<p>半导体（芯片）就像科技世界中的无名英雄。你看不见它们，但它们是几乎每个我们日常接触的电子设备背后的大脑。而在半导体制造方面，没有比名副其实的 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM -1.17%）更优秀的公司了。</p>
<p>台积电是全球领先的半导体代工厂，市场份额远超其他竞争对手，约占 70%，而排名第二的 <strong>三星</strong> 市场份额仅约 7%。代工模式意味着台积电并不生产供一般销售的芯片。相反，公司会设计所需的芯片，台积电则利用其制造能力将其实现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzAvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzAvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：台积电。</p>
<p>截至本文撰写时，台积电的市值约为 1.4 万亿美元。要在 2028 年前达到 2 万亿美元的市值，它需要在未来几年内平均实现约 14% 的年回报率。虽然过去的表现不能用来预测未来，但考虑到公司的增长前景以及过去十年 29% 的平均年回报率，我相信这是可能的。</p>
<h2>台积电在人工智能生态系统中的角色</h2>
<p>台积电并不是典型的人工智能（AI）股票，因为它没有生成式 AI 应用或其他人们互动的软件。然而，它在 AI 生态系统中的角色与几乎任何你能想到的股票一样重要。</p>
<p>像 <strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>AMD</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 这样的公司都设计芯片和其他硬件，以支持数据中心，这些数据中心本质上是训练和开发 AI 模型的基础。然而，若没有台积电的先进制造能力，这一切都不可能实现。</p>
<p>在制造先进 AI 芯片方面，台积电几乎是唯一的选择。没有它，可以合理地认为数据中心的效率会降低，这意味着 AI 训练的效率也会降低，这也意味着我们今天接触的许多 AI 应用将会能力不足且难以扩展。</p>
<h2>台积电正在改善其利润和利润率</h2>
<p>台积电长期以来一直是一个令人印象深刻的赚钱机器，但在过去几年中，它的表现有了很大提升。在第二季度，它的收入达到了 300 亿美元，同比增长 44%，比第一季度高出近 18%。如果其第三季度收入在 318 亿美元到 330 亿美元之间，如其预测的那样，这将代表 35% 到 40% 的同比增长。</p>
<p>在英伟达最新的财报中，它提到预计到 2030 年，AI 基础设施的市场规模将达到 3 万亿到 4 万亿美元。由于台积电是 AI 基础设施的关键组成部分，这对公司来说无疑是个好消息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png"/></p>
<p>台积电季度收入数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>收入增长令人印象深刻，但台积电扩大的利润率可能更值得关注。自去年以来，其利润率从 36.8% 扩大到 42.7%，毛利率从 53.2% 扩大到 56.8%，营业利润率从 42.5% 扩大到 49.6%。</p>
<p>这些扩大的利润率证明了台积电凭借其先进的制造能力能够收取溢价，客户也知道如果想要最强大的芯片，台积电几乎是唯一的选择。</p>
<h2>对于长期投资者来说，台积电的估值良好</h2>
<p>台积电目前的市盈率约为未来 12 个月预期收益的 23.5 倍。虽然按大多数标准来看并不 “便宜”，但对于一家像台积电这样占据主导地位并具有增长潜力的公司来说，似乎是个不错的价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png"/></p>
<p>台积电市盈率（未来 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>台积电的先进制造能力不是容易追赶和复制的，因为这需要多年的经验和数十亿美元的研发和设备投资。这赋予了它一种竞争优势，这种优势可能会持续相当长的时间，尤其是因为客户在不冒风险的情况下很难更换制造商。</p>
<p>这种优势让我相信，台积电在未来几年内可以进入 2 万亿美元俱乐部。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）预计将在 2028 年加入 2 万亿美元俱乐部，目前市值为 1.4 万亿美元。TSMC 在半导体制造领域占有 70% 的市场份额，这对人工智能基础设施至关重要。该公司显示出令人印象深刻的收入增长，第二季度同比增长 44%，利润率也在扩大。TSMC 的交易市盈率为 23.5 倍，因其在先进制造方面的竞争优势，被视为有价值的长期投资</p>

<p>Semiconductors (chips) are kind of like the unsung heroes of the tech world. You don't see them, yet they're the brains that power almost every electronic device that we interact with daily. And there's nobody better at manufacturing semiconductors than the appropriately named <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company</strong>(TSM -1.17%), also known as TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>半导体（芯片）就像科技世界中的无名英雄。你看不见它们，但它们是几乎每个我们日常接触的电子设备背后的大脑。而在半导体制造方面，没有比名副其实的 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM -1.17%）更优秀的公司了。</p>
</div><p>TSMC is the world's leading semiconductor foundry by a large margin. It has around a 70% market share, while second-place <strong>Samsung</strong>'s market share is only around 7%. The foundry model means that TSMC doesn't make chips for general sale. Instead, companies will design the chips they need for their products, and TSMC will use its manufacturing ability to bring them to life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电是全球领先的半导体代工厂，市场份额远超其他竞争对手，约占 70%，而排名第二的 <strong>三星</strong> 市场份额仅约 7%。代工模式意味着台积电并不生产供一般销售的芯片。相反，公司会设计所需的芯片，台积电则利用其制造能力将其实现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzMwMzAvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F833030%2Ftaiwan-semiconductor-tsmc-building-with-tsmc-logo-in-front_tsmc.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：台积电。</p>
</div><p>At the time of this writing, TSMC's market cap is around $1.4 trillion. To hit the $2 trillion mark by 2028, it would need to average around 14% annual returns over the next few years. You should never use past performances to predict future ones, but given the company's growth prospects and its 29% average annual returns over the past decade, I'm confident it can happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至本文撰写时，台积电的市值约为 1.4 万亿美元。要在 2028 年前达到 2 万亿美元的市值，它需要在未来几年内平均实现约 14% 的年回报率。虽然过去的表现不能用来预测未来，但考虑到公司的增长前景以及过去十年 29% 的平均年回报率，我相信这是可能的。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's role in the AI ecosystem</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电在人工智能生态系统中的角色</h2>
</div><p>TSMC isn't your typical artificial intelligence (AI) stock in the sense that it has a generative AI app or other software people interact with. Yet its role in the AI ecosystem is as important as almost any stock you can name.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电并不是典型的人工智能（AI）股票，因为它没有生成式 AI 应用或其他人们互动的软件。然而，它在 AI 生态系统中的角色与几乎任何你能想到的股票一样重要。</p>
</div><p>Companies like <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>AMD</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong> all design chips and other hardware that power data centers, which are essentially the backbones of training and developing AI models. Yet most of this wouldn't be possible without TSMC's advanced manufacturing ability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>AMD</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 这样的公司都设计芯片和其他硬件，以支持数据中心，这些数据中心本质上是训练和开发 AI 模型的基础。然而，若没有台积电的先进制造能力，这一切都不可能实现。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to manufacturing advanced AI chips, TSMC is essentially the only go-to. Without it, you could make a valid argument that data centers would be less efficient, which means that AI training would be less efficient, which means many of the AI applications we interact with today would be less capable and scalable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在制造先进 AI 芯片方面，台积电几乎是唯一的选择。没有它，可以合理地认为数据中心的效率会降低，这意味着 AI 训练的效率也会降低，这也意味着我们今天接触的许多 AI 应用将会能力不足且难以扩展。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC is improving its profit and margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电正在改善其利润和利润率</h2>
</div><p>TSMC has long been an impressive moneymaker, but it has stepped it up a lot in the past few years. In the second quarter, it made $30 billion in revenue, which was up 44% year over year and close to 18% higher than the first quarter. If its third-quarter revenue falls between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, as it predicts, that will represent between 35% and 40% year-over-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电长期以来一直是一个令人印象深刻的赚钱机器，但在过去几年中，它的表现有了很大提升。在第二季度，它的收入达到了 300 亿美元，同比增长 44%，比第一季度高出近 18%。如果其第三季度收入在 318 亿美元到 330 亿美元之间，如其预测的那样，这将代表 35% 到 40% 的同比增长。</p>
</div><p>In Nvidia's latest earnings report, it noted that it expects $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure through 2030. With TSMC being a key part of AI infrastructure, this should be music to the company's ears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英伟达最新的财报中，它提到预计到 2030 年，AI 基础设施的市场规模将达到 3 万亿到 4 万亿美元。由于台积电是 AI 基础设施的关键组成部分，这对公司来说无疑是个好消息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b95665eb65d5d8f647c27017a06d738.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电季度收入数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The revenue growth is impressive, but TSMC's expanding margins may be the most noteworthy. Since last year, its profit margin has expanded from 36.8% to 42.7%, gross margin has expanded from 53.2% to 56.8%, and operating margin has expanded from 42.5% to 49.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入增长令人印象深刻，但台积电扩大的利润率可能更值得关注。自去年以来，其利润率从 36.8% 扩大到 42.7%，毛利率从 53.2% 扩大到 56.8%，营业利润率从 42.5% 扩大到 49.6%。</p>
</div><p>These expanding margins are a testament to TSMC's ability to command premium pricing because of its advanced manufacturing ability, and its customers knowing that it's essentially their only choice if they want the most powerful chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些扩大的利润率证明了台积电凭借其先进的制造能力能够收取溢价，客户也知道如果想要最强大的芯片，台积电几乎是唯一的选择。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC is trading at a good value for long-term investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对于长期投资者来说，台积电的估值良好</h2>
</div><p>TSMC is currently trading at around 23.5 times its projected earnings for the next 12 months. It's not &#34;cheap&#34; by most standards, but it also seems like a good value for a company that's as dominant as TSMC and has its growth potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电目前的市盈率约为未来 12 个月预期收益的 23.5 倍。虽然按大多数标准来看并不 “便宜”，但对于一家像台积电这样占据主导地位并具有增长潜力的公司来说，似乎是个不错的价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/cb806a61d7d49c9a0aa4428f768aa42b.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电市盈率（未来 1 年）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>TSMC's advanced manufacturing ability isn't something that can be easily caught up to and replicated because it takes many years of experience and billions invested into research and equipment. That gives it a competitive advantage that's likely to last for quite a while, especially because it's not easy for its customers to switch manufacturers without risking performance or reliability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的先进制造能力不是容易追赶和复制的，因为这需要多年的经验和数十亿美元的研发和设备投资。这赋予了它一种竞争优势，这种优势可能会持续相当长的时间，尤其是因为客户在不冒风险的情况下很难更换制造商。</p>
</div><p>That edge gives me confidence that TSMC can enter the $2 trillion club within the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种优势让我相信，台积电在未来几年内可以进入 2 万亿美元俱乐部。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock Will Join Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon in the $2 Trillion Club by 2028. (Hint: Not Broadcom)

- TSMC 是全球领先的半导体代工厂，市场份额约 70%。  
- 其 2023 年第二季度营收达 300 亿美元，同比增长 44%。  
- TSMC 的利润率从 36.8% 提升至 42.7%，显示出其强大的定价能力。

预测：这家人工智能（AI）半导体公司将在 2028 年跻身英伟达、微软、苹果、Alphabet 和亚马逊的 2 万亿美元市值俱乐部。（提示：不是博通）