billion this year, with OCI revenue of $18 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们都有显著的积压，但没有一家公司的积压能与 Oracle 现在的规模相提并论。Oracle 计划在今年支出 350 亿美元，OCI 的收入为 180 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, its three biggest competitors are producing strong positive free cash flow thanks to the fact that they already have large, established cloud businesses and massive businesses outside of cloud computing. Oracle's legacy software business doesn't generate nearly enough cash to keep up with the demand for AI compute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，其三大竞争对手由于已经拥有大型、成熟的云业务以及云计算以外的大型业务，正在产生强劲的正自由现金流。Oracle 的传统软件业务产生的现金远不足以跟上对 AI 计算的需求。</p>
</div><p>But it's not just the financing risk Oracle faces. It also takes on the risk of a long-term contract with OpenAI. The generative AI leader has committed to spending $30 billion on Oracle's compute starting in 2027 and ramping up from there. But the company itself is only bringing in $13 billion in revenue this year, according to its CFO's outlook. It's also committed to spending $10 billion with <strong>Broadcom</strong>, not to mention its existing cloud computing deals with Microsoft and Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Oracle 面临的风险不仅仅是融资风险。它还承担了与 OpenAI 的长期合同风险。生成式 AI 的领导者承诺在 2027 年开始在 Oracle 的计算上花费 300 亿美元，并逐步增加。但根据其首席财务官的预期，该公司今年的收入仅为 130 亿美元。它还承诺与 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 花费 100 亿美元，更不用说与 Microsoft 和 Alphabet 的现有云计算交易。</p>
</div><p>It's also unclear how profitable the OpenAI deal will be if it comes to full fruition. Oracle must have offered very attractive pricing relative to its larger competitors to attract such a big commitment. That could result in a significantly worse margin profile relative to Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 OpenAI 的交易完全实现，其盈利能力也不明确。Oracle 必须提供相对于其更大竞争对手非常有吸引力的定价，以吸引如此巨大的承诺。这可能导致其利润率相对于 Amazon、Microsoft 和 Alphabet 显著下降。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, shares of Oracle have now skyrocketed in price, reaching a forward PE ratio of 45 based on estimates for fiscal 2026. That's far higher than its larger cloud competitors, making the stock a much riskier investment. If Oracle can execute, build the capacity it needs, and OpenAI holds up its end of the deal, it could be a huge winner over the next five years. But the other three cloud computing providers' stocks look like much better values with much less risk right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，Oracle 的股票价格现在已经飙升，基于对 2026 财年的预期，其前瞻市盈率达到了 45。这远高于其更大云竞争对手，使得该股票成为一个风险更高的投资。如果 Oracle 能够执行，建立所需的产能，并且 OpenAI 能够履行其承诺，那么在未来五年内它可能会成为一个巨大的赢家。但目前，其他三家云计算提供商的股票看起来更具价值，风险也小得多。</p>
</div>

这家人工智能（AI）巨头可能在 5 年内将其 100 亿美元的业务增长至 14 倍