<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.78%）于 7 月 31 日发布的季度财报导致投资者情绪降温，这一变化至今仍在持续。自报告发布以来，这一 “七大巨头” 成分股的股价波动性加大，过去三个月基本持平。对亚马逊 AWS 云计算部门未来增长的担忧是导致这一情况的关键因素。</p>
<p>对关税对亚马逊传统业务影响的担忧也起到了作用。虽然 AWS 可能是这家科技巨头的主要利润来源，但北美部门，包括公司的美国电子商务业务，仍占其整体业务的相当大一部分。在截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的季度中，1677 亿美元的净销售额中，有 1001 亿美元，约占 60%，来自该部门。北美还贡献了 75 亿美元，约占 192 亿美元总营业收入的 39%。</p>
<p>因此，任何由于关税造成的重大阻力都可能严重影响未来的收益。然而，如果特朗普政府最近的一些关税政策变化可能为亚马逊创造了顺风呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ0ODEvYXVnbWVudGVkLXJlYWxpdHktdmlydHVhbC1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ0ODEvYXVnbWVudGVkLXJlYWxpdHktdmlydHVhbC1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>这可能是事实，因为美国关税法中最近取消了一项 “微不足道” 的豁免。结合另一个关键的电子商务催化剂，这一最新发展可能对亚马逊的股票在长期内有利。</p>
<h2>最近的海关法变化使亚马逊相对未受影响</h2>
<p>多年来，海外电子商务公司能够利用被称为 “微不足道漏洞” 的美国关税豁免，针对价值低于 800 美元的进口货物。因此，这些公司并不是将产品大批量运送到美国再出售给美国客户（并因此支付关税），而是逐个产品单独发货。由于美国海关法的这一特殊规定，像 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 的 Temu 以及 Shein 这样的中国平台能够进入美国市场并避免关税，同时减少建立昂贵的履约网络的需求。</p>
<p>然而，在 5 月，这一竞争优势开始消失。那时，特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，取消了来自中国和香港的货物的这一豁免。Shein 和 Temu 的影响是立竿见影的，两大平台的日活跃用户和每周销售额均出现了两位数的下降。8 月 29 日，针对所有美国进口的豁免被取消，标志着这一漏洞的结束。</p>
<p>Shein 和 Temu 并不是唯一受到海关法变化影响的公司。对于像 <strong>eBay</strong> 和 <strong>Etsy</strong> 这样拥有大量海外直邮商品的美国平台来说，这也是一个阻力。然而，对于亚马逊来说，影响要小得多。由于公司在美国拥有大型仓储和履约运营，亚马逊及其第三方卖家能够适应这一 “新常态”。</p>
<p>此外，除了面临更少的挑战外，亚马逊可能还会从中受益。第三方卖家正在转向公司的履约网络，而 Shein 和 Temu 则将其海外重点从美国转向欧洲。</p>
<h2>短期不确定性超过新旧电子商务催化剂</h2>
<p>取消微不足道漏洞可能对亚马逊的电子商务业务有利，但还有一个更大的潜在催化剂正在进行中。今年迄今为止，该公司已加大力度将生成性人工智能技术整合到其电子商务运营中。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚这些改进是否已经开始改善利润率。虽然亚马逊的北美部门在上个季度报告的营业利润率为 7.5%，相比去年同期的 5.6% 有了很大改善，但请记住，该部门还包括亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的广告业务。再者，上个季度，尽管单个订单数量增加了 12%，但这些订单的运输成本仅增加了 6%。这强烈表明，这家电子商务巨头的自动化努力在降低运营成本方面取得了成效。</p>
<p>在多年的时间框架内，盈利能力的改善可能会非常显著。正如 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师在 2 月份指出的那样，亚马逊向下一代履约中心的转型可能在 2030 年前实现每年 100 亿美元的成本节省。不幸的是，尽管亚马逊在这两个长期催化剂的支持下，但上述短期担忧仍然是人们关注的焦点。</p>
<h2>关注长期前景</h2>
<p>亚马逊计划在 10 月 28 日发布下一个季度的财报。在上次财报中，亚马逊预计总营业收入将在 155 亿到 205 亿美元之间。由于亚马逊在 2024 年第三季度报告的营业收入为 174 亿美元，市场可能会担心亚马逊本季度的营业收入会下降。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚这些电子商务顺风是否能使亚马逊超越 2025 年第三季度的预期。然而，尽管 “好于预期” 的电子商务结果可能再次被亚马逊网络服务（AWS）增长低于预期等负面因素所掩盖，投资者仍应关注长期前景。</p>
<p>在接下来的几个季度中，亚马逊需要缓解对 AWS（其云计算部门）落后于 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 等云竞争对手的担忧。然而，即使这些担忧持续存在，电子商务和数字广告等领域的强劲表现也可能有助于提升投资者情绪。</p>
<p>以 28 倍的未来收益进行交易，与大型科技公司相当，估值扩张可能会面临困难。不过，分析师预计亚马逊明年将实现 15% 的收益增长，仅仅随着收益的增加而上升，可能意味着投资者将获得强劲而稳定的收益。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票在季度财报发布后经历了波动，市场对 AWS 增长和关税对其北美业务的影响表示担忧。最近美国关税法的变化，特别是取消了微小免税漏洞，可能会通过减少来自海外平台如 Shein 和 Temu 的竞争而使亚马逊受益。此外，亚马逊整合生成性人工智能可能会改善利润率并降低成本。尽管这些潜在的长期利益存在，但在公司准备于 10 月 28 日发布下一个财报时，短期的不确定性依然存在</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>'s (AMZN 0.78%) quarterly earnings release on July 31 led to a cooldown in investor sentiment, a shift that has since persisted. Shares in this &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; component have been more volatile since the report's release and are effectively flat over the past three months. Concerns about the future growth of Amazon's AWS cloud computing segment have been a key factor behind this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.78%）于 7 月 31 日发布的季度财报导致投资者情绪降温，这一变化至今仍在持续。自报告发布以来，这一 “七大巨头” 成分股的股价波动性加大，过去三个月基本持平。对亚马逊 AWS 云计算部门未来增长的担忧是导致这一情况的关键因素。</p>
</div><p>Worries about the impact of tariffs on Amazon's legacy business have also played a role. AWS may be the tech giant's main profit center, but the North America segment, which includes the company's U.S. e-commerce business, still represents a significant portion of its overall business. During the quarter ending June 30, 2025, out of $167.7 billion in net sales, $100.1 billion, or just under 60%, came from this segment. North America also contributed $7.5 billion, or around 39%, of $19.2 billion in total operating income during the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对关税对亚马逊传统业务影响的担忧也起到了作用。虽然 AWS 可能是这家科技巨头的主要利润来源，但北美部门，包括公司的美国电子商务业务，仍占其整体业务的相当大一部分。在截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的季度中，1677 亿美元的净销售额中，有 1001 亿美元，约占 60%，来自该部门。北美还贡献了 75 亿美元，约占 192 亿美元总营业收入的 39%。</p>
</div><p>Hence, any sort of major headwind due to tariffs could severely impact future earnings. However, what if some of the latest changes in tariff policy from the Trump administration could be creating a tailwind for Amazon?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，任何由于关税造成的重大阻力都可能严重影响未来的收益。然而，如果特朗普政府最近的一些关税政策变化可能为亚马逊创造了顺风呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzQ0ODEvYXVnbWVudGVkLXJlYWxpdHktdmlydHVhbC1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F834481%2Faugmented-reality-virtual-goods-warehouse.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>That may be the case, with the recent elimination of one &#34;tiny&#34; exemption in U.S. tariff law. Coupled with another key e-commerce catalyst, this recent development may bode well for Amazon shares in the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能是事实，因为美国关税法中最近取消了一项 “微不足道” 的豁免。结合另一个关键的电子商务催化剂，这一最新发展可能对亚马逊的股票在长期内有利。</p>
</div><h2>The recent change in customs law leaves Amazon relatively unscathed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最近的海关法变化使亚马逊相对未受影响</h2>
</div><p>For years, overseas e-commerce companies were able to take advantage of what became known as the &#34;de minimis loophole,&#34; or U.S. tariff exemptions on imported shipments valued at under $800. So rather than ship their products in large batches to the U.S. to then sell to U.S. customers (and pay tariffs on the products as a result), these companies would ship each product individually. Thanks to this quirk in U.S. customs law, China-based platforms like <strong>PDD Holdings'</strong> Temu, as well as Shein, could penetrate the U.S. market and avoid tariffs -- all while minimizing their need to build a costly fulfillment network.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，海外电子商务公司能够利用被称为 “微不足道漏洞” 的美国关税豁免，针对价值低于 800 美元的进口货物。因此，这些公司并不是将产品大批量运送到美国再出售给美国客户（并因此支付关税），而是逐个产品单独发货。由于美国海关法的这一特殊规定，像 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 的 Temu 以及 Shein 这样的中国平台能够进入美国市场并避免关税，同时减少建立昂贵的履约网络的需求。</p>
</div><p>However, in May, this competitive advantage began to disappear. That's when President Donald Trump issued an executive order eliminating this exemption on shipments from China and Hong Kong. The impact on Shein and Temu was immediate, with both platforms reporting double-digit drops in daily active users and weekly sales. On Aug. 29, the exemption was eliminated for <em>all</em> U.S.-bound imports, marking an end to this loophole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 5 月，这一竞争优势开始消失。那时，特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，取消了来自中国和香港的货物的这一豁免。Shein 和 Temu 的影响是立竿见影的，两大平台的日活跃用户和每周销售额均出现了两位数的下降。8 月 29 日，针对所有美国进口的豁免被取消，标志着这一漏洞的结束。</p>
</div><p>Shein and Temu aren't the only companies experiencing headwinds from this change in customs law. For U.S.-based platforms featuring a high volume of overseas direct ship listings, like <strong>eBay</strong> and <strong>Etsy</strong>, this is a headwind as well. For Amazon, however, the impact has been far less significant. Thanks to the company's large U.S.-based warehouse and fulfillment operations, the company and its third-party sellers have been able to adapt to the &#34;new normal.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shein 和 Temu 并不是唯一受到海关法变化影响的公司。对于像 <strong>eBay</strong> 和 <strong>Etsy</strong> 这样拥有大量海外直邮商品的美国平台来说，这也是一个阻力。然而，对于亚马逊来说，影响要小得多。由于公司在美国拥有大型仓储和履约运营，亚马逊及其第三方卖家能够适应这一 “新常态”。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, beyond facing fewer challenges from this change, Amazon may also benefit from it. Third-party sellers are shifting to the company's fulfillment network, while Shein and Temu shift their overseas focus from the U.S. to Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，除了面临更少的挑战外，亚马逊可能还会从中受益。第三方卖家正在转向公司的履约网络，而 Shein 和 Temu 则将其海外重点从美国转向欧洲。</p>
</div><h2>Short-term uncertainty outweighs new and existing e-commerce catalysts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期不确定性超过新旧电子商务催化剂</h2>
</div><p>The elimination of the de minimis loophole may bode well for Amazon's e-commerce business, but there is an even bigger potential catalyst in motion. So far this year, the company has ramped up efforts to integrate generative AI technology into its e-commerce operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>取消微不足道漏洞可能对亚马逊的电子商务业务有利，但还有一个更大的潜在催化剂正在进行中。今年迄今为止，该公司已加大力度将生成性人工智能技术整合到其电子商务运营中。</p>
</div><p>It's difficult to tell whether these improvements have already started to improve margins. While Amazon's North American segment reported operating margins of 7.5% last quarter, a big improvement from the 5.6% reported for the prior year's quarter, remember that this segment also includes Amazon's faster-growing, high-margin advertising business. Then again, last quarter, while the number of individual orders increased by 12%, shipping costs for these orders increased by only 6%. This strongly suggests that the e-commerce giant's automation efforts are proving effective in reducing operating costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚这些改进是否已经开始改善利润率。虽然亚马逊的北美部门在上个季度报告的营业利润率为 7.5%，相比去年同期的 5.6% 有了很大改善，但请记住，该部门还包括亚马逊增长更快、利润率更高的广告业务。再者，上个季度，尽管单个订单数量增加了 12%，但这些订单的运输成本仅增加了 6%。这强烈表明，这家电子商务巨头的自动化努力在降低运营成本方面取得了成效。</p>
</div><p>Over a multiyear time frame, profitability improvements could prove substantial. As analysts at <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> pointed out back in February, Amazon's pivot toward next-generation fulfillment centers could result in $10 billion in annual cost savings by 2030. Unfortunately, while Amazon has these two long-term catalysts in its corner, the aforementioned near-term concerns remain top of mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在多年的时间框架内，盈利能力的改善可能会非常显著。正如 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的分析师在 2 月份指出的那样，亚马逊向下一代履约中心的转型可能在 2030 年前实现每年 100 亿美元的成本节省。不幸的是，尽管亚马逊在这两个长期催化剂的支持下，但上述短期担忧仍然是人们关注的焦点。</p>
</div><h2>Stay focused on the long-term picture</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关注长期前景</h2>
</div><p>Amazon is scheduled to release its next quarterly results on Oct. 28. In the past earnings release, Amazon guided for total operating income of between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion. As Amazon reported operating income of $17.4 billion in Q3 2024, there may be concern that Amazon will report declining operating income this quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊计划在 10 月 28 日发布下一个季度的财报。在上次财报中，亚马逊预计总营业收入将在 155 亿到 205 亿美元之间。由于亚马逊在 2024 年第三季度报告的营业收入为 174 亿美元，市场可能会担心亚马逊本季度的营业收入会下降。</p>
</div><p>Right now, it's unclear whether these e-commerce tailwinds will enable Amazon to exceed Q3 2025 expectations. However, while &#34;better than feared&#34; e-commerce results could again be outweighed by negatives like lower-than-expected Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth, investors should stay focused on the long-term picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚这些电子商务顺风是否能使亚马逊超越 2025 年第三季度的预期。然而，尽管 “好于预期” 的电子商务结果可能再次被亚马逊网络服务（AWS）增长低于预期等负面因素所掩盖，投资者仍应关注长期前景。</p>
</div><p>In the coming quarters, Amazon needs to assuage concerns that AWS (its cloud computing segment) is falling behind cloud competitors like <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong>. Yet, even if these concerns persist, strength in areas like e-commerce and digital advertising may help to lift investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下来的几个季度中，亚马逊需要缓解对 AWS（其云计算部门）落后于 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 等云竞争对手的担忧。然而，即使这些担忧持续存在，电子商务和数字广告等领域的强劲表现也可能有助于提升投资者情绪。</p>
</div><p>Trading for 28 times forward earnings, in line with its big tech peers, multiple expansion may prove difficult. Still, with analysts expecting Amazon to experience 15% earnings growth next year, merely rising in tandem with increased earnings would likely mean strong, steady gains for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 28 倍的未来收益进行交易，与大型科技公司相当，估值扩张可能会面临困难。不过，分析师预计亚马逊明年将实现 15% 的收益增长，仅仅随着收益的增加而上升，可能意味着投资者将获得强劲而稳定的收益。</p>
</div>

This "Minimal" Change Is a Big Deal for Amazon Stock

- 亚马逊的季度财报导致投资者情绪降温，股价波动加剧。  
- AWS 增长前景及关税影响是主要担忧，北美业务仍占重要份额。  
- 新关税政策可能为亚马逊带来长期利好，需关注未来业绩表现。

这一 “微小” 变化对亚马逊股票来说意义重大