<p><strong>开市客</strong>(COST -0.78%) 多年来一直是投资者的增长机器。其寻宝购物体验以及为愿意并能够批量购买的消费者提供的价值，使其仓储商店极受欢迎。即使在多年成功之后，这家折扣零售商仍然有很大的潜力扩展到更多市场，因为其仓库在北美高度集中。</p>
<p>最近，该公司又发布了一份稳健的季度报告。但尽管如此，股票今年的表现却平平无奇。它是否已经到了大幅反弹的时候？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUyNTMvcGVyc29uLXNob3BwaW5nLXdpdGgtdGhlaXItY2hpbGQtaW4tYS13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUyNTMvcGVyc29uLXNob3BwaW5nLXdpdGgtdGhlaXItY2hpbGQtaW4tYS13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>开市客的财务状况依然强劲</h2>
<p>开市客在周四收盘后发布了其 2025 财年第四季度的财报。在截至 8 月 31 日的期间，收入总计为 862 亿美元，略高于分析师预期的 861 亿美元。在底线方面，其每股收益为 5.87 美元，超出了华尔街预期的 5.80 美元。</p>
<p>投资者关注零售商的一个关键指标是可比销售增长，这显示了现有商店与去年同期相比产生的增长。它实际上是一个有机增长率，因为它排除了新开店铺的影响，并且不考虑最近关闭的店铺。开市客在 2025 财年第四季度的可比增长率为 5.7%。特别令人鼓舞的是，它在本土市场之外经历了最强劲的有机增长：美国的增长率为 5.1%，而国际增长率为 8.6%。</p>
<p>尽管公司没有提供新财年的指导，但它表示正在努力在其自有品牌 Kirkland Signature 下提供更多产品，以便为客户提供 “受关税影响商品” 的替代品。这表明它正在尽力适应当前的宏观经济条件。</p>
<h2>为什么开市客的业绩不足以推动股价上涨？</h2>
<p>尽管盈利超预期且财务结果良好，开市客的股票在周五仍下跌了几个百分点。截至周末，该股今年的表现持平。这与 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数形成鲜明对比，后者在 2025 年迄今上涨了 13%。去年情况则截然不同，开市客的股票上涨了 39%，表现优于广泛指数的 23% 涨幅。</p>
<p>开市客今年股票表现不佳，很可能与其已经膨胀的估值有关。在 2024 年经历了非凡的一年后，当前的市盈率（P/E）超过 50。相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的平均股票市盈率为 25。考虑到其温和的增长率，开市客的股票极其昂贵。虽然业务表现良好，但其预期的未来增长在很大程度上已经反映在股价中，因此除非公司完全主导并超出预期，否则发布强劲业绩可能不会给股价带来太大提振。</p>
<h2>股票的高估值使得今天投资开市客变得困难</h2>
<p>投资者对高估值的担忧日益加剧，尤其是在关税影响越来越多消费品价格的情况下。华尔街的担忧是，随着消费者开始感受到更高价格的影响，增长率可能会放缓。考虑到开市客的股票交易在极高的估值下，几乎没有安全边际。这使得预期极高，如果经济条件恶化，股价有很大的下跌空间。</p>
<p>虽然它仍然可能是一个不错的长期投资，但在当前的估值下，我会放弃开市客的股票。还有许多其他合理定价的成长股可供选择。</p>

开市客

<p>开市客报告了强劲的 2023 财年第四季度财报，收入为 862 亿美元，每股收益为 5.87 美元，超出分析师预期。可比销售增长为 5.7%，国际市场增长为 8.6%。尽管取得了这些成绩，开市客的股票却下跌，全年保持平稳，这归因于其超过 50 的高市盈率，而标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率为 25。对高估值和由于关税可能导致的增长放缓的担忧使投资者情绪谨慎，这表明现在可能不是投资开市客的最佳时机</p>

<p><strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST -0.78%) has been a growth machine for investors over the years. Its bargain-hunting experience and the value it offers to consumers who are willing and able to buy in bulk have made its warehouse stores extremely popular. And even after many years of success, the discount retailer still has plenty of potential to expand into more markets, as its warehouses are highly concentrated in North America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>开市客</strong>(COST -0.78%) 多年来一直是投资者的增长机器。其寻宝购物体验以及为愿意并能够批量购买的消费者提供的价值，使其仓储商店极受欢迎。即使在多年成功之后，这家折扣零售商仍然有很大的潜力扩展到更多市场，因为其仓库在北美高度集中。</p>
</div><p>Recently, the company delivered yet another solid quarterly report. But despite this, the stock's performance for the year has been lackluster. Could it be overdue for a big rally?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，该公司又发布了一份稳健的季度报告。但尽管如此，股票今年的表现却平平无奇。它是否已经到了大幅反弹的时候？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUyNTMvcGVyc29uLXNob3BwaW5nLXdpdGgtdGhlaXItY2hpbGQtaW4tYS13YXJlaG91c2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835253%2Fperson-shopping-with-their-child-in-a-warehouse.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Costco's financials remain resilient</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>开市客的财务状况依然强劲</h2>
</div><p>Costco posted its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings numbers after the closing bell on Thursday. For the period, which ended Aug. 31, revenue totaled $86.2 billion -- just ahead of the $86.1 billion that analysts were expecting. On the bottom line, its earnings per share of $5.87 topped Wall Street estimates of $5.80.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客在周四收盘后发布了其 2025 财年第四季度的财报。在截至 8 月 31 日的期间，收入总计为 862 亿美元，略高于分析师预期的 861 亿美元。在底线方面，其每股收益为 5.87 美元，超出了华尔街预期的 5.80 美元。</p>
</div><p>One key metric that investors also focus on for retailers is comparable sales growth, which shows how much growth existing stores generated when compared to the same period a year ago. It effectively is an organic growth rate as it excludes the impact of newly opened stores and doesn't factor in recently closed stores. Costco's comparable growth rate in fiscal Q4 was 5.7%. And what's particularly encouraging is that it has been experiencing its strongest organic growth outside its home market: The growth rate in the U.S. was 5.1%, while international growth came in at 8.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者关注零售商的一个关键指标是可比销售增长，这显示了现有商店与去年同期相比产生的增长。它实际上是一个有机增长率，因为它排除了新开店铺的影响，并且不考虑最近关闭的店铺。开市客在 2025 财年第四季度的可比增长率为 5.7%。特别令人鼓舞的是，它在本土市场之外经历了最强劲的有机增长：美国的增长率为 5.1%，而国际增长率为 8.6%。</p>
</div><p>Although the company did not provide guidance for the new fiscal year, it did say that it was working on offering more products under its private-label Kirkland Signature brand in an effort to give customers alternatives to &#34;tariff-impacted goods.&#34; This suggests it's adapting to the current macroeconomic conditions as best as it can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司没有提供新财年的指导，但它表示正在努力在其自有品牌 Kirkland Signature 下提供更多产品，以便为客户提供 “受关税影响商品” 的替代品。这表明它正在尽力适应当前的宏观经济条件。</p>
</div><h2>Why were Costco's results not enough to give the stock a boost?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么开市客的业绩不足以推动股价上涨？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the earnings beat and favorable financial results, shares of Costco fell by a few percentage points on Friday. As of the end of the week, the stock was flat for the year. That's a stark contrast to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index, which is up 13% so far in 2025. It was a different story last year, when Costco's stock soared by 39%, outperforming the broad index's 23% gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管盈利超预期且财务结果良好，开市客的股票在周五仍下跌了几个百分点。截至周末，该股今年的表现持平。这与 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数形成鲜明对比，后者在 2025 年迄今上涨了 13%。去年情况则截然不同，开市客的股票上涨了 39%，表现优于广泛指数的 23% 涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Costco's underwhelming stock performance this year likely has more to do with its already inflated valuation. After an extraordinary year in 2024, it's now trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of over 50. By comparison, the average S&amp;P 500 stock trades at a P/E of 25. Costco's stock is extremely expensive in light of its modest growth rate. While the business is doing well, a lot of its expected future growth is effectively priced into the stock, so unless the company completely dominates and outperforms expectations, it may not get much of a boost from posting strong results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开市客今年股票表现不佳，很可能与其已经膨胀的估值有关。在 2024 年经历了非凡的一年后，当前的市盈率（P/E）超过 50。相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的平均股票市盈率为 25。考虑到其温和的增长率，开市客的股票极其昂贵。虽然业务表现良好，但其预期的未来增长在很大程度上已经反映在股价中，因此除非公司完全主导并超出预期，否则发布强劲业绩可能不会给股价带来太大提振。</p>
</div><h2>The stock's high valuation makes it hard to justify investing in Costco today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票的高估值使得今天投资开市客变得困难</h2>
</div><p>Investors are growing more concerned about high valuations, especially with tariffs impacting the prices of more and more consumer goods. The fear on Wall Street is that as consumers start to feel the effects of higher prices, growth rates may slow down. Considering that Costco stock trades at an extremely high valuation, it has no margin of safety. That leaves expectations incredibly high, and there's plenty of room for the share price to fall should economic conditions worsen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对高估值的担忧日益加剧，尤其是在关税影响越来越多消费品价格的情况下。华尔街的担忧是，随着消费者开始感受到更高价格的影响，增长率可能会放缓。考虑到开市客的股票交易在极高的估值下，几乎没有安全边际。这使得预期极高，如果经济条件恶化，股价有很大的下跌空间。</p>
</div><p>While it could still be a good long-term buy, at its current valuation, I'd pass on Costco's stock. There are many more reasonably priced growth stocks to choose from.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然它仍然可能是一个不错的长期投资，但在当前的估值下，我会放弃开市客的股票。还有许多其他合理定价的成长股可供选择。</p>
</div>

在发布又一份稳健的盈利报告后，开市客的股票是否会迎来一波上涨？