<p><strong>辉瑞</strong>(PFE 0.64%) 的股息收益率高达 7.1%。这无疑与大盘的 1.2% 收益率以及平均医疗股票的 1.7% 收益率相比，显得相当有吸引力。但辉瑞的高收益率仅仅是因为自 2022 年底以来其股价下跌了 55%。</p>
<p>这种价格下跌并非偶然，这意味着你需要仔细考虑这只高收益股票是否值得加入你的收入投资组合。让我们深入探讨一下，试图找出答案。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNjgvMjNfMDZfMjgtdGhlLXdvcmRzLXNhZmV0eS1maXJzdC13aXRoLWEtcGVyc29uLWdpdmluZy1hLXRodW1icy11cC1zaWduLWluLXRoZS1iYWNrZ3JvdW5kLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNjgvMjNfMDZfMjgtdGhlLXdvcmRzLXNhZmV0eS1maXJzdC13aXRoLWEtcGVyc29uLWdpdmluZy1hLXRodW1icy11cC1zaWduLWluLXRoZS1iYWNrZ3JvdW5kLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>辉瑞的业务是什么？</h2>
<p>辉瑞是全球最大的制药公司之一。它在发现、开发和销售药物方面有着非常悠久和成功的历史，包括处理将有前景的药物批准用于人类使用这一非常困难的任务。它在与其他制药公司竞争方面表现良好，且该业务在短期内不太可能消失。</p>
<p>话虽如此，自 2022 年底以来，辉瑞的股价下跌了令人震惊的 55%。即使是管理良好的企业也会经历困难时期，显然，这对辉瑞来说就是一个困难时期。有两个广泛的问题需要考虑。</p>
<p>首先，药品制造商的看法发生了变化，这种变化是由于 COVID-19 大流行后消费者信任度降低所驱动的。这对辉瑞尤其令人担忧，因为辉瑞恰好生产疫苗，而疫苗在公众领域正成为一个越来越有争议的话题。</p>
<p>这种情绪的转变与辉瑞面临的另一个重要趋势相伴随，但在制药行业中这相对正常。制药公司因药物开发成本而获得新药的临时独占权。当这些药物失去专利保护时，通常会出现仿制药，导致原药物的收入大幅下降。</p>
<p>这在行业中被称为专利悬崖，而辉瑞正接近这样一个悬崖，预计从 2027 年开始，肿瘤药物 Ibrance 将失去专利保护。随后在 2028 年，心血管药物 Eliquis 和 Vyndaqel 也将失去专利保护。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7e8e379b002fe00ec57fc4e3c959d116.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7e8e379b002fe00ec57fc4e3c959d116.png"/></p>
<p>PFE 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>辉瑞正在采取必要的措施</h2>
<p>辉瑞对疫苗的负面看法几乎无能为力，只能等待情绪的转变。考虑到疫苗改善健康结果的悠久历史，这种转变很可能会发生。但公司可以采取措施应对专利悬崖，这基本上要求这家医疗巨头投资于新药。</p>
<p>它的一种方式是进行内部研发。问题在于，研发本质上是一个不均匀的过程，因此成功并不保证，也不太可能在与公司专利到期相符的固定时间框架内展开。最近在肥胖药物领域的一次高调失败就是一个例子。</p>
<p>但还有另一种选择。辉瑞足够大，可以直接收购其他拥有有前景药物的公司。辉瑞最近就这样做了，达成了收购 <strong>Metsera</strong>(MTSR -0.49%) 的协议。该协议规定对 Metsera 的每股预付款为 47.50 美元，总计约 49 亿美元。然而，还有三笔附带付款可能使交易总额增加到每股 22.50 美元，进一步将整体成本提高数十亿美元。</p>
<p>这笔交易的关键目标是获取 Metsera 有前景的药物管线，包括肥胖领域的药物。这对辉瑞的业务是个好消息，管理层基本上正在采取必要措施，以确保公司的长期成功。</p>
<p>然而，在你急于购买高收益的辉瑞股票之前，请考虑两个事实。辉瑞过去 12 个月的股息支付比率高达 90%，这表明股息可能并不像一些投资者希望的那样安全。而且，董事会在 2009 年辉瑞收购 Wyeth 制药后选择削减股息。</p>
<p>680 亿美元的 Wyeth 交易是一次更大的交易，但考虑到如此高的股息支付比率，收购后股息削减的风险不容忽视。同样重要的是要考虑辉瑞正在收购的药物候选者并不保证会成为畅销药，这就是为什么在确定交易价格时采用了收益模型。</p>
<h2>购买业务，而不是股息</h2>
<p>鉴于股价大幅下跌，辉瑞的股票今天具有反弹的吸引力。值得注意的是，管理层和董事会正在采取必要措施，使公司重回正轨，即在新药方面进行投资（无论是内部还是通过收购）。辉瑞很可能最终会重新回到增长轨道上。</p>
<p>但高股息支付比率和削减股息的历史表明，寻求收入的投资者可能应该谨慎行事。这家制药巨头可能并不像你希望的那样安全。</p>

辉瑞

<p>辉瑞的股票自 2022 年底以来暴跌了 55%，尽管其提供了 7.1% 的高股息收益率。这一下降归因于 COVID-19 后消费者对制药公司的信任降低，以及从 2027 年开始关键药物即将到期的专利。辉瑞正在通过内部研发和收购来应对这些挑战，例如最近以 49 亿美元收购 Metsera。然而，由于其 90% 的高股息支付比率和削减股息的历史，投资者在考虑以辉瑞作为收入来源时应保持谨慎</p>

<p><strong>Pfizer</strong>(PFE 0.64%) has a huge 7.1% dividend yield. That certainly compares favorably to the broader market's 1.2% yield and the average healthcare stock's yield of 1.7%. But Pfizer's lofty yield only exists because of a worrying 55% stock price decline since late 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>辉瑞</strong>(PFE 0.64%) 的股息收益率高达 7.1%。这无疑与大盘的 1.2% 收益率以及平均医疗股票的 1.7% 收益率相比，显得相当有吸引力。但辉瑞的高收益率仅仅是因为自 2022 年底以来其股价下跌了 55%。</p>
</div><p>That kind of price decline doesn't happen by accident, which means you need to carefully consider whether this high-yield stock is worth adding to your income portfolio. Let's dig in and try to find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种价格下跌并非偶然，这意味着你需要仔细考虑这只高收益股票是否值得加入你的收入投资组合。让我们深入探讨一下，试图找出答案。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUwNjgvMjNfMDZfMjgtdGhlLXdvcmRzLXNhZmV0eS1maXJzdC13aXRoLWEtcGVyc29uLWdpdmluZy1hLXRodW1icy11cC1zaWduLWluLXRoZS1iYWNrZ3JvdW5kLV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835068%2F23_06_28-the-words-safety-first-with-a-person-giving-a-thumbs-up-sign-in-the-background-_mf-dload.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What does Pfizer do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>辉瑞的业务是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Pfizer is one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. It has a very long and successful history of finding, developing, and selling drugs, including dealing with the very difficult task of getting promising drugs approved for human use. It competes well with other drug makers and it is highly unlikely that the business is going to go away anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>辉瑞是全球最大的制药公司之一。它在发现、开发和销售药物方面有着非常悠久和成功的历史，包括处理将有前景的药物批准用于人类使用这一非常困难的任务。它在与其他制药公司竞争方面表现良好，且该业务在短期内不太可能消失。</p>
</div><p>That said, the stock has fallen a shocking 55% since late 2022. Even well-run businesses go through hard times and, pretty clearly, this is a hard time for Pfizer. There are two broad issues to consider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，自 2022 年底以来，辉瑞的股价下跌了令人震惊的 55%。即使是管理良好的企业也会经历困难时期，显然，这对辉瑞来说就是一个困难时期。有两个广泛的问题需要考虑。</p>
</div><p>First, there's been a shift in the view of drug makers, driven by reduced trust among consumers since the COVID-19 pandemic. That has been particularly troubling for Pfizer, which happens to make vaccines, which are an increasingly contentious issue in the public sphere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，药品制造商的看法发生了变化，这种变化是由于 COVID-19 大流行后消费者信任度降低所驱动的。这对辉瑞尤其令人担忧，因为辉瑞恰好生产疫苗，而疫苗在公众领域正成为一个越来越有争议的话题。</p>
</div><p>The mood shift has come against another important trend for Pfizer, but one that is fairly normal in the pharma space. Drug companies are granted temporary exclusivity on new drugs because of the cost of drug development. When those drugs lose their patent protections generic alternatives can be produced, usually leading to a material drop in revenue for the original drug.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情绪的转变与辉瑞面临的另一个重要趋势相伴随，但在制药行业中这相对正常。制药公司因药物开发成本而获得新药的临时独占权。当这些药物失去专利保护时，通常会出现仿制药，导致原药物的收入大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>This is called a patent cliff in the industry and Pfizer is nearing just such a cliff starting in 2027, when oncology drug Ibrance comes off patent. That will be followed in 2028 with cardiovascular drugs Eliquis and Vyndaqel losing patent protections in 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这在行业中被称为专利悬崖，而辉瑞正接近这样一个悬崖，预计从 2027 年开始，肿瘤药物 Ibrance 将失去专利保护。随后在 2028 年，心血管药物 Eliquis 和 Vyndaqel 也将失去专利保护。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7e8e379b002fe00ec57fc4e3c959d116.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7e8e379b002fe00ec57fc4e3c959d116.png"/></p>
<p>PFE data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PFE 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Pfizer is doing what needs to be done</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>辉瑞正在采取必要的措施</h2>
</div><p>Pfizer can't do much about the negative view of vaccines other than wait for the mood to shift. It likely will, given the long history of vaccines improving health outcomes. But the company can do something about patent cliffs, which basically require the healthcare giant to invest in new drugs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>辉瑞对疫苗的负面看法几乎无能为力，只能等待情绪的转变。考虑到疫苗改善健康结果的悠久历史，这种转变很可能会发生。但公司可以采取措施应对专利悬崖，这基本上要求这家医疗巨头投资于新药。</p>
</div><p>One way it does this is with internal research and development. The problem is that R&amp;D is an inherently lumpy process, so success isn't guaranteed and isn't likely to unfold on a set time frame that coincides with the company's patent expirations. A recent high profile failure came in the obesity drug arena.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它的一种方式是进行内部研发。问题在于，研发本质上是一个不均匀的过程，因此成功并不保证，也不太可能在与公司专利到期相符的固定时间框架内展开。最近在肥胖药物领域的一次高调失败就是一个例子。</p>
</div><p>But there's another option. Pfizer is large enough to simply go out and buy other companies with promising drugs. It did just that recently when it agreed to buy <strong>Metsera</strong>(MTSR -0.49%). The agreement calls for an upfront payment of $47.50 per share for Metsera, or about $4.9 billion in total. However, there are three contingent payments that could add up to $22.50 per share to the deal, increasing the overall cost by billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但还有另一种选择。辉瑞足够大，可以直接收购其他拥有有前景药物的公司。辉瑞最近就这样做了，达成了收购 <strong>Metsera</strong>(MTSR -0.49%) 的协议。该协议规定对 Metsera 的每股预付款为 47.50 美元，总计约 49 亿美元。然而，还有三笔附带付款可能使交易总额增加到每股 22.50 美元，进一步将整体成本提高数十亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The key goal of the transaction is to get access to Metsera's promising drug pipelines, including in the obesity space. This is good news for Pfizer's business and management is, basically, doing what it needs to do to ensure the company's long-term success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔交易的关键目标是获取 Metsera 有前景的药物管线，包括肥胖领域的药物。这对辉瑞的业务是个好消息，管理层基本上正在采取必要措施，以确保公司的长期成功。</p>
</div><p>Before you run out and buy high yield Pfizer, however, consider two more facts. Pfizer's trailing 12-month dividend payout ratio is a lofty 90%, which suggests that the dividend may not be as secure as some investors might like. And the board of directors chose to cut the dividend in 2009 following Pfizer's acquisition of Wyeth Pharmaceuticals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在你急于购买高收益的辉瑞股票之前，请考虑两个事实。辉瑞过去 12 个月的股息支付比率高达 90%，这表明股息可能并不像一些投资者希望的那样安全。而且，董事会在 2009 年辉瑞收购 Wyeth 制药后选择削减股息。</p>
</div><p>The $68 billion Wyeth deal was a larger transaction, but with such a high dividend payout ratio, the risk of a dividend cut following a material acquisition shouldn't be ignored. Also important to consider here is the fact that the drug candidates Pfizer is acquiring aren't guaranteed to be blockbuster drugs, which is why an earnout model was used in determining the price of the deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>680 亿美元的 Wyeth 交易是一次更大的交易，但考虑到如此高的股息支付比率，收购后股息削减的风险不容忽视。同样重要的是要考虑辉瑞正在收购的药物候选者并不保证会成为畅销药，这就是为什么在确定交易价格时采用了收益模型。</p>
</div><h2>Buy the business, not the dividend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>购买业务，而不是股息</h2>
</div><p>Given the steep price decline, there is turnaround appeal in Pfizer's stock today. And notably, management and the board are doing what is necessary to get the company back on track, namely investing (internally and via acquisition) in new drugs. It is highly likely that Pfizer does, eventually, get back on the growth track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于股价大幅下跌，辉瑞的股票今天具有反弹的吸引力。值得注意的是，管理层和董事会正在采取必要措施，使公司重回正轨，即在新药方面进行投资（无论是内部还是通过收购）。辉瑞很可能最终会重新回到增长轨道上。</p>
</div><p>But the lofty payout ratio and a history of cutting the dividend suggests that income seekers should probably tread with caution. This pharma giant may not be as safe a dividend stock as you want it to be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但高股息支付比率和削减股息的历史表明，寻求收入的投资者可能应该谨慎行事。这家制药巨头可能并不像你希望的那样安全。</p>
</div>

Down 55%, Should You Buy the Dip on Pfizer?

- 辉瑞公司股息收益率为 7.1%，高于市场平均的 1.2% 和医疗股的 1.7%。  
- 自 2022 年底以来，辉瑞股价下跌 55%，引发对其高收益股的关注。  
- 辉瑞面临疫苗信任度下降和专利到期风险，投资者需谨慎对待股息安全性。  

辉瑞股价下跌 55%，你是否应该趁机买入？