<p>良好的指引对于 <strong>联合包裹</strong>（UPS 0.87%）的 135,000 辆车队每天将数百万包裹送到正确地点至关重要。但这家包裹递送巨头的股价却走向了错误的方向。UPS 的股价在过去五年中暴跌了大约 50%，并且自 2022 年初的高点以来下跌超过 60%。</p>
<p>有时如此陡峭的下跌表明投资者应该寻找其他机会。然而，显著的回调也可能带来很好的买入机会。你应该在 UPS 股价低于 90 美元时买入吗？</p>
<h2>深入了解 UPS</h2>
<p>至少从表面上看，购买 UPS 的价格似乎是合适的。这只被打压的股票的前瞻市盈率仅为 11.2。这个低倍数可能被许多投资者视为一个便宜的机会。</p>
<p>然而，其他人可能会担心 UPS 可能是一个价值陷阱。该公司在 2025 年第二季度的收入同比下降了 2.7%。调整后的稀释每股收益下降了 13.4%。UPS 仍面临一些严重的挑战。由于宏观经济的不确定性，该公司在第二季度的更新中没有给出收入或营业利润的指导。</p>
<p>这种不确定性主要集中在特朗普政府的关税政策上。UPS 首席财务官 Brian Dykes 在公司的第二季度财报电话会议上透露，美国的贸易政策导致 5 月和 6 月中美之间的货运量下降了大约 35%。这尤其成问题，因为这是 UPS 最盈利的运输路线。</p>
<p>美国的小包裹市场也面临压力。UPS 首席执行官 Carol Tomé在第二季度的更新中指出，消费者信心 “接近历史低点”。她还提到美国制造业活动疲软是一个阻力。</p>
<h2>比表面看起来更好的故事？</h2>
<p>尽管 UPS 面临许多不确定性，但这只股票可能提供一个比表面看起来更好的故事。首先，我认为管理层的一个有争议的举动可能在长期内会带来回报。</p>
<p>去年，UPS 宣布计划到 2026 年底将其 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.08%）的运输量削减超过 50%。考虑到亚马逊是（并且仍然是）UPS 最大的客户，这一决定对一些观察者来说似乎是疯狂的。</p>
<p>然而，这一举动背后的基本逻辑是合理的。UPS 为亚马逊递送的许多货物利润率较低。消除这一运输量将使这家包裹递送巨头显著降低成本结构，并在此过程中实际提高利润率。由于亚马逊的减少和其他效率举措，UPS 预计在 2025 年全年将削减 35 亿美元的开支。</p>
<p>与此同时，该公司正瞄准更高利润率的业务。特别是，UPS 专注于复杂的医疗物流，这代表着大约 820 亿美元的可寻址市场。该公司希望在 2025 年底之前完成对 Andlauer Healthcare Group 的收购。Andlauer 是一家为北美医疗行业提供物流和专业冷链运输解决方案的加拿大公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjkveW91bmctd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjkveW91bmctd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>UPS 股价低于 90 美元时值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>我认为增长型投资者不会觉得 UPS 的股票有吸引力。然而，即使在公司没有面临当前的逆风时情况也是如此。</p>
<p>另一方面，UPS 可能是价值投资者的不错选择。这只股票的市盈率较低。我确实预计 UPS 的底线在未来会改善（尽管宏观经济的不确定性可能会持续一段时间）。</p>
<p>如果你是收入投资者，UPS 提供了 7.8% 的丰厚前瞻性股息收益率。董事会会决定削减股息吗？也许，但目前看来这并不在计划之内。Tomé在第二季度的财报电话会议中直面这一问题，表示：“我们知道股息对我们的投资者有多重要，你们可以信任我们会保持稳定和增长的股息。”</p>
<p>那么 UPS 股价低于 90 美元时值得购买吗？答案取决于你的投资风格。</p>

联合包裹

<p>UPS 的股票在五年内下跌了 50%，并且从 2022 年初的高点下跌超过 60%，这引发了对其价值的质疑。尽管前瞻市盈率较低，为 11.2，但 2025 年第二季度的收入下降了 2.7%，公司面临美国贸易政策和疲弱消费者信心的挑战。然而，UPS 计划减少对亚马逊的货运，以改善利润率，并且目标是更高利润率的医疗物流。虽然成长型投资者可能会避开 UPS，但价值投资者可能会觉得它具有吸引力，尤其是其 7.8% 的股息收益率。是否购买的决定取决于个人的投资风格</p>

<p>Good directions are critical for <strong>United Parcel Service</strong>'s (UPS 0.87%) fleet of 135,000 vehicles to deliver millions of packages to the right location every day. But the package delivery giant is going in the wrong direction with its share price. UPS stock has plunged roughly 50% over the last five years and is down more than 60% from its high set in early 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>良好的指引对于 <strong>联合包裹</strong>（UPS 0.87%）的 135,000 辆车队每天将数百万包裹送到正确地点至关重要。但这家包裹递送巨头的股价却走向了错误的方向。UPS 的股价在过去五年中暴跌了大约 50%，并且自 2022 年初的高点以来下跌超过 60%。</p>
</div><p>Sometimes such steep declines indicate that investors should look elsewhere. However, significant pullbacks can also present great buying opportunities. Should you buy UPS stock while it's below $90?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有时如此陡峭的下跌表明投资者应该寻找其他机会。然而，显著的回调也可能带来很好的买入机会。你应该在 UPS 股价低于 90 美元时买入吗？</p>
</div><h2>Looking under UPS' hood</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>深入了解 UPS</h2>
</div><p>At least at first glance, the price seems to be right for buying UPS. The beaten-down stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 11.2. That low multiple could be viewed as a bargain by many investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少从表面上看，购买 UPS 的价格似乎是合适的。这只被打压的股票的前瞻市盈率仅为 11.2。这个低倍数可能被许多投资者视为一个便宜的机会。</p>
</div><p>However, others might be afraid that UPS could be a value trap. The company's revenue declined 2.7% year over year in the second quarter of 2025. Its adjusted diluted earnings per share sank 13.4%. UPS continues to face some serious challenges. There's so much macroeconomic uncertainty that the company didn't give revenue or operating profit guidance in its Q2 update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，其他人可能会担心 UPS 可能是一个价值陷阱。该公司在 2025 年第二季度的收入同比下降了 2.7%。调整后的稀释每股收益下降了 13.4%。UPS 仍面临一些严重的挑战。由于宏观经济的不确定性，该公司在第二季度的更新中没有给出收入或营业利润的指导。</p>
</div><p>Much of that uncertainty centers around the Trump administration's tariffs. UPS CFO Brian Dykes revealed in the company's Q2 earnings call that U.S. trade policies led to a decline of roughly 35% in shipments between China and the U.S. in May and June. That's especially problematic because this is UPS' most profitable shipping lane.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种不确定性主要集中在特朗普政府的关税政策上。UPS 首席财务官 Brian Dykes 在公司的第二季度财报电话会议上透露，美国的贸易政策导致 5 月和 6 月中美之间的货运量下降了大约 35%。这尤其成问题，因为这是 UPS 最盈利的运输路线。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. small package market is also under pressure. UPS CEO Carol Tomé noted in the Q2 update that consumer sentiment was &#34;near historic lows.&#34; She also referenced weak U.S. manufacturing activity as a headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的小包裹市场也面临压力。UPS 首席执行官 Carol Tomé在第二季度的更新中指出，消费者信心 “接近历史低点”。她还提到美国制造业活动疲软是一个阻力。</p>
</div><h2>A better story than meets the eye?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比表面看起来更好的故事？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the question marks hanging over UPS, the stock could offer a better story than meets the eye. For one thing, I think a controversial move by management could pay off over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 UPS 面临许多不确定性，但这只股票可能提供一个比表面看起来更好的故事。首先，我认为管理层的一个有争议的举动可能在长期内会带来回报。</p>
</div><p>Last year, UPS announced plans to cut its <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.08%) shipment volumes by more than 50% by the end of 2026. This decision seemed crazy to some observers, considering that Amazon was (and still is) UPS' biggest customer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，UPS 宣布计划到 2026 年底将其 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.08%）的运输量削减超过 50%。考虑到亚马逊是（并且仍然是）UPS 最大的客户，这一决定对一些观察者来说似乎是疯狂的。</p>
</div><p>However, the underlying logic behind the move makes sense. Many of the shipments UPS delivered for Amazon had low margins. Eliminating this volume will allow the package delivery giant to reduce its cost structure significantly and actually boost profit margins in the process. Because of the Amazon glide-down and other efficiency initiatives, UPS expects to cut expenses by $3.5 billion in full-year 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一举动背后的基本逻辑是合理的。UPS 为亚马逊递送的许多货物利润率较低。消除这一运输量将使这家包裹递送巨头显著降低成本结构，并在此过程中实际提高利润率。由于亚马逊的减少和其他效率举措，UPS 预计在 2025 年全年将削减 35 亿美元的开支。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the company is targeting higher-margin business. In particular, UPS is focusing on complex healthcare logistics, which represents a total addressable market of around $82 billion. The company hopes to close on its acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group by the end of 2025. Andlauer is a Canadian provider of logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions for the North American healthcare sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，该公司正瞄准更高利润率的业务。特别是，UPS 专注于复杂的医疗物流，这代表着大约 820 亿美元的可寻址市场。该公司希望在 2025 年底之前完成对 Andlauer Healthcare Group 的收购。Andlauer 是一家为北美医疗行业提供物流和专业冷链运输解决方案的加拿大公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU0MjkveW91bmctd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835429%2Fyoung-woman-looking-at-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is UPS stock a buy while it's below $90?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UPS 股价低于 90 美元时值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>I don't think growth investors will find UPS stock appealing at all. However, that would have been the case even when the company didn't face its current headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为增长型投资者不会觉得 UPS 的股票有吸引力。然而，即使在公司没有面临当前的逆风时情况也是如此。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, UPS could be a pretty good pick for value investors. The stock is trading at a low earnings multiple. I do expect UPS' bottom line to improve in the future (although the macroeconomic uncertainty could linger for a while).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，UPS 可能是价值投资者的不错选择。这只股票的市盈率较低。我确实预计 UPS 的底线在未来会改善（尽管宏观经济的不确定性可能会持续一段时间）。</p>
</div><p>If you're an income investor, UPS offers a juicy forward dividend yield of 7.8%. Could the board of directors decide to cut the dividend? Maybe, but that doesn't seem in the cards for now. Tomé addressed this issue head-on in the Q2 earnings call, stating, &#34;We know how important the dividend is to our investors, and you have our commitment to a stable and growing dividend.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你是收入投资者，UPS 提供了 7.8% 的丰厚前瞻性股息收益率。董事会会决定削减股息吗？也许，但目前看来这并不在计划之内。Tomé在第二季度的财报电话会议中直面这一问题，表示：“我们知道股息对我们的投资者有多重要，你们可以信任我们会保持稳定和增长的股息。”</p>
</div><p>So is UPS stock a buy while it's below $90? The answer depends on your investing style.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么 UPS 股价低于 90 美元时值得购买吗？答案取决于你的投资风格。</p>
</div>

在联合包裹的股价低于 90 美元时，你是否应该购买该股票？