<p>在过去三年中，<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.08%) 已成为华尔街上最具争议的人工智能（AI）股票之一。</p>
<p>怀疑者常常指出 Palantir 的估值飙升，认为其股价已经超出了基本面的合理水平。然而，多头反驳称，公司在政府和企业客户中的快速采用证明了进一步上涨的合理性。</p>
<p>就在本周，<strong>美国银行</strong> 的股票研究分析师 Mariana Perez Mora 将 Palantir 的目标股价上调至 215 美元——这意味着截至 9 月 25 日的当前交易水平有 20% 的上涨空间。</p>
<p>在这篇分析中，我将分解 Mora 的论点，并将其与另一项近期引人注目的 Palantir 预测进行比较。接下来，我将深入探讨 Palantir 的估值特征，并总结出对 Palantir 股票是否值得购买的平衡看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MTE4MTc1NS0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MTE4MTc1NS0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么华尔街将 Palantir 视为顶级 AI 股票？</h2>
<p>Palantir 的收入和利润增长的陡峭曲线足以吸引投资者的注意。产生强劲的销售是一回事，但维持日益盈利的单位经济则使这家数据挖掘专家在软件即服务（SaaS）行业中处于罕见的地位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，令人信服的财务数据只是故事的一部分。真正让华尔街兴奋的是增长来自_哪里_。Palantir 的 AI 套件——Foundry、Gotham 和 Apollo——是今年多个引人注目的合同的支柱：</p>
<ul>
<li>与美国陆军达成的价值高达 100 亿美元的合同，期限为十年</li>
<li>与美国军方的 Maven 智能系统扩展合同，价值 7.95 亿美元，使总合同价值达到 13 亿美元</li>
<li>与北约的合作，包括与英国的 15 亿美元投资合作</li>
</ul>
<p>如此规模的交易为 Palantir 提供了令人羡慕的收入可见性和长期现金流的稳定性，这些特质通常会要求一个溢价的估值。</p>
<p>Mora 的目标股价上调之所以引人注目，是因为她的理由是：&#34;如果它有效，那就不贵。&#34; 这句话可能是对 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席执行官 Marc Benioff 最近批评 Palantir 软件过于昂贵的微妙回应。</p>
<p>在某种程度上，Mora 的理由与 Jim Cramer 的观点相呼应——他最近认为，按照 40 规则计算，Palantir 股票是便宜的。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的估值：分解增长预期</h2>
<p>对于投资者来说，关键的启示是，一些分析师认为 Palantir 独特的财务动能与加速的合同赢得相结合，足以支持一个历史上较高的倍数。</p>
<p>从下面的图表可以看出，Palantir 当前的市销率（P/S）为 133——这一水平远高于其在 SaaS 领域的同行。从表面上看，这仅仅表明 Palantir 股票相对于可比软件企业要求一个溢价倍数。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，深入挖掘，叙述并没有太大变化。根据华尔街对未来几年收入的共识预测，我计算了隐含的前瞻性 P/S 倍数：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2026 年共识收入预测</th>
<th>2027 年共识收入预测</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>56 亿美元</td>
<td>76 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>隐含前瞻性 P/S 倍数</td>
<td>76.8</td>
<td>56.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>即使 Palantir 完美执行并达到其增长预测，其前瞻性估值仍然远高于其同行今天的交易水平。</p>
<h2>Palantir 股票现在值得买吗，还是已经被定价到完美？</h2>
<p>从这个估值角度来看，Palantir 当前约 4300 亿美元的市值显得有些紧张。对于投资者来说，这提出了一个关键问题：Palantir 的未来增长有多少实际上已经反映在股价中？</p>
<p>如果你问亿万富翁资金经理 Stanley Druckenmiller，答案可能是_全部_。他的基金 Duquesne Family Office 最近清算了在 Palantir 的全部头寸——这可能是为了在股价继续呈抛物线攀升时锁定收益。</p>
<p>在我看来，长期回调似乎是不可避免的。没有哪只股票会永远直线飙升，当 Palantir 最终经历估值重估时，其股价可能会正常化到远低于今天的水平——并且没有快速反弹的保证。</p>
<p>在我看来，Palantir 股票的定价已趋于完美。虽然动量交易者可能会被诱惑继续乘势而上，承受剧烈的波动，但长期投资者明白，建立头寸的合理价格点还有很多。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 已成为一只颇具争议的人工智能股票，分析师们对其估值意见不一。美国银行的 Mariana Perez Mora 将 Palantir 的目标股价上调至 215 美元，暗示有 20% 的上涨空间。该公司强劲的收入增长和重要合同，包括与美国陆军达成的 100 亿美元交易，增强了其吸引力。然而，其高达 133 的市销率引发了对股票是否被高估的担忧。一些投资者，如 Stanley Druckenmiller，已退出其持仓，表明市场可能面临调整。总体而言，Palantir 的定价可能已趋于完美，长期投资者需保持谨慎</p>

<p>Over the last three years, <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.08%) has emerged as one of the most polarizing artificial intelligence (AI) stocks on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.08%) 已成为华尔街上最具争议的人工智能（AI）股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Skeptics often point to Palantir's soaring valuation, arguing that its stock price has raced beyond acceptable levels of fundamentals. Bulls, however, counter that the company's accelerating adoption across government and enterprise customers justifies further upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>怀疑者常常指出 Palantir 的估值飙升，认为其股价已经超出了基本面的合理水平。然而，多头反驳称，公司在政府和企业客户中的快速采用证明了进一步上涨的合理性。</p>
</div><p>Just this week, equity research analyst Mariana Perez Mora of <strong>Bank of America</strong> raised her price target on Palantir to $215 -- implying 20% upside from current trading levels as of Sept. 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在本周，<strong>美国银行</strong> 的股票研究分析师 Mariana Perez Mora 将 Palantir 的目标股价上调至 215 美元——这意味着截至 9 月 25 日的当前交易水平有 20% 的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>In this analysis, I'll break down Mora's argument and compare it to another recent eyebrow-raising call on Palantir. From there, I'll dig into Palantir's valuation profile and wrap up with a balanced take on whether Palantir stock is a buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这篇分析中，我将分解 Mora 的论点，并将其与另一项近期引人注目的 Palantir 预测进行比较。接下来，我将深入探讨 Palantir 的估值特征，并总结出对 Palantir 股票是否值得购买的平衡看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MTE4MTc1NS0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835119%2Fgettyimages-1481181755-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why does Wall Street see Palantir as a top AI stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么华尔街将 Palantir 视为顶级 AI 股票？</h2>
</div><p>The steepening slopes of both revenue and profit growth are enough to capture investor attention when it comes to Palantir. Generating robust sales is one thing, but sustaining increasingly profitable unit economics places the data mining specialist in rare territory within the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的收入和利润增长的陡峭曲线足以吸引投资者的注意。产生强劲的销售是一回事，但维持日益盈利的单位经济则使这家数据挖掘专家在软件即服务（SaaS）行业中处于罕见的地位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0b8cedc72e905196e8d60c80da32772.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Compelling financials are only part of the story, though. What truly excites Wall Street is <em>where</em> growth is coming from. Palantir's AI suite -- Foundry, Gotham, and Apollo -- has been the backbone of several headline-grabbing contracts this year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，令人信服的财务数据只是故事的一部分。真正让华尔街兴奋的是增长来自_哪里_。Palantir 的 AI 套件——Foundry、Gotham 和 Apollo——是今年多个引人注目的合同的支柱：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A deal with the U.S. Army worth up to $10 billion over the next decade</li>
<li>A $795 million expansion of its Maven Smart System with the U.S. Military, bringing the total deal value to $1.3 billion</li>
<li>Partnerships with NATO, including a $1.5 billion investment partnership with the United Kingdom</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>与美国陆军达成的价值高达 100 亿美元的合同，期限为十年</li>
<li>与美国军方的 Maven 智能系统扩展合同，价值 7.95 亿美元，使总合同价值达到 13 亿美元</li>
<li>与北约的合作，包括与英国的 15 亿美元投资合作</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Deals of this magnitude provide Palantir with enviable revenue visibility and long-term cash flow durability, qualities that often command a premium valuation to begin with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此规模的交易为 Palantir 提供了令人羡慕的收入可见性和长期现金流的稳定性，这些特质通常会要求一个溢价的估值。</p>
</div><p>What makes Mora's price target increase stand out is her reasoning that, &#34;if it works, it's not expensive.&#34; This remark may have been a subtle response to <strong>Salesforce</strong> CEO Marc Benioff, who recently criticized Palantir's software as being overly pricey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mora 的目标股价上调之所以引人注目，是因为她的理由是：&#34;如果它有效，那就不贵。&#34; 这句话可能是对 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 首席执行官 Marc Benioff 最近批评 Palantir 软件过于昂贵的微妙回应。</p>
</div><p>In some ways, Mora's justification echoes that of Jim Cramer -- who recently argued that Palantir stock is cheap when measured on its Rule of 40 score.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某种程度上，Mora 的理由与 Jim Cramer 的观点相呼应——他最近认为，按照 40 规则计算，Palantir 股票是便宜的。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's valuation: Breaking down growth expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的估值：分解增长预期</h2>
</div><p>For investors, the takeaway is that some analysts view Palantir's unique blend of financial momentum with accelerating contract wins as enough validation to support a historically elevated multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，关键的启示是，一些分析师认为 Palantir 独特的财务动能与加速的合同赢得相结合，足以支持一个历史上较高的倍数。</p>
</div><p>The key observation from the chart below is that Palantir currently trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 133 -- a level that towers above its peers in the SaaS sector. On the surface, this simply indicates that Palantir stock commands a premium multiple relative to comparable software businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从下面的图表可以看出，Palantir 当前的市销率（P/S）为 133——这一水平远高于其在 SaaS 领域的同行。从表面上看，这仅仅表明 Palantir 股票相对于可比软件企业要求一个溢价倍数。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/17fe142e400ad5ea05bff6625e646ca3.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Digging deeper, however, the narrative doesn't change much. Based on Wall Street's consensus revenue estimates over the next couple of years, I've calculated implied forward P/S multiples:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，深入挖掘，叙述并没有太大变化。根据华尔街对未来几年收入的共识预测，我计算了隐含的前瞻性 P/S 倍数：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2026 Consensus Revenue Estimate</th>
<th>2027 Consensus Revenue Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue</td>
<td>$5.6 billion</td>
<td>$7.6 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Implied forward P/S multiple</td>
<td>76.8</td>
<td>56.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2026 年共识收入预测</th>
<th>2027 年共识收入预测</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>56 亿美元</td>
<td>76 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>隐含前瞻性 P/S 倍数</td>
<td>76.8</td>
<td>56.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data Source: YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Even if Palantir executes perfectly and meets its growth forecasts, its forward valuation still sits well above where its peers trade today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 Palantir 完美执行并达到其增长预测，其前瞻性估值仍然远高于其同行今天的交易水平。</p>
</div><h2>Is Palantir stock a buy now, or is it priced to perfection?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 股票现在值得买吗，还是已经被定价到完美？</h2>
</div><p>Viewed through this valuation lens, Palantir's current market capitalization of roughly $430 billion looks stretched. For investors, this raises a critical question: How much of Palantir's future growth is realistically priced into the stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个估值角度来看，Palantir 当前约 4300 亿美元的市值显得有些紧张。对于投资者来说，这提出了一个关键问题：Palantir 的未来增长有多少实际上已经反映在股价中？</p>
</div><p>If you ask billionaire money manager Stanley Druckenmiller, the answer might be <em>all of it</em>. His fund, Duquesne Family Office, recently liquidated its entire position in Palantir -- likely a move to lock in gains as the stock continued its parabolic climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你问亿万富翁资金经理 Stanley Druckenmiller，答案可能是_全部_。他的基金 Duquesne Family Office 最近清算了在 Palantir 的全部头寸——这可能是为了在股价继续呈抛物线攀升时锁定收益。</p>
</div><p>From my perspective, a prolonged pullback feels inevitable. No stock rallies in a straight line forever, and when Palantir eventually undergoes a valuation rerate, its share price could normalize well below today's levels -- with no guarantee of a quick rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，长期回调似乎是不可避免的。没有哪只股票会永远直线飙升，当 Palantir 最终经历估值重估时，其股价可能会正常化到远低于今天的水平——并且没有快速反弹的保证。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, Palantir stock is priced to perfection. While momentum traders might be tempted to continue riding the wave higher and stomaching sharp volatility, long-term investors understand that there are more reasonable price points to build a position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，Palantir 股票的定价已趋于完美。虽然动量交易者可能会被诱惑继续乘势而上，承受剧烈的波动，但长期投资者明白，建立头寸的合理价格点还有很多。</p>
</div>

1 Monster Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist Before It Soars 20%, According to a Wall Street Analyst

- Palantir Technologies 被视为华尔街最具争议的人工智能股票之一。  
- 分析师提高目标价至 215 美元，暗示 20% 的上涨空间。  
- 未来增长是否已被股价充分反映，成为投资者关注的关键问题。

根据一位华尔街分析师的观点，有一只人工智能（AI）巨头股票值得在其上涨 20% 之前大量买入