<p>当美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年提高基准利率时，许多收入投资者抛售了他们的股息股票，转而购买收益更高的无风险定期存款和国债。然而，美联储在 2024 年降低了三次利率，最近执行了 2025 年的第一次降息，并计划在年底前至少再降息两次。</p>
<p>随着利率的下降，定期存款和国债将失去吸引力，收入投资者将再次转向高收益股息股票。其中一只股票可能是 <strong>AGNC</strong>(AGNC 0.87%)，其前瞻性收益率高达 14.75%，但仍低于华尔街的最高目标价 10.50 美元。让我们看看现在是否值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTUvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTUvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 对利率波动敏感</h2>
<p>AGNC 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托基金（mREIT）。与传统的房地产投资信托基金不同，后者购买物业并出租以赚取收入，mREIT 仅发放自己的抵押贷款并购买其他抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）以产生利息收入。</p>
<p>这种策略看似风险较大，但 AGNC 将其 823 亿美元投资组合的 89.1% 分配给由房利美、房地美或政府国民抵押贷款协会支持的机构 MBS 资产。这种政府支持应能保护其免受另一次住房危机或信贷紧缩的影响。</p>
<p>传统的房地产投资信托基金通常在低利率使得购买更多物业变得更便宜时蓬勃发展。然而，mREIT 需要利率保持在 “金发女孩区间” 才能产生稳定的利润。如果利率过高，市场对新抵押贷款的需求会枯竭，AGNC 将被迫从其旧的 MBS 中赚取较低的收益。如果利率过低，它的利息收入会减少，现有的抵押贷款将以更低的利率再融资。</p>
<p>为了为未来的 MBS 购买产生现金，AGNC 不断将自己的 MBS 出售给对手银行（并与其达成协议，在未来某个日期以设定价格加利息回购这些证券）。这些对手方将 MBS 作为现金支付的抵押品，而这些证券的利息仍然流回 AGNC。</p>
<p>在这种所谓的 “回购交易” 中，AGNC 的利润或损失与其支付给对手方的贷款利息与其在 MBS 上获得的收益之间的差额挂钩。如果短期利率较高，它需要向对手方支付更高的利息，但可能无法从 MBS（其到期日较长）中获得足够的利息来覆盖这些支付。如果短期利率较低，它将在这两种收益之间有更多的缓冲空间。</p>
<h2>为什么 AGNC 的股票在过去一年中下跌？</h2>
<p>根据这些事实，美联储的降息应该会提升 AGNC 的利润。但在过去 12 个月中，其股票仍然下跌了 6%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数上涨了 15%。</p>
<p>AGNC 通过其每股 “净利差和美元滚动收入” 来衡量其利润增长。净利差是其从上述回购交易中获得的利润，而美元滚动收入来自购买 TBA 合约（在未来某个日期购买一组 MBS 的协议）并在结算日期之前出售它们以购买额外的 TBA 合约。在这些 “滚动” 交易中，AGNC 不断出售合约，但从未实际购买基础的 MBS。</p>
<p>衡量 AGNC 价值的另一种方式是通过其 “每股有形净资产”，即将其资产总值除以其流通股数。理论上，较低的利率应该会提升 AGNC 的净利差和美元滚动收入，同时增加其每股有形净资产。但在过去一年中发生的情况是：</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| 每股净利差和美元滚动收入 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 | $0.44 | $0.38 |
| 每股有形净资产 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 | $8.25 | $7.81 |</p>
<p>数据来源：AGNC。</p>
<p>尽管美联储的降息降低了其 MBS 收益率，但并没有以相同的速度降低其回购贷款的借款成本。因此，AGNC 的利润下降，因为它继续以较高的利率借款以购买收益较低的 MBS。这些降息也促使更多房主以较低的利率再融资他们的抵押贷款。</p>
<p>这就是为什么分析师预计 AGNC 的每股收益（EPS）将在 2025 年下降 15% 至 1.59 美元——这仍然足以覆盖其前瞻性股息率 1.44 美元。对于 2026 年，分析师预计其 EPS 将最终上升 2% 至 1.62 美元，因为其利率趋于稳定。AGNC 与其他 REIT 一样，必须将至少 90% 的税前收入作为股息支付，以享受较低的税率。</p>
<h2>你今天应该购买 AGNC 的股票吗？</h2>
<p>即使 AGNC 的股票上涨至 10.50 美元，按明年的收益计算，其市盈率仍为 6.5 倍，看起来仍然便宜。但如果美联储不落实其降息计划，其利率可能会保持波动，从而吞噬其利润。因此，尽管 AGNC 的股票可能已经触底，但我仍然会避免它，选择那些商业模式更简单的传统 REIT。</p>

美国资本代理公司

<p>AGNC 股票目前交易价格低于 10.50 美元的目标价，提供 14.75% 的前瞻收益率。尽管近期美联储降息，AGNC 的股票在过去一年中下跌了 6%。公司的利润受到利率波动的影响，净利差和每股美元滚动收入呈下降趋势。分析师预测 2025 年每股收益将下降 15%，尽管这仍将覆盖其股息。随着利率的下降，投资者正在考虑 AGNC，可能会重新转向高收益股息股票</p>

<p>When the Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark rates in 2022 and 2023, many income investors dumped their dividend stocks to buy risk-free CDs and T-bills with higher yields. However, the Fed reduced rates three times in 2024, recently executed its first rate cut of 2025, and has penciled in at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年提高基准利率时，许多收入投资者抛售了他们的股息股票，转而购买收益更高的无风险定期存款和国债。然而，美联储在 2024 年降低了三次利率，最近执行了 2025 年的第一次降息，并计划在年底前至少再降息两次。</p>
</div><p>As interest rates decline, CDs and T-bills will lose their luster as income investors pivot toward high-yield dividend stocks again. One of those stocks might be <strong>AGNC</strong>(AGNC 0.87%), which pays a whopping forward yield of 14.75% but still trades below Wall Street's top price target of $10.50 per share. Let's see if it's worth buying right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着利率的下降，定期存款和国债将失去吸引力，收入投资者将再次转向高收益股息股票。其中一只股票可能是 <strong>AGNC</strong>(AGNC 0.87%)，其前瞻性收益率高达 14.75%，但仍低于华尔街的最高目标价 10.50 美元。让我们看看现在是否值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTUvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835115%2Fperson-pointing-to-a-model-home.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AGNC is sensitive to interest rate swings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 对利率波动敏感</h2>
</div><p>AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT). Unlike traditional REITs, which purchase properties and rent them out to earn income, mREITs only originate their own mortgages and buy other mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to generate interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托基金（mREIT）。与传统的房地产投资信托基金不同，后者购买物业并出租以赚取收入，mREIT 仅发放自己的抵押贷款并购买其他抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）以产生利息收入。</p>
</div><p>That strategy might seem risky, but AGNC allocates 89.1% of its $82.3 billion portfolio to Agency MBS assets that are backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae. That government support should protect it from another housing crisis or credit crunch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种策略看似风险较大，但 AGNC 将其 823 亿美元投资组合的 89.1% 分配给由房利美、房地美或政府国民抵押贷款协会支持的机构 MBS 资产。这种政府支持应能保护其免受另一次住房危机或信贷紧缩的影响。</p>
</div><p>Traditional REITs generally flourish when low interest rates make it cheaper to buy more properties. However, mREITs need interest rates to stay in a &#34;Goldilocks zone&#34; to generate consistent profits. If interest rates are too high, the market's demand for fresh mortgages dries up and AGNC gets stuck earning lower yields from its older MBS. If the rates are too low, it earns less interest income and its existing mortgages will be refinanced at lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传统的房地产投资信托基金通常在低利率使得购买更多物业变得更便宜时蓬勃发展。然而，mREIT 需要利率保持在 “金发女孩区间” 才能产生稳定的利润。如果利率过高，市场对新抵押贷款的需求会枯竭，AGNC 将被迫从其旧的 MBS 中赚取较低的收益。如果利率过低，它的利息收入会减少，现有的抵押贷款将以更低的利率再融资。</p>
</div><p>To generate cash for its future MBS purchases, AGNC constantly sells its own MBS to counterparty banks (with an agreement to buy those securities back at a set price plus interest at a future date). Those counterparties hold the MBS as collateral for the cash payment, while the interest from those securities still flows back to AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了为未来的 MBS 购买产生现金，AGNC 不断将自己的 MBS 出售给对手银行（并与其达成协议，在未来某个日期以设定价格加利息回购这些证券）。这些对手方将 MBS 作为现金支付的抵押品，而这些证券的利息仍然流回 AGNC。</p>
</div><p>In this so-called &#34;repo transaction,&#34; AGNC's profit or loss is pinned to the spread between the interest it pays to the counterparty for the loan and the yield it earns on its MBS. If the short-term rates are high, it needs to pay the counterparty higher interest payments -- but it might not earn enough interest from the MBS (which have longer-term maturity dates) to cover those payments. If the short-term rates are lower, it will have more breathing room between those two yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种所谓的 “回购交易” 中，AGNC 的利润或损失与其支付给对手方的贷款利息与其在 MBS 上获得的收益之间的差额挂钩。如果短期利率较高，它需要向对手方支付更高的利息，但可能无法从 MBS（其到期日较长）中获得足够的利息来覆盖这些支付。如果短期利率较低，它将在这两种收益之间有更多的缓冲空间。</p>
</div><h2>Why did AGNC's stock decline over the past year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 AGNC 的股票在过去一年中下跌？</h2>
</div><p>Based on those facts, the Fed's interest rate cuts should have boosted AGNC's profits. But its stock still dropped 6% over the past 12 months as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> advanced 15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据这些事实，美联储的降息应该会提升 AGNC 的利润。但在过去 12 个月中，其股票仍然下跌了 6%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数上涨了 15%。</p>
</div><p>AGNC gauges its profit growth through its &#34;net spread and dollar roll income&#34; per share. The net spread is the profit it books from its aforementioned repo transactions, while its dollar roll income comes from buying TBA contracts (agreements to buy a pool of MBS at a future date) and selling them before the settlement date to buy additional TBA contracts. In these &#34;rolling&#34; transactions, AGNC constantly sells the contracts but never actually buys the underlying MBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 通过其每股 “净利差和美元滚动收入” 来衡量其利润增长。净利差是其从上述回购交易中获得的利润，而美元滚动收入来自购买 TBA 合约（在未来某个日期购买一组 MBS 的协议）并在结算日期之前出售它们以购买额外的 TBA 合约。在这些 “滚动” 交易中，AGNC 不断出售合约，但从未实际购买基础的 MBS。</p>
</div><p>The other way to measure AGNC's value is through its &#34;tangible net book value per share,&#34; which divides the total value of its assets by its outstanding shares. In theory, lower interest rates should have boosted AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income while increasing its tangible net book value per share. But here's what happened over the past year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衡量 AGNC 价值的另一种方式是通过其 “每股有形净资产”，即将其资产总值除以其流通股数。理论上，较低的利率应该会提升 AGNC 的净利差和美元滚动收入，同时增加其每股有形净资产。但在过去一年中发生的情况是：</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 |
| Net spread and dollar roll income per share | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 | $0.44 | $0.38 |
| Tangible net book value per share | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 | $8.25 | $7.81 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| 每股净利差和美元滚动收入 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 | $0.44 | $0.38 |
| 每股有形净资产 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 | $8.25 | $7.81 |</p>
</div><p>Data source: AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：AGNC。</p>
</div><p>Even though the Fed's rate cuts reduced its MBS yields, they didn't reduce the borrowing costs for its repo loans at the same rate. As a result, AGNC's profits fell as it continued to take out loans at higher rates to purchase lower-yielding MBS. Those rate cuts also drove more homeowners to refinance their mortgages at lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储的降息降低了其 MBS 收益率，但并没有以相同的速度降低其回购贷款的借款成本。因此，AGNC 的利润下降，因为它继续以较高的利率借款以购买收益较低的 MBS。这些降息也促使更多房主以较低的利率再融资他们的抵押贷款。</p>
</div><p>That's why analysts expect AGNC's earnings per share (EPS) to drop 15% to $1.59 in 2025 -- which should still easily cover its forward dividend rate of $1.44. For 2026, analysts expect its EPS to finally rise 2% to $1.62 as its interest rates stabilize. AGNC, like other REITs, must pay out at least 90% of its pre-tax income as dividends for a lower tax rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么分析师预计 AGNC 的每股收益（EPS）将在 2025 年下降 15% 至 1.59 美元——这仍然足以覆盖其前瞻性股息率 1.44 美元。对于 2026 年，分析师预计其 EPS 将最终上升 2% 至 1.62 美元，因为其利率趋于稳定。AGNC 与其他 REIT 一样，必须将至少 90% 的税前收入作为股息支付，以享受较低的税率。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy AGNC's stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你今天应该购买 AGNC 的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Even if AGNC's stock rises to $10.50, it would still look cheap at 6.5 times next year's earnings. But if the Fed doesn't follow through on its rate cut plans, its interest rates could remain volatile and gobble up its profits. So while AGNC's stock might be bottoming out, I'd still avoid it and stick with traditional REITs with simpler business models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 AGNC 的股票上涨至 10.50 美元，按明年的收益计算，其市盈率仍为 6.5 倍，看起来仍然便宜。但如果美联储不落实其降息计划，其利率可能会保持波动，从而吞噬其利润。因此，尽管 AGNC 的股票可能已经触底，但我仍然会避免它，选择那些商业模式更简单的传统 REIT。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy AGNC Stock While It's Below a $10.50 Price Target?

- 美联储在 2024 年和 2025 年降息，导致收入投资者转向高收益股。  
- AGNC 股票因利率波动和盈利下滑，过去一年下跌 6%。  
- 分析师预计 2025 年 AGNC 每股收益将下降 15%，但仍可覆盖股息。  

当 AGNC 股票低于 10.50 美元的目标价时，你是否应该购买？