<p>投资者们长期以来一直在寻找下一个 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.94%)。这并不奇怪。自 2010 年以来，特斯拉的股价已经上涨了超过 34,000%。</p>
<p>目前最受欢迎的两只电动车（EV）股票是 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -0.92%) 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 4.49%)。这两者与特斯拉有相似之处，但今天只有一只股票看起来是明确的赢家。让我们来确定是哪一只。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ3MTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMTU4OTE2Mi0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ3MTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMTU4OTE2Mi0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉是如何成为一个 1.3 万亿美元的企业的</h2>
<p>但首先让我们看看行业领导者。特斯拉是如何成为有史以来最伟大的投资之一的？今天支撑公司估值的有两个主要支柱。</p>
<p>第一个是特斯拉在电动车领域的主导地位。去年，全球没有任何公司生产的电池电动汽车超过特斯拉。它是如何做到的？只需看看特斯拉的生产统计数据。超过 90% 的特斯拉生产来自于两款车型：Model 3 和 Model Y。</p>
<p>这两款车型的起售价都在 50,000 美元以下，这并非巧合。近 70% 的美国汽车买家希望在下一次购车中花费少于 50,000 美元。将车辆以低于这个价格点推向市场至关重要，尽管大多数电动车生产商在实现这一目标上都遇到了困难。</p>
<p>目前，Rivian 和 Lucid 都没有任何可负担的车型在售。但这可能会在明年发生变化，当 Rivian 开始生产三款新车型时，所有车型的起售价都应低于 50,000 美元。Lucid 多年来一直在预告新的可负担车型，但实际交付可能要到 2027 年才能开始。</p>
<p>支撑特斯拉庞大估值的第二个支柱是其在机器人出租车等巨大增长领域的曝光。一些专家认为这可能是一个 5 万亿到 10 万亿美元的机会。一位华尔街分析师甚至认为，仅基于机器人出租车的增长，特斯拉的估值将在 2026 年底飙升至 2 万亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管收入下降，特斯拉的股价仍以 15.8 倍的销售额交易。与此同时，Rivian 的股价仅以 3.7 倍的销售额交易，而 Lucid 的股价大约以 7.6 倍的销售额交易。为什么特斯拉的股票会有如此高的溢价？可能的原因是特斯拉能够追求像机器人出租车这样的巨大增长机会，即使这种增长在今天仍然是假设性的。</p>
<p>目前，Lucid 和 Rivian 都没有计划自己运营机器人出租车服务。但 Lucid 确实与 <strong>Uber Technologies</strong> 建立了合作关系，向其提供 20,000 辆车辆，以支持该公司的机器人出租车业务。与此同时，Rivian 在其机器人出租车计划上相对保持沉默，尽管该公司在自动驾驶功能上进行了大量投资。</p>
<h2>Rivian 或 Lucid 会成为下一个特斯拉吗？</h2>
<p>在模仿特斯拉的崛起时，两个关键似乎是生产低成本车辆和追求像机器人出租车这样的巨大增长机会。Rivian 在前者上占据领先地位，而 Lucid 在后者上似乎占据领先地位。从投资的角度来看，今天哪只股票更好？Rivian 在这里看起来是赢家。</p>
<p>不要误解我的意思：Lucid 在机器人出租车市场的曝光令人兴奋。但该公司仅仅是供应商，而不是运营商。与特斯拉或 Uber 这样的机器人出租车运营商相比，它的收益要少得多。该公司还跳过了特斯拉增长计划中的一个步骤：将可负担的车辆推向市场。</p>
<p>这正是 Rivian 的重大优势。该公司预计到 2026 年初将有可负担的车辆上路。管理层非常明确地表示，生产计划保持在轨道上。然而，Lucid 提供的细节要少得多。与此同时，其相对较小的资本获取能力可能会阻碍其扩大生产的能力。</p>
<p>由于 Rivian 的股价在市销率上比 Lucid 低 50%，我将坚持选择这只在未来一年有更明确增长路径的便宜股票。</p>

LCID

RIVN

<p>投资者正在将 Rivian Automotive 和 Lucid Group 作为潜在的电动车（EV）股票与特斯拉进行比较。Rivian 计划在 2026 年之前生产价格低于 50,000 美元的经济型车型，而 Lucid 的经济型车型可能要到 2027 年才能推出。Rivian 在生产低成本车辆方面处于领先地位，而 Lucid 则与 Uber 合作提供机器人出租车服务。然而，由于 Rivian 的增长路径更清晰且市销率低于 Lucid，因此被视为更好的投资选择</p>

<p>Investors have long searched for the next <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.94%). It's no wonder why. Since 2010, Tesla shares have increased in value by more than 34,000%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者们长期以来一直在寻找下一个 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.94%)。这并不奇怪。自 2010 年以来，特斯拉的股价已经上涨了超过 34,000%。</p>
</div><p>Two of the most popular electric vehicle (EV) stocks today are <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -0.92%) and <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 4.49%). Both have similarities to Tesla, but only one stock looks like a clear winner today. Let's determine which one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前最受欢迎的两只电动车（EV）股票是 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -0.92%) 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 4.49%)。这两者与特斯拉有相似之处，但今天只有一只股票看起来是明确的赢家。让我们来确定是哪一只。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ3MTQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMTU4OTE2Mi0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834714%2Fgettyimages-2031589162-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>This is how Tesla became a $1.3 trillion business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉是如何成为一个 1.3 万亿美元的企业的</h2>
</div><p>But first let's look at the industry leader. How did Tesla become one of the greatest investments of all time? There are two major pillars supporting the company's valuation today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但首先让我们看看行业领导者。特斯拉是如何成为有史以来最伟大的投资之一的？今天支撑公司估值的有两个主要支柱。</p>
</div><p>The first is Tesla's dominant position in the EV space. Last year, no company in the world produced more battery-powered electric vehicles than Tesla. How did it get this way? Just take a look at Tesla's production statistics. More than 90% of Tesla's production stemmed from just two models: The Model 3 and the Model Y.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是特斯拉在电动车领域的主导地位。去年，全球没有任何公司生产的电池电动汽车超过特斯拉。它是如何做到的？只需看看特斯拉的生产统计数据。超过 90% 的特斯拉生产来自于两款车型：Model 3 和 Model Y。</p>
</div><p>It's no coincidence that both of these models have starting prices under $50,000. Nearly 70% of American car buyers are looking to spend less than $50,000 on their next vehicle purchase. Getting vehicles to market under this price point is critical, though most EV producers have struggled to achieve this goal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两款车型的起售价都在 50,000 美元以下，这并非巧合。近 70% 的美国汽车买家希望在下一次购车中花费少于 50,000 美元。将车辆以低于这个价格点推向市场至关重要，尽管大多数电动车生产商在实现这一目标上都遇到了困难。</p>
</div><p>For now, neither Rivian nor Lucid has any affordable models for sale. But that could change as early as next year when Rivian starts production of three new vehicles, all of which should have starting prices under $50,000. Lucid has teased new affordable models for years, but actual deliveries likely won't begin until 2027 at the earliest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，Rivian 和 Lucid 都没有任何可负担的车型在售。但这可能会在明年发生变化，当 Rivian 开始生产三款新车型时，所有车型的起售价都应低于 50,000 美元。Lucid 多年来一直在预告新的可负担车型，但实际交付可能要到 2027 年才能开始。</p>
</div><p>The second pillar underpinning Tesla's gargantuan valuation is its exposure to massive growth areas like robotaxis. Some experts believe this could be a $5 trillion to $10 trillion opportunity. One Wall Street analyst even thinks that Tesla's valuation will soar to $2 trillion by the end of 2026 based on robotaxi growth alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支撑特斯拉庞大估值的第二个支柱是其在机器人出租车等巨大增长领域的曝光。一些专家认为这可能是一个 5 万亿到 10 万亿美元的机会。一位华尔街分析师甚至认为，仅基于机器人出租车的增长，特斯拉的估值将在 2026 年底飙升至 2 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Tesla shares trade at 15.8 times sales despite declining revenue. Rivian, meanwhile, trades at just 3.7 times sales, while Lucid shares trade at roughly 7.6 times sales. Why such a premium for Tesla stock? The likely reason is Tesla's ability to pursue huge growth opportunities like robotaxis, even if that growth remains hypothetical today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管收入下降，特斯拉的股价仍以 15.8 倍的销售额交易。与此同时，Rivian 的股价仅以 3.7 倍的销售额交易，而 Lucid 的股价大约以 7.6 倍的销售额交易。为什么特斯拉的股票会有如此高的溢价？可能的原因是特斯拉能够追求像机器人出租车这样的巨大增长机会，即使这种增长在今天仍然是假设性的。</p>
</div><p>For now, neither Lucid nor Rivian has any plans to operate a robotaxi service themselves. But Lucid does have a partnership with <strong>Uber Technologies</strong> to supply it with 20,000 vehicles to power that company's robotaxi business. Rivian, meanwhile, has been fairly quiet about its robotaxi plans, though the company has invested heavily in autonomous driving features.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，Lucid 和 Rivian 都没有计划自己运营机器人出租车服务。但 Lucid 确实与 <strong>Uber Technologies</strong> 建立了合作关系，向其提供 20,000 辆车辆，以支持该公司的机器人出租车业务。与此同时，Rivian 在其机器人出租车计划上相对保持沉默，尽管该公司在自动驾驶功能上进行了大量投资。</p>
</div><h2>Will Rivian or Lucid become the next Tesla?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rivian 或 Lucid 会成为下一个特斯拉吗？</h2>
</div><p>When it comes to mimicking Tesla's rise, the two keys seem to be the production of low-cost vehicles and the ability to pursue massive growth opportunities like robotaxis. Rivian has a lead in the former category, while Lucid seemingly has a lead in the latter category. From an investment standpoint, which is the better stock today? Rivian looks like the winner here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在模仿特斯拉的崛起时，两个关键似乎是生产低成本车辆和追求像机器人出租车这样的巨大增长机会。Rivian 在前者上占据领先地位，而 Lucid 在后者上似乎占据领先地位。从投资的角度来看，今天哪只股票更好？Rivian 在这里看起来是赢家。</p>
</div><p>Don't get me wrong: Lucid's exposure to the robotaxi market is exciting. But the company is simply a supplier, not an operator. It has far less to gain than robotaxi operators like Tesla or Uber. The company also skipped a step in Tesla's master growth plan: Getting affordable vehicles to market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要误解我的意思：Lucid 在机器人出租车市场的曝光令人兴奋。但该公司仅仅是供应商，而不是运营商。与特斯拉或 Uber 这样的机器人出租车运营商相比，它的收益要少得多。该公司还跳过了特斯拉增长计划中的一个步骤：将可负担的车辆推向市场。</p>
</div><p>This is where Rivian has a heavy lead. The company should have affordable vehicles on the roads by early 2026. Management has been very clear that the production schedule remains on track. Lucid, however, has provided far fewer details. Its relatively smaller access to capital, meanwhile, could hinder its ability to scale production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是 Rivian 的重大优势。该公司预计到 2026 年初将有可负担的车辆上路。管理层非常明确地表示，生产计划保持在轨道上。然而，Lucid 提供的细节要少得多。与此同时，其相对较小的资本获取能力可能会阻碍其扩大生产的能力。</p>
</div><p>With Rivian shares trading at a 50% discount to Lucid on a price-to-sales basis, I'm sticking with the cheaper stock that has a more defined growth path in the year to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 Rivian 的股价在市销率上比 Lucid 低 50%，我将坚持选择这只在未来一年有更明确增长路径的便宜股票。</p>
</div>

哪只电动车（EV）股票更好：Lucid 与 Rivian