<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.27%）宣布将投资高达 1000 亿美元于 OpenAI，这被公司视为对人工智能（AI）未来的巨大押注。然而，投资者应该更仔细地看看这里到底发生了什么。OpenAI 所获得的资金最终将直接投入到英伟达的硬件中，主要通过 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 的云基础设施建设，两家公司最近签署了一项高达 3000 亿美元的巨大交易。</p>
<p>OpenAI 计划部署需要 10 吉瓦电力的英伟达系统，这相当于大约 400 万到 500 万块图形处理单元（GPU）。如果这听起来很多，那确实是，因为这大约是英伟达今年将发货的 GPU 总数。英伟达投资的前 10 亿美元将在第一吉瓦的产能上线后立即投入，其余部分将在新的数据中心上线时分阶段推出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ5NzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA3ODkxNzEwOS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="411" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ5NzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA3ODkxNzEwOS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>循环融资</h2>
<p>从表面上看，OpenAI 的投资有助于确保未来数十亿美元的需求。但值得记住的是，英伟达现在正在帮助其最大客户之一融资，以便继续购买其芯片。这被称为循环融资。</p>
<p>英伟达本质上是在为自己的需求提供资金。这正是 <strong>思科系统</strong>（CSCO -0.93%）在互联网泡沫期间所做的，当时它向电信公司提供信贷，以便他们能够购买更多的思科路由器。这些销售看起来很不错——直到资本枯竭，整个市场崩溃。</p>
<p>这也是英伟达的一项防御性举措。越来越多的英伟达最大客户正在设计自己的定制 AI 芯片。<strong>字母表</strong> 有其 TPU，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 有 Trainium 和 Inferentia，<strong>微软</strong> 正在开发自己的芯片。OpenAI 本身也在开发定制芯片以降低成本，在此次公告之前，它向 <strong>博通</strong> 下了价值 100 亿美元的定制芯片订单，预计明年交付。</p>
<p>这也是英伟达在加密货币领域看到的同样威胁，ASIC（应用特定集成电路）取代了 GPU 用于 <strong>比特币</strong> 挖矿。英伟达不想再看到这种情况发生。通过投资 OpenAI，它试图将其最大客户锁定在英伟达生态系统中。</p>
<p>此时市场也正向推理转变，而英伟达在这一领域的护城河要小得多。训练大型语言模型（LLM）是英伟达的 CUDA 软件平台的强项。然而，推理并不那么复杂，也不需要同样深度的软件集成。这就是为什么超大规模数据中心的拥有者如此积极地构建定制芯片。</p>
<p>推理也是一项持续的成本，因此每次推理的成本经济学开始主导讨论。这就是为什么英伟达还在 <strong>英特尔</strong> 上投资了 50 亿美元，并宣布在 AI 处理器上进行合作，因为它也在努力抵御 <strong>超微</strong> 在推理市场的竞争，并保持对这一 AI 计算下一个阶段的控制。</p>
<h2>这是一座纸牌屋吗？</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，英伟达目前处于主导地位，而 OpenAI 的交易只会增强其短期前景。但其对 OpenAI 的投资显然看起来是一项防御性举措，增加了风险。当思科在互联网繁荣期间使用循环融资时，看起来很聪明，直到它资助的客户破产。</p>
<p>英伟达和 OpenAI 的定位都更好，但原则是相同的：英伟达正在利用其资产负债表来保持需求高企。这在 AI 繁荣持续时有效，但如果支出放缓或超大规模数据中心转向更便宜的解决方案，这将使公司面临更大的风险。</p>
<p>英伟达仍然是 AI 基础设施的关键参与者，但这笔交易提醒我们，其增长并非没有风险。英伟大的成功现在在很大程度上依赖于一家亏损的公司，该公司正在消耗大量现金，而这些现金正是由英伟达融资的。OpenAI 尚未证明其拥有一个优秀的商业模式，如果它失败，这将成为一座倒塌在英伟达身上的纸牌屋。</p>

OpenAI

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达对 OpenAI 的 1000 亿美元投资被视为对人工智能未来的重要押注，但这引发了关于循环融资的担忧，即英伟达为自身需求提供资金。这一策略与思科在互联网泡沫期间的过去错误相似。随着竞争对手开发定制的人工智能芯片，英伟达的投资显得更具防御性，旨在确保其在不断变化的市场中的地位。尽管这笔交易增强了英伟达的前景，但也增加了风险，因为 OpenAI 尚未经过验证的商业模式可能会在支出放缓或出现更便宜的替代品时危及英伟达的增长</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 0.27%) announcement that it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI is being hailed by the company as a massive bet on the future of artificial intelligence (AI). Still, investors should take a closer look at what is really going on here. The money OpenAI receives will ultimately be plowed right back into Nvidia hardware, mostly through <strong>Oracle</strong>'s cloud buildout, where the two companies recently signed a massive $300 billion deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.27%）宣布将投资高达 1000 亿美元于 OpenAI，这被公司视为对人工智能（AI）未来的巨大押注。然而，投资者应该更仔细地看看这里到底发生了什么。OpenAI 所获得的资金最终将直接投入到英伟达的硬件中，主要通过 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 的云基础设施建设，两家公司最近签署了一项高达 3000 亿美元的巨大交易。</p>
</div><p>OpenAI plans to deploy Nvidia systems that need 10 gigawatts of power, which is equal to roughly 4 million to 5 million graphics processing units (GPUs). If that sounds like a lot, it is, as it's about the same total number of GPUs that Nvidia will ship this year. The first $10 billion of Nvidia's investment will be deployed as soon as the first gigawatt of capacity is up, and the rest will be rolled out in stages as new data centers come online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 计划部署需要 10 吉瓦电力的英伟达系统，这相当于大约 400 万到 500 万块图形处理单元（GPU）。如果这听起来很多，那确实是，因为这大约是英伟达今年将发货的 GPU 总数。英伟达投资的前 10 亿美元将在第一吉瓦的产能上线后立即投入，其余部分将在新的数据中心上线时分阶段推出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ5NzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA3ODkxNzEwOS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834971%2Fgettyimages-2078917109.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Circular financing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>循环融资</h2>
</div><p>On paper, the OpenAI investment helps secure billions of dollars in future demand. But it's worth remembering that Nvidia is now helping finance one of its biggest customers to keep buying its chips. This is called circular financing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，OpenAI 的投资有助于确保未来数十亿美元的需求。但值得记住的是，英伟达现在正在帮助其最大客户之一融资，以便继续购买其芯片。这被称为循环融资。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is essentially funding its own demand. This is exactly what <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>(CSCO -0.93%) did during the internet bubble, when it provided credit to telecoms so they could buy more Cisco routers. Those sales looked great -- until the capital dried up and the entire market collapsed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达本质上是在为自己的需求提供资金。这正是 <strong>思科系统</strong>（CSCO -0.93%）在互联网泡沫期间所做的，当时它向电信公司提供信贷，以便他们能够购买更多的思科路由器。这些销售看起来很不错——直到资本枯竭，整个市场崩溃。</p>
</div><p>This is also a defensive move by Nvidia. More and more of Nvidia's largest customers are designing their own custom AI chips. <strong>Alphabet</strong> has its TPUs, <strong>Amazon</strong> has Trainium and Inferentia, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> is working on its own chip. OpenAI itself has been developing custom chips to bring its costs down, and before this announcement, it placed a $10 billion order with <strong>Broadcom</strong> for custom chips to be delivered next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是英伟达的一项防御性举措。越来越多的英伟达最大客户正在设计自己的定制 AI 芯片。<strong>字母表</strong> 有其 TPU，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 有 Trainium 和 Inferentia，<strong>微软</strong> 正在开发自己的芯片。OpenAI 本身也在开发定制芯片以降低成本，在此次公告之前，它向 <strong>博通</strong> 下了价值 100 亿美元的定制芯片订单，预计明年交付。</p>
</div><p>This is the same threat that Nvidia saw play out in crypto, where ASICs (application specific integrated circuits) displaced GPUs for <strong>Bitcoin</strong> mining. Nvidia doesn't want to see that happen again. By investing in OpenAI, it's trying to keep one of its biggest customers locked into the Nvidia ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是英伟达在加密货币领域看到的同样威胁，ASIC（应用特定集成电路）取代了 GPU 用于 <strong>比特币</strong> 挖矿。英伟达不想再看到这种情况发生。通过投资 OpenAI，它试图将其最大客户锁定在英伟达生态系统中。</p>
</div><p>This also comes at a time when the market is shifting more toward inference, where Nvidia's moat is much smaller. Training large language models (LLMs) is where Nvidia's CUDA software platform shines. However, inference isn't as complex and doesn't require the same deep software integration. That's why hyperscalers (owners of massive data centers) are so motivated to build custom chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此时市场也正向推理转变，而英伟达在这一领域的护城河要小得多。训练大型语言模型（LLM）是英伟达的 CUDA 软件平台的强项。然而，推理并不那么复杂，也不需要同样深度的软件集成。这就是为什么超大规模数据中心的拥有者如此积极地构建定制芯片。</p>
</div><p>Inference is also a continuous cost, so the economics of cost per inference start to dominate the discussion. That's why Nvidia also took a $5 billion stake in <strong>Intel</strong> and announced a collaboration on AI processors, as it's also trying to stave off <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> in the inference market and keep its grip on this next phase of AI computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推理也是一项持续的成本，因此每次推理的成本经济学开始主导讨论。这就是为什么英伟达还在 <strong>英特尔</strong> 上投资了 50 亿美元，并宣布在 AI 处理器上进行合作，因为它也在努力抵御 <strong>超微</strong> 在推理市场的竞争，并保持对这一 AI 计算下一个阶段的控制。</p>
</div><h2>Is this a house of cards?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这是一座纸牌屋吗？</h2>
</div><p>There's no question that Nvidia is in a dominant position right now, and the OpenAI deal only strengthens its near-term outlook. But its OpenAI investment clearly looks like a defensive move that adds risk. When Cisco used circular financing during the internet boom, it looked brilliant, until the customers it was funding went bust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，英伟达目前处于主导地位，而 OpenAI 的交易只会增强其短期前景。但其对 OpenAI 的投资显然看起来是一项防御性举措，增加了风险。当思科在互联网繁荣期间使用循环融资时，看起来很聪明，直到它资助的客户破产。</p>
</div><p>Both Nvidia and OpenAI are better positioned, but the principle is the same: Nvidia is using its balance sheet to keep demand high. That works as long as the AI boom keeps running, but it makes the company more exposed if spending slows or if hyperscalers switch to cheaper solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和 OpenAI 的定位都更好，但原则是相同的：英伟达正在利用其资产负债表来保持需求高企。这在 AI 繁荣持续时有效，但如果支出放缓或超大规模数据中心转向更便宜的解决方案，这将使公司面临更大的风险。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia remains the key player in AI infrastructure, but this deal is a reminder that its growth isn't risk-free. A lot of Nvidia's success is now riding on an unprofitable company that is bleeding massive amounts of cash that it is financing. OpenAI hasn't actually proven yet that it has a great business model, and if it fails, this becomes a house of cards that collapses onto Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达仍然是 AI 基础设施的关键参与者，但这笔交易提醒我们，其增长并非没有风险。英伟大的成功现在在很大程度上依赖于一家亏损的公司，该公司正在消耗大量现金，而这些现金正是由英伟达融资的。OpenAI 尚未证明其拥有一个优秀的商业模式，如果它失败，这将成为一座倒塌在英伟达身上的纸牌屋。</p>
</div>

Did Nvidia Just Repeat Cisco's Mistake and Build a House of Cards With OpenAI Investment?

- Nvidia 宣布将投资高达 1000 亿美元于 OpenAI，旨在推动人工智能发展。  
- 投资将主要用于 Nvidia 硬件，OpenAI 计划部署需要 10 吉瓦电力的系统。  
- 此举被视为防御性策略，Nvidia 试图锁定其最大客户，降低市场风险。  

英伟达是否通过对 OpenAI 的投资重蹈思科的覆辙，建立了一座空中楼阁？