<p>以太坊目前正试图在最近的抛售后稳定下来，价格跌破了关键水平。尽管在更高时间框架上看涨趋势结构尚未完全破裂，但价格走势和链上指标都显示出混合信号，交易者应密切关注。技术分析</p>
<p>作者：Shayan 每日图表</p>
<p>在日线图上，以太坊已经失去了其上升通道的中线，跌破了自八月以来支撑价格的虚线趋势线。该资产目前正在测试 4,000 美元的关键水平，这与通道的下边界和位于 3,800 美元附近的 100 日移动平均线紧密对齐。</p>
<p>相对强弱指数（RSI）也已接近超卖区域，但略有反弹，目前徘徊在 40 附近，暗示如果买家以成交量介入，可能会出现局部底部。然而，如果该资产跌破 4,000 美元水平，可能会预期向 3,500 美元区间进一步下跌，这将正式使市场进入下行趋势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>4 小时图表</p>
<p>在 4 小时图上，以太坊在达到 3,850 美元的紫色需求区后显示出短期反弹的迹象。价格从该区域反弹相当明显，目前正在 4,000 美元下方整固。这一走势形成了潜在的短期底部，尤其是 RSI 已经退出超卖区域并开始上升。</p>
<p>也就是说，只要以太坊保持在 4,200 美元以下，结构仍然是看跌的。如果买家能够重新夺回该水平，动能可能会转向看涨。否则，未来几周向 3,500 美元区域的下跌将非常可能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>链上分析 交易所供应比率</p>
<p>在链上数据方面，以太坊的交易所供应比率持续下降，目前处于多年来的最低点，接近 0.13。这表明总以太坊供应中持有在中心化交易所的部分正在减少，暗示出强劲的长期积累趋势。从历史上看，这一直是一个看涨信号，因为这意味着可供出售的代币减少。</p>
<p>然而，这一积累趋势与最近的价格走势形成对比。尽管在交易所的以太坊数量减少，价格仍然大幅下跌，这可能是由于短期杠杆清算或更广泛的市场情绪所致。无论如何，这一指标支持长期持有者保持信心的观点，除非我们看到交易所流入的突然逆转，否则宏观看涨结构仍然保持不变。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg"/></p>

ETHE

<p>如果以太坊跌破 4000 美元的支撑位，可能会进一步下跌至 3500 美元。目前，ETH 在近期抛售后正在测试这一关键水平，价格走势和链上指标发出混合信号。日线图显示出看跌结构，而 4 小时图则显示出可能的短期反弹。链上分析显示，交易所供应比率正在下降，尽管近期价格下跌，但这表明长期积累的趋势。总体而言，市场保持谨慎，交易者在关注这些关键水平</p>

<p>Ethereum is currently attempting to stabilize after the recent sell-off that pushed prices below key levels. While the bullish trend structure hasn’t been fully broken on higher timeframes, both price action and on-chain metrics are showing mixed signals that traders should closely monitor.Technical Analysis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊目前正试图在最近的抛售后稳定下来，价格跌破了关键水平。尽管在更高时间框架上看涨趋势结构尚未完全破裂，但价格走势和链上指标都显示出混合信号，交易者应密切关注。技术分析</p>
</div><p>By ShayanThe Daily Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Shayan 每日图表</p>
</div><p>On the daily chart, ETH has lost the midline of its ascending channel, breaking below the dotted trendline that had supported the price since August. The asset is now testing the $4,000 key level, which aligns closely with the lower boundary of the channel and the 100-day moving average located around the $3,800 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日线图上，以太坊已经失去了其上升通道的中线，跌破了自八月以来支撑价格的虚线趋势线。该资产目前正在测试 4,000 美元的关键水平，这与通道的下边界和位于 3,800 美元附近的 100 日移动平均线紧密对齐。</p>
</div><p>The RSI has also dipped near the oversold region but has rebounded slightly and is now hovering around 40, hinting at a possible local bottom if buyers step in with volume. However, if the asset breaks below the $4,000 level, a deeper drop toward the $3.5K range could be expected, which would officially put the market in a downtrend situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相对强弱指数（RSI）也已接近超卖区域，但略有反弹，目前徘徊在 40 附近，暗示如果买家以成交量介入，可能会出现局部底部。然而，如果该资产跌破 4,000 美元水平，可能会预期向 3,500 美元区间进一步下跌，这将正式使市场进入下行趋势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-8f0c68d9992823c09ddf60747810dcee-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>The 4-Hour Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 小时图表</p>
</div><p>On the 4-hour chart, ETH shows signs of a short-term rebound after reaching the purple demand zone around $3,850. The price bounced quite sharply from this zone and is now consolidating just below $4K. This move forms a potential short-term bottom, especially since RSI has exited oversold territory and is now trending up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 小时图上，以太坊在达到 3,850 美元的紫色需求区后显示出短期反弹的迹象。价格从该区域反弹相当明显，目前正在 4,000 美元下方整固。这一走势形成了潜在的短期底部，尤其是 RSI 已经退出超卖区域并开始上升。</p>
</div><p>That said, the structure remains bearish as long as ETH stays below $4,200 level. If buyers can reclaim that level, momentum could shift back in favor of a bullish move. Otherwise, a drop toward the $3,500 area would be very probable in the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，只要以太坊保持在 4,200 美元以下，结构仍然是看跌的。如果买家能够重新夺回该水平，动能可能会转向看涨。否则，未来几周向 3,500 美元区域的下跌将非常可能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-c230c7e57244f7f38c370a1081d0899b-resized.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Onchain Analysis Exchange Supply Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>链上分析 交易所供应比率</p>
</div><p>On the on-chain data front, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio continues to trend downward, now sitting at its lowest point in years, near 0.13. This shows that a declining portion of the total ETH supply is held on centralized exchanges, suggesting a strong long-term accumulation trend. Historically, this has been a bullish signal, as it means fewer tokens are readily available for selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在链上数据方面，以太坊的交易所供应比率持续下降，目前处于多年来的最低点，接近 0.13。这表明总以太坊供应中持有在中心化交易所的部分正在减少，暗示出强劲的长期积累趋势。从历史上看，这一直是一个看涨信号，因为这意味着可供出售的代币减少。</p>
</div><p>However, this accumulation trend contrasts with the recent price action. While fewer ETH are sitting on exchanges, the price still dropped sharply, possibly due to short-term leverage wipeouts or broader market sentiment. In any case, this metric supports the idea that long-term holders remain confident, and unless we see a sudden reversal in exchange inflows, the macro bullish structure stays intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一积累趋势与最近的价格走势形成对比。尽管在交易所的以太坊数量减少，价格仍然大幅下跌，这可能是由于短期杠杆清算或更广泛的市场情绪所致。无论如何，这一指标支持长期持有者保持信心的观点，除非我们看到交易所流入的突然逆转，否则宏观看涨结构仍然保持不变。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://s3.tradingview.com/news/image/cryptopotato:c3c4a18c8094b-93c7e7f5d597b4fc731e4e73ccb2cfe3-resized.jpeg"/></p>

如果这一支撑位失守，以太坊可能进一步下跌至 3,500 美元：以太坊价格分析