<p>我在我的投资组合中拥有几十只股票，作为一个通常投资于分红股票、小盘股和对利率敏感的行业（如房地产）的人，我对在降息环境下的投资组合总体持乐观态度。市场的中位预期是未来一年将再进行四次 0.25% 的美联储降息，这无疑可能成为一个积极的催化剂。</p>
<p>然而，有一只我特别期待在 2026 年及以后的股票是 <strong>Rocket Companies</strong>（RKT 1.69%）。不要与制造实际火箭的 <strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong> 混淆，Rocket Companies 是 Rocket Mortgage、Quicken Loans、Redfin 及其他几家公司的母公司。</p>
<p>Rocket 的业务不仅可能成为低利率的主要受益者，而且正在进行一场重大转型，这可能帮助其业务迈上一个新台阶。如果它在 2026 年成为我表现最好的股票，我也不会感到惊讶。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3NDEvYnV5aW5nLWhvdXNlLTIwMjQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3NDEvYnV5aW5nLWhvdXNlLTIwMjQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>收购将开始在业绩中显现</h2>
<p>Rocket 最近收购了以技术为重点的经纪平台 Redfin，这将最大的抵押贷款发起人与流量排名第一的经纪网站结合在一起。这两家公司在简化消费者的房地产交易过程方面做得非常出色，因此将两者结合可能会带来巨大的成功——尤其是考虑到 Rocket 正在为客户通过 Redfin 购买并通过 Rocket 融资提供激励。</p>
<p>该公司预计将在第四季度完成对美国最大的抵押贷款服务公司 <strong>Mr. Cooper Group</strong> 的收购。这将增加近 700 万新的服务客户（Rocket 目前大约有 280 万），除了增加的经常性服务费收入外，还创造了巨大的机会。例如，抵押贷款服务关系使 Rocket 有机会在这些客户最终购买新房或决定再融资时重新吸引他们。</p>
<h2>巨大的机会</h2>
<p>说 Rocket 有一个巨大的增长机会是轻描淡写。美国每年大约有 2 万亿美元的抵押贷款发放，而前 10 大抵押贷款机构的市场份额不到四分之一。因此，即使 Rocket 是行业领导者，仍然有_大量_的市场份额可以争取，特别是如果其创建一站式房地产商店的战略开始获得动力，使整个交易过程更好。</p>
<p>此外，未来几年可能会带来高于典型水平的抵押贷款量。在经历了大约三年的房地产市场几乎停滞后，市场对住房的需求积压已久。许多潜在的首次购房者一直在观望，因为高抵押贷款利率限制了他们的购买能力，还有很多人希望出售自己的房屋并升级，但由于他们的抵押贷款利率远低于今天的利率而感到无处可去。</p>
<p>然后是潜在的再融资热潮。抵押贷款再融资历来是 Rocket 的强项，因为该公司使得提取股权比大多数传统贷款机构方便得多。在 2021 年，Rocket 的发放量大约是现在的_四倍_，而再融资是一个重要原因。</p>
<p>我相信 2026 年可能会是再融资的一个更大年份。美国房主的房屋净值达到了 35 万亿美元——这是前所未有的。许多房主推迟了大型项目，仅仅是因为借用房屋抵押贷款并不划算。如果我们看到抵押贷款利率趋向 5% 的水平，我认为在 2026 年如果美联储再降几次利率，这完全是可能的，那么再融资的数量可能会激增，令许多专家感到惊讶。</p>
<h2>Rocket Companies 会超越我所有其他股票吗？</h2>
<p>我相信 Rocket Companies 有很大的机会成为我在 2026 年最好的投资，但公平地说，这非常难以预测。一方面，我在任何时候拥有 40 到 45 只股票，完全有可能其他股票的催化剂组合会导致其中一只股票飙升。如果那样发生，我当然不会感到不快。</p>
<p>关键是，Rocket 不仅在作为一个对利率敏感的业务方面有顺风，2026 年将是我们看到 Rocket 的一站式房地产平台全面运作的第一年。如果 Rocket 在客户完成整个交易过程时开始获得实质性进展，这可能会为投资者带来巨大的上行空间。</p>

<p>作者对 Rocket Companies (RKT) 表示乐观，认为其可能成为 2026 年的顶级投资，主要受到预计美联储降息和公司持续转型的推动。Rocket 最近收购 Redfin，以及即将收购 Mr. Cooper Group，被视为重要的增长机会，增强了其在抵押贷款领域的市场地位。由于对住房的强烈需求和潜在的再融资热潮，Rocket 有可能利用这些趋势，使其成为作者多元化投资组合中的强有力竞争者</p>

<p>I own a few dozen stocks in my portfolio, and as someone who typically invests in dividend stocks, small-cap stocks, and rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, I'm generally optimistic about my portfolio in a falling-rate environment. The median expectation is for another four 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cuts over the next year, and this could certainly be a positive catalyst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在我的投资组合中拥有几十只股票，作为一个通常投资于分红股票、小盘股和对利率敏感的行业（如房地产）的人，我对在降息环境下的投资组合总体持乐观态度。市场的中位预期是未来一年将再进行四次 0.25% 的美联储降息，这无疑可能成为一个积极的催化剂。</p>
</div><p>However, one stock that I'm particularly excited about for 2026 and beyond is <strong>Rocket Companies</strong>(RKT 1.69%). Not to be confused with the <strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong>, which makes actual rockets, Rocket Companies is the parent company of Rocket Mortgage, Quicken Loans, Redfin, and a few other businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有一只我特别期待在 2026 年及以后的股票是 <strong>Rocket Companies</strong>（RKT 1.69%）。不要与制造实际火箭的 <strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong> 混淆，Rocket Companies 是 Rocket Mortgage、Quicken Loans、Redfin 及其他几家公司的母公司。</p>
</div><p>Not only could Rocket's business be a major beneficiary of lower interest rates, but it is in the middle of a big transformation that could help take its business to the next level. And I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes my best-performing stock in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rocket 的业务不仅可能成为低利率的主要受益者，而且正在进行一场重大转型，这可能帮助其业务迈上一个新台阶。如果它在 2026 年成为我表现最好的股票，我也不会感到惊讶。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3NDEvYnV5aW5nLWhvdXNlLTIwMjQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831741%2Fbuying-house-2024.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Acquisitions will start to appear in the results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收购将开始在业绩中显现</h2>
</div><p>Rocket recently acquired tech-focused brokerage platform Redfin, which combines the largest mortgage originator with the No. 1 brokerage website by traffic. Both companies have done a great job of making their respective parts of the real estate transaction process easier for consumers, so combining the two could be a massive win -- especially considering that Rocket is offering incentives for clients to buy through Redfin and finance through Rocket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rocket 最近收购了以技术为重点的经纪平台 Redfin，这将最大的抵押贷款发起人与流量排名第一的经纪网站结合在一起。这两家公司在简化消费者的房地产交易过程方面做得非常出色，因此将两者结合可能会带来巨大的成功——尤其是考虑到 Rocket 正在为客户通过 Redfin 购买并通过 Rocket 融资提供激励。</p>
</div><p>The company is also expected to close on its acquisition of the largest mortgage servicer in the U.S., <strong>Mr. Cooper Group</strong>, in the fourth quarter. This will add almost 7 million new servicing clients (Rocket already has about 2.8 million), creating tremendous opportunities in addition to the added recurring servicing fee revenue. For example, the mortgage servicing relationship gives Rocket the opportunity to recapture these millions of clients when they eventually buy a new home or decide to refinance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司预计将在第四季度完成对美国最大的抵押贷款服务公司 <strong>Mr. Cooper Group</strong> 的收购。这将增加近 700 万新的服务客户（Rocket 目前大约有 280 万），除了增加的经常性服务费收入外，还创造了巨大的机会。例如，抵押贷款服务关系使 Rocket 有机会在这些客户最终购买新房或决定再融资时重新吸引他们。</p>
</div><h2>A massive opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的机会</h2>
</div><p>To say that Rocket has a big growth opportunity would be an understatement. There are roughly $2 trillion in mortgages originated in the United States in a typical year, and the top 10 mortgage lenders have less than one-fourth of the market. So even though Rocket is a leader, there is <em>plenty</em> of room to gain market share, especially if its strategy of creating a one-stop real estate shop that makes the entire transaction process better starts to gain steam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说 Rocket 有一个巨大的增长机会是轻描淡写。美国每年大约有 2 万亿美元的抵押贷款发放，而前 10 大抵押贷款机构的市场份额不到四分之一。因此，即使 Rocket 是行业领导者，仍然有_大量_的市场份额可以争取，特别是如果其创建一站式房地产商店的战略开始获得动力，使整个交易过程更好。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the next several years could bring an above-typical level of mortgage volume. After about three years of a virtually stagnant real estate market, there is a lot of pent-up demand for homes. Many would-be first-time homebuyers have been on the sidelines, as high mortgage rates have limited affordability, and there are plenty of people who would love to sell their homes and move up, but feel stuck in place because they have a much lower mortgage rate than is available today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，未来几年可能会带来高于典型水平的抵押贷款量。在经历了大约三年的房地产市场几乎停滞后，市场对住房的需求积压已久。许多潜在的首次购房者一直在观望，因为高抵押贷款利率限制了他们的购买能力，还有很多人希望出售自己的房屋并升级，但由于他们的抵押贷款利率远低于今天的利率而感到无处可去。</p>
</div><p>Then there's the potential refinance boom. Mortgage refinancing has historically been Rocket's bread and butter, as the company has made it far more convenient to tap into equity than most traditional lenders. In 2021, Rocket's origination volume was roughly <em>four times</em> what it is now, and refinancing was a big reason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是潜在的再融资热潮。抵押贷款再融资历来是 Rocket 的强项，因为该公司使得提取股权比大多数传统贷款机构方便得多。在 2021 年，Rocket 的发放量大约是现在的_四倍_，而再融资是一个重要原因。</p>
</div><p>I believe 2026 could be an even bigger year for refinancing. American homeowners have $35 trillion in home equity -- more than ever before. Many homeowners have delayed big projects simply because it didn't make good financial sense to borrow against their homes. If we see mortgage rates trend toward the 5% level, which I see as completely possible in 2026 if the Fed cuts rates a few more times, there could be a surge in refinancing volume that surprises a lot of the experts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信 2026 年可能会是再融资的一个更大年份。美国房主的房屋净值达到了 35 万亿美元——这是前所未有的。许多房主推迟了大型项目，仅仅是因为借用房屋抵押贷款并不划算。如果我们看到抵押贷款利率趋向 5% 的水平，我认为在 2026 年如果美联储再降几次利率，这完全是可能的，那么再融资的数量可能会激增，令许多专家感到惊讶。</p>
</div><h2>Will Rocket Companies outperform all of my other stocks?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rocket Companies 会超越我所有其他股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>I believe Rocket Companies has a great chance of being my best investment in 2026, but to be fair, this is extremely hard to predict. For one thing, I own 40 to 45 stocks at any given time, and it's entirely possible that the right combination of catalysts will cause one of the others to skyrocket. And I certainly wouldn't be upset if that happened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信 Rocket Companies 有很大的机会成为我在 2026 年最好的投资，但公平地说，这非常难以预测。一方面，我在任何时候拥有 40 到 45 只股票，完全有可能其他股票的催化剂组合会导致其中一只股票飙升。如果那样发生，我当然不会感到不快。</p>
</div><p>The point is that not only does Rocket have tailwinds as a rate-sensitive business, but 2026 is the first full year we'll see Rocket's one-stop real estate platform in action. If Rocket starts gaining serious traction when it comes to customers completing the entire transaction process through Rocket's businesses, it could result in tremendous upside for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键是，Rocket 不仅在作为一个对利率敏感的业务方面有顺风，2026 年将是我们看到 Rocket 的一站式房地产平台全面运作的第一年。如果 Rocket 在客户完成整个交易过程时开始获得实质性进展，这可能会为投资者带来巨大的上行空间。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Rocket Companies Will Be My Best Investment in 2026. Here's Why.

- 投资者对 Rocket Companies 未来表现持乐观态度，尤其在降息环境中。  
- 公司通过收购 Redfin 和 Mr. Cooper Group，扩大市场份额和客户基础。  
- 预计 2026 年将迎来再融资热潮，可能推动 Rocket 的业绩增长。  

预测：Rocket 公司将在 2026 年成为我最好的投资。以下是原因