<p>虽然多样化通常被视为一种黄金策略，但在某些情况下，它也可能成为一种阻力。以 <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) 为明显例子。作为一家科技巨头，亚马逊显然是推动一切数字化的参与者。然而，AMZN 股票今年仅上涨了约百分之半。你可以将其归咎于零售环境的严峻。不过，这只股票可能对激进的投机者来说具有吸引力。</p>
<p>从表面上看，AMZN 股票的基本面似乎并不利好。本周早些时候，<strong>Oxford Economics</strong> 的首席分析师 John Canavan 表示，尽管他对美国经济持谨慎乐观态度，但市场可能对美联储的鸽派立场过于乐观。根据 Canavan 的说法，基准利率今年可能只会再降一次，而不是两次。</p>
<p>另一方面，劳工统计局对就业数据进行了负面修正，暗示消费者基础疲软。进一步支持这一论点的是 <strong>Costco Wholesale Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: COST) 最新的财报。尽管这家零售商在收入和利润方面超出了预期，但同店销售却是一个主要问题。尽管在剔除与油价和外汇波动相关的因素后，增长率为 6.4%，但这一数字标志着连续两个季度的放缓。</p>
<p>尽管数据不佳，但仍有一些关键积极因素值得考虑，这可能会推动 AMZN 股票上涨。首先，关于 Costco 的收益，电子商务销售同比增长了 13.5%。这一增长率表明，在线交易对现代消费者来说是一个关键途径——这一点显然对亚马逊有利。</p>
<p>其次，美国经济分析局的最新数据显示，个人消费支出价格指数——美联储的主要通胀指标——在 8 月份同比上涨了 2.7%。这一数字仍然较高，引发了对未来货币政策的担忧。同时，这一数字也符合经济学家的预期，这可以被视为一个积极信号。</p>
<h2>利用风险建模提取 AMZN 股票的机会交易</h2>
<p>在多头交易 AMZN 股票的一个关键优势是其基础业务是经济的支柱。如今，人们无法离开其众多服务，从电子商务到云计算甚至是杂货。因此，像基准标准普尔 500 指数一样，AMZN 享有向上的偏向。</p>
<p>然而，这种向上的趋势源于所有价格行为的综合表现。我的理论是，某些情绪状态会创造出超出（或低于）正常预期的回报特征。此外，状态的转变可能通过定量序列提前发出信号。</p>
<p>例如，AMZN 股票正在呈现一种异常的序列，至今没有其他人（据我所知）在讨论。在过去的 10 周中，有六周上涨（定义为从周一开盘到周五收盘的回报）和四周下跌，整体呈下降趋势。通常，你会期望一个以积累为主的序列是看涨的，但在这种情况下，AMZN 的走势却偏向看跌。</p>
<p>自 2019 年 1 月以来，这种罕见的序列仅发生过九次，因此很难从中表达出统计信心。尽管如此，有趣的是，在七个案例中，AMZN 股票在接下来的五周内相对于锚定价格（起始点）上涨。</p>
<p>此外，与 6-4-D 序列相关的结果的中位数价格显著高于所有结果的中位数价格。基本上，AMZN 股票可能会高于华尔街的预期，从而使垂直期权价差可能被低估。</p>
<p>这种寻找错误定价机会的方法与风险管理非常相似，特别是保险。但我们不是试图找出飓风发生的概率以及可能造成的损失，而是试图确定相对于我们的锚定价格的概率的可能性——然后确定潜在的幅度（回报）。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，这并不是一种万无一失的方法。在许多方面，预测飓风更容易，因为那是科学。股市呢？由于外部因素可能会打乱这一范式，波动可能是纯粹的疯狂。然而，结合马尔可夫原则的风险管理协议提供了一个实证基础，用于投机。</p>
<h2>计算激进的看涨价差</h2>
<p>在接下来的五周内，与 6-4-D 序列相关的结果的中位数价格预计将略高于 230 美元。这是第 50 百分位数，意味着数据集中一半的结果将高于 230 美元，一半将低于 230 美元。令人感兴趣的是，市场做市商并不认为这个价格点是一个特别合理的目标——但实证证据却表明情况并非如此。</p>
<p>在这种投机框架下，225/230 看涨价差（到期日为 10 月 31 日）似乎是最具吸引力的交易。这笔交易涉及购买 225 美元的看涨期权，同时出售 230 美元的看涨期权，所需的净支出为 200 美元（最大损失）。</p>
<p>如果 AMZN 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价格（230 美元），最大利润将为 300 美元，回报率为 150%。盈亏平衡点为 227 美元，较撰写时的价格高出 3%。</p>
<p>再次强调，6-4-D 序列的样本量非常小，因此不可能对这笔交易有绝对的信心。尽管如此，这种反直觉的量化信号的异常性质使得 AMZN 股票值得考虑。</p>
<p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文所提供信息的准确性或可靠性不承担任何责任。本内容仅供参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：快速反应的交易者如何从美国航空的 “死猫反弹” 中潜在获利</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>本文讨论了在经济不确定性中亚马逊的看涨期权可能存在的定价错误。尽管零售环境面临挑战，亚马逊的电子商务增长和近期积极的通胀数据可能对其股票有利。一种独特的交易序列表明，AMZN 股票可能超出预期表现，使得垂直期权价差可能被低估。作者建议以 225/230 的看涨期权价差作为一个有吸引力的投机交易，预计在接下来的五周内，价格中位数将超过 230 美元，尽管市场持怀疑态度</p>

<p>While diversification is often considered a golden strategy, it can also be a headwind under certain circumstances. Just take a look at <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) as a clear example. As a technology juggernaut, Amazon is clearly a player in the push for the digitalization of everything. However, AMZN stock is only up around half-a-percent this year. You can blame the tough environment in retail. Still, the security may offer a compelling look for aggressive speculators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然多样化通常被视为一种黄金策略，但在某些情况下，它也可能成为一种阻力。以 <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) 为明显例子。作为一家科技巨头，亚马逊显然是推动一切数字化的参与者。然而，AMZN 股票今年仅上涨了约百分之半。你可以将其归咎于零售环境的严峻。不过，这只股票可能对激进的投机者来说具有吸引力。</p>
</div><p>On surface level, the fundamentals don't appear conducive for AMZN stock. Earlier in the week, <strong>Oxford Economics</strong> lead analyst John Canavan stated that while he's cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economy, the market could be excessively ambitious regarding the dovishness of the Federal Reserve. Per Canavan, the benchmark interest rate might be cut only one more time this year, not two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，AMZN 股票的基本面似乎并不利好。本周早些时候，<strong>Oxford Economics</strong> 的首席分析师 John Canavan 表示，尽管他对美国经济持谨慎乐观态度，但市场可能对美联储的鸽派立场过于乐观。根据 Canavan 的说法，基准利率今年可能只会再降一次，而不是两次。</p>
</div><p>On another note, the Bureau of Labor Statistics negatively revised jobs data, suggesting a weakened consumer base. Adding to this narrative is the latest earnings print by <strong>Costco Wholesale Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: COST). While the retailer beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, same-store sales represented a major concern. Despite the 6.4% growth rate excluding fluctuations tied to gas prices and foreign exchange rates, this figure marked two quarters of deceleration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，劳工统计局对就业数据进行了负面修正，暗示消费者基础疲软。进一步支持这一论点的是 <strong>Costco Wholesale Corp</strong> (NASDAQ: COST) 最新的财报。尽管这家零售商在收入和利润方面超出了预期，但同店销售却是一个主要问题。尽管在剔除与油价和外汇波动相关的因素后，增长率为 6.4%，但这一数字标志着连续两个季度的放缓。</p>
</div><p>Still, amid the rough data, there are key positives to consider that could potentially boost AMZN stock. First, regarding Costco's earnings, e-commerce sales increased by 13.5% against the year-ago quarter's result. This growth rate suggests that online transactions represent a critical pathway for the modern consumer — an element that obviously favors Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管数据不佳，但仍有一些关键积极因素值得考虑，这可能会推动 AMZN 股票上涨。首先，关于 Costco 的收益，电子商务销售同比增长了 13.5%。这一增长率表明，在线交易对现代消费者来说是一个关键途径——这一点显然对亚马逊有利。</p>
</div><p>Second, the latest data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed's go-to inflation metric — rose 2.7% year-over-year in August. That remains an elevated figure, which has caused concerns about forward monetary policy. At the same time, the figure was also in line with economists' expectations, which could be viewed as a positive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，美国经济分析局的最新数据显示，个人消费支出价格指数——美联储的主要通胀指标——在 8 月份同比上涨了 2.7%。这一数字仍然较高，引发了对未来货币政策的担忧。同时，这一数字也符合经济学家的预期，这可以被视为一个积极信号。</p>
</div><h2>Using Risk Modeling To Extract An Opportunistic Trade In AMZN Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利用风险建模提取 AMZN 股票的机会交易</h2>
</div><p>One of the key advantages of trading AMZN stock on the long side is that the underlying business is an economic stalwart. People nowadays can't live without its many services, from e-commerce to cloud computing to even groceries. Subsequently, like the benchmark S&amp;P 500, AMZN enjoys an upward bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在多头交易 AMZN 股票的一个关键优势是其基础业务是经济的支柱。如今，人们无法离开其众多服务，从电子商务到云计算甚至是杂货。因此，像基准标准普尔 500 指数一样，AMZN 享有向上的偏向。</p>
</div><p>However, this northbound tendency stems from the aggregate behavior of all price action. My theory, though, is that certain sentiment regimes create return profiles that push beyond (or below) normal expectations. What's more, the shift in regime may be signaled ahead of time through quantitative sequences.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种向上的趋势源于所有价格行为的综合表现。我的理论是，某些情绪状态会创造出超出（或低于）正常预期的回报特征。此外，状态的转变可能通过定量序列提前发出信号。</p>
</div><p>For instance, AMZN stock is printing an unusual sequence that no one else (to my knowledge) is talking about. In the trailing 10 weeks, there have been six up weeks (defined as the return from Monday's open to Friday's close) and four down weeks, with an overall downward trajectory. Ordinarily, you would expect an accumulation-heavy sequence to be bullish but in this case, AMZN is tilted bearishly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，AMZN 股票正在呈现一种异常的序列，至今没有其他人（据我所知）在讨论。在过去的 10 周中，有六周上涨（定义为从周一开盘到周五收盘的回报）和四周下跌，整体呈下降趋势。通常，你会期望一个以积累为主的序列是看涨的，但在这种情况下，AMZN 的走势却偏向看跌。</p>
</div><p>Since January 2019, this rare sequence has only occurred nine times so it's difficult to express statistical confidence from it. Still, what's interesting is that in seven cases, AMZN stock has moved up relative to the anchor price (starting point) over the next five weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2019 年 1 月以来，这种罕见的序列仅发生过九次，因此很难从中表达出统计信心。尽管如此，有趣的是，在七个案例中，AMZN 股票在接下来的五周内相对于锚定价格（起始点）上涨。</p>
</div><p>Further, the median price of outcomes associated with the 6-4-D sequence comes out significantly higher than the median price of all outcomes. Essentially, AMZN stock could move higher than what Wall Street is anticipating, thus making vertical options spreads potentially underpriced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，与 6-4-D 序列相关的结果的中位数价格显著高于所有结果的中位数价格。基本上，AMZN 股票可能会高于华尔街的预期，从而使垂直期权价差可能被低估。</p>
</div><p>This methodology of finding mispriced opportunities is very similar to risk management, specifically insurance. But rather than attempting to find the probability of a hurricane materializing and how much damage it could potentially cost, we're trying to figure out the likelihood of probability relative to our anchor price — and then determining the potential magnitude (reward).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种寻找错误定价机会的方法与风险管理非常相似，特别是保险。但我们不是试图找出飓风发生的概率以及可能造成的损失，而是试图确定相对于我们的锚定价格的概率的可能性——然后确定潜在的幅度（回报）。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, it's hardly a foolproof approach. In many ways, it's easier to predict hurricanes because that's science. The stock market? Because of the potential for exogenous factors to disrupt the paradigm, the fluctuations can be pure madness. Nevertheless, using risk-management protocols integrated with Markovian principles offers an empirical basis for speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，这并不是一种万无一失的方法。在许多方面，预测飓风更容易，因为那是科学。股市呢？由于外部因素可能会打乱这一范式，波动可能是纯粹的疯狂。然而，结合马尔可夫原则的风险管理协议提供了一个实证基础，用于投机。</p>
</div><h2>Calculating An Aggressive Bull Call Spread</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>计算激进的看涨价差</h2>
</div><p>Over the next five weeks, the median price of outcomes associated with the 6-4-D sequence is projected to land at a bit over $230. This is the 50th percentile, meaning that half of outcomes in the dataset would land above $230 and half below. Enticingly, market makers don't view this price point as a particularly reasonable target — but the empirical evidence suggests otherwise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下来的五周内，与 6-4-D 序列相关的结果的中位数价格预计将略高于 230 美元。这是第 50 百分位数，意味着数据集中一半的结果将高于 230 美元，一半将低于 230 美元。令人感兴趣的是，市场做市商并不认为这个价格点是一个特别合理的目标——但实证证据却表明情况并非如此。</p>
</div><p>Under this speculative framework, the 225/230 bull call spread expiring Oct. 31 appears to be the most enticing trade. This transaction involves buying the $225 call and simultaneously selling the $230 call, for a net debit required of $200 (the most that can be lost).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种投机框架下，225/230 看涨价差（到期日为 10 月 31 日）似乎是最具吸引力的交易。这笔交易涉及购买 225 美元的看涨期权，同时出售 230 美元的看涨期权，所需的净支出为 200 美元（最大损失）。</p>
</div><p>Should AMZN stock rise through the second-leg strike price ($230) at expiration, the maximum profit would be $300, a payout of 150%. Breakeven lands at $227, which is 3% above the time-of-writing price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 AMZN 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价格（230 美元），最大利润将为 300 美元，回报率为 150%。盈亏平衡点为 227 美元，较撰写时的价格高出 3%。</p>
</div><p>Again, the sample size of the 6-4-D sequence is super small so it's impossible to have supreme confidence in the trade. Still, the unusual nature of the counterintuitive quant signal makes AMZN stock worth consideration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次强调，6-4-D 序列的样本量非常小，因此不可能对这笔交易有绝对的信心。尽管如此，这种反直觉的量化信号的异常性质使得 AMZN 股票值得考虑。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文所提供信息的准确性或可靠性不承担任何责任。本内容仅供参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: How Quick-Thinking Traders Can Potentially Extract Upside From American Airlines’ Dead-Cat Bounce</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：快速反应的交易者如何从美国航空的 “死猫反弹” 中潜在获利</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Economic Uncertainties May Have Favorably Mispriced Amazon's Call Options

- 亚马逊股票今年仅上涨约 0.5%，受零售环境影响。  
- 尽管面临挑战，电商销售增长 13.5%，显示出潜力。  
- 225/230 看涨期权价差交易可能带来 150% 的收益。

期权专栏：经济不确定性可能导致亚马逊的看涨期权被有利地错误定价