<p>今年夏天，一个令人担忧但并不意外的头条新闻引起了投资者的关注：越来越多的年轻美国人放弃了追求拥有房屋的梦想，他们认为全球全面战争发生的可能性更大。然而，货币政策的重大转变可能迫使人们重新思考这一严峻的状况。</p>
<p>根据 Clever Real Estate 的一项调查，21% 的 Z 世代受访者认为，在未来五年内，第三次世界大战爆发的可能性比他们买房的可能性更大。此外，几乎同样比例的受访者认为，他们在这段时间内更有可能中彩票或变得无家可归。</p>
<p>然而，美联储最近提出了一个有趣的变化。9 月 17 日，中央银行将基准利率下调了 25 个基点，降至 4.00%-4.25%，这一举措被许多专家视为几乎是必然的。这是自去年 12 月以来的首次降息。更重要的是，政策制定者暗示可能会进一步放宽政策。</p>
<p>显然，这一举措对房地产市场具有重要意义，特别是对潜在买家和再融资者而言。基本上，温和的货币政策有助于减轻借贷负担，这使得许多潜在买家处于观望状态。然而，针对房屋建筑商和相关子行业的投机者应做好迎接波动的准备。</p>
<p>几位经济学家对滞胀的可能性发出了警告。尽管融资压力可能有所缓解，但通货膨胀依然顽固地高企，劳动力市场之前也经历了负面调整。因此，乐观的投资者在接触房屋建筑商和更广泛房地产生态系统中的其他参与者时需要谨慎。</p>
<p>不过，乐观者也可能略占优势。9 月第三周，初请失业金人数从前一周减少了 14,000，降至 218,000。这个数字与预期的 235,000 相比表现良好。</p>
<p>总体而言，经济状况可能并没有宣传的那么糟糕——这可能在房地产市场的发展中发挥关键作用。</p>
<p><strong>Direxion ETF：</strong> 对于那些真正热衷于房地产及其周边生态系统潜在复苏的投资者，金融服务提供商 Direxion 提供了一种超杠杆的交易所交易基金。基本上，这种金融工具为复杂产品提供了一种易于理解的替代方案。该基金名为 <strong>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares</strong>（NYSE: NAIL），跟踪道琼斯美国精选住宅建筑指数 300% 的表现。</p>
<p>为什么要考虑 3 倍杠杆的基金？从根本上说，NAIL ETF 为投机者提供了便利。与其尝试交易期权市场——这可能具有其独特的复杂性——不如选择 NAIL，它在每个单位中内置了极高的杠杆，可以像其他任何公开交易的证券一样买卖。</p>
<p>另一个被视为理所当然的重要方面是，Direxion ETF 是基于借记的交易。与其他复杂交易不同，这些基金相对简单。所有头寸都从现金流出头寸开始，因为买方需要提前支付借记以获取基金的单位。如果发生市场损失，亏损仅限于交易的总本金。</p>
<p>然而，潜在参与者应意识到相关风险。首先，超杠杆基金的波动性远高于跟踪基准指数（如标准普尔 500）的非杠杆基金。此外，杠杆 Direxion ETF 的设计是为了提供不超过一天的敞口。持有这些工具超过推荐时间可能会使交易者面临因每日复利效应而导致的头寸衰减。</p>
<p><strong>NAIL ETF：</strong> 自年初以来，NAIL ETF 的市场价值已损失约 14%。然而，在过去六个月中，它也上涨了 17%，反映出潜在的上行空间。</p>
<ul>
<li>目前，NAIL ETF 处于一个不寻常的位置，夹在上方的 50 日移动平均线和下方的 200 日移动平均线之间。</li>
<li>在上半年的整体交易量水平相对较低。然而，收购在夏季开始有所增加。</li>
<li>最近，买入量有所下降，恰逢市场价值下滑。然而，整体水平通常高于上半年的水平。</li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片由</em> <em>Oleksandr Pidvalnyi</em> <em>在</em> <em>Pixabay</em> <em>上提供</em> <em>.</em></p>

住房建设 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>最近美联储将基准利率下调至 4.00%-4.25% 可能会影响住房市场，因为这降低了潜在买家的借贷成本。尽管对滞胀和高通胀的担忧依然存在，但初请失业金人数有所减少，这表明经济前景更加乐观。对于对房地产复苏持乐观态度的投资者来说，Direxion 的超杠杆 NAIL ETF 提供了一种接触住宅建筑行业的方式，尽管由于其波动性和短期交易的设计，它带来了显著的风险。今年 NAIL ETF 已经下跌了 14%，但在过去六个月中上涨了 17%</p>

<p>Earlier this summer, a worrying but bluntly unsurprising headline caught the attention of investors everywhere: a growing number of young Americans have given up pursuing homeownership, believing that an all-out global war will have a greater likelihood of materializing. However, a critical shift in monetary policy just might force a rethink of this dire condition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年夏天，一个令人担忧但并不意外的头条新闻引起了投资者的关注：越来越多的年轻美国人放弃了追求拥有房屋的梦想，他们认为全球全面战争发生的可能性更大。然而，货币政策的重大转变可能迫使人们重新思考这一严峻的状况。</p>
</div><p>According to a survey by Clever Real Estate, 21% of respondents from the Generation Z demographic believe that World War III erupting is a more likely future event over the next five years than them buying a home. What's more, almost the same share of respondents believe they're more likely to win the lottery or become homeless in that timeframe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Clever Real Estate 的一项调查，21% 的 Z 世代受访者认为，在未来五年内，第三次世界大战爆发的可能性比他们买房的可能性更大。此外，几乎同样比例的受访者认为，他们在这段时间内更有可能中彩票或变得无家可归。</p>
</div><p>However, the Federal Reserve recently presented an interesting wrinkle. On Sept. 17, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, delivering what many experts thought was a near-certainty. It was the first rate cut since December of last year. More importantly, policymakers signaled that further easing may follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美联储最近提出了一个有趣的变化。9 月 17 日，中央银行将基准利率下调了 25 个基点，降至 4.00%-4.25%，这一举措被许多专家视为几乎是必然的。这是自去年 12 月以来的首次降息。更重要的是，政策制定者暗示可能会进一步放宽政策。</p>
</div><p>Obviously, the move carries significance for the housing market, particularly for prospective buyers and refinancers. Essentially, a dovish monetary policy helps ease the burden of borrowing, which has kept many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Still, speculators targeting homebuilders and related subsectors should be prepared for an eventful journey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，这一举措对房地产市场具有重要意义，特别是对潜在买家和再融资者而言。基本上，温和的货币政策有助于减轻借贷负担，这使得许多潜在买家处于观望状态。然而，针对房屋建筑商和相关子行业的投机者应做好迎接波动的准备。</p>
</div><p>Several economists have sounded the warning regarding the possibility of stagflation. While financing pressures may have been eased, inflation remains stubbornly elevated and the labor market has previously been adjusted negatively. As such, bullish investors do need to approach homebuilders and other players within the broader real estate ecosystem cautiously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几位经济学家对滞胀的可能性发出了警告。尽管融资压力可能有所缓解，但通货膨胀依然顽固地高企，劳动力市场之前也经历了负面调整。因此，乐观的投资者在接触房屋建筑商和更广泛房地产生态系统中的其他参与者时需要谨慎。</p>
</div><p>Still, it's also possible that the optimists may have a slight edge. Initial jobless claims declined by 14,000 from the previous week to 218,000 in the third week of September. This figure bodes well compared to estimates anticipating 235,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，乐观者也可能略占优势。9 月第三周，初请失业金人数从前一周减少了 14,000，降至 218,000。这个数字与预期的 235,000 相比表现良好。</p>
</div><p>Overall, economic circumstances might not be as bad as advertised — and that could play a key role in how the housing market pans out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，经济状况可能并没有宣传的那么糟糕——这可能在房地产市场的发展中发挥关键作用。</p>
</div><p><strong>The Direxion ETF:</strong> For those investors who are truly gung-ho about a potential recovery in real estate and its surrounding ecosystem, financial services provider Direxion offers an ultra-leveraged exchange-traded fund. Basically, this financial vehicle provides an easy-to-understand alternative to exotic products. Called the <strong>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares</strong> (NYSE: NAIL), the fund tracks 300% of the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Direxion ETF：</strong> 对于那些真正热衷于房地产及其周边生态系统潜在复苏的投资者，金融服务提供商 Direxion 提供了一种超杠杆的交易所交易基金。基本上，这种金融工具为复杂产品提供了一种易于理解的替代方案。该基金名为 <strong>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares</strong>（NYSE: NAIL），跟踪道琼斯美国精选住宅建筑指数 300% 的表现。</p>
</div><p>Why bother considering a 3X-leveraged fund? At the core, the NAIL ETF provides convenience for speculators. Rather than attempting to trade the options market — which can feature its own unique complexities — NAIL provides extreme leverage baked into each unit, which can be bought and sold, much like any other publicly traded security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么要考虑 3 倍杠杆的基金？从根本上说，NAIL ETF 为投机者提供了便利。与其尝试交易期权市场——这可能具有其独特的复杂性——不如选择 NAIL，它在每个单位中内置了极高的杠杆，可以像其他任何公开交易的证券一样买卖。</p>
</div><p>Another important aspect that's taken for granted is that Direxion ETFs are debit-based transactions. Unlike other exotic trades, these funds are relatively straightforward. All positions start from a cash outflow position because the buyer is paying a debit upfront to acquire the fund's units. Should a market loss occur, the red ink is limited to the total principle of the trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个被视为理所当然的重要方面是，Direxion ETF 是基于借记的交易。与其他复杂交易不同，这些基金相对简单。所有头寸都从现金流出头寸开始，因为买方需要提前支付借记以获取基金的单位。如果发生市场损失，亏损仅限于交易的总本金。</p>
</div><p>However, prospective participants should be cognizant of the risks involved. Primarily, ultra-leveraged funds are far more volatile than non-leveraged counterparts tracking benchmark indices like the S&amp;P 500. Moreover, leveraged Direxion ETFs are designed for exposure lasting no longer than one day. Holding onto these vehicles for longer than recommended can expose traders to positional decay stemming from the daily compounding effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，潜在参与者应意识到相关风险。首先，超杠杆基金的波动性远高于跟踪基准指数（如标准普尔 500）的非杠杆基金。此外，杠杆 Direxion ETF 的设计是为了提供不超过一天的敞口。持有这些工具超过推荐时间可能会使交易者面临因每日复利效应而导致的头寸衰减。</p>
</div><p><strong>The NAIL ETF:</strong> Since the start of the year, the NAIL ETF has lost about 14% of market value. However, in the past six months, it has also gained 17%, thus reflecting potential upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>NAIL ETF：</strong> 自年初以来，NAIL ETF 的市场价值已损失约 14%。然而，在过去六个月中，它也上涨了 17%，反映出潜在的上行空间。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>At the moment, the NAIL ETF is stuck in an unusual position, sandwiched between the 50-day moving average at top and the 200 DMA at bottom.</li>
<li>For the first half of the year, overall volume levels have been relatively muted. However, acquisitions started to pick up in the summer months.</li>
<li>More recently, buying volume has declined, coinciding with a slide in market value. However, overall levels are generally above those seen in the first half of the year.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>目前，NAIL ETF 处于一个不寻常的位置，夹在上方的 50 日移动平均线和下方的 200 日移动平均线之间。</li>
<li>在上半年的整体交易量水平相对较低。然而，收购在夏季开始有所增加。</li>
<li>最近，买入量有所下降，恰逢市场价值下滑。然而，整体水平通常高于上半年的水平。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Featured i</em> <em>mage by</em> <em>Oleksandr Pidvalnyi</em> <em>on</em> <em>Pixabay</em> <em>.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片由</em> <em>Oleksandr Pidvalnyi</em> <em>在</em> <em>Pixabay</em> <em>上提供</em> <em>.</em></p>
</div>

Monetary Policy Fluctuations Put The Spotlight On Direxion's Ultra-Bull NAIL ETF

- 年轻美国人对购房的信心下降，认为全球战争更可能发生。  
- 美联储降息可能刺激住房市场，借贷成本降低。  
- 投资者需谨慎对待超杠杆基金，风险较高。

货币政策的波动使 Direxion 的 Ultra-Bull NAIL ETF 成为关注的焦点