<p>当一位新总统上任时，通常会发生一些变化，这些变化可能通过签署法案成为法律或通过行政命令实现。自唐纳德·特朗普总统在八个多月前就职以来，我们见证了一系列对社会保障的调整，以及他标志性的税收和支出法案——“宏伟美丽法案” 的通过。</p>
<p>虽然特朗普的宏伟美丽法案为特定群体引入了一些税收减免，包括从 2025 年到 2028 年为符合条件的老年人提供更高的标准税收扣除，以及在同一四年时间内为符合条件的工人提供小费和加班费的部分扣除，但它也取消了一些重要的福利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>特朗普总统发表国情咨文演讲。图片来源：官方白宫照片。</p>
<p>具体来说，唐纳德·特朗普的法律改变了电动汽车（EV）行业及其主要纯电动制造商的命运，包括 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.61%)、<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -2.15%) 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 0.56%)，截至今天，9 月 30 日。</p>
<h2>电动汽车制造商告别一个重要的诱饵</h2>
<p>在总统的宏伟美丽法案中，税收和信贷调整的清单中有一个新缩短的时间表，结束了消费者在购买符合条件的新电动汽车或插电式混合动力车时获得的 7500 美元税收抵免，以及购买二手电动汽车时获得的 4000 美元抵免。这个电动汽车抵免适用于建议零售价（MSRP）低于 80,000 美元的新面包车、SUV 和卡车，以及 MSRP 不超过 55,000 美元的新轿车。</p>
<p>尽管这个抵免（正式称为清洁车辆抵免）最初计划在 2032 年结束，但根据《通货膨胀削减法》，唐纳德·特朗普的宏伟美丽法案今天（9 月 30 日）结束了这个新的电动汽车购买抵免。今天之后购买的符合条件的新车辆将不再有资格获得 7500 美元的抵免。</p>
<p>这个电动汽车抵免适用于特斯拉销售的相当大比例的车辆，包括其 Model 3 轿车、全轮驱动的 Model X SUV、单电机和双电机的 Cybertruck，以及多种型号的 Model Y SUV。虽然 Rivian 和 Lucid 的电动汽车通常定价高于税收抵免结束的 MSRP 范围，但这两家公司一直在通过即将推出的车型租赁来利用 7500 美元的电动汽车抵免。</p>
<p>这个电动汽车抵免就像一个悬而未决的诱饵，使纯电动汽车制造商在与内燃机（ICE）车辆的价格竞争中更具竞争力。由于全国范围内的电动汽车充电基础设施仍然相对不足，降低传统内燃机车辆的价格被视为一种近乎必要的策略。</p>
<p>没有了这种前期成本优势，未来的买家可能会选择传统的汽油和柴油动力车辆，因为内燃机的加油基础设施更为普遍，机会成本也更低。与内燃机车辆加油只需几分钟相比，充电电动汽车可能需要一个小时到一天的时间，具体取决于使用的充电器类型。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>但等等——还有更多坏消息</h2>
<p>然而，结束这一激励购买电动汽车的丰厚税收抵免并不是唐纳德·特朗普的宏伟美丽法案对纯电动汽车制造商造成干扰的唯一方式。</p>
<p>当总统在 2025 年 7 月 4 日签署他的标志性税收和支出法案成为法律时，结束了企业平均燃油经济性（CAFE）罚款，并追溯性地取消了 2022 年及所有后续年份的罚款。</p>
<p>CAFE 法规代表了车辆在每加仑燃料上必须行驶的标准。这些数据由国家公路交通安全管理局设定，旨在促进更高燃油效率的车辆，并减少对化石燃料的依赖。未能满足这些标准的汽车制造商将面临罚款。由于特朗普的法律取消了 CAFE 的民事处罚，汽车制造商不再有经济动力去满足高得离谱的每加仑英里数目标。</p>
<p>这几乎肯定会对特斯拉、Rivian Automotive 和 Lucid Group 的盈利能力产生不利影响。</p>
<p>政府机构向这些纯电动汽车制造商提供汽车监管信用，这些制造商将这些税收抵免出售给未达到合规目标的传统汽车制造商。对于特斯拉而言，出售这些税收抵免在其盈利能力中发挥了关键作用。如果没有监管信用，埃隆·马斯克的公司在 2025 年第一季度将报告税前亏损。</p>
<p>随着宏伟美丽法案取消了 CAFE 法规的约束，美国汽车监管信用的市场将受到严重打击。这可能暴露出华尔街的电动汽车宠儿特斯拉一直在持续地从不可持续和/或非创新的来源中产生超过一半的税前收入，例如出售汽车监管信用和从现金中获得的利息收入。</p>
<p>这也将减少 Rivian 和 Lucid 的监管税收抵免收入。尽管特斯拉在过去五年中至少持续盈利（得益于汽车监管信用），但 Rivian 和 Lucid 在扩大运营并试图在汽车市场中开辟自己独特的利基时，仍然在不断亏损。尽管这两家公司拥有可观的现金储备和知名的金融支持，但长期成功远非保证。</p>
<p>虽然我不会说唐纳德·特朗普对电动车行业造成了致命打击，但他的行为几乎肯定会使竞争者减少，并使纯电动车制造商与传统内燃机汽车竞争变得更加困难。</p>

LCID

特斯拉

RIVN

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特朗普总统最近的税收和支出法案对电动车（EV）行业产生了重大影响，特别是对特斯拉、Rivian 和 Lucid。该法案取消了对新电动车购买的 7500 美元税收抵免，这对使电动车在与传统车辆竞争时至关重要。此外，它还取消了未达到企业平均燃油经济性（CAFE）标准的罚款，从而减少了汽车制造商生产燃油高效车辆的财务激励。这一变化可能会对这些电动车制造商的盈利能力产生不利影响，尤其是特斯拉，因为特斯拉依赖于销售监管信用来获得收入</p>

<p>When a new president enters office, it's not uncommon for changes to take place, either through the signing of bills into law or via executive orders. Since President Donald Trump was inaugurated a little over eight months ago, we've witnessed a slew of adjustments made to Social Security, as well as the passage of his flagship tax and spending law, the &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当一位新总统上任时，通常会发生一些变化，这些变化可能通过签署法案成为法律或通过行政命令实现。自唐纳德·特朗普总统在八个多月前就职以来，我们见证了一系列对社会保障的调整，以及他标志性的税收和支出法案——“宏伟美丽法案” 的通过。</p>
</div><p>While Trump's big, beautiful bill introduced a number of tax breaks for select groups, including a higher standard tax deduction for eligible seniors from 2025 through 2028, and partial deductions for tips and overtime pay for eligible workers during the same four-year timeline, it also removed some important benefits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特朗普的宏伟美丽法案为特定群体引入了一些税收减免，包括从 2025 年到 2028 年为符合条件的老年人提供更高的标准税收扣除，以及在同一四年时间内为符合条件的工人提供小费和加班费的部分扣除，但它也取消了一些重要的福利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835371%2Fpresident-donald-trump-white-house-photo-state-union-congress.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>President Trump delivering his State of the Union address. Image source: Official White House Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统发表国情咨文演讲。图片来源：官方白宫照片。</p>
</div><p>Specifically, Donald Trump's law changes the fortunes of the electric-vehicle (EV) industry and its leading pure-play manufacturers, which includes <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.61%), <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -2.15%), and <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 0.56%), as of today, Sept. 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具体来说，唐纳德·特朗普的法律改变了电动汽车（EV）行业及其主要纯电动制造商的命运，包括 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 0.61%)、<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN -2.15%) 和 <strong>Lucid Group</strong>(LCID 0.56%)，截至今天，9 月 30 日。</p>
</div><h2>EV makers bid adieu to an important dangling carrot</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电动汽车制造商告别一个重要的诱饵</h2>
</div><p>Among the laundry list of tax and credit adjustments in the president's big, beautiful bill is a newly shortened timeline that ends the $7,500 tax credit consumers received when purchasing a qualifying new EV or plug-in hybrid, as well as the $4,000 credit when buying a used EV. This EV credit was available to new vans, SUVs, and trucks priced below a manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) of $80,000, as well as new sedans with an MSRP of no more than $55,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在总统的宏伟美丽法案中，税收和信贷调整的清单中有一个新缩短的时间表，结束了消费者在购买符合条件的新电动汽车或插电式混合动力车时获得的 7500 美元税收抵免，以及购买二手电动汽车时获得的 4000 美元抵免。这个电动汽车抵免适用于建议零售价（MSRP）低于 80,000 美元的新面包车、SUV 和卡车，以及 MSRP 不超过 55,000 美元的新轿车。</p>
</div><p>Though this credit (officially known as the Clean Vehicle Credit) was initially slated to end in 2032, based on the Inflation Reduction Act, Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill brings this new EV purchase credit to an end today, Sept. 30. Qualifying new vehicles purchased after today will no longer be eligible for the $7,500 credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这个抵免（正式称为清洁车辆抵免）最初计划在 2032 年结束，但根据《通货膨胀削减法》，唐纳德·特朗普的宏伟美丽法案今天（9 月 30 日）结束了这个新的电动汽车购买抵免。今天之后购买的符合条件的新车辆将不再有资格获得 7500 美元的抵免。</p>
</div><p>This EV credit applied to a significant percentage of the vehicles Tesla sells, including its Model 3 Sedan, all-wheel drive Model X SUV, single and dual motor Cybertruck, and multiple variants of the Model Y SUV. While Rivian's and Lucid's EVs are generally priced above the MSRP range where tax credits end, both companies had been angling leases of upcoming models as a way to take advantage of the $7,500 EV credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个电动汽车抵免适用于特斯拉销售的相当大比例的车辆，包括其 Model 3 轿车、全轮驱动的 Model X SUV、单电机和双电机的 Cybertruck，以及多种型号的 Model Y SUV。虽然 Rivian 和 Lucid 的电动汽车通常定价高于税收抵免结束的 MSRP 范围，但这两家公司一直在通过即将推出的车型租赁来利用 7500 美元的电动汽车抵免。</p>
</div><p>This EV credit was akin to a dangling carrot that allowed pure-play electric-vehicle manufacturers to be more price-competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Undercutting traditional ICE vehicles on price is viewed as a borderline necessity with EV charging infrastructure still somewhat lacking on a nationwide basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个电动汽车抵免就像一个悬而未决的诱饵，使纯电动汽车制造商在与内燃机（ICE）车辆的价格竞争中更具竞争力。由于全国范围内的电动汽车充电基础设施仍然相对不足，降低传统内燃机车辆的价格被视为一种近乎必要的策略。</p>
</div><p>Without this upfront cost advantage, it's likely that future buyers will opt for traditional gas- and diesel-powered vehicles due to the availability of ICE fueling infrastructure and opportunity cost. Whereas it takes just a few minutes to refuel an ICE vehicle, it can take an hour to a full day, depending on the type of charger used, to juice up an EV.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有了这种前期成本优势，未来的买家可能会选择传统的汽油和柴油动力车辆，因为内燃机的加油基础设施更为普遍，机会成本也更低。与内燃机车辆加油只需几分钟相比，充电电动汽车可能需要一个小时到一天的时间，具体取决于使用的充电器类型。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUzNzEvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835371%2Ftsla-model-3-driving-down-wintery-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>But wait -- there's more bad news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但等等——还有更多坏消息</h2>
</div><p>However, ending this lucrative tax credit that incentivized the purchase of EVs isn't the only way Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill is disrupting pure-play EV manufacturers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，结束这一激励购买电动汽车的丰厚税收抵免并不是唐纳德·特朗普的宏伟美丽法案对纯电动汽车制造商造成干扰的唯一方式。</p>
</div><p>When the president signed his flagship tax and spending bill into law on July 4, 2025, it put an end to corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) fines, as well as retroactively eliminated fines for 2022 model years and all subsequent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当总统在 2025 年 7 月 4 日签署他的标志性税收和支出法案成为法律时，结束了企业平均燃油经济性（CAFE）罚款，并追溯性地取消了 2022 年及所有后续年份的罚款。</p>
</div><p>CAFE regulations represent the standard of how far vehicles must travel on a gallon of fuel. These figures, which are set by the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, are designed to promote more fuel-efficient vehicles over time and lessen the reliance on fossil fuels. Automakers that failed to meet these standards were subject to fines. With CAFE civil penalties removed, courtesy of Trump's law, there's no longer any financial incentive for automakers to meet sky-high mile-per-gallon targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CAFE 法规代表了车辆在每加仑燃料上必须行驶的标准。这些数据由国家公路交通安全管理局设定，旨在促进更高燃油效率的车辆，并减少对化石燃料的依赖。未能满足这些标准的汽车制造商将面临罚款。由于特朗普的法律取消了 CAFE 的民事处罚，汽车制造商不再有经济动力去满足高得离谱的每加仑英里数目标。</p>
</div><p>This is almost certain to have an adverse impact on the ability of Tesla, Rivian Automotive, and Lucid Group to generate profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这几乎肯定会对特斯拉、Rivian Automotive 和 Lucid Group 的盈利能力产生不利影响。</p>
</div><p>Government agencies provide automotive regulatory credits to these pure-play EV manufacturers, which sell these tax credits to legacy automakers that are short of compliance targets. For Tesla especially, selling these tax credits plays a key role in its profitability. Without regulatory credits, Elon Musk's company would have reported a pre-tax loss during the first quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府机构向这些纯电动汽车制造商提供汽车监管信用，这些制造商将这些税收抵免出售给未达到合规目标的传统汽车制造商。对于特斯拉而言，出售这些税收抵免在其盈利能力中发挥了关键作用。如果没有监管信用，埃隆·马斯克的公司在 2025 年第一季度将报告税前亏损。</p>
</div><p>With the teeth behind CAFE regulations removed by the big, beautiful bill, the market for automotive regulatory credits in the U.S. is going to be severely depressed. It has the potential to expose the fact that Wall Street's EV darling, Tesla, has been consistently generating more than half of its pre-tax income from unsustainable and/or non-innovative sources, such as selling automotive regulatory credits and earning interest income on its cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着宏伟美丽法案取消了 CAFE 法规的约束，美国汽车监管信用的市场将受到严重打击。这可能暴露出华尔街的电动汽车宠儿特斯拉一直在持续地从不可持续和/或非创新的来源中产生超过一半的税前收入，例如出售汽车监管信用和从现金中获得的利息收入。</p>
</div><p>It'll also minimize regulatory tax credit revenue for Rivian and Lucid. Whereas Tesla has at least been profitable on a recurring basis for five consecutive years (with the help of automotive regulatory credits), Rivian and Lucid continue to lose money hand over fist as they ramp up operations and attempt to carve out their own unique niches in the automotive marketplace. Despite substantial cash piles for both companies and brand-name financial backing, long-term success is far from a guarantee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也将减少 Rivian 和 Lucid 的监管税收抵免收入。尽管特斯拉在过去五年中至少持续盈利（得益于汽车监管信用），但 Rivian 和 Lucid 在扩大运营并试图在汽车市场中开辟自己独特的利基时，仍然在不断亏损。尽管这两家公司拥有可观的现金储备和知名的金融支持，但长期成功远非保证。</p>
</div><p>Though I wouldn't go so far as to say Donald Trump drove a dagger through the heart of the EV industry, his actions are almost certain to thin the herd and make it considerably more difficult for pure-play electric-vehicle makers to compete with traditional ICE vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我不会说唐纳德·特朗普对电动车行业造成了致命打击，但他的行为几乎肯定会使竞争者减少，并使纯电动车制造商与传统内燃机汽车竞争变得更加困难。</p>
</div>

Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Will Have Their Fortunes Changed Forever Today, Sept. 30, Courtesy of President Donald Trump

- 特朗普签署的税法削减了电动车购车税收优惠。  
- 取消 CAFE 罚款将影响电动车制造商的盈利能力。  
- 未来电动车竞争力可能下降，传统燃油车更具吸引力。  

特斯拉、Rivian 和 Lucid 的命运将在今天 9 月 30 日因特朗普总统而被永久改变