<p>在过去的 16 年中，股市几乎势不可挡。除了 2020 年 2 月至 3 月的五周 COVID-19 崩盘，以及 2022 年大约九个月的熊市外，华尔街一直被牛市牢牢掌控。</p>
<p>这种持续的超额表现主要归功于华尔街的万亿企业。想想 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.27%）和 <strong>Apple</strong>，以及新加入万亿俱乐部的 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 和 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（TSMC）。</p>
<p>总的来说，只有 11 家上市公司曾达到 1 万亿美元的市值，不考虑通货膨胀的影响，其中 10 家在美国交易所上市。这包括所有的 “七大奇迹” 成员，以及 Broadcom、TSMC 和亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特的公司 <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNDgvbnlzZS13YWxsLXN0cmVldC1zaWduLWRvdy1zcC01MDAtbmFzZGFxLWludmVzdC1yZXRpcmUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNDgvbnlzZS13YWxsLXN0cmVldC1zaWduLWRvdy1zcC01MDAtbmFzZGFxLWludmVzdC1yZXRpcmUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>虽然 Nvidia 似乎在 2020 年代初期有望继续保持华尔街最有价值上市公司的称号，但另一位七大奇迹成员则处于理想位置，有望取代 Nvidia，并在此过程中超越 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>。</p>
<h2>尽管在人工智能领域占据主导地位，Nvidia 在万亿宝座上的位置远非稳固</h2>
<p>截至 9 月 24 日收盘，人工智能（AI）巨头 Nvidia 的市值超过 4.3 万亿美元。它是第一家达到 4 万亿美元市值的上市公司，并且根据华尔街最乐观分析师的目标价格，预计有机会超过 6 万亿美元的估值。</p>
<p>这种乐观情绪源于 Nvidia 作为企业数据中心中 AI 图形处理单元（GPU）领导者的主导地位。三代先进的 AI 芯片——Hopper（H100）、Blackwell，以及现在的 Blackwell Ultra——都享有着无法满足的需求和大量的订单积压。</p>
<p>除了明显的计算优势外，Nvidia 的 AI 硬件还受益于 AI GPU 供应的持续短缺。只要企业需求超过可用硬件，Nvidia 就不会有问题以溢价出售其 GPU，并获得超过 70% 的毛利率。</p>
<p>虽然这些竞争优势意味着 Nvidia 在万亿宝座上的位置是安全的，但历史先例却并非如此。</p>
<p>华尔街最大上市公司的主要威胁之一是，过去三十多年来的每一个下一个大趋势最终都经历了一个泡沫破裂事件。这意味着投资者总是高估了下一个大趋势创新的早期采用和实际应用。尽管 AI 有着不可否认的长期应用，但大多数企业目前还远未优化这些解决方案，或者尚未从其 AI 投资中获得正回报。</p>
<p>竞争也是不可忽视的。即使外部竞争者在计算能力上落后于 Nvidia，华尔街的 AI 宠儿也很有可能在宝贵的数据中心市场上失去地位，或被延迟的 AI GPU 升级周期所削弱。</p>
<p>Nvidia 最大的客户之一正在开发 AI GPU 以在其数据中心中部署。尽管这些芯片不会在外部与 Nvidia 的硬件竞争，但它们的制造成本要低得多，且更易于获取。这将导致 Nvidia 的竞争优势在未来几年内减弱，华尔街的 AI 王者可能会失去其作为最有价值上市公司的称号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNDgvYW16bi1kZWxpdmVyeS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNDgvYW16bi1kZWxpdmVyeS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Amazon。</p>
<h2>到 2030 年，华尔街最有价值的上市公司将是这个</h2>
<p>虽然 <strong>Apple</strong> 或 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 似乎是重新夺回这两个公司曾经占据的顶尖位置的合乎逻辑的选择，但双重行业领导者 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN 0.78%）是最有可能在 2030 年成为华尔街最有价值公司的万亿股票。</p>
<p>通常向消费者介绍 Amazon 的运营部门是其在线市场。根据 Analyzify 的估计，Amazon 的电子商务部门占美国在线零售销售的 37.6%。Amazon 作为领先的电子商务巨头的地位并未受到威胁——尽管其与在线零售销售相关的运营利润率往往非常微薄。</p>
<p>虽然 Amazon 的零售业务为公司提供了一个面孔，但未来几年将负责增加公司运营现金流的将是三大利润率更高的辅助部门。</p>
<p>没有什么比云基础设施平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）对 Amazon 的长期成功更具影响力。科技分析公司 Canalys 估计其在全球云基础设施支出中的份额在第二季度达到了 32%，几乎与 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 的 Azure 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google Cloud 的总和相当。</p>
<p>AWS 的年同比增长率在高十几个百分点，排除货币波动。这里的想法是，生成性 AI 解决方案和大型语言模型能力的引入将进一步提升 AWS 的增长率。</p>
<p>截至 6 月结束的季度，AWS 的年化收入超过 1230 亿美元。最重要的是，尽管 AWS 的净销售额不到 19%，但在 2025 年上半年几乎占据了 Amazon 运营收入的 58%。即使出现 AI 泡沫并破裂，像 AWS 这样的应用提供商也能经受住风暴。</p>
<p>Amazon 的其他组成部分是广告服务和订阅服务。当你每月吸引数十亿人访问你的网站时，掌控卓越的广告定价能力并不困难。</p>
<p>亚马逊与国家橄榄球联盟和国家篮球协会达成了独家流媒体合作，这无疑是一个加分项。结合电子商务的运输优惠和独家购物活动，亚马逊在其 Prime 订阅服务上拥有强大的定价权。</p>
<p>最后，亚马逊历史上一直被低估。从 2010 年到 2019 年，亚马逊每年的市盈率在 23 到 37 倍之间。根据华尔街的共识，预计亚马逊的每股现金流将从 2024 年的 11.04 美元增长到 2029 年的 27.52 美元。</p>
<p>换句话说，亚马逊在 2029 年的预计现金流仅为 8 倍，这意味着它可以合理地在此基础上增加 2.5 万亿到 4 万亿美元的市场价值，并且仍然以显著低于 2010 年代平均现金流倍数的价格交易。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>股市在过去 16 年中经历了显著增长，英伟达和苹果等公司引领了这一趋势。英伟达目前的市值超过 4.3 万亿美元，但竞争和市场动态可能威胁其地位。分析师预测，到 2030 年，亚马逊可能成为华尔街最有价值的上市公司，这得益于其强大的电子商务业务和亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的增长，后者在云基础设施市场占据了重要份额</p>

<p>For much of the last 16 years, the stock market has been unstoppable. With the exception of the five-week COVID-19 crash in February-March 2020, and the roughly nine-month bear market in 2022, the bulls have been in firm control on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 16 年中，股市几乎势不可挡。除了 2020 年 2 月至 3 月的五周 COVID-19 崩盘，以及 2022 年大约九个月的熊市外，华尔街一直被牛市牢牢掌控。</p>
</div><p>The catalyst for this ongoing outperformance primarily rests with Wall Street's trillion-dollar businesses. Think <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.27%) and <strong>Apple</strong>, as well as newer trillion-dollar club members <strong>Broadcom</strong> and <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>, which is also known as TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种持续的超额表现主要归功于华尔街的万亿企业。想想 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.27%）和 <strong>Apple</strong>，以及新加入万亿俱乐部的 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 和 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（TSMC）。</p>
</div><p>All told, just 11 publicly traded companies have ever reached a $1 trillion market cap, not accounting for the effects of inflation, and 10 trade on U.S. exchanges. This includes all members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; along with Broadcom, TSMC, and billionaire Warren Buffett's company, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，只有 11 家上市公司曾达到 1 万亿美元的市值，不考虑通货膨胀的影响，其中 10 家在美国交易所上市。这包括所有的 “七大奇迹” 成员，以及 Broadcom、TSMC 和亿万富翁沃伦·巴菲特的公司 <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNDgvbnlzZS13YWxsLXN0cmVldC1zaWduLWRvdy1zcC01MDAtbmFzZGFxLWludmVzdC1yZXRpcmUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835048%2Fnyse-wall-street-sign-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-invest-retire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia appears to have the inside path to retaining its current title as Wall Street's most valuable public company by the turn of the decade, another Mag Seven member is ideally positioned to dethrone Nvidia and leapfrog the likes of Apple and <strong>Microsoft</strong> along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Nvidia 似乎在 2020 年代初期有望继续保持华尔街最有价值上市公司的称号，但另一位七大奇迹成员则处于理想位置，有望取代 Nvidia，并在此过程中超越 <strong>Apple</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>。</p>
</div><h2>Despite its AI dominance, Nvidia's spot atop the trillion-dollar pedestal is far from secure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管在人工智能领域占据主导地位，Nvidia 在万亿宝座上的位置远非稳固</h2>
</div><p>As of the closing bell on Sept. 24, artificial intelligence (AI) titan Nvidia clocked in with a market cap north of $4.3 trillion. It's the first public company to have reached the $4 trillion mark, and is believed to have a chance to surpass a $6 trillion valuation, based on the price targets of Wall Street's most optimistic analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 9 月 24 日收盘，人工智能（AI）巨头 Nvidia 的市值超过 4.3 万亿美元。它是第一家达到 4 万亿美元市值的上市公司，并且根据华尔街最乐观分析师的目标价格，预计有机会超过 6 万亿美元的估值。</p>
</div><p>This optimism stems from Nvidia's dominant position as the leader in AI graphics processing units (GPUs) deployed in enterprise data centers. Three generations of advanced AI chips -- Hopper (H100), Blackwell, and now Blackwell Ultra -- have enjoyed insatiable demand and extensive order backlogs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种乐观情绪源于 Nvidia 作为企业数据中心中 AI 图形处理单元（GPU）领导者的主导地位。三代先进的 AI 芯片——Hopper（H100）、Blackwell，以及现在的 Blackwell Ultra——都享有着无法满足的需求和大量的订单积压。</p>
</div><p>Aside from clear-cut compute advantages, Nvidia's AI hardware benefits from a persistent lack of AI GPU supply. As long as enterprise demand overwhelms available hardware, Nvidia is going to have no trouble charging a premium for its GPUs and netting a gross margin in excess of 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了明显的计算优势外，Nvidia 的 AI 硬件还受益于 AI GPU 供应的持续短缺。只要企业需求超过可用硬件，Nvidia 就不会有问题以溢价出售其 GPU，并获得超过 70% 的毛利率。</p>
</div><p>While these competitive edges would imply that Nvidia's spot atop the trillion-dollar pedestal is secure, historical precedent would beg to differ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这些竞争优势意味着 Nvidia 在万亿宝座上的位置是安全的，但历史先例却并非如此。</p>
</div><p>One of the prime threats to Wall Street's largest public company is that every next-big-thing trend dating back more than three decades has eventually navigated its way through a bubble-bursting event early in its expansion. This is to say that investors consistently overestimate the early adoption and real-world utility of next-big-thing innovations. Though AI has undeniable long-term applications, most businesses are nowhere close to optimizing these solutions at present, or have yet to net a positive return on their AI investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街最大上市公司的主要威胁之一是，过去三十多年来的每一个下一个大趋势最终都经历了一个泡沫破裂事件。这意味着投资者总是高估了下一个大趋势创新的早期采用和实际应用。尽管 AI 有着不可否认的长期应用，但大多数企业目前还远未优化这些解决方案，或者尚未从其 AI 投资中获得正回报。</p>
</div><p>Competition is something that can't be ignored, either. Even with external competitors lagging Nvidia in compute ability, there's a very real possibility of Wall Street's AI darling losing out on valuable data center real estate and/or being undermined by delayed AI GPU upgrade cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争也是不可忽视的。即使外部竞争者在计算能力上落后于 Nvidia，华尔街的 AI 宠儿也很有可能在宝贵的数据中心市场上失去地位，或被延迟的 AI GPU 升级周期所削弱。</p>
</div><p>Many of Nvidia's largest customers by net sales are developing AI GPUs to deploy in their data centers. Though these chips won't be competing with Nvidia's hardware externally, they're considerably cheaper to build and more readily accessible. It's a recipe for Nvidia's competitive edge to dwindle in the coming years, and for Wall Street's AI kingpin to cede its title as the most valuable public company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 最大的客户之一正在开发 AI GPU 以在其数据中心中部署。尽管这些芯片不会在外部与 Nvidia 的硬件竞争，但它们的制造成本要低得多，且更易于获取。这将导致 Nvidia 的竞争优势在未来几年内减弱，华尔街的 AI 王者可能会失去其作为最有价值上市公司的称号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNDgvYW16bi1kZWxpdmVyeS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835048%2Famzn-delivery.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Amazon。</p>
</div><h2>This will be Wall Street's most valuable public company come 2030</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>到 2030 年，华尔街最有价值的上市公司将是这个</h2>
</div><p>Although Apple or Microsoft would seem to be logical choices to reclaim the top spot that both companies have previously held, dual-industry leader <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.78%) is the trillion-dollar stock that looks to have the best chance to become Wall Street's most valuable company by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 <strong>Apple</strong> 或 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 似乎是重新夺回这两个公司曾经占据的顶尖位置的合乎逻辑的选择，但双重行业领导者 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN 0.78%）是最有可能在 2030 年成为华尔街最有价值公司的万亿股票。</p>
</div><p>The operating segment that typically introduces consumers to Amazon is its online marketplace. According to estimates from Analyzify, Amazon's e-commerce segment accounts for a 37.6% share of U.S. online retail sales. Amazon's spot as the leading e-commerce giant isn't threatened -- although its operating margin associated with online retail sales tends to be razor thin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常向消费者介绍 Amazon 的运营部门是其在线市场。根据 Analyzify 的估计，Amazon 的电子商务部门占美国在线零售销售的 37.6%。Amazon 作为领先的电子商务巨头的地位并未受到威胁——尽管其与在线零售销售相关的运营利润率往往非常微薄。</p>
</div><p>While Amazon's retail operations provide a face for the company, it's a trio of considerably higher-margin ancillary segments that'll be responsible for bulking up the company's operating cash flow in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Amazon 的零售业务为公司提供了一个面孔，但未来几年将负责增加公司运营现金流的将是三大利润率更高的辅助部门。</p>
</div><p>Nothing has more bearing on Amazon's long-term success than cloud infrastructure platform Amazon Web Services (AWS). Tech analysis firm Canalys pegged its share of worldwide cloud infrastructure spend at 32% during the second quarter, which is nearly as much as Microsoft's Azure and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google Cloud on a <em>combined</em> basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有什么比云基础设施平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）对 Amazon 的长期成功更具影响力。科技分析公司 Canalys 估计其在全球云基础设施支出中的份额在第二季度达到了 32%，几乎与 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 的 Azure 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google Cloud 的总和相当。</p>
</div><p>AWS has been growing by a high-teens percentage on a year-over-year basis, excluding currency movements. The thinking here is that the inclusion of generative AI solutions and large language model capabilities for AWS clients will only enhance the growth rate for AWS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 的年同比增长率在高十几个百分点，排除货币波动。这里的想法是，生成性 AI 解决方案和大型语言模型能力的引入将进一步提升 AWS 的增长率。</p>
</div><p>As of the June-ended quarter, AWS was pacing more than $123 billion in annual run-rate revenue. Most importantly, AWS is responsible for almost 58% of Amazon's operating income through the first half of 2025 despite accounting for less than 19% of net sales. Even if an AI bubble forms and bursts, application providers like AWS can weather the storm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 6 月结束的季度，AWS 的年化收入超过 1230 亿美元。最重要的是，尽管 AWS 的净销售额不到 19%，但在 2025 年上半年几乎占据了 Amazon 运营收入的 58%。即使出现 AI 泡沫并破裂，像 AWS 这样的应用提供商也能经受住风暴。</p>
</div><p>The other pieces of the puzzle for Amazon are advertising services and subscription services. When you're drawing billions of people to your site monthly, it's not difficult to command exceptional ad-pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 的其他组成部分是广告服务和订阅服务。当你每月吸引数十亿人访问你的网站时，掌控卓越的广告定价能力并不困难。</p>
</div><p>It also doesn't hurt that Amazon has landed exclusive streaming partnerships with the National Football League and National Basketball Association. When coupled with e-commerce shipping perks and exclusive shopping events, Amazon has plenty of pricing power with its Prime subscription.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊与国家橄榄球联盟和国家篮球协会达成了独家流媒体合作，这无疑是一个加分项。结合电子商务的运输优惠和独家购物活动，亚马逊在其 Prime 订阅服务上拥有强大的定价权。</p>
</div><p>Finally, Amazon is historically inexpensive. From 2010 to 2019, Amazon closed out each year between 23 and 37 times trailing-12-month cash flow. Based on Wall Street's consensus, Amazon's cash flow per share is forecast to grow from a reported $11.04 in 2024 to $27.52 in 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，亚马逊历史上一直被低估。从 2010 年到 2019 年，亚马逊每年的市盈率在 23 到 37 倍之间。根据华尔街的共识，预计亚马逊的每股现金流将从 2024 年的 11.04 美元增长到 2029 年的 27.52 美元。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Amazon is valued at only 8 times projected cash flow in 2029, which means it can reasonably add $2.5 trillion to $4 trillion in market value from here and <em>still</em> be trading at a significant discount to its average cash flow multiple during the 2010s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，亚马逊在 2029 年的预计现金流仅为 8 倍，这意味着它可以合理地在此基础上增加 2.5 万亿到 4 万亿美元的市场价值，并且仍然以显著低于 2010 年代平均现金流倍数的价格交易。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Wall Street's Most Valuable Public Company by 2030 Will Be This Dual-Industry Leader (No, Not Nvidia)

- 过去 16 年，股市表现强劲，主要受万亿企业推动。  
- Nvidia 和 Apple 等公司在市场中占据主导地位，Nvidia 市值超过 4.3 万亿美元。  
- 预计到 2030 年，亚马逊有望成为华尔街最有价值的公司。

预测：到 2030 年，华尔街最有价值的上市公司将是一家双行业的领导者（不，不是英伟达）