<p>在过去五年中，<strong>礼来</strong>(LLY 1.43%) 的表现超过了大盘，这在很大程度上得益于其在 GLP-1 领域的进展。该领域的重大突破已经带来了令人难以置信的商业成功。</p>
<p>但礼来并未就此止步。最近的临床进展可能为进一步的股市收益奠定基础，并可能使这家制药公司在本十年末保持这种势头。让我们来看看礼来最近的动态，以及这对投资者意味着什么。</p>
<h2>下一代 GLP-1 药物</h2>
<p>礼来的 tirzepatide，分别以 Mounjaro 和 Zepbound 品牌用于糖尿病和体重管理，效果显著——每季度已经创造了数十亿美元的销售额。然而，该药物是每周皮下注射一次。这种给药方式与口服药物相比有几个缺点。</p>
<p>首先，后者的生产成本通常更低。通过口服 GLP-1 药物，制药公司可能能够将成本节省转嫁给消费者，使其比皮下注射的药物更易获得。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQyNDkvcGF0aWVudC10YWtpbmctbWVkaWNpbmUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQyNDkvcGF0aWVudC10YWtpbmctbWVkaWNpbmUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>其次，口服药物对那些厌恶针头和注射的患者来说更为友好。这就是为什么礼来和其他公司在该领域竞相开发新型口服 GLP-1 治疗方案的原因。目前市场上已经有一种这样的治疗：<strong>诺和诺德</strong> 的 Rybelsus，该药物于 2019 年首次在美国获批，用于治疗 2 型糖尿病。</p>
<p>但礼来即将推出自己的口服选择。该公司的 orforglipron 在一系列糖尿病和肥胖的三期研究中表现良好。此外，礼来最近发布了一项针对糖尿病患者的 52 周研究结果，该研究将 orforglipron 和 Rybelsus 进行了对比。在试验中，orforglipron 的最高剂量导致平均血糖降低 1.9%，而 Rybelsus 为 1.5%。此外，orforglipron 还导致平均体重下降 8.2%，而 Rybelsus 为 5.3%。</p>
<p>礼来再次展示了其在这一领域的主导地位，即使是面对拥有先发优势的公司。如果 orforglipron 在年底前获得批准，礼来的股票可能会飙升。尽管这家制药巨头尚未完成 orforglipron 的监管提交，但一些华尔街分析师认为，该药物是美国食品药品监督管理局新推出的一个项目的优秀候选者，该项目将药物申请的审查时间从 10 个月缩短到仅一两个月。</p>
<h2>礼来的估值是否过高？</h2>
<p>没有人会质疑礼来的表现极为出色。在过去的几年中，它在快速增长的体重管理领域中，产生的积极临床数据可能超过了整个行业的总和。制药公司正在收获良好工作的回报；其财务结果不言而喻。第二季度收入同比增长 38%，达到 156 亿美元，而非 GAAP（调整后）每股净收益增长 61%，达到 6.31 美元。礼来甚至提高了 2025 年的全年指引。</p>
<p>然而，该股票最近的交易价格为未来收益预期的 24.7 倍，而医疗行业的平均水平为 16.5 倍。</p>
<p>也就是说，礼来值得一个相当高的溢价。其收入和收益的增长速度已经超过了同行。而且，有充分的理由相信，这家制药领导者将在未来几年（至少）继续保持这种增长，因为它将继续受益于在 GLP-1 市场的开创性工作。根据一些分析师的预测，orforglipron 到 2030 年可能产生高达 127 亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>这款药物会侵蚀礼来其他 GLP-1 产品的销售吗？一点也不会。Tirzepatide 仍在强劲增长，预计到 2030 年将产生近 620 亿美元的收入，这在行业中是前所未有的。几年前，一些分析师预测 tirzepatide 的峰值将达到 250 亿美元，这已经相当令人印象深刻。它已经在上市三年后，今年就有望超过这个数字。礼在 GLP-1 市场的成功是显著的，并应继续推动稳健的收入增长。</p>
<p>此外，还有其他几款产品将作出贡献。礼来的阿尔茨海默病药物 Kisunla 几乎没有引起任何关注，但它也可能实现重磅药物的地位，Ebglyss 作为一种新的湿疹治疗药物也可能如此。</p>
<p>礼来的卓越业绩和前景证明了其估值的合理性，为公司留下了充足的上行空间。尽管基于 orforglipron 显示其优于 Rybelsus 的最近临床试验数据，股票可能不会飙升，除非它在年底前获得监管批准。但礼来在未来五年内仍然有望实现超越市场的回报。</p>

礼来

<p>礼来的 GLP-1 药物最近取得了显著进展，特别是其口服药物 orforglipron 的良好结果，可能会显著提升其股票。该公司在收入方面实现了大幅增长，第二季度收入增长 38%，达到 156 亿美元。分析师预测，orforglipron 到 2030 年可能产生 127 亿美元的收入，进一步补充其现有药物 tirzepatide 的成功。尽管估值较高，但礼来的强劲表现和未来前景表明，特别是在 orforglipron 在年底前获得监管批准的情况下，继续在市场上表现优异的潜力依然存在</p>

<p>Over the past five years, <strong>Eli Lilly</strong>(LLY 1.43%) has outperformed the broader market, largely thanks to its progress in the GLP-1 arena. Its major breakthroughs in the field are already leading to incredible commercial success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，<strong>礼来</strong>(LLY 1.43%) 的表现超过了大盘，这在很大程度上得益于其在 GLP-1 领域的进展。该领域的重大突破已经带来了令人难以置信的商业成功。</p>
</div><p>But Lilly isn't done just yet. Recent clinical developments may set the stage for further stock-market gains, and potentially allow the drugmaker to maintain that momentum through the end of the decade. Let's find out what Eli Lilly has been up to, and what that means for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但礼来并未就此止步。最近的临床进展可能为进一步的股市收益奠定基础，并可能使这家制药公司在本十年末保持这种势头。让我们来看看礼来最近的动态，以及这对投资者意味着什么。</p>
</div><h2>The next generation of GLP-1 medicines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下一代 GLP-1 药物</h2>
</div><p>Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, marketed under the brands Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight management, is highly effective -- and generating billions of dollars in sales per quarter already. However, the medicine is administered subcutaneously once a week. This route has several drawbacks compared to oral pills.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来的 tirzepatide，分别以 Mounjaro 和 Zepbound 品牌用于糖尿病和体重管理，效果显著——每季度已经创造了数十亿美元的销售额。然而，该药物是每周皮下注射一次。这种给药方式与口服药物相比有几个缺点。</p>
</div><p>First, the latter are often cheaper to manufacture. With an oral GLP-1 medicine, drugmakers might be able to pass cost savings onto consumers, making them more accessible than their subcutaneous counterparts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，后者的生产成本通常更低。通过口服 GLP-1 药物，制药公司可能能够将成本节省转嫁给消费者，使其比皮下注射的药物更易获得。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQyNDkvcGF0aWVudC10YWtpbmctbWVkaWNpbmUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834249%2Fpatient-taking-medicine.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Second, oral pills are easier on patients who abhor needles and injections. That's why Lilly and other companies in the field have been racing to develop novel oral GLP-1 therapies. There is already one such treatment on the market: <strong>Novo Nordisk</strong>'s Rybelsus, which was first approved in the U.S. in 2019 and is indicated for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，口服药物对那些厌恶针头和注射的患者来说更为友好。这就是为什么礼来和其他公司在该领域竞相开发新型口服 GLP-1 治疗方案的原因。目前市场上已经有一种这样的治疗：<strong>诺和诺德</strong> 的 Rybelsus，该药物于 2019 年首次在美国获批，用于治疗 2 型糖尿病。</p>
</div><p>But Eli Lilly is on the verge of launching its own oral option. The company's orforglipron performed well in a series of phase 3 studies in diabetes and obesity. What's more, Lilly recently released results from a 52-week study in diabetes patients that pitted orforglipron and Rybelsus head-to-head. During the trial, the highest dose of orforglipron resulted in an average blood-sugar reduction of 1.9%, compared to 1.5% for Rybelsus. Additionally, orforglipron induced an average weight loss of 8.2%, versus 5.3% for Rybelsus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但礼来即将推出自己的口服选择。该公司的 orforglipron 在一系列糖尿病和肥胖的三期研究中表现良好。此外，礼来最近发布了一项针对糖尿病患者的 52 周研究结果，该研究将 orforglipron 和 Rybelsus 进行了对比。在试验中，orforglipron 的最高剂量导致平均血糖降低 1.9%，而 Rybelsus 为 1.5%。此外，orforglipron 还导致平均体重下降 8.2%，而 Rybelsus 为 5.3%。</p>
</div><p>Once again, Lilly is showing its dominance in this area, even against the company with a first-mover advantage. And if orforglipron is approved by year-end, Eli Lilly's shares could soar. Although the pharmaceutical giant has yet to complete regulatory submissions for orforglipron, some Wall Street analysts believe that the medicine is an excellent candidate for a new program launched by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which reduces the 10-month review time for drug applications to a mere one or two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来再次展示了其在这一领域的主导地位，即使是面对拥有先发优势的公司。如果 orforglipron 在年底前获得批准，礼来的股票可能会飙升。尽管这家制药巨头尚未完成 orforglipron 的监管提交，但一些华尔街分析师认为，该药物是美国食品药品监督管理局新推出的一个项目的优秀候选者，该项目将药物申请的审查时间从 10 个月缩短到仅一两个月。</p>
</div><h2>Is Lilly overvalued?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>礼来的估值是否过高？</h2>
</div><p>No one would question that Eli Lilly is performing extremely well. In the past couple of years, it has arguably produced more positive clinical data in the rapidly growing field of weight management than the rest of the industry combined. And the drugmaker is reaping the rewards of a job well done; its financial results speak for themselves. Second-quarter revenue jumped by 38% year over year to $15.6 billion, while non-GAAP (adjusted) net earnings per share grew 61% to $6.31. Lilly even increased its guidance for the full year 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有人会质疑礼来的表现极为出色。在过去的几年中，它在快速增长的体重管理领域中，产生的积极临床数据可能超过了整个行业的总和。制药公司正在收获良好工作的回报；其财务结果不言而喻。第二季度收入同比增长 38%，达到 156 亿美元，而非 GAAP（调整后）每股净收益增长 61%，达到 6.31 美元。礼来甚至提高了 2025 年的全年指引。</p>
</div><p>However, the stock was recently trading at 24.7 times forward earnings estimates, while the average for the healthcare industry is 16.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该股票最近的交易价格为未来收益预期的 24.7 倍，而医疗行业的平均水平为 16.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>That said, Eli Lilly is worth a hefty premium. Its revenue and earnings are already growing faster than those of its peers. And there are good reasons to believe the pharmaceutical leader will keep that up through the next few years (at the very least), as it continues to benefit from its groundbreaking work in the GLP-1 market. According to some analysts, orforglipron could generate as much as $12.7 billion in revenue by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，礼来值得一个相当高的溢价。其收入和收益的增长速度已经超过了同行。而且，有充分的理由相信，这家制药领导者将在未来几年（至少）继续保持这种增长，因为它将继续受益于在 GLP-1 市场的开创性工作。根据一些分析师的预测，orforglipron 到 2030 年可能产生高达 127 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>Will this medicine cannibalize sales from Lilly's other GLP-1 products? Not at all. Tirzepatide is still growing strongly and could generate nearly $62 billion in revenue by 2030, a figure unheard-of in the industry. A few years ago, some analysts predicted that tirzepatide would peak at $25 billion, which would have been pretty impressive. It's already set to eclipse that number this year, just three years after it first hit the market. Lilly's success in the GLP-1 market has been remarkable and should continue driving solid top-line growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这款药物会侵蚀礼来其他 GLP-1 产品的销售吗？一点也不会。Tirzepatide 仍在强劲增长，预计到 2030 年将产生近 620 亿美元的收入，这在行业中是前所未有的。几年前，一些分析师预测 tirzepatide 的峰值将达到 250 亿美元，这已经相当令人印象深刻。它已经在上市三年后，今年就有望超过这个数字。礼在 GLP-1 市场的成功是显著的，并应继续推动稳健的收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, several other products will contribute. Lilly's Alzheimer's disease medicine Kisunla has grabbed barely any headlines, but it could also achieve blockbuster status, as could Ebglyss, a new treatment for eczema.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，还有其他几款产品将作出贡献。礼来的阿尔茨海默病药物 Kisunla 几乎没有引起任何关注，但它也可能实现重磅药物的地位，Ebglyss 作为一种新的湿疹治疗药物也可能如此。</p>
</div><p>Eli Lilly's outstanding results and prospects justify its valuation, leaving plenty of upside for the company. The stock might not soar based on the recent clinical trial data for orforglipron showing its superiority to Rybelsus unless it leads to regulatory approval by year-end. But Lilly still looks likely to deliver market-beating returns over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来的卓越业绩和前景证明了其估值的合理性，为公司留下了充足的上行空间。尽管基于 orforglipron 显示其优于 Rybelsus 的最近临床试验数据，股票可能不会飙升，除非它在年底前获得监管批准。但礼来在未来五年内仍然有望实现超越市场的回报。</p>
</div>

这些 GLP-1 试验结果是否会让礼来的股票大幅上涨？